Seems like it was a good game and it is also a great AAR. Well done to both players.
I also like that tyronec was trying to play in a somewhat historical manner - I am not referring to where specifically he advanced (Caucasus etc), but rather the fact that he at least attempted to advance aggressively and blitzkrieg rather than being ahistorically methodical and slow and plodding. I think this game helps show that blitzkrieg is probably not the best strategy for Axis, but it is unfortunate that Axis is not more encouraged to play like this. It can make the game more exciting.
It is a shame that it ended, but (unlike some other games where IMO players prematurely quit) it is easy to see why tyronec had little choice but to give up. Axis cannot really counterattack well in heavy snow (at least in December and idk about later in winter) due to the huge pre-battle disruption (except with substantial numerical superiority and motorized units). If tyronec tried to rescue his ZOC locked units, the units trying to rescue them would have just ended up ZOC locked and subsequently isolated themselves. It can be impossible for Axis units to escape from encirclements and ZOC locks with winter heavy snow, and with binary isolation it is all or nothing and there is no recovering from it.
Tyronec already had way too few units to defend the long front line (though part of that is due to going into the Caucasus, especially with closed TBs he would be lacking counters regardless).
What Bread did around Orel is what I would call "swarming." Since Soviets have a lot more counters, they can simply swarm around the smaller number of Axis counters, and Axis is unable to counterattack all the Soviet counters because Axis does not have enough counters to do so. The heavy snow just makes it worse.
To me, this looks like a key screenshot:
I added yellow highlighting of the Axis units that were ZOC locked, and also circled the cav division in red. To me at least it looks like this one single cav division, is really the fatal thing that set the stage for the collapse of Orel.
It may have had only 1000-2000 men, but it flips so many hexes. Of course, even if cav were brigade sized, Bread could still do the same thing with e.g. a 2000-3000 tank division or something (even if it only had 2000 men).
I think tyronec was able to escape from here on this particular turn, but maybe only because of how weak the ZOC locks are. Even so, that limits how far you can retreat. If the ZOC locks had been with stronger units, tyronec would have needed attacks there like this one (from further south):
tyronec had to attack with 3 to 1 numerical superiority with 3 motorized and SS divisions against only a single Soviet rifle division, and even then he only barely won. Tyronec's CVs are low on those units, but that is because of the pre-battle disruption making it very difficult for Axis to counterattack and break ZOC locks unless you have at least this sort of superiority.
Also I think it is worth noting that I think Bread's winter offensive, as powerful as it was, could have been stronger. In particular, he did not have cav corps ready - if he did, he could have collapsed Orel etc all the more quickly and devastatingly (and perhaps cut off the Rostov rail). What if Bread had 25k man Cav divisions with 3 rifle brigades for the ZOC locks (with the cav divisions also being able to advance further and ZOC lock more easily). ???
And in addition, Bread did not have blizzard for even all of the short time that winter lasted, so if hypothetically there had been blizzard for e.g. all 4 turns in December, it would be even tougher for Axis.
Anyway GG to both players and thanks for the excellent AAR to record the game for posterity.
