A Japanese invasion of Hawaii

[Curtis Lemay]

Unfortunately for your "US is clueless " thesis, everything your Quora "experts " have written is wrong:

They were clueless about a raid on Pearl Harbor.

The vast majority of the Japanese pilots at Pearl Harbor had no combat experience - most of the Japanese pilots in China were Army, not Navy ;

For sure they had huge flight time hours.

US pre-war pilot training was at least equal, if not superior, to Japanese pilot training;
Neither the P-40 nor the F4F were at all "visibly inferior " to the Zero, nor were US training and tactics inferior to Japanese standards;
The US had been preparing for war for over a year before Pearl Harbor, they didn’t just start on 7 December;

The above says otherwise. The US were on a peacetime basis. The Japs were at war.

The total time of the raid was 90 minutes, not "less than 15 minutes";

I'm sure the expert was refering to the time over a specific airfield, not the total raid.

A total of 14 US P-36 and P-40 fighters were able to get airborne during the second wave attack, the Japanese had 36 Zeroes, yet only shot down 2 US planes while the US pilots were credited with 11 kills.

Results depend upon the mission. The mission was bombing not air superiority.

Instead of relying on internet myths and 30-year-old PC game mechanics, might I suggest you read some of the more recent WW2 authors (Lundstom, Parshall, Zimm, etc).

I'm relying on professors and USAF experts.

[Curtis Lemay]

To put it as simply as possible - without any details you have no plan.
Details include:
Complete OOB (air, land, naval);
Chronology (when does the invasion force leave Japan / what route do they take/ how often and where do they refuel / when and where does KB stop to allow the APDs to get 12 hours ahead/ when does the APDs force start their run in to Maui / when does the landing take place/ where are the APDs after the landing/ when does the invasion force attack the airfield/ where is KB after the raid/ where is the Midway invasion force/ when is Midway invaded)
Options ( what to do if the Japanese are detected)
Follow-up ( how are the invasion forces supplied/supported)

Again, without answering any of the above questions with any details there is no way to determine whether or not your plan will succeed.

I've answered most of that over and over.

Names of units are just chrome. Planes are what matters and I'm taking 32 Zeros and 48 Bettys from Luzon - two groups. The Bettys are delivered from Eniwetok. The Zeros come from the carriers initially, but replaced by the ones from Luzon when Midway is secured.

The invasion force sails with the Raid Fleet as historical. They refuel the same as the other DDs in that raid. They stop a couple of days out from the raid launch. After topping off, the APDs head out. The landing takes place when the APDs get to Maui after starting out at dusk 100 miles out - about midnight. Attacks take place once the raid begins. The Midway invasion takes place when the carriers get there coming from Pearl.

The invasion forces are delivered supplies when the APDs return after the raid begins. The ground crews and their supplies are also delivered then.

What to do if detected depends upon when that happens. Early enough and the whole thing can be aborted. Late enough and it won't matter - the US won't have time to respond.

[Curtis Lemay]

I think Curtis Lemay has answered this. These questions are trivial because the Japanese can work it out. The problem Curtis Lemay’s plan has is that when he does try and add some detail in, he provides contradictory comments. For example I notice that the point I made about the contradiction over abort times has simply been ignored. As said, this plan needs to be sold with the following: unless absolutely everything goes right, and on time, then the 40 precious Bettys and the almost 300 even more precious aircrew are on a suicide mission. Who is going to sign up for that?

This is a risk-reward option. The risk is low and the reward is huge. If they actually have to ditch, they can do so near a Jap ship. Of course, that's only if the winds are so adverse that they have to transfer unarmed. If armed, they can trade themselves for a US DD or CA - a pretty good bargan.

There is just so much that is ignored here or glossed over. For example in answer to the comment about how 2,000 Japanese soldiers and their equipment are to remain hidden for 24 hours in the event of an abort, Curtis Lemay simply says there is plenty of jungle on Maui. Well that’s great..... but also totally meaningless without knowing where that ‘jungle’ is in relation to the beach....But there is no detail on that.

The pathfinders will have that scoped. Regardless, Japanese were superb at camo. Anyone who was on Guadalcanal can atest.

The timing of the invasion is set by the carriers and it being a Sunday. The weather, the tidal conditions etc. at the Maui invasion beach is therefore what it is (not that we know anything about the invasion beach and how remote it is, how suitable is it to take landing craft etc). Now fortunately for the Japanese, poor weather may assist the run in to Maui....but...its not going to help with getting thousands of troops ashore from the destroyers.. in complete darkness....in a limited timeframe....and without any noise.

All it would take is one accident, an overturned landing craft (dead Japanese troops available for washing up the next day), a destroyer colision or whatever, to ruin everything. But apparently all these questions are trivial...

Again, they have pathfinders guiding them. Dead troops wouldn't be found in time to alert Pearl.

[Curtis Lemay]

We keep being told about this magical 5,000 tons being delivered to fuel and arm the Bettys and Zeros. Again there is no detail provided on where these ships are going to dock, how the cargo is to be delivered to the airfield and what timeframe. There is no acknowledgement that it is now day time, there are US vessels at laihana Roads and (based on 7 December records) there will almost certainly be a US submarine or destroyer or two in the vicinity (this is of course uncertain but in deciding on whether to give this plan the green light, the Japanese would be aware of that).

So these Japanese troops have to quickly secure the airfield, secure a port (wherever that is and that can take the destroyers), suppress the defenders. All this with no transport and only light weaponry. And if all this goes without a hitch....

There is no acknowledgement that for many, many hours, the surviving Bettys will be sat vulnerable on the airstrip with no fuel, no meaningful AA, and no fighter cover, and hoping not to get attacked by any aircraft that Oahu can get in the air.... the surviving carrier planes for example...

To repeat: They only have to get about 50 tons off to mission the Bettys. That's not going to take long.

[Curtis Lemay]

My understanding was that of the 72 planes on Enterprise, only 24 were flown to Pearl on December 7, 1941. 11 were shot down. That leaves 48 on board.

Sorry, what has this got to do with the scenario being discussed?
Peacetime SOP was that all flyable aircraft from a CV would be expected to be landed ashore if the carrier was going to moor in harbor. And I should point out the Enterprise never entered PH on Dec 7th so the fact that it may have still had aircraft on board on that day is irrelevant.

Yet our historical example from the raid contradicts that.

Nevertheless, this site (Quora) answers a couple of questions about US carriers being in port or running into the Jap fleet:

The quora information has no references. It appears to be opinion of no relevant qualification and some of it is clearly factually wrong.

Not getting any references from you for anything either. These are professors and USAF experts.

Their planes are going to be caught on the ground without ammo and decimated.

Maybe, maybe not. As previously stated, Luke Field on Ford Island did not suffer heavy damage on Dec 7th. It was considered still "open for business" immediately after the first wave (and the second). The historic attacks against the airfield were too small to have "decimated" the CAG groups had they been based there on Dec 7th. You would need to seriously change up the strike wave mix and objectives if you really want to seriously smack the CAGs. Get back to me if you ever get around to detailing the new KB strike schedule as I'm very interested in how all your objectives can be met.

Any that get airborne will be inferior both in planes and pilots.

As good as they were, the IJN CAG pilots and aircrew in their aircraft never demonstrated any clear superiority over their USN equivalents.

Note that the Lexington had F2As – not even F4Fs yet.

True dat.

Probably even what F4Fs were available were still unfamiliar to their pilots.

Wishful thinking. The Enterprise's fighter squadron had been using Wildcats since May '41 while the Saratoga's fighter squadron had done so since August, and that was long enough to develop the Thatch Weave.

The Thatch Weave wasn't even tested until Midway.

This meshes well with my long contention that the US was clueless and unprepared for war. The whole theme of this is a scathing view of US readiness.

Whatever you think of the US historical performance, you are yet to show how it could render them so utterly helpless that the Japanese in your scenario could effectively do what they wished without consequence.

You forget Clark Field.

[Curtis Lemay]

warspite1

I wondered what you meant by that and then I re-read Curtis Lemay’s response to KingHart. To be clear, it is being proposed that 2,000 men, landed on Maui in the evening of 6 December 1941, could remain in hiding there (if the raid had to be cancelled) and then picked up in secret in the evening of the 7 December 1941. No one at any point detects 12 destroyer sized vessels sailing around Maui at will. No one spots 2,000 enemy troops and their equipment just inland from a beach for 24 hours....

Maui is 727 square miles in area. Lots of Jungle.

And the "Jungle" was nowhere close to Puunene airfield. Let us know when you have the details as to roughly where the Japanese are going to land, how far and through what areas you believe they would move after landing, then how far from Puunene do you expect them to go into hiding and finally, what is their plan to then capture the airfield if they hear the "go" order.

They only need the jungle if the raid is canceled. The location of the airfield doesn't matter then. And the Japanese didn't need jungle to be invisible.

[Curtis Lemay]

Again no starting details. Just admit you can't show how your plan could work in real life and we can stop asking these trivial questions.

Again, it's too trivial to waste time on details only the Japanese would need to figure out. They can figure out the optimum time to top off and stop to wait for the APDs to get far enough ahead.

Sorry but now you're just doubling down on vague.

I've shown how the APDs get 12 hours and 150 miles to the southeast of the fleet. That's all that's necessary.

Are you serious? Or have you just not read up on the actual process used by the Japanese in the lead up to the historic raid?

The historical plan didn't have an abort option.

It did.

Not to abort the entire Pacific if the carriers are not in port.

Radios and code words are all that are needed.

Radios used from where? Maui? Oahu? Who tells Tokyo to spread the word that the mission is aborted?

Radios everywhere. Tokyo makes the abort decision. If it does, then it sends out the abort code words to all.

[Curtis Lemay]

In response to this Curtis Lemay pointed out that:

Operation Torch crossed the Atlantic. 18 days at sea.

All those soldiers have to do is stay in bed and smoke and drink and drink and smoke!

In response to the first comment I would ask him to look at the size of vessels the American troops crossed the Atlantic in, and then compare to the Japanese destroyer conversions he proposes to use on the raid. They simply don't compare in size - and I strongly suspect - in creature comforts.

With regards the second point, this is rather disappointing. Under the plan, these Japanese troops could have been on the cramped, destroyer conversions for months. Even with the circa three week time frame here, troops would have needed to exercise and maintain fitness and alertness. After all, at the end of all this, they were going to have to take an island in a matter of a couple of hours.....

Repeat: Operation Torch was at sea for 18 days! Clearly it isn't the issue you think it is. The APDs will have about the same space per man as the Torch ships had.

And as for the comment about the Zeros. Yes they lost nine, but more were damaged - some beyond repair. In this scenario, they would possibly have lost more given the extra aircraft on Oahu.

But even having circa 90 left for Midway is not the IJN's problem. Curtis Lemay's plan has effectively taken two front line carriers out of action. There is still new Midway, Wake, Darwin, the Indian Ocean Raid to come... or not. This plan is blunting the IJN's key weapon more than in real life.

Repeat: The Zeros left on Maui will be swapped out with the Luzon Zeros as soon as Midway is operational. From that point the carriers will have historical complements.

The US can take additional losses. The Japanese can't. It really is that simple. Even at the time of real Midway, the 1st Air Fleet were hugely down on aircraft. Yes I believe they were still operating full strength squadrons, but there were no (or very few) spare aircraft. This plan is simply making the Japanese situation worse when compared to real life.

This is massive risk for negligible reward.

Only if you ignore sinking TWO US CARRIERS and delaying US response by TWO YEARS!!!!

As a result of this plan, the Japanese have compromised the conquest of the NEI and given themselves a headache in the Eastern Pacific. Both will need more Japanese effort; the NEI because you’ve given the US in the PI more chance to intervene - and any delay is a problem. In doing this you have also weakened the Japanese forces in the PI available to counter.

If anything the NEI is facilitated via the forces released from the Luzon invasion. It is not compromised in any way.

In the Eastern Pacific, supplying, reinforcing and defending the aircraft you plonked on Maui will be pretty much impossible and will take a major fleet effort.

The inital supply delivery will last a month. Time enough to torch Pearl and the oil stocks. The planes can fly out if necessary. The troops will trade their lives for American ones if they can't be rescued.

Delaying the US response by two years? You’ve just shortened the war and the final date for victory for the Allies.

Nimitz disagrees with you.

[Curtis Lemay]

Will the naval aviation ground personnel be hiding out in the jungle too? Lugging along spare Type 91 aerial torpedoes, 250-kilogram bombs, crates of ammo and drums of fuel? Not mention all their tools, fuel pumps, generators, spare aircraft parts and equipment. I'm sure no one will notice all the drag marks and footsteps on the beach.

They would only be delivered upon the start of the raid. If the raid is canceled they sail away.

[warspite1]

If they actually have to ditch, they can do so near a Jap ship. Of course, that's only if the winds are so adverse that they have to transfer unarmed. If armed, they can trade themselves for a US DD or CA - a pretty good bargan.

warspite1

Another extraordinary set of claims.... this is a 15 hour flight.

The weather conditions can't be guaranteed.
Putting down in the sea is fraught with danger. How about at night or in a storm?
Which series of Japanese ships are going to be tracking the aircraft on their 15 hour flight? Do you envisage a relay of Japanese rescue vessels spread liberally along a line Marshalls-Oahu?
According to your earlier statement, an abort order could be given one hour before the raid. How much fuel do the Bettys have at this point? Some of those rescue ships better be close to the PI.....

They can trade themselves for an American ship? Well not if the abort order is the reason they are turning back. But the fact you even say this shows that the sacrifice of 40 Bettys and almost 300 aircrew for nothing is, according to you, not even a problem for the Japanese? This is plainly not the case.

[warspite1]

The pathfinders will have that scoped. Regardless, Japanese were superb at camo. Anyone who was on Guadalcanal can atest.

warspite1

It doesn't matter what these pathfinders have scoped. If the best landing beach is too far from a safe place to hide out then its too far. But the sentence underlined is priceless. I can imagine 2,000 Japanese troops (and their equipment) disguised as nuns on a field trip to the beach.....or perhaps lamposts in downtown Puunene, where they stand very still for 24 hours?

Erm.... wasn't Guadalcanal jungle? Or were their disguises so good they weren't spotted in the Solomon Islands jungle even when dressed as Mother Superior and her gang of nuns? Sorry I am unclear here.

Is there anything these supermen can't do? I must find me a Code of Bushido pill....

[warspite1]

Again, they have pathfinders guiding them. Dead troops wouldn't be found in time to alert Pearl.

warspite1

Can you elaborate on that please? How do these pathfinders stop two destroyers colliding in the pitch black - even more so if there is fog or a storm? How do they stop the boats taking the troops to the shore from capsizing? You know, normal landing craft accidents that can happen at any time.

By the way, who has trained these pathfinders? They sound brilliant!!

[warspite1]

We keep being told about this magical 5,000 tons being delivered to fuel and arm the Bettys and Zeros. Again there is no detail provided on where these ships are going to dock, how the cargo is to be delivered to the airfield and what timeframe. There is no acknowledgement that it is now day time, there are US vessels at laihana Roads and (based on 7 December records) there will almost certainly be a US submarine or destroyer or two in the vicinity (this is of course uncertain but in deciding on whether to give this plan the green light, the Japanese would be aware of that).

So these Japanese troops have to quickly secure the airfield, secure a port (wherever that is and that can take the destroyers), suppress the defenders. All this with no transport and only light weaponry. And if all this goes without a hitch....

There is no acknowledgement that for many, many hours, the surviving Bettys will be sat vulnerable on the airstrip with no fuel, no meaningful AA, and no fighter cover, and hoping not to get attacked by any aircraft that Oahu can get in the air.... the surviving carrier planes for example...

To repeat: They only have to get about 50 tons off to mission the Bettys. That's not going to take long.

warspite1

So please provide detail. 50 tons of what? What does this magic 50 provide in terms of the fuel, ammunition and bombs/torpedoes needed for 40 Bettys and 36 Zeros (less those already lost due to take off and landing accidents, shot down over Oahu, and getting lost on the way to Oahu - you know, ordinary operational stuff suffered by airforces). How much AA weaponry (and what type) is to be made available? Where is the port? Where is the airfield in relation to the invasion beach? How do the Japanese get the fuel and ammunition and bombs/torpedoes to the airfield? How long does all this take? The Japanese have no transport (hell, at the outset they have no airfield and no port). The Japanese are on a very tight timescale. Give us a timeline, give us some detail. Please. Without which this is just hot air.

I have heard it said the Japanese have pathfinders, and these are a cross between Superman, King Canute and the invisible man, but even so, there actually needs to be a workable plan here.

[warspite1]

And the Japanese didn't need jungle to be invisible.

warspite1

Is this side effects of the Code of Bushido pill? Always read the small print.....

[warspite1]

The APDs will have about the same space per man as the Torch ships had.

warspite1

Fair enough. Can you quote the dimensions of the troop ships that took US troops to Casablanca from the East Coast, and those of the Japanese destroyer conversion just to support your statement please?

[warspite1]

Repeat: The Zeros left on Maui will be swapped out with the Luzon Zeros as soon as Midway is operational. From that point the carriers will have historical complements.

warspite1

Or more likely the Zeros on Maui, unsupplied and with no AA defence, will be whittled down to nothing within days - assuming they even got to Maui. The Bettys won't last that long.

And no plan, no timetable has been put forward for the capture of Midway.

[warspite1]

Nimitz disagrees with you.

warspite1

Not at all. You see what the great Chester Nimitz was talking about (the Pearl raid) is not what I am talking about (your plan).

[warspite1]

Only if you ignore sinking TWO US CARRIERS and delaying US response by TWO YEARS!!!!

warspite1

Except the losses suffered by the Japanese, and the disclocation suffered to their plan for the SRA are so great that the inconvenience the US suffer while Oahu recovers and the defenders of Maui are destroyed means that two US carriers is a fair swap.

You've admitted yourself, the KB can't stay off Oahu. The Japanese can't reinforce or re-supply Maui with anything without major jeopardy for whatever is sent to try it. The first thing the USN will do is set up a submarine cordon around Maui.

Those units that did manage to land on Maui will soon wish they hadn't. Pearl will suffer barely any more damage (if any) than it did historically and Maui will be taken back by fresh troops from the mainland.

If only the Japanese had tried this in real life. Would have ended the war much earlier.

[warspite1]

The inital supply delivery will last a month. Time enough to torch Pearl and the oil stocks. The planes can fly out if necessary. The troops will trade their lives for American ones if they can't be rescued.

warspite1

Well if you detail a plan of action with a timetable we might be able to judge the likelihood of this supply delivery making it to Maui.

[warspite1]

Names of units are just chrome.

warspite1

Names are chrome if you want to be able to use the same units in two different places. If you want to put forward a coherent plan, names are kind of vital.