Dutch AVP Arend: Scenario 1 Exploits

[WEXF]

WEXF: At Geraldton, LCDR Goerk, U. told by Command that a decision had been made to have LCDR Bax, JS take over command of AVP Arend. Bax's "Naval" and "Air" rating were excellent and among the best of available Dutch officers.

Now there's a question I had not considered before - does the leadership chain for a ship-based FP go to the ship's Captain or to the higher level Air Unit/Air HQ it belongs to? I think the latter - personnel issues and other administration are normally handled on the Air side of things while to Ship's Captain would have operational command, deciding what missions to assign the FP in support of Arend. But I can't say which would be modeled in game terms. It would make little difference except for upgrades to the FP or rotation of pilots.

A very interesting question. Even if the leadership chain goes to the air unit HQ, I would think having a ship captain with a higher "air" rating would make the most sense for AVP Arend. It may not be helpful in terms of "game play" but IRL it would make sense. Small point that might be relevant is that the Walrus II is in a British unit but has a HQ listed as "Independent".

[WEXF]

The latest recon missions around the Timor Sea confirmed some of the previous intel, raised a few questions and revealed some new important enemy activity.

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Koepang continued to be the center of activity, today showing almost 170 aircraft with the continued large number of auxiliary planes. The difference that caught the eyes of Command was that there now seemed to be 7 ships in port where previously only 4 were noticed. Only the same AMc and AO were identified but there was lots of discussion about what might be going on at Koepang. Waingapoe, Dili and Lautem looked as they had previously. The enemy unit at Lautem had been identified as the Kure 3rd SNLF, a well equipped unit. The new development was that a new L1 airfield had been completed at Dabo. That had to mean that there was at least one unit there and that it had some level of engineering and aviation support.

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Command had reviewed the intel on the air unit known to be at Dili, Kanoya KuS-1. At the start of the war this unit was known as Yamade Det S-1. It had a withdrawal date of 7Apr42 and was scheduled to return with its new designation almost immediately.

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The 22nd Air Flotilla also contained other squadrons, mostly Nell and Betty bombers and Command believed there was a strong possibility that these squadrons were well represented by the force at Koepang. Betty bombers had been seen along the north Australian coast over the past weeks.

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[WEXF]

None of the level bombers from the 22nd Air Flotilla were scheduled to be withdrawn early in the war.

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There was another fighter squadron scheduled to join the 22nd Air Flotilla in April 1942, Genzan KuS-1. Command believed that this unit could also be in the Timor region.

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Both fighter squadrons in the 22 Air Flotilla started as "Carrier Capable" but not "Carrier Trained". Their status now at the end of July was not known nor was their unit "max size" as both fighter squadrons had the ability to be re-sized.
Command was already planning a series of recon and strike missions to try and gain further clarification of the enemy plans in the Timor region.

[WEXF]

30Jul found the forts at Geraldton 74%>L3. In less than a week the L3 forts will be complete and the decision has been made to then shift to expanding the AF to at least AF6. The pilots on Arend flew their search mission but were unable to locate any sign of the enemy submarine known to be in the area. They were not alone as none of the expanded search missions performed by numerous air assets at Geraldton, Perth and other bases were able to locate I-156.

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One of the reasons the decision to expand the AF>6 was made can be seen by looking closely at the base screen above. Notice the * next to "Airfield Capacity". That symbol indicates that on 30Jul the airfield at Geraldton was not operating with top efficiency. The details are not evident on the base screen shown but the reason is because of the number of air groups that were ordered to do missions other than "training" or "rest". There certainly is sufficient aviation support at the base.

[WEXF]

The afternoon intel briefing on the enemy situation at Timor provided some additional information on what was happening on Dobo and Taberfane that caused Command to start thinking that they might have been wrong on their assumption about the enemy's airborne invasion plan for northern Australia. Command had reviewed previous intel on how the bases at Dobo and Taberfane had fallen to the enemy. Both bases had been taken by airborne shock attacks in the first few days of July. The units making the attacks were known to be the same units that Command currently thought were at Koepang, Yok 3rd SNLF and the 1st Raiding Regiment.

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Recon missions and a bombing run showed that the 1st Raiding Regiment was definitely at Dobo, although the number of troops reported there was a total of two units, the second of which was as yet unidentified. It was expected that the second unit likely was one that contained aviation support as the airbase had just been completed. Some AFVs were reported on the island and none were in the 1st Raiding Regiment. More intel was needed.

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The DL on Taberfane was not that strong but the low number of troops reported there was consistent with the Yok 3rd SNLF, but again more intel was needed.
What Command considered important was the detection of the enemy APD at Dobo. It suggested that the enemy was using Fast Transport missions to possibly target the remaining Allied bases around Saumlaki.
Command also knew that another enemy airborne unit, the 2nd Raiding Regiment was currently at Palembang, based on Sig Intel and recent combat summaries.
As the briefing closed there was a report that AVP Bellatrix had safely made it half way to Port Hedland and was not currently spotted by the enemy.

[WEXF]

31Jul found the forts at Geraldton 82%>L3 and the AF no longer over stacked. A number of medium bombers had ben moved to nearby bases and will await the increasing of the AF before returning. On Arend no improvement to the air skills of the pilots were reported and the Walrus II continued operating on a Naval Search mission. No enemy submarine activity had been reported anywhere on the west coast of Australia. There was a report by a search plane of a possible sighting in the south but it was unclear if that was accurate.

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There was a significant new arrival at the train station. The Cavite USN Base Force had just arrived. This unit that had started the war in Manila had been evacuated through the DEI and eventually rebuilt in Australia. It was now almost at full TOE and had been at Perth helping that important port handle operations. Now that Perth was at max size, it was felt by Command that the engineers and support stoops would be an important addition to the force improving Geraldton and would allow the consideration of moving some of the smaller units from Geraldton to other regional bases that could use some added resources.

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There was a small posting at the Officer's Mess simply stating that a "Weather Briefing" would be held at noon. Since everyone was drying out from some earlier storms and had heard that there were likely to be clear skies, the need for a "briefing" was somewhat of a mystery.

[WEXF]

As the weather briefing started it was clear that the information being shared was not about Geraldton but instead was about the impact the changing weather patterns was having on the ability of Command to improve the intel on what the enemy was doing in the Timor region. Presented first was a detailed map of the Timor region for 30Jul showing the weather forecast and indications of or lack of cloud cover over key bases as orders for the day were being written.

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The map showed that the weather at Darwin was pretty good. No cloud cover is shown and a mouse over of the base indicated some "Light Rain". The overall forecast was "Overcast". Clouds are shown over Koepang and Dili and mouse overs showed "heavy" and "moderate" rain at these enemy bases. No clouds were showing at Taberfane or Dobo but mouse overs did indicate heavy clouds. Based on all of the data Command decided to order attack and recon missions over Taberfane and Dobo.
A second, more detailed map was shown for what the weather was like as orders for 31Jul were being written. There was also a statement that the results of the missions ordered for 30Jul was that most were cancelled and where a mission did fly the number of planes that were able to take part had been severely limited. Basically, the air missions for 30Jul were a bust.
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Darwin shows clouds and the mouse over indicates "severe storms". Taberfane has clouds and "heavy rain". Dobo shows no clouds but the mouse over shows "heavy clouds". The weather over SS Stingray has a cloud and a mouse over of "extreme overcast". Derby does not show a cloud but the mouse over reads "heavy clouds".
Based on this information Command has decided that the likelihood of gaining additional intel today was pretty low but some selected missions would be ordered as one thig was clear=the weather was pretty unpredictable.

[WEXF]

Looking at the maps in the posting above some of the followers of this AAR may wonder, as I did, how much attention should be given to "weather" in our game. It is clear that weather has a big impact on the results of any given day but what can a player actually do about the weather? For me, I have decided to use the combination of "clouds" (toggle CtrlF7) and the "mouse over" for both the home base and the target base to help decide on whether an air mission should be ordered. If a mission is considered "critical" or if there are no other potential targets with better indicators, I still order the missions but my expectation is that there is a good chance that they won't fly. BTW, I have found that when a mission does not fly there still is some maintenance done to the airframes.

[BBfanboy]

One of my biggest beefs about the game is the lack of realistic weather - as in a front moving through a series of hexes over a series of turns. Instead we get a "Weather Forecast" for a huge area (see the Weather Map and the Forecast at each base) but the actual weather at the base next turn can be completely different. Case in point - I had dozens of bomber squadrons from multiple bases scattered over a 10 hex circle from the target, the Weather Map Forecast for that area and all the adjoining areas was Light Cloud and the actual weather at the target and all the bomber bases was good. Next turn - one base had Severe Storms. Two more and the target had Thunderstorms. Three more had Heavy Rain. One or Two had Heavy Cloud. At least one Had Extreme Overcast. I get that pop-up Thunderstorms can occur, but those usually only last a couple of hours, not the whole day!

I had subs patrolling the one and two hex circles around the target and the weather they reported did not show any rational next-turn progression from their location to the target. So weather appears to be random and players end up setting their orders even if it means their aircraft might fly in very bad weather and take losses.

[WEXF]

One of my biggest beefs about the game is the lack of realistic weather - as in a front moving through a series of hexes over a series of turns. Instead we get a "Weather Forecast" for a huge area (see the Weather Map and the Forecast at each base) but the actual weather at the base next turn can be completely different. Case in point - I had dozens of bomber squadrons from multiple bases scattered over a 10 hex circle from the target, the Weather Map Forecast for that area and all the adjoining areas was Light Cloud and the actual weather at the target and all the bomber bases was good. Next turn - one base had Severe Storms. Two more and the target had Thunderstorms. Three more had Heavy Rain. One or Two had Heavy Cloud. At least one Had Extreme Overcast. I get that pop-up Thunderstorms can occur, but those usually only last a couple of hours, not the whole day!

I had subs patrolling the one and two hex circles around the target and the weather they reported did not show any rational next-turn progression from their location to the target. So weather appears to be random and players end up setting their orders even if it means their aircraft might fly in very bad weather and take losses.

This is a very interesting discussion. I have always thought that the basic weather forecast screen that shows the 9 quadrants is only useful for a daily "big picture". That same info is provided on the screen that shows all hexes with a letter designation for the forecasted weather in that hex for that day. The same daily info is again provided but on each base in the lower left of every base screen. This info is only for the same day that the orders are currently being written. In Section 12.1 it does say: "The weather forecast in each quadrant from day to day will generally change slowly (moving only up or down one level), but sometimes will change dramatically from one day to the next". To me this means that anything can actually happen with the forecast.
For me the key part of the manual on weather is in the first paragraph of 12.1. That part reads: ". The weather at each base or target is determined each air phase, and is not linked to prior weather at that location. Each base is checked each air phase for its weather independent of all other bases." Since there are 3 different air phases that means that a number of die rolls will take place three times each turn to determine the weather at each base. That is why air actions at the same base in different air phases sometimes show different weather.
I am confused by the differences seen by the mouse over and the presence or lack of any clouds showing in a hex. I expect that the program determines if a cloud will show at a certain point in the turn and what shows in the mouse over is determined in a different way.
In any case I don't think that any weather shown in a given day has any impact on what weather shows up the next day except for the starting point before any of the air phases for the current day starts. JMO

[BBfanboy]

Exactly! It is same day conditions, not a forecast for the next day. So why call it a forecast?

[WEXF]

Exactly! It is same day conditions, not a forecast for the next day. So why call it a forecast?

I have a feeling, and that is all it is, that the "forecast" shown in the 9 quadrant screen is some kind of "base line" for the series of calculations the game makes that determines the actual weather in any one of the three air phases of the current day's turn. I consider it to be like the initial opinion of the weather officer at 12:01 AM of the current day. Section 12.1 says that the weather is not linked to prior weather at a base or weather at other bases but it does not say that the forecasted weather is not part of the function that determines the actual weather at a base.
The bottom line is that there really is nothing a player can do to really get a handle on what the weather will be. Maybe the program uses a series of 100 sided die rolls to come up with the actual weather in a given phase. All of us war gamers have had the experience of an Anti-tank Rifle getting a critical hit on a Tiger Tank. So getting some thunderstorms when the weather is looking clear isn't so far fetched. Have to take it as it comes! There is the famous line: "The Sun Will Come Out Tomorrow"

[WEXF]

As August 1942 began the forts at Geraldton were 94% > L3, having improved by 12% because of the increase in the number of engineers at the base. Only one more day would be needed to reach level 3. On Arend PO Caruthers saw his experience and low naval skill levels increase to 55 and 59 respectively.

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At the train station additional troops of the Cebu USN Base Force were unloading. They would further strengthen not only the engineering force at Geraldton but would also provide significant AA and radar to the defenses.

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This unit, originally based in the Philippines, was only at 36% of TOE and was mainly missing lots of support troops lost early in the war.
An afternoon briefing was scheduled to update everyone on the status of enemy activity on the north coast.

[WEXF]

`The afternoon briefing started with a report that AVP Bellatrix had safely reached Port Hedland despite heavy enemy air coverage of the region. Command made the decision to have the AVP remain at Port Hedland to support a detachment of patrol planes sent there to improve naval searches. This action left AVP Bellatrix under the command of LCDR Besancon and allowed LCDR Cuyler to return to the "pool" until needed again.
Results of air missions flown in the Timor region were reported and generally were very favorable. All ordered missions flew despite anticipated bad weather over most of the region. At Koepang detection was again at 9/11 and showing essentially the same data as previously reported. Aircraft totals were: 82 fighters, 61 bombers and 65 Auxiliary for a total of 208.

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Details were reported on an air strike by 10 Hudson III (LR) bombers on Taberfane. This mission was ordered to hopefully confirm which unit was at the enemy base. Yokosuka 3rd SNLF, an important paratroop unit that had been thought to be on Taberfane, was confirmed.

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Command was a bit worried about the details of the recon on Taberfane as it showed 1280 troops when previous data had reported only half of that number. Only the presence of a single unit was in the recon report but the known TOE of Yok 3rd SNLF would not account for the higher number. Command was wondering if a second unit had arrived at Taberfane?

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[WEXF]

2Aug saw the forts at Geraldton reach L3 and attention of the engineers were being shifted to improving the AF to at least L5 and most likely to L6. On Arend PO Caruthers saw his low naval skill reach 60.

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The daily intel briefing showed that the weather in the north was not perfect but better than it had been. Enemy strength at Koepang was unchanged and showing 80 fighters, 45 bombers and 66 auxiliary aircraft. Another successful bombing raid on Taberfane further reduced the strength of the paratroopers known to be at the base.

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[WEXF]

3Aug found the air field at Geraldton already 12%>L5. In less than 2 weeks 4 engine bombers will be able to operate 250 miles north of Perth. No change in enemy activity was reported on the north coast and no improvement was seen by the pilots on Arend in their low naval skill.

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Everyone noticed the arrival of a new squadron of Australian recon planes. No.1 PRU RAAF was small. It only had 5 B-339-23 (PR) Recon planes but everyone at Geraldton understood their importance. They were assigned directly to ABDA and were the only recon unit the RAAF had or would have during the war. Sure there would be other recon squadrons arriving, mainly US Army units, but these Australian planes were pretty good. They could cover the area between Perth, Carnarvon and Meekatharra and 320 miles out to sea.

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At the Officer's Club the talk was heavy that the arrival of these recon planes further demonstrated Command's resolve to defend the west coast of Australia. There was another rumor floating around dealing with some major developments at Perth. No one had any details but someone said they were going to reach out to the former commander of Arend, now stationed at Perth, to see what was happening.

[WEXF]

4Aug found the AF at Geraldton 22%>L5. On Arend WO Hazard saw his Defense skill improve to 59.

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No reply had been received from LCDR Goerk, the former commander of Arend now stationed at Perth, about the rumors heard recently about "significant" developments in the region. In Perth, Goerk knew that he couldn't respond to his friends for security reasons but he certainly knew the "rumors" were true. As he sat in his cabin on AR Castor he was in awe at the sight of two recently arrived ships in the Perth harbor. One was CL Birmingham, a 9100 ton, radar equipped ship armed with 6" guns.

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However, Goerk couldn't believe his eyes as he looked at the 33000 ton BB Valiant. This ship, mounting 15" guns was the largest ship Goerk had ever seen.

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Goerk now realized how important his new assignment was. Both of these ships were too large to be worked on in the size 3 Perth shipyard. Although the slightest amount of major damage could be dealt with in the Perth port, it was only AR Castor that could repair up to 5 points of major damage on these large ships.
It was interesting that both ships were only going to be around for less than a year before they were to be withdrawn for duty elsewhere. But for about 6 months the west coast of Australia clearly was in a much better position to counter Japanese activity in the region. Goerk wondered what other assets would be arriving in Perth to support these large ships?
GAME NOTE: From the ship screen of BB Valiant it is clear that withdrawal of the two ships could be done in Perth (arrow at bottom).

[BBfanboy]

IIRC, you need at least a size 7 port to do a withdrawal. And I am not sure that there are not further restrictions, like perhaps only Sydney for withdrawals from Australia.

[WEXF]

IIRC, you need at least a size 7 port to do a withdrawal. And I am not sure that there are not further restrictions, like perhaps only Sydney for withdrawals from Australia.

The manual in Section 6.9 says:
"To withdraw a ship, the ship must be off-map or at any national home base except the NEI and PI. If these conditions are met there will be an option on the ship detail screen that allows for Withdraw Ship to be selected."

I believe there was a change that allowed large ports to also allow for withdrawals. Perth is now a P7 although it started as P5. BTW the statement saying the ship must be "off map" actually means in an off map port. You can not withdraw a ship that is not in a port. The key is the option to click on the withdrawal option in the ship screen as shown in the screen shot above. Players have to be careful because clicking on the option is final. You aren't asked to confirm the choice. The ship is gone!
I think there are some forum posts on this subject but I don't have the references handy.
Thanks for the comment.

[WEXF]

For those that are following this AAR check back to the January 6, 2023 posting where DD Paladin had to move from Perth to Melbourne to be able to withdraw. At that time Perth was a P6. Looking at the ship screen for DD Paladin you see the withdrawal note but there is no ability to "click" it when Perth was P6.

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The commentary with that posting was:
"This AAR is serving as a learning vehicle for me on the mechanics of WITP-AE. Perth is currently a P(6) and, I believe, is not one of the locations where ships can be withdrawn. I know that National Home Bases and Off Map Bases are OK. I also remember seeing a forum post that said that level 7 ports also work in Australia and on the east (it should have said west) coast of the US. I am planning to increase Perth to its max size of P7 but I am not expecting that to be done in the next 6 weeks so Paladin needs to move."
I also know that not any P7 will work as I have Adak Island at P7 and ships that are due to withdraw do not have an active withdrawal button.

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