Duel For The Golan 85 Background

The Scenarios are based on HPS Modern Campaigns
Danube Front
Fulda Gap "Prepared

And

MidEast 67
The Syrian-Israeli War 85

"Some dammed foolish  thing in the Middle East!"

Al Sandrik
                                                                                                                                                                                
This scenario examines what is, in my personal opinion, the most likely scenario for a Warsaw Pact invasion of the West. That would be a period of tension with a significant troop build up by both sides prior to hostilities. Why do I say this? Well the while the Soviet/WP "Bolt from the Blue" invasion from barracks and exercise areas to the battlefield may sound good the fact is the Pact never attempted it or even seemed to seriously consider it for that matter. The fact is the Soviets, and by extension the Warsaw Pact, would have had to have been significantly provoked to have launched an attack on the West. Consider that Berlin 1948, Poland 1955, Hungary 1956, Berlin 1962, Cuba 1963, The Six Day War, Czechoslovakia 1968, the Yom Kippur War 1973, Poland & Afghanistan in 1979/1980, and Operation RYAN 1982 all passed without the much feared "Bolt Out of the Blue" attack (and in some cases with both sides going out of their way to avoid confrontation)! So what then would have provoked an invasion, well thank God we'll never know, but here goes my attempt at a build up scenario, feel free to disagree with me if you like (and I'm sure many will)
 
 Late May 1985: DIA satellite analysts note a build up of Soviet forces and logistic sites in Afghanistan and along the Iranian border. Suspecting a potential repeat of the Afghan invasion CENTCOM is placed on an elevated level of alert.
 
 June 5th: Iranian aircraft attack a Japanese supertanker near the Straits of Hormuz. Aircraft from the USS Midway engage them and shoot down 3 of 4 Iranian F-5s. The next day Iranian and U.S. Naval assets engage in the Arabian Gulf with an Iranian corvette sunk and a frigate damaged.
 
 June 8th: The Soviet Union protests American "Adventurism" in the Gulf region and demands UN intervention to end the Iran-Iraq War. They hint that unilateral Soviet action might become necessary to ensure freedom on navigation in the Gulf and the free flow of oil.
 
 June 12th: A Soviet Surface Action Group led by a Slava Class missile cruiser enters the Gulf while a Sam Kotlin Class destroyer trails the Midway. This task force exits into the Indian Ocean the next day, but they made the point that the Soviets can and will enter the Gulf at will.
 
 Mid-June: Soviet units near Iran continue to increase their readiness with Category B divisions identified forming a second echelon. 
 
 June 19th: The American Secretary of Defense shows Saudi King Faud satellite imagery of the Soviet build up. Secretly both the Israelis and Jordanian Intelligence agencies confirm the build up and by the end of the day American CENTCOM forces are invited into the Kingdom.
 
 June 21st the Ready Battalion of the 82nd Airborne Division lands in King Khalid Military City signaling the beginning of the American CENTCOM build up.  Through the beginning of July American forces pour into the Gulf region, however, the Soviet build up also continues. The USS Midway now identifies at least one Charlie I and a Juliet class submarines in her Operations Area.
 
 July 4th: As Americans celebrate Independence Day, Soviet ground forces cross into Iran with a two air assault divisions landing in and around Tehran. American President Ronald Reagan announces that American forces would enter Iran and would resist any Soviet movement into the oil fields or Bandar Abbas.  
 
 July 5th: Elements of the 82nd Airborne Division along with the 24th Marine Amphibious Unit land in Bandar Abbas against light Iranian opposition. 
 
 July 8th: Soviet and American fighters briefly engage each other without loss over Iran. Most of a Marine Amphibious Brigade and the 82nd Airborne are now entrenched in Iran. The 24th Mech Division's equipment departed Savannah headed for the Gulf. By early August CENTCOM would have a significant strike capability.
 
 July 10th: An S3A Viking, from the USS Midway, detects a Victor III SSGN trailing the carrier. As they ping the sub with an active sono-buoy the water explodes as two missiles launch on the CV. Reacting quickly a torpedo is launched sinking the sub; however, the carrier is struck by both missiles setting fires in the hanger bay. While she would not sink the Midway departed to Japan for repairs. All American forces worldwide were placed in DEFCON 4 with naval forces in DEFCON 3. 
 
 July 12th: The Warsaw Pact declares an exclusion zone around Berlin and halts all air and ground movement into the city. NATO protests over the next several days go unanswered.
 
 July 15th: Conditions in Berlin worsen as food and fresh water begins to run out.
 
 July 16th: Soviet and American ground forces make contact in Iran and a brief firefight and artillery duel ensue. Quiet quickly settles over the forward area of battle, as for the time being both sides are reluctant to initiate a general ground war. The Pope calls for calm and offers himself to mediate a disengagement.
 
 July 18th United, NATO Ministers demand an end to both the Soviet invasion of Iran and the Berlin Blockade. Additionally, they call for a return to positions held by all armed forces on June 1, 1985. Moscow has until Midnight July 20th to signal Soviet compliance.
 
 July 19th: Soviet Category B and C divisions begin a general mobilization.
 
 July 20th: Two Soviet Motorized Rife Divisions attack American positions in Iran, leading to a general American-Soviet conflict in that country. An American B-52 Strike from Diego Garcia that night hits Tehran International Airport destroying many Soviet transport aircraft and causing casualties amongst Soviet airborne forces. NATO announces the activation of REFORGER for all NATO nations and the deployment of forces to their General Defense Positions beginning July 21st.
 
 July 23rd: Media pictures from Berlin show the people lining up for the few food stocks that remain and hungry children in the streets. NATO attempts a British air drop but the unescorted transport aircraft are turned back by Soviet fighters. The American 9th Air Force rapidly deploys to its European bases by the 25th. Elements of the 4th Mechanized Division begin to land as the first American REFORGER forces arrive.
 
 August 1st The Soviet Slava Surface Action Group in the Indian Ocean is attacked and destroyed by aircraft from the USS Nimitz; however, an American destroyer is torpedoed south of Cuba on the 2nd. President Reagan announces that American forces would engage Soviet forces worldwide with the exception of Europe, American Forces go to DEFCON 2. An uneasy calm resides along the Inter-German Frontier as NATO and Warsaw Pact forces continue to deploy to their forward positions. Soviet generals demand an immediate invasion of the West; however, understanding the Warsaw Pact war plans include the massive first use of nuclear weapons the Kremlin declines. 
 
 August 3-5: Intense diplomatic discussions continue in the UN and through back channels to defuse the growing American-Soviet War and the NATO-Warsaw Pact confrontation. REFORGER continues at a rapidly growing pace with an American escorted NATO convoy attacked south of Iceland. As more NATO forces deploy to their General Defense Positions Soviet generals see the correlation of forces swinging more and more toward NATO's favor. Again they demand immediate action against NATO and once again are rebuffed.
 
 August 9th: Conditions in the City of Berlin have now become intolerable. NATO forms a multinational ground force under British command to break the blockade. The Warsaw Pact is given until Midnight August 11th to end the blockade or face NATO offensive action. Finally the Kremlin gives in to the generals ordering them to destroy NATO before this miscalculation brings down the Soviet Union.
 
 August 10th 6 a.m. Soviet forces strike west  

August 10th-17th The Israelis closely watch events unfolding in Europe and Syria. Although they know they are likely to be drawn in they only partially mobilize hoping to stay out. That is until the first Syrian artillery and airstrikes are felt on the Golan! 
 
Overall feel free to disagree with me on the how's and whys of this scenario, but I believe history is on my side as we were toe-to-toe in Germany for most of my life and frankly it never really came close to happening! Al.sandrik@gmail.com
