Illinois Yankee in the Showa Emperor's Court (Q-Ball v Canoe)

[Q-Ball]

Yeah, it's a quandary. I still have time to start something if I move soon; at this point Dan can't tell where my infantry is (Calcutta), and the spearheads are chasing him, but his troops are just running, and probably won't stop I am guessing until Cawnpore at the earliest, and maybe not until Delhi.

If I start something else, it will have to be limited; Fiji, perhaps, or the Line Islands, or Attu-Kiska, but a major Australia/NZ thing is out.

As a side benefit, launching an offensive in the pacific would re-position units for the inevitable US offensive.

Still, I want to keep the "skeer" on as long as possible in India. Dan has to be sweating right now.

Combat Report, May 29-June 1, 1942:

Running Fight: "North" of Ranchi on the road to Benares, I am chasing the Allied rearguard.

Earlier in the month we caught the 16th Indian Bde and mauled it, reducing it to just a remnant, which escaped.

Now, we caught the 25th Australian Bde the same way; 1 attack at 5-1, then another in the PURSUIT phase the next day with an Armored Bde. That unit is wrecked, and still isolated behind my lines. He can rebuild it, but that's still good. That is also an experienced Brigade, of the 7th Aus Div (I think).

Anyway, still no signs that the Allies are stopping short of the "line of death". They are still running.

Madras: Falls on the 1st. Attacks earlier with one Brigade failed, forcing me to bring up a couple more units to finish the Fort unit.

I admit I waited an extra couple days to see what appeared as reinforcements on June 1; sure enough, an Engineer Bn and an HQ were added as POWs. I think it's gamey to go any further than that, even though I could have just walled off the city, cut supplies, and allowed it to accumulate starving units. Better to play it straight-up. I know Madras is one of the main Indian reinforcement points, along with Karachi.

7000 POWs is a good haul regardless. Allied Ground Losses are now at 10,220 VPs, and Luzon is still not liquidated.

Reinforcements: I am prepping a number of small units for the Central Pacific; we need to reinforce my paltry garrisons there. (veji1, I hope that Marianas comment wasn't a slip, but I am not unaware of a danger there, or to my whole flank in general).

The Marshalls need more ground troops, but otherwise I am cool with the airbase levels. I am building/fortifying the Marianas and Iwo Jima; never too soon to start!

If Dan makes a move to distract from India, the possibilities:

1. SUMATRA: A landing here would be a disaster! First priority for defenses, though I am sure I would get early-warning
2. SOUTHERN DEI: Yeah, I'm familiar with this one!
3. CENTRAL PACIFIC: In many ways, the most likely; it's a long way from India, and the USN is intact. This could mean a conservative landing in the Marshalls or Gilberts, or a more aggressive one in the Marianas.
4. SOLOMONS: I consider this not as likely; I think it's not a good area to go, but who knows.
5. KURILES: Allied 4Es (from attu?) have been buzzing my bases up there. If so, Dan can see I am not ignoring it, as I have garrisons. An early Allied attack on the Kuriles triggers all sorts of goodies for Japan, and Dan knows this, having been burned in his game with Miller. For that reason, I discount a move here, but you never know, which is why I reinforced it.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: John 3rd

I don't want to be the doubting Mufasa here but what is the point of making this stab across, as our author put it, the "Line of Death?" Taking any urban hex is harder then Hades. You will have to take SEVERAL that are well provisioned and garrisoned. Crossing this line means at LEAST 9-12 months more of campaigning here while your opponent can plan to hit you elsewhere and make the whole darned thing meaningless...

Yes, giving it a tasty PR name like "Line of Death" injects fear into The Opponent. Next will be "Shock and Awe."[:)]

The reenforcements are to be considered, yes. But, a lot of them arrive in Aden. They don't get to India is Karachi is gone, and/or if the sealift in Aden is sunk on supply runs beforehand, with surface and CVL raids on Karachi port.

Second, a lot of the reenforcements are fill to the device pools. Also good, BUT the fill takes time, and consumes a lot of supply. (There are threads on this. It's not insignificant.) CR's supply situaiton is not great with Madras and Calcutta gone, and fuel severely restricted by, again, Karachi taking/blockade. The mauling Q has done to LCUs presently in theater is also eating at the supply stocks, and those units will never really rebuild before he caulks them again.

Third, going straight at Karachi is the Oh S**t moment of the war for CR. He is completely naked in a naval sense, and Karachi is no Singapore in terms of CD or mines. I think Q has enough LCUs to do an amphib of Karachi with, say, 5 divisions plus engineers, and still press on Bombay supported by air. (Strat bomb the industry to take out Bombay's large industrial contribution? Only if the rail lines to the east can't be blocked with armor.) So long as CR eschews naval war, Q can sail all the supply into Karachi he needs, while blocking the eastern routes in with armor, paras, or slow-walking infantry. He can bombard Karachi at will, eating more supply. And he has air supriority at sea, and from Goa, to help press Bombay. It would be difficult, and risky, but it could end the war. 9-12 months? I think not.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: veji1

I wouldn't go for Karachi. Too hard, too long, you will be still besieging it while Canoerebel lands in the Marianas....

You should try to destroy the units you can and then prepare a stabilised front for resisting all the way to 1944 in India.

So, lose slowly then?

[Alfred]

Q-Ball,

I don't share your concerns about Sumatra because a weakness is only a weakness if it can be exploited. As things have developed, your opponent cannot exploit your Sumatran fears in 1942.

1. The Allies can only land on the west coast: up north at Sabang, in the centre Padang or Benkolen, in the south at Oosthaven. Of these sites, the only half decent port is Oosthaven, it is also the only one that allows for a quick overland march on Palembang. All four sites are very vulnerable to multiple Japanese airbases.

2. At best, your opponent might get an initial lodgement but he will lack the capacity to move beyond the beachhead due to the slowness in building up supply damps and airbases.

3. A thrust against Sumatra can now only come from Perth or Cape Town. The former can be very easily kept under survillance by subs off Perth, the latter can mbe monitored by a Glen equipped sub off the wormhole and assets stationed on Cocos and Christmas islands. The odds are that you will receive adequate warning to get critical air units into theatre and even if the KB is unable to get there in time for the initial landings, it should arrive in time to destroy the essential Allied follow up forces.

4. Allied CVs would be indispensable for this operation. They would have neither friendly LBA nor ports to shelter damaged ships.

Throughout the course of 1943, the Allied position will become better placed to contemplate a Sumatran landing. But that is purely academic because you will have achieved an auto victory before then, if you finish off India and Luzon decisively.

Alfred

[veji1]

Qball, the Marianas aren't a slip, just a genuine concern as an example. You know well that in this game the allies can be on the ropes for years but with one well timed offensive in just 3 months they could own the Marianas and Iwo-Jima for all I know and then you are in it deep... Maybe I am too cautious and for sure the gallant thing to do would be to try to finish off India, but I worry about what could happen to you in the Pacific or the DEI with all your troops tied in India when late 42 early 43 come knocking...

[DTurtle]

I have to agree with Bullwinkle. Attacking Karachi is the one way you have of forcing Canoerebel to fight with everything he has (including his carriers).

Your goal is an Auto-victory. Go for it.

As for your fears about counter-offensives: Are there any places he can take that endanger your chances of an auto-victory (because they are worth many points)?

[John 3rd]

ORIGINAL: Alfred

Q-Ball,

I don't share your concerns about Sumatra because a weakness is only a weakness if it can be exploited. As things have developed, your opponent cannot exploit your Sumatran fears in 1942.

1. The Allies can only land on the west coast: up north at Sabang, in the centre Padang or Benkolen, in the south at Oosthaven. Of these sites, the only half decent port is Oosthaven, it is also the only one that allows for a quick overland march on Palembang. All four sites are very vulnerable to multiple Japanese airbases.

2. At best, your opponent might get an initial lodgement but he will lack the capacity to move beyond the beachhead due to the slowness in building up supply damps and airbases.

3. A thrust against Sumatra can now only come from Perth or Cape Town. The former can be very easily kept under survillance by subs off Perth, the latter can mbe monitored by a Glen equipped sub off the wormhole and assets stationed on Cocos and Christmas islands. The odds are that you will receive adequate warning to get critical air units into theatre and even if the KB is unable to get there in time for the initial landings, it should arrive in time to destroy the essential Allied follow up forces.

4. Allied CVs would be indispensable for this operation. They would have neither friendly LBA nor ports to shelter damaged ships.

Throughout the course of 1943, the Allied position will become better placed to contemplate a Sumatran landing. But that is purely academic because you will have achieved an auto victory before then, if you finish off India and Luzon decisively.

Alfred

Summary is quite good and well reasoned, however, Dan has shown no inclination to commit his CVs ANYWHERE to this point in the campaign.

If you run with that thought then you are probably SAFE from an Allied counter-punch until early-43.

[Q-Ball]

The earliest a landing on Karachi could be contemplated would be approx. August; I wouldn't do it without at least 70+ prep. With 6+ Divisions prepping for Karachi, Dan will get some SigInt reports. He may dismiss that as future-thinking (overland), or maybe not. I wouldn't feel good about it without 10 divisions; because:

1. It's an urban hex, figures to be well-fortified, have CD guns, and a stack of units; not front-line divisions, but certainly recovering units. I have to plan as if there are 600+AV.
2. NOT taking it and having those divisions stranded would be a complete disaster; not only would I trigger 6 new allied Divisions, I could easily lose whatever was stranded.

Landing on Karachi is UBER-high risk.

Combat Report, June 2-6, 1942:

Benares: We are approaching Benares in the center of India; we mauled the 36th Indian Bde, and 254th Armored Bde, new additions to the rearguard. We are occassionally catching and nailing Allied units that fall behind, which is a good thing. That Australian Bde we nailed earlier should escape now after a couple retreats towards its own lines, but the damage is done. Anyway, that unit could have been rebuilt even if destroyed, just by combining the parent division.

Goa/Poona: We have a spearhead approaching Poona; once that is taken, we can rail-in a whole army and quickly reduce Bombay, then rail them back to the Delhi area. Now that I have a rail network, i can do the same thing the Allies can via rail.

Subs and Intel: My subs have been active lately, and provided some intel.

At SUVA, we torpedod an AP; I don't think we sank it, but it was loaded. That's more reinforcements we have seen for Fiji, including the convoy we wiped out last month.

At ATTU, lots of traffic; we torpedoed an AK that was carrying GUNS, then a TF with CL HONOLULU included shows up to cover more tranports; that is the first USN warship I have seen since December! No doubt covering landing, because Dan knows I have a couple cruisers around.

The original sub was sent home from damage, but another sub, I-6, torpedoed another AK with guns on board, THEN an ACM (so there must be mines at Attu as well). With guns and mines, Dan is clearly reinforcing the place.

We also torpedod an empty AK off Karachi. Allied subs have been quiet lately, no kills. There are a million of them off Colombo, but I have been avoiding that wolfpack.

Defenses: I am also beginning to attend more closely to defenses in the Pacific, as the risks mount from Allied action.

I am pulling the 2nd INF DIV from India, to use as a reserve at TRUK. This will be the only Inf Div in the Pacific. I am also routing 5th AMPHIB BDE to the Marshalls, along with more Nav Gds. An INF REGT is reinforcing Horn Island, and more troops on the way to Efate/Luganville.

With the lack of air battles in India, I have alot of airpower with nothing to do at the moment. The IJA bombers are all training on LOW-N, and I am sending several units to TRUK, along with all my Land-Based VAL and KATE units, plus some surplus ZEROS. I already have about 1/2 my Bettys out there. Any landing at this point would see some serious air oppossition, if not naval at this point.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball

The earliest a landing on Karachi could be contemplated would be approx. August; I wouldn't do it without at least 70+ prep. With 6+ Divisions prepping for Karachi, Dan will get some SigInt reports. He may dismiss that as future-thinking (overland), or maybe not. I wouldn't feel good about it without 10 divisions; because:

1. It's an urban hex, figures to be well-fortified, have CD guns, and a stack of units; not front-line divisions, but certainly recovering units. I have to plan as if there are 600+AV.

If you wait until August, it will surely be all of these, overland or by sea. If you have to wait until August, don't do it at all.

As far as stranding, as long as you have total sea control, nothing need be stranded.

[veji1]

What are you doing in China ? Couldn't you go on an offensive using all your airpower to soften his defenses ?

[Q-Ball]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball

The earliest a landing on Karachi could be contemplated would be approx. August; I wouldn't do it without at least 70+ prep. With 6+ Divisions prepping for Karachi, Dan will get some SigInt reports. He may dismiss that as future-thinking (overland), or maybe not. I wouldn't feel good about it without 10 divisions; because:

1. It's an urban hex, figures to be well-fortified, have CD guns, and a stack of units; not front-line divisions, but certainly recovering units. I have to plan as if there are 600+AV.

If you wait until August, it will surely be all of these, overland or by sea. If you have to wait until August, don't do it at all.

As far as stranding, as long as you have total sea control, nothing need be stranded.

Agreed, which is why I'm not doing it. If I do it earlier, then all the units will take enormous casualties on landing, because they won't be prepped enough. Even if I decided to do a Karachi landing immediately after it was obvious Dan wasn't going to hold Calcutta, the earliest would have been July, accounting for early preps.

It's too late for a major amphib landing anywhere before August

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball

Agreed, which is why I'm not doing it. If I do it earlier, then all the units will take enormous casualties on landing, because they won't be prepped enough. Even if I decided to do a Karachi landing immediately after it was obvious Dan wasn't going to hold Calcutta, the earliest would have been July, accounting for early preps.

It's too late for a major amphib landing anywhere before August

Preps are good, yes, but have you reconned Karachi? What's there?

Surprise is not to be underestimated. When you get ashore you'll take casualties, but you can then prep-in-place while enjoying perfect intel of what he's trying to sneak in by sea. If you take 5 divisions plus engineers they'll get ashore. He doesn't have, say, 3-4 divisions sitting there on defense. He would have exposed them or used them by now. Even so, you can check. You have a pretty good handle on what he CAN have there, OOB-wise. You could do a recon-by-para just before the landings to make sure if you're worried.

I think the supply situation in Karachi is bad enough, and you can make it worse, that he can't do a lot of offense to throw you off. I think you'd get ashore, bombard by land and sea, work on prepping and cutting off the land supply routes, invest Bombay with the rest plus your heavy bombers to make him sweat more and eat supply, and by August you'll still have your 70 prep, plus a severely attrited defense that hasn't been fed in two months.

It all comes down to sea power, and it always has.

I'll shut up now.[:)]

[Q-Ball]

Combat Report, June 8, 1942:

CHINA: Someone asked about China, and I suppose I should update it.

I hate China, this is a naval game after all, but it is what it is. With the post-patch garrison requirements, and our house-rule against STRAT bombing there, it's impossible to conquer for Japan. My objective has been to fight the Chinese on favorable turf, and establish a strong MLR that will allow me to use China for reinforcements elsewhere, or at least to not have to reinforce it.

Early-on, Dan evacuated the Wenchow pocket, and he fought me on the Central Plain around Nanyang-Loyang, and paid for it, with large Chinese casualties. He then withdrew to higher ground, which was prudent. We are still staring at each other in the woods between Sian and Nanyang.

I have launched attacks in the south, and have one planning for Liuchow, after which I'll probably re-position everyone for the defensive.

[Q-Ball]

Combat Report, June 9, 1942:

Jinx: As soon as I typed "Allied subs haven't sunk anything in awhile", sure enough a small xAK goes down off Korea. I have a number of convoys hauling resources from Port Arthur, that was the first time a ship was killed.

Merchant Fleet: I have written very little on my IJN merchant usage, since others (like Mike Solli), have more info and are smarter at it than I am. But in general, here is what I am doing with the fleet:

xAKLs: Most of these are resource hauling around the Home Islands, where their slow speed and short legs don't matter. I do have some doing local runs in the SRA, but mostly around Home Islands.
I have converted many of the KISOs to PB; they are slow, but I will use them as picket ships.
Most of the Tos'us I convert to ACMs, with a few PBs.
I don't convert many ANSYU-Cs to PBs; a few.

Most of the slow xAKs, like the GOZAN and MIYATI classes, are resource hauling. That is a perfect job for the 10kt GOZAN class.

Most of the 14kt small TOHO and ANSYU-Cs I converted to TROOP capacity; I like them as smaller, somewhat fast transports, and they can quickly deliver a unit to the perimeter.

The ADEN and LIMA classes are workhorses, because you get so many. I convert some to troop capacity, and some carry cargo.

I converted all of the FAST xAKs to carry troops (the YUSEN, KYUSHU classes). I will convert them all to AKs as well; they can really get troops somewhere fast, and have quicker unloads. These are the core of our combat transport fleet.

The xAPs of course are also useful for point to point transport.

In general, SLOWER ships are hauling resources, and faster ones I converted to troop carriers. I have ALOT of troops capacity, I expanded greatly to move into India. I am not pressed yet to convert it back, so I am leaving it.

I use the Small TKs to make several short OIL runs: Sakhalin to Honshu, Boela/Babo to Ambon, Hokkaido-Honsho, and Palembang to Sinagpore. In all cases, I am moving stuff to bigger ports for transfer to Home.

PRODUCTION: The TOJO is in production; over 100 lines are in operation. I shut off the OSCAR awhile ago in anticipation. I still have alot of NATE units, not on the front lines, but we are converting those obviously. I will keep some OSCAR units though due to range, particularly in the Pacific.

The HELEN is up to 70/mo, and I am shutting off the SALLY. LILLY has been out of production for months. I will keep the SALLY lines for now and may produce some, since they use a more available engine, but I really want to expand the HELEN to get to the IIa, which has armor.

The BETTY is produced here and there; we have had next to no BETTY losses, so we have plenty.

Map of India: See below

[Amoral]

What are the victory point totals? Do you have a plan to push hard for autovictory on the 1st of the year? It'll likely be your last window.

Are you frustrated at all that Canoe won't play? Has there been any naval action at all since you drove off his destroyer raiders in Feb. '42?

[Nemo121]

A 5 division landing on Karachi is just begging to be destroyed in place. 5 divisions is only 2,000 AV and while it won't be destroyed by CD guns ( Karachi starts with only 2 x 6" guns ) the reality is that a 2,000 AV landing facing a single well-experienced UK Division ( say 70% experience ) would, without any forts face roughly the following AV: 350 AV x 70% x 4 ( terrain bonus ) = 1,000 AV. Since it starts with 1 fort that's a 20% bonus = 1200 AV.

You should view 1 division as being the minimum defensive force there. With 1 division you won't shock and take the hex but you might well wear it down attritionally and then shock. The problem is that by now you should really expect more than 1 division as a garrison.


I don't think you'll take nearly as many casualties on landing as you expect though.... Also if you do invade and face recovering divisions then you shoudl expect to be able to wear them down in combat very rapidly. Recovering Bdes and divisions in AE are VERY, VERY vulnerable.


I think if you wait till August you are screwed but you could go now. With that said, overall, I think your indecision re: the level of commitment has doomed the Indian venture from an early stage. It might now be best to view it as a large-scale spoiling attack... That'll change the approach and not be compatible with an auto-victory attempt but it may be more long-term strategically viable.

[John 3rd]

Nemo is 'spot on' here. DON'T land here!

Everything inside me says crossing the LINE OF DEATH is a mistake. There is no realistic way to end up with all of India and you are begging for trouble from other quarters with 80% of the Army tied down here.

[janh]

That could be true.  You'd need a C&G style naval victory to be sure that you can focus solely for a year on India.  Japanese units probably aren't capable of a true blitz attack as would be needed now.

ed. Since it is pretty much excluded that Japan will keep the capability of performing further naval offensives into the war, mainly due to threat of carrier and land-based air, would it be a reasonable option to plan for further land offensives in India? Could a land campaign be extended into 43-44 with prospects of taking all of India, if KB could isolate it from OZ?

[Q-Ball]

Thanks Nemo and John for comments. I think a Karachi landing is crazy, and I am not sure India is truly doable. The garrison requirements to get all the way to Karachi are ridiculous, at least 2500 AV even if you skip a few places, which would chew-up 6 divisions. If Dan makes a stand at Bombay with anything more than 3 divisions, that makes that city pretty much untakeable in the short-run, with the heavy urban hex. There are many ways the Allies can save India against an even determined attack.

For the present, I am going on Bombay in force. That will probably be it, as I don't want to cross the line of death, and reducing Cawnpore or Lucknow doesn't buy me much at all.

I want to keep the pressure on, and force Dan to commit more troops and resources, though so far the only extras I have seen are the Australians. But we have destroyed quite a few British units, and pounded the RAF. Both these things should limit any offensives from India. At that point, I have to "only" worry about the USN.

June 10-20, 1942:

I haven't posted in awhile; nothing major has happened, but some quick updates.

Air Wars: As I approach Bombay and Cawnpore, the Allies are suddenly much more active in the air. They are bombing my forward elements, and I am sending fighters up to contest.

A couple combats did favor the Allies, though overall we are acheiving high kill ratios, particularly on Blenheim IVs, which are really terrible bombers. We shot down a pile of them today (see intel screen).

The RAF must be in bad shape. I am still seeing Mohawks and Buffalos, and he has lost over 170 Blenheims (that has to be almost all of them, right?), and 150 Hurricanes. Even with no combat the RAF struggles to fill out it's air units, so with all those losses, it has to be in terrible shape. Who knows though.

Trapped Units: Still cleaning up trapped UK units. A Ghurka Bde is almost toast, and the 20th Indian Div has been marching all over the place looking for an opening it seems. Not sure where they are going. We drop bombs on them daily.

The 44th Cav Regt is being attacked via air and almost obliterated.

Luzon: The last attack at Bataan was 2-1, and dropped the forts to 2. We are resting the troops, and one more Shock Attack should clear the place. The units there are a little beat-up, so we are going to prep the best ones for Mindanao, and the rest I will use as garrison troops while they rest.

Bypassing Luzon, and clearing it with sub-standard troops is the right call. Although it's taking longer, I haven't committed more than 2/3 of the 16th Division, 2 Garrison Bdes, and a couple Nav Gd units.

Allied Activity: I have observed a number of convoys at Attu, via sub. We sank 2 xAKs, and ACM, and an escort vessel, but a strong escort showed-up and chased off my Subs. Still, that is interesting activity. Is Dan planning a move on the Kurlies? (don't answer that!)

I have moved troops to the top two Kuriles, and feel pretty good overall about my defenses there. We'll keep digging, but it would not be an easy target.

I spotted 2 USN CAs off Melbourne via sub. That didn't tell me too much, other than there are USN CAs in southern Australia. I couldn't tell where they were going.

INTEL SCREEN: Check out the Intel Report. At the moment, we are about 3.5 to 1; that should go up a bit once Bataan surrenders, but I think I'll fall just short of 4-1.

Last turn was a good one for AIR, but overall, I have had alot of OPS losses. In fact, I have suffered a disproportionate share of OPS and FLAK losses, while Dan has suffered way more Ground and A2A. That's all normal.

Shipping VPs are pretty average. I have lost a number of transports, but hardly any warships (2 CL and 3 DD). Other than the first couple days where Dan lost 8 BB/BC, 2 CL, he has lost hardly anything; just a couple cruisers.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Nemo121

A 5 division landing on Karachi is just begging to be destroyed in place. 5 divisions is only 2,000 AV and while it won't be destroyed by CD guns ( Karachi starts with only 2 x 6" guns ) the reality is that a 2,000 AV landing facing a single well-experienced UK Division ( say 70% experience ) would, without any forts face roughly the following AV: 350 AV x 70% x 4 ( terrain bonus ) = 1,000 AV. Since it starts with 1 fort that's a 20% bonus = 1200 AV.

I think your math is off here. Karachi, from what I can determine, is a light gray/light urban hex that enjoys a x2 defensive terrain bonus. Dark gray/heavy urban hexes, like Bombay, have the x4. That alone significantly skews your risk assessment.

Also, I don't know what British LCUs are left in this game, but in mine--with less combat to be sure--in September 1942 only one British division has 70 or more experience. Most are in the low 50s. The Indian Army units are all over the map.

I would say that a bigger factor in an amphib of Karachi would be Fort levels. You assume 1, and that is almost certainly low. That is why I included engineers in my proposed landing force. I also think Karachi would need significant air strike investments to hold off fort repairs. To Q-Ball's side of the ledger, however, Allied engneers building forts and repairing airfields have to eat too, and if they have replacemnts on consume those additional supplies as well.

Second, my advocacy of taking Karachi by sea has always been predicated on supply denial, which Q-Ball has to date not undertaken by sea, or by land from the eastern side. The land side has necessarily been impossible to accomplish yet, although he is now far enough north that moves to that end could be undertaken with some risk. The denial of Karachi inbound supply has always been the key to NW India, and he has not used the IJN to do so. By now his opponent has had time to slip in major units and supply quantities (or none, or little, to be fair) with no, zero, nada naval investment or risk of loss. Q-Ball relates the total Allied combatant ship losses to date, a tiny butcher's bill. CR has Sir Robined on steriods, and he's paid no naval price for it, and now, probably, will avoid auto-victory as a further reward.

Third, I advocated reconning Karachi in advance, either with flying boats, or Glens, or with a small para drop. I agree that there is a potential force equation on the ground at Karachi that makes the arithmetic impossible. If Q-Ball knows what is at Karachi he has not shared it in this AAR to my knowledge.

Fourth, IF supply can be made the determining factor, the "Line of Death" becomes irrelevant, and even damaging to the Allies. Those new forces to some extent eat supply to switch on devices, and if Karachi can be brought below the x2 supply demanded level, NO replacements, for any unit, will accrue, nor will devices in the pool be brought out, nor willl any TOE upgrades be possible there.

Fifth, supply denial in this initial post-landing phase would require some risky maneuvering east of Karachi to seal the land routes from Dehli, etc. This is the hardest part of the plan, and might invite CR's thrusting eastward to punch a hole in any seige wall established. He might succeed, in the short term, although his supply situation would probably prevent more than one good try, and the LCUs remaining should it fail, or Q-Ball close the gap, would not recover in beseiged Karachi.

Sixth, besides the secondary land war objectives of activating, and killing, the L-O-Death reenforcements--for a massive VP harvest BTW--investing Karachi has the MAIN objective of finally getting the USN into play while the IJN has any hope of killing or significantly wounding it in the one map location Q-Ball has laboriously deprived of ANY repair facilities. A wounded USN CV probably dies. A wounded IJN CV makes Colombo and lives. USN CV VP rates go at about 350 per, before aircraft losses. Karachi base itself is worth only 450 VP.

You should view 1 division as being the minimum defensive force there. With 1 division you won't shock and take the hex but you might well wear it down attritionally and then shock. The problem is that by now you should really expect more than 1 division as a garrison.

All true. Which is why he needs recon, and lots of own-force supply coming in, and a land operation to cut west-bound supply runs, and some time to wear down the defenders. However, the real strategic focus of a Karachi strike is to get the USN into the theater. To that end, Karachi falling quickly is not necessary, or perhaps not even desirable.

I don't think you'll take nearly as many casualties on landing as you expect though.... Also if you do invade and face recovering divisions then you shoudl expect to be able to wear them down in combat very rapidly. Recovering Bdes and divisions in AE are VERY, VERY vulnerable.

I agree. Which is why I advocated getting ashore by hook or by crook, then sitting to recover and do prep while daring CR to burn supply in trying to throw 5 divisions back into the sea with whatever he has managed to accumulate at Karachi. I don't think he could, and at that point time is not on his side if his naval response forces are far away.

I think if you wait till August you are screwed but you could go now. With that said, overall, I think your indecision re: the level of commitment has doomed the Indian venture from an early stage. It might now be best to view it as a large-scale spoiling attack... That'll change the approach and not be compatible with an auto-victory attempt but it may be more long-term strategically viable.

Going NE instead of striaght north from Ceylon was a mistake IMO, if auto-vicotry was the objective. I believe you even disagreed with striiking Ceylon. I thought that phase was reasonable for the reasons Q-Ball stated: to destroy prime British units, to gain a shipyard and large airfield, and to create a strategic "hinge" whereby CR did not know which direction Q-Ball would move next. The Ceylon op was fast and relatively cost-free for him. It secured the southern approaches to the theater. I think it was the right move. But following that success with NE India AND the central coast gave away time and momentum.

At this point, if auto-vic is no longer on the table, I would advocate a fairly agressive pull-out from India, since so much is invested far away from other Allied centers of strength. I'm not sure what value most of India has if not all of it is held, especially with coming Allied aircraft models, significant TOE upgrades to the Indian Army, and growing USN carrier units, especially CVEs, which offer the option of multiple spoiling actions in North, Central, and SouthPac. After that, the Essexes, and the game enters a new phase.

It appears from Q-Ball's comments that I'm preaching to an empty house. He has decided against a Karachi move, and that's certainly his right. It's his game. I decided to write this last appeal to the idea because of the x2 vs. x4 defensive bonus issue I began with. But also, to say one more time: It would have been GLORIOUS had it worked, and forever put AFBs on notice that the Sir Robin comes with a noose.