Scenario By: Jake "Kommissar" Keyes

Date: September 19th 2025
Location: South China Sea
Playable Sides: ASEAN
Duration: 1 Days

Traditionally viewed as a regional economic bloc, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) have begun conducting regional military exercises. Initially, these exercises focused on humanitarian and disaster relief operations, but have gradually evolved to include more conventional military training and readiness. Spurred on by American calls to reject Chinese expansionism in the South China Sea, ASEAN has sought to bolster its collective defense capabilities.

Historically ASEAN has been sharply split between pro-Beijing and pro-Western factions, with member states often at odds over how to approach regional security challenges. This divide has complicated efforts to present a unified front against external threats, particularly from China, which has sought to expand its influence in the region. It is in this tense setting that ASEAN has decided to conduct its yearly military exercises: ASEAN Exercise 2025 (ASEX 25).

Unlike previous ASEX exercises, ASEX-25 is to be held off the coast of Da Nang, Vietnam, in waters disputed by China's so called "10-Dash Line." While unpopular with some member states, a growing anti-Bejing coalition led by Vietnam has successfully lobbied for the exercise to take place in this contentious area, viewing it as a critical opportunity to assert ASEAN's maritime rights and challenge Chinese assertiveness.

Beijing has reiterated their claims to the South China Sea and observers have noted an uptick in Chinese Maritime Militia and Coast Guard activity near the Paracel Islands, an archipelago claimed by both China and Vietnam. The situation remains fluid, with potential flashpoints that could escalate into broader conflicts....