Role Reversal - GamerDad (Axis) vs. Shalkai (Sov) v1.12.0x

[Shalkai]

Turn 5 Epilogue: 13 hexes to Osinovets, 30 to Moscow
Current/Total losses at end of Soviet Turn 5:
Axis 15941/70718 men, 203/860 gun, 70/570 afv, 16/68 spac.
Soviet 109526/1061974 men, 1106/13817 gun, 941/7142 afv, 168/2160 spac
Net loss of about 4400 vehicles this turn: 3.1k lost, 1.3k captured by the invaders, minimal seized.
Air losses: Axis 33 (this turn), 153 Total. Soviet 367 (this turn), 4699 Total. 11:1 ratio - improved, but still lousy. Half Axis losses were Bf-109 (16). Still nowhere close to production. Wait, only 57% produced goes to OKH each turn, so around 22. All right, I’m getting there.
Important Soviet type losses: 31 MiG-3, 23 LaGG, 1 SB-2 Rcn, 2 IL-2.
Unit Losses: 3 TankD, 1 MotD, 2 RifleD, 2 MtnD, 1 AT Brig, 1 Naval Brig. Disbanded: 7 SecRgt, 2 Fort.Reg. ~40 Corps HQ

Pool of modern planes: 296 MiG-3, 158 Yak-1, 292 LaGG-3, 57 IL-2, 305 IL-4, 374 SB-2R, 15 Li-2. Numbers going up
German OOB: 3367083 men, 34236 gun, 5100 afv, 3769 plane.
Sov OOB: 4037324 men, 51289 gun, 14715 afv, 6652 plane.

This will probably be the last turn I keep so many units right up at the Dnepr and Dnestr river lines. Partly this is to take advantage of good fort levels and terrain, partly due to AGC panzers being isolated or barely in supply, and partly because I want to see how badly I get whacked in these areas I didn’t withdraw. One of the skills I need to develop in PBEM is building defense layers and judging how well my opponent can get through them. GamerDad’s advances and encirclements haven’t been deep ones in the last couple turns. Front lines are pretty near historical, which gives me a little bit of flexibility to experiment with things, like my Lake Jan line in the far north, or prepping for a big Odessa siege and standing fast on the Dnestr. Soviet OOB is just over 4M men, which is better than I have managed in recent solo games against myself.

AGS is poised to drive well through north Ukraine. I expect he’ll be up to Kiev and the Dnepr in about four turns; I’ve already got half the entrenchments needed dug on the east bank. Southern Ukraine forces will fall back across the open step to keep an even front line. Axis progress should also be swift on the land bridge in turns 7-9; supply will restrict his Turn 6 progress. Pressure is strong towards Leningrad, but the Baltic Coast path tends to bog down at end of long supply lines; my holding Pskov this long will delay any isolation of Leningrad. I may need to send a few extra RD up this way. Schlisselberg and the other forts east of Leningrad are only 1.2 or so right now - they need to be 3.0+ by the time panzers arrive, possibly as soon as Turn 9 or 10.

One slightly humorous thing popped out at me - 13 is an unlucky number if you’re a Panzer Division. 13th PzD was the only German unit exposed and seriously attacked on Turn 1, but it’s also been a favorite target of mine on later turns. As of Turn 5, after another counterattack and forced retreat, it was down to 101 ready afv. I think that’s only around 65% of a Panzer’s TOE. Whittling down mobile formations is one of my primary goals and it seems I’ve got at least a small start on that.

25Jan 2020: Just got a note from GamerDad - he’s still working on turn. I definitely left him with extra targets and challenges, plus v12.03 beta just came out which is going to change (lengthen) the leash on Panzer units. I’m glad I made 80 mile deep defense zones in the areas where he had panzers with decent fuel supplies. (Pskov, Vitebsk, Kiev sectors).

Starting with Axis Turn 6, we will be using the 12.03 Beta version.

[Telemecus]

ORIGINAL: Shalkai
There is no great benefit to this operation, as it doesn’t give me another port eligible to supply Leningrad. There are minor benefits of keeping a few more manpower points, and probably causing larger attrition on the Finns. The cost is three extra RD that I railed up here on turns 2 and 3, and a couple of AP to reorganize 7th Ind. Army. TBH I’m really just experimenting on a very small scale to see how quickly 2 RD and a Fort.Reg can build up fort level, and how long they can stand up to Finn attacks. If the line holds it may save me a nice chunk of AP - I won’t have to build 40+ AP worth of forts below the Karelian No Attack Line. If this line *is* broken, I’m just going to fall back all the way to the no-attack line and use these RDs to defend Volkhov and Tikhvin.

I would say the greatest benefit is to deterring the "right hook". If the Germans send panzers round Lake Ilmen they know they can get supply if they get as far as the Svir river thanks to Finnish friends. If they know they will have no one to meet and supply them there the options for a successful right hook go down.

[redrum68]

Recon flights find 2 panzer and 2 motorized divisions facing my weak Narva line. I see only 1 panzer and 1 mot down by Pskov. Interesting..supply chain to Narva isn’t great, but it is closer to Leningrad. Narva will get some serious reinforcements this turn. 3 units are railed in, and now I have three defense lines, the third on the Luga River. More units will be needed but that can wait for future turns - AGN is going to have it’s work cut out even to take Narva and Pskov on Turn 6.

Is there any risk of the panzers breaking through Narva and heading southeast to pocket Pskov? Or is that just too far distance wise? Just imagining the Germans pushing infantry south of Pskov towards Ilmen and the Panzers cross Narva then head towards Ilmen. Though I guess at this point the panzers probably don't have that much fuel.

[Shalkai]

@Telemecus That's a decent point about making the right hook a non-viable option, but to do that I'd have to send even more forces up to face the Finns. As it is, my Lake Jan line held until Turn 8. I did consider again at that point, and a slow fighting withdrawal was a viable option, though it would have been extremely tough to keep the Finns from getting at least close to the no-attack line until Blizzard arrives. Instead I'm putting all my cookies into the 'No Sviritsa for YOU!' jar and giving 100% of my attention to AGN. We're currently on Turn 10, so it'll be a month or more until we know how far AGN can make it.

@redrum68 Yes there's a risk, though not this turn as low fuel supplies plus long supply lines mean his panzers will only have 25-30 MP to spend. Terrain plus a couple of screening units I placed mean a Narva-Pskov pocket is almost impossible in the current turn. Stay tuned for Turn 6 report (should be up in a day or two) as this very issue gets some special attention!

[Shalkai]

Turn 6

8Feb2020: A bit of a hiatus due to RL issues for GamerDad. Next turn received today, so away we go! v12.03 patch came out while GamerDad had the turn, so this is first Soviet turn under this Beta patch level.

First glance shows Axis gains of 20-30 miles on some sectors. Northern Front looks good - Lake Jan line is good against the Finns, and we’re still holding on the Narva River against AGN. Northwest Front lost Pskov but the 2nd/3rd lines held. The front line is nearly straight between Pskov and Vitebsk. South of the Dvina, AGC surrounded two RD in Vitebsk and pushed about 30-40 miles forward on land bridge, but my Dnepr river line just south still holds. It’ll be outflanked at the north end next turn as GamerDad will get east of the major river section and nearer Smolensk. Mogilev was lost as expected but defending units retreated and will fight another day.

Southwest Front lost up to five hexes as panzers pushed toward Zhitomir and Vinnitsa, but the enemy is still 40 miles west of both. Six divisions are nearly surrounded in the hills southwest of Vinnitsa and will be unable to escape. Southern Front held well on the Dnestr, losing four battles but only allowing a single division to actually cross the river. Overall, things went about as well as I’d hoped - only Hanko Garrison and Vitebsk are actually pocketed, plus those six nearly surrounded. It’ll be time to pull back in large sections of the front line this turn.

Vehicle Pool: 147k (47k needed), looks good. RailCap starts at 37080/137950. Unit move total down a bit.
Manpower-3415, Port-138, Railyard-292, Vehicle-150, HInd-232, Oil-128, Fuel-149, Resource-196, Armament-366.

Arrived Unit list shows about 12 divisions (all rebuilt shells) and the new 43rd Army HQ. Sixteen more Corps HQ were disbanded along with one NKVD regiment. Eight air units upgraded to late model planes. One air battalion (10 plane) units renamed and upgraded to air regiment (20 plane) this turn.

Key stats from EvLog production totals: 85.6k Armaments produced, 1406 vehicles, 301 aircraft, 127 afv, 187k manpower. About 795k armament surplus left after replacement phases. Down at the bottom of Event Log, Resource Status shows Rail at 97% - 184k free, 189k needed. It might be a good idea to drop the reserved % a bit - I’ll have to look at arriving unit schedule for next few turns. 17 partisan battalions now formed, and 13 supply drops done from VVS airbases.

CR Battles tab reports 101 battles of all types. Only around 30 Axis recons; escort still on. ~50 ground battles across the whole front - biggest fight was for Mogilev, losses of Axis 900/Soviet 5400 men. Only four interdictions by Soviets with minimal results.

Axis main-line rail repair progress: 67,26 heading toward Narva (not direct to Pskov). 65,54 NW of Minsk 67,61 S of Minsk. 60,87 east of Tarnopol. 73,105 E of Kishinev, right up to the Dnestr River front line. Should I try to hold this section and cost him a turn of rail advance? Hmmmm....Yeah, I may try to hold the wide lower section of this river, south of Kishinev, for one more turn. Nearest panzers are 12-14 hexes northwest so pocket risk is light.

All right - generally my lines held up well but this turn I need to withdraw exposed western sections of the line and limit exposure to encirclements. Narva will need some beefing up, since the AGN FBD is heading that way and there’s one panzer corps already supporting that attack on the Baltic coast.

Oh, let’s check Hanko - yep, still isolated in v12.03. Defensive CV still about 11, might hold on a bit.

Now it’s time for our weekly Spreadsheet Wars interlude. Three partisan battalions are ‘P’ now, not just cadre, and at 45% or higher Toe and Morale. I don’t know what the activation criteria are, can’t remember if the rules mention that? I’ll keep an eye on them.

211 total infantry units. Average morale is 45 (+2), EXP is 34 (-1). Still flimsy. Fifteen or so RDs have now managed to get above 50 Mor+Exp.

National Reserve has 31 air battalions (10-plane) of all types, and 94 regiments. I’m getting quicker with using LibreOffice to sort air (I’ve been practicing while playing a solo game while waiting for this turn) and it only takes about 15 minutes to sort and mark the list of 50 planes to send to reserve, and 40 candidates to return to the front. Switching back to Commander Report, I make sure the VVS candidates (IL-4 and DB-3B DBAD units) are set for night missions, then move the tired/hurt air units to reserve. Total time for SpreadsheetWars is about 40 minutes.

Here's a full map at turn start:

[Shalkai]

Arriving unit totals were light, as mentioned, and railing units from the east doesn’t take long. Turn 7-8-9 are all under 20 units arriving, so I turn rail reserved setting from 15% to 10%. Cost 5 AP. Then I do train-spotting (actually panzers) to see where the danger points are: 10 mobile div in AGS near Vinnitsa; 6 near Mogilev (Guderian), 6 near Vitebsk (Hoth), 2 near Pskov and 4 near Narva for AGN. OK, no major missing formations. I can go light on the recon. AGC panzers are over 20 hexes from rail so they won’t have great fuel levels; AGS and AGN will have nearly full tanks. More reason to pull back Southwest and Northwest Front units. OK - That’s a couple hours of work done; time for pondering plans and some sleep.

9Feb2020: Things are definitely going all right as I further review the combat lines. I may be able to retreat a couple of panzers west of Smolensk; one success would relieve Vitebsk, the other would push back the panzer schwerpunkt a hex and lessen their gains of last turn. Hmmm. Forward panzers west of Kiev are also possible targets, though SWFront doesn’t have as many strong units.

Unit orders start north of Lake Ladoga. The two best RD in 7th Independent Army are shuffled into hex 83,2 (the most vulnerable), with two more RD in reserve behind them. This hex is now fort 2.38 and 56 DCV. Finnish Karelian Army is going to have to fight costly, repeated battles to push me out of here.

[Shalkai]

Near Leningrad, a couple weak units are put on the north line since the Finns are obviously showing restraint and no interest in actually attacking the city. One fort.region built as well. This releases several strong divisions to move to the defense line forming southwest of the city. Another fort is built in Novgorod, since it looks like the push from Pskov will be slow and I may have enough time to turn this into a bastion as well.

Hum - forgot to set ground unit TOEs - will do that in a bit.

[Shalkai]

Picking on Panzers Episode 6 starts out near Vitebsk. 12th PzD is pushed back from the tip of the advance. First attack to relieve Vitebsk falls apart due to CV reduction and turns from 3:1 to 1.52:1 final result. I can muster enough for a second base 3:1 which results in a 2.11:1 retreat. Yay! Loss ratios weren’t even that bad, about 4:1. That leaves Lehr Brigade exposed, so I hit them as well. Stalin would approve. Net results aren’t huge, but pushing the land bridge front back a hex and causing almost 1k casualties to panzertruppen (plus torching a few crappy light tanks) is significant. Not all units are moved yet, but I’ve managed this little counteroffensive without compromising my defenses too much. Picture shows hexes reclaimed and battle sites.

[Shalkai]

Panzer Battle 1, against 12 PzDiv:

[Shalkai]

Battle 2, first attempt to relieve Vitebsk:

[Shalkai]

Battle 3, 2nd try on Vitebsk:

[Shalkai]

Battle 4, push back Lehr:

[Shalkai]

10Feb2020: The next evening, after making some more pics for the AAR, I start looking at pulling back lines in Ukraine. SWFront has too many direct attached units, and only has three Army HQ. Southern Front is in the same boat. WesternFront has five armies, and could transfer one but the AP cost is high - more than I even have left for this turn after transferring some units and building two Fort Regions up north. Continuing my checks, Northwest and Northern Fronts each have four ground armies so they’re good. There is one empty Army HQ (43rd) that just arrived this turn so I’m going to rail it down to SW Front and get units better organized as they fall back. The next new arrival will go to Southern Front.

A check of the AGS panzer fuel levels with the map tool shows they are red, but they are also close to their railhead and should have good MP next turn. I need at least three lines to slow down the push on Kiev, plus some scattered new arrivals in the big empty area southeast of Vinnitsa to make a ZOC web. Let’s see how far my units can stretch, but I’m going to shift south and fix up Southern Front first. Anything extra can shift a bit north and help cover SWFront. Interdictions play havoc with some of my withdrawals. Oh well - I wanted a loose screen in front of the big bad panzers anyway. A couple of units are completely clobbered by air and are going to be PanzerBait next turn.

Here is Odessa area showing fort buildup, and southern half of Southern Front.

[Shalkai]

Now up to Southwest Front. Good grief! The first unit that I assigned to 43rd Army went from 3 CV to 8! Who’s that general?! Tolbukhin - ratings 9-8-6-7:6-7. Yeah, he’s a good one. Next one goes from CV 3.7 to 11.3. (this is with improved CV, he’d probably be CV 6 with default) These guys will secure the 4 hexes just south of the Pripyat Marshes just fiiiiine. Hmmm...yeah a quick check of leaders in CR shows that this guy and Konev are the only two Mech 6 rated army generals assigned right now. Heck with the AP cost, I’m going to load up Tolby with more tank and motorized, and make an impromptu First Tank Army. His HQ also gets loaded up with SU.

It takes several hours of work but SWFront and SFront are in good shape once I get done moving ground units (I’ll do air attacks and any final adjustments later at the end of my turn). Axis will be able to advance 3-4 hexes no problem, but I have a good chance of holding Zhitomir for another turn. The checkerboard is 8 hexes deep so even that clump of six panzers will have tough going. The Vinnitsa area is weaker, and I wouldn’t be surprised if AGS manages a small pocket including the city. I can live with that if it happens. Can’t be strong everywhere.

[Shalkai]

Another thing I consider this turn is sending a sacrificial Cavalry unit into the Pripyat Marshes, where a stretch of territory is still under control almost to Brest. There's a chance I could cut the rail line east of the Brest fortress. I first looked at this on Turn 4, but did not have any cavalry free at the time. Last turn I could have sent one in, but I could tell from ZoC changes that Axis infantry were advancing through the marshes on both sides of the Pripyat River. They didn't complete the link up this turn, but the German 298th ID (highlighted in pink by cursor in shot below) would only have to move two hexes northeast. If he doesn't close the gap in his Turn 7, maybe I'll rail forward a cav from Chernigov or arriving reinforcements.

[Shalkai]

Kharkov MD has 18 divisions holding the middle Dnepr around Gomel. Just north, Orel MD (also 18 div) defends the east bank of the river up to Orsha where it turns the corner.

[Shalkai]

Western Front masses in front of Smolensk, ready to continue the battle. I spend 13 AP to replace a poor general in 20th Army with Zakharov 8-7-6-7:5-7. That’s probably a better use of AP than another three forts at this point. This Front now has three excellent Army commanders in Zakharov, Kuznetsov, and Purkaev, and the other two are decent. Defenses are thick and GamerDad won’t get far, though I’ll lose a couple divisions pocketed in Vitebsk next turn. This is actually very similar to how the historical battles went - furious Soviet counterattacks that didn’t get very far, followed by the Germans pocketing or routing another clump of divisions. Another 3 AP are spent moving Tank/Mot divs into the two armies with good mech ratings. I only have three good mobile units right now, with three more refitting, so they will mostly just be making stronger defensive stacks.

Note for future turns - do ground attacks with air units on quiet fronts before moving units - that way there’ll be less ready planes to interdict. Also, Northern Front is going to need a few more RDs. I need to get digging on the Volkhov River soon.

[Shalkai]

Some scrolling around and pondering are making me rethink Northwest Front trying to hold at their trench line just east of Pskov. They could be pocketed from Narva - GamerDad has at least 9 divisions there, and from the CF they are the cream of AGN. So I’m going to fall back a couple hexes from where the line I made earlier around Pskov, which will keep his infantry from getting as many attacks in, plus keep ME from being overambitious with my defenses - that’s something I’ve always had a problem with in this game, and one of the things I’m trying to learn to do better as the Soviet player. Anyway, I’m taking before and after pictures for the AAR. Here's the forward position...

[Shalkai]

And now here's the revised, safer line farther east. Anyway, it’ll be interesting to see what AGN does after next turn. Pocket Pskov? Push straight east? Regardless, I’ll content myself with falling back on Novgorod and letting him get further away from his supply railhead.

[Shalkai]

11Feb2020: Action continues, first with ground bombing up and down the front. It didn’t seem like I had very many bombers available but I checked net results afterwards - 107 ground bombings caused about 2500 Axis casualties. Red Air Force has finally hit my 2k/turn Axis ground casualty goal. Air losses just during my turn are 11 Axis fighters vs. 120 Soviet fighters and 26 bombers. Almost a hundred of those fighters were biplanes so those results aren't that horrible.

Up north of Lake Ladoga, my Lake Jan defense line looks like it may work. Finns are going to have a really tough time getting a 2:1 combat result. I’ve got six decent RD on the line, with another two full-strength sitting in reserve. If this line holds another 2-3 turns and fort levels build up higher, I’ll start cycling in replacement RifleDivs and using this army as a pool of trained divisions.

After finishing unit moves and setting Toe% levels, I spend some time fiddling with Support Levels. No change on Corps, which are set at 0. Some armies have grabbed extra SUs (one had 21) so some of them are set to 2. Others are left locked. I may unlock the rest next turn. Fronts are looking good, with the active fronts left at 4, Orel Kharkov and Moscow MD set to 3 (they only have 36 CP) and the frozen ones at zero, other than North Caucasus which is bumped up to 1. It can start stocking up for the future armies it will control in Crimea defense.

Factory Evacs: Kolpino-Serov 1 arma, 3 HvIn. Leningrad-Kirov 6 arma, 5 HvIn, 5 Vehicle, 7 T-50. Kirovograd-Tbilisi 2 arma. That uses up factory evac cap. My unit rail left unused is 23524. I used my last few AP building some SUs so I’ll have to wait til next turn to lower to 10%. Turn sent off after a few small tweaks to my defenses.

Air Loss screen at end of Turn 6: