Intel on IJN Fleet Movements

[Aerosol2207]

I am playing GC as Allies against the AI. It is late January 42.

In my SIGINT report for 23 Jan I received a note that the "Southeast Area Fleet is planning an attack of Auckland."

I happened to have 2 carrier TF's operating in vicinity of Suva so I did some quick calculations and picked a location near Auckland where I could hole up, away from the likely lines of approach from the north, and then covered as much of the area between Rabaul (which has fallen) and the ops area with patrol arcs as possible hoping to site any attacking force as it transits south.

I have no information on the composition of the Southeast Area Fleet, but Noumea was raided in mid-Jan (2 weeks ago in game time) by a force of 2 x BB and 2 xDD, so I assume this may be another effort by that SAG to catch me with my pants down in NZ.

It is now 1 Feb 42, my carriers have been on station for a week and I have no sightings between Auckland and New Britain of anything resembling an IJN striking force.

I know that when radio intel reports a ground unit preparing for an attack, it is linked to the setting of an objective on an LCU. I *assumed* that with a fleet the report would be generated either by the enemy selecting a hex (e.g. "Auckland") for surface attackers or a port / airfield attack in the case of naval aircraft. However, this is just a guess.

My questions are, 1) are such intel reports subject to FoW or are they reflective of what the opponent (AI in this case) has actually entered into orders? and 2) can the opponent "change their minds" ?

I have done the calculations on speed / time to arrival in case the reported attacking force is a CV TF or a BB TF and based on a departure from Rabaul or Truk. Based on these calculations I am planning to keep my carriers on station for another 3 days but after that time I will need to pull them off for other priorities. I've also shut down the sea lane traffic between Suva and Sydney/Brisbane fearing a massacre if the attacking force arrives, so I've got a backlog on Suva and Pago that needs to get through as well. Any insight / help is appreciated.

[Platoonist]

When playing against the Japanese AI, I have also seen intel indicating that a Japanese HQ of some sort (usually still in China) is planning an attack on a far-flung objective like Auckland. So, far I've never seen it materialize into any action. I get the feeling that the AI (like human players do) will occasionally set a distant planning objective it never attends to achieve as an deception operation hoping it will get picked up on signit. Thus, driving the human player into a frenzy of unnecessary defensive actions. So, I'd take it with a grain of salt. If I saw intel saying that that "X" unit was embarked on "X" transport bound for Auckland, then I'd be nervous.

[btd64]

What scenario are you playing? FoW does play a part in the intell reports. But you never know. Get some mines in there to help you defend the base....GP

[Platoonist]

I checked on a few finished games versus the Japanese AI. Seems like the Chinese Expeditionary Force and SE Area Fleet usually pick Auckland as an objective. As a matter of fact, they were still optimistically planning on it in 1944, even with the IJN crushed like a beer can at that point. But all I ever saw in those games were a few Japanese subs in the New Zealand area.

intel.jpg (51.25 KiB) Viewed 497 times

[Aerosol2207]

Ahh yes that is very helpful thank you. It slipped my mind that "Southeast Area Fleet" is an HQ land unit not an actually collection of ships on its way to Auckland from somewhere. This is likely just the AI being aspirational. I will tell Halsey he can go ahead and bring the boys home. Waste of a week with my best fleet units sitting on the bottom of the world, hopefully the Kiwis are at least happy to know we will spare no expense to help them.

[Nami Koshino]

I will tell Halsey he can go ahead and bring the boys home. Waste of a week with my best fleet units sitting on the bottom of the world, hopefully the Kiwis are at happy to know we will spare no expense to help them.

Wow. Score one for the AI disinformation machine---if that's what it was. However, it sounds like the kind of ruse that would only work once per newer player.