Now when the land rings with the clash of arms –No soliinvictus please

[fcharton]

December 15, 1941

Fragrant harbor…

… (that’s Hong Kong for you, gaijins), fell to a deliberate attack. Two previous attempts, on the 12th and 13th, had reduced the forts. The infantry rested one day while bombardment continued.

Ground combat at Hong Kong (77,61)
Japanese Deliberate attack
Attacking force 23942 troops, 337 guns, 218 vehicles, Assault Value = 698
Defending force 5807 troops, 131 guns, 76 vehicles, Assault Value = 167

Japanese adjusted assault: 570
Allied adjusted defense: 177
Japanese assault odds: 3 to 1 (fort level 0)
Japanese forces CAPTURE Hong Kong !!!

Japanese ground losses:
573 casualties reported
Squads: 7 destroyed, 30 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 39 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 16 disabled

Allied ground losses:
6283 casualties reported
Squads: 281 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 488 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 22 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 175 (175 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Vehicles lost 85 (85 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Units destroyed 6

Casualties for the battle for Hong Kong were light (over the four days, only 5 combat squads were destroyed). Using deliberate attack, instead of shocks, and resting troops before the final onslaught, probably explains this.

The fall of Hong Kong frees one division. I have another one waiting in Shanghai (I moved restricted troops to meet the garrison requirement), and yet another in Japan (the 33rd Division, also from Japan, is arriving in Thailand soon).

Where should those troops go? So far, I have not thought hard about the allocation of my forces. I sent first line troops to the front, and reserves in the right “general direction”, that is Formosa, Vietnam and Thailand.

Discounting China, which is a war of its own, I have to commit significant ground forces to three areas. Malaya, where the enemy has about 1200 AV (3 division equivalent, my “rough” unit of count is the DE, 1DE being about 400 AV), Luzon, where there are about 5 DE, and Burma, which seems not to be reinforced, probably over one division equivalent. My experience in HK suggests that, against prepared positions, a 3:1 numerical advantage allows for a quick and painless victory. A 2:1 ratio is probably a minimum.

At present, I have two divisions in Malaya (5th and 18th), plus assorted regiments. This should amount to about 3 DE, another division is on its way. The Imperial Guard division, and several regiments are marching towards Rangoon. This is about 2 DE. Finally, in Luzon, I have about 750 AV on the ground (almost 2DE) and another waiting in Formosa (or the Pescadores).

Troops committed so far would therefore represent : 4 DE in Malaya, 2 in Rangoon, and 3 in Luzon.

I have 4 divisions in reserve. The 33rd is arriving in Bangkok soon, I have one in Hong Kong, one in Shanghai, and one in Osaka. Several independent regiments can be mobilized as well, for a total reserve probably around 5 or 6 DE.

This is not enough to fight on the three fronts at the same time. I plan to go for Singapore and Rangoon first, and take care of Luzon later.

In Malaya, since the enemy is falling back to Singapore, I expect about 1000 AV there. But the battle for Singapore will happen after my spearheads have moved south, and opened the railway lines. I am now in Georgetown, 10 hexes of main road from Johore Baru (just north of Singapore). Marching infantry needs about 15 days to cover this distance, plus a few to fight and rest. In other words, the build up for the Singapore battle will probably happen in the first week of January, and the city should normally fall in mid January.

In Burma, the Imperial Guards and several independent regiments are marching on Moulmein. They should be there for Christmas, and the battle for Rangoon could happen in the first week of January. I believe the troops committed so far are enough to take the coast. Recon will confirm this (I hope). But I intend to send the 33rd division, when it arrives, to Pisanuloke. If I need reinforcements in Burma, it is about 2 weeks away from Rangoon. If I don’t need it now, it is on a railway line connected to Malaya.

The rest of my reserve will probably be sent to Bangkok as well.


The other large battle will happen in Luzon. The enemy is apparently sending everyone to defend Clark Field. That would mean about 2000 AV (perhaps a bit more since a couple of Philippine replacements arrive in the beginning of the war). I don’t think I can muster enough forces for an early onslaught. Clark will be attacked after Singapore has fallen. I now have about 750 AV on the island. I can easily move that to around 1000. Would this allow the enemy to counterattack? Perhaps, even though I doubt my opponent would take this risk. I need to think more about this.


For the rest, I am landing in Brunei today, and Kuching tomorrow or the day after. Tarakan, Balikpakan and Singkawang are also high on the list.


My schedule, at this point…

I want Borneo for Christmas
I want to spend new Years eve with the troops in the Celebes (Kendari, and Macassar), Mindanao and Jolo.
Rangoon should fall in the beginning of January Singapore later that month.

I am still undecided about the next moves. Should Timor be targetted first, to increase pressure on Northern Australia, cut Java, and invade Java from the south? What about Sumatra? And New Guinea?




Battles in Hubei

My original plans for China in early 1942 were to seize the North West, and cut the Sichuan basin from the refineries in Sian. I wanted this to be over by June, save perhaps mop up operations in Turkestan, and a longer than expected siege of Sian.

After that, I would either go for a northern expedition towards Sichuan, or a southern campaign in Yunnan, towards Kunming and Paoshan, to sever the Burma road for good (and make the hump a very chancy affair).


For my early 1942 campaign, there would be three staging areas : Hankow, Taiyuan and Kweisuei.

A southern column, would leave Hankow to Sian and the road south of it which connects it to Chengtu (that should be Baoji/Paotsi),
A central column, would push west (south west in real life) from Taiyuan to the plains of the Wei, east of Sian.
A northern column would leave Kweisuei to Ningsia and Lanchow, and to Hami and Urumchi.

Lines of communication for the northern and central columns follow the good railroads in northern China. There is very little risk there. For the southern thrust, a smaller operations in the central plains, meant to isolate Chengchow and Loyang, and to secure Nanyang would be needed. I am sending armor for this.



At present, my Taiyuan column is on the move, pushing several Chinese corps in front of her. In the north, concentration is finished in Kweisuei and Paotow, units are beginning to move west, along the Yellow river. No enemy is in sight.

Chinese units in the regions have been very cooperative. Most infantry corps in the plains fled nicely to Chengchow and Loyang, sparing me the bother of chasing them, waiting to be besieged. This suits me fine, I don’t want to destroy them, just to keep them quiet, and slightly hungry. In the North, most enemies fled to the mountains between Taiyuan and Paotow, or to Yenan. Again, I will not try to resist them…

In the south, around Hankow, the initial buildup is about finished, but the situation is not unfolding according to plan.
(continued on next post, apparently I am limited to one picture per message)

[fcharton]

December 15th (continued)

Here is a map of the Hankow-Sinyang region.



Note the big stacks in Loyang and Chengchow (north east corner), blocked by my troops in Kaifeng and Tsiaotso. I am now moving west from Kaifeng, to cut them off the rest.

Around Hankow and Sinyang, the situation is complicated. I have six full sized divisions here. One in Wuchang, another one in Hankow, one east of Hankow, in the woods, two between Hankow and Sinyang, and one in the woods north of Hankow (retreated from Ichang). With them are a number of collaborationist (RGC) divisions, and independent regiments.

Apart from the Wuchang and Hankow garrisons, who would stay here to protect my southern flank and keep the enemy worried about a possible move on Changsha, all of them shall march on Nanyang. This is my southern column.

Yet, it seems the enemy is looking for a fight here. Three days ago, he sent two corps between Hankow and Sinyang. Unfortunately for them, I had two divisions and a tank regiment there. They are now in the woods, attacking my tanks (which pursued them) at impossible odds (1:121 yesterday…)

North west of Hankow, in the woods, I have one good Japanese division, and two collaborationist Chinese divs (RGC Temp). Total strength is close to 700 AV, and I have replaced the original Chinese commanders of the RGC units by good leaders (this is very expensive, but I have PP). Several Chinese Corps are moving towards this stack.

I am not sure I understand what my opponent is hoping to achieve. At first, he might have wanted to surround my forces retreating from Ichang. But he has already lost some of his troops, and will lose more if he goes on attacking with small numbers. He might, then, commit his Ichang troops, and a huge battle will happen, but I believe I have more troops in the region than he does, and since communications in this area are good, I can reinforce the battle. If a large battle occurs, this will delay me for a couple of weeks, but I don't think his front around Ichang can recover. If it turns very bad for the Chinese, it might even be worth sparing one division to move to Ichang, and cut Changsha from the north. This was not my goal, but if it come free...

So, I am now moving more troops towards this wooden hex. I believe I am happy with this huge annihilation battle, to try to shatter as many of his corps as possible. This will delay the move on Nanyang, and my southern thrust, but if I manage to reduce enemy strength in the region, it will also protect my southern flank, once I extend westwards towards Sian.


South, I began bombing Changsha a few days ago. I am not interested in Changsha, but I want to keep the enemy wondering (especially since the battle in Hubei, delaying my move of Sian, hides my intention in the region).

Yesterday, the Flying Tigers appeared there, and butchered my bombers and their escorts. Since there are less fighters to sweep off the Philippines and Singapore, I am sending over all the zeroes I can spare. Let us see what happens.



Francois

[fcharton]

December 16th 1941

Here war is simple like a monument;
A telephone is speaking to a man;
Flags on a map assert that troops were sent;
A boy brings milk in bowls. There is a plan
(WH Auden)


Clobbering Chinese corps

In the woods south of Sinyang, the 13th Tank regiment attacked the remnants of two Chinese corps and a HQ. I was wondering whether this would work in closed terrain. It does.

Ground combat at 86,49 (near Sinyang)
Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 574 troops, 0 guns, 94 vehicles, Assault Value = 52
Defending force 5202 troops, 66 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 67

Japanese adjusted assault: 52
Allied adjusted defense: 19
Japanese assault odds: 2 to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(+), disruption(-), morale(-)
experience(-)
Attacker: leaders(+)

Allied ground losses:
1386 casualties reported
Squads: 109 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 130 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 6 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 2 (2 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Units retreated 3

Note how all casualties are destroyed. The two corps, badly defeated three days ago, now lost a third of their strength.

In the woods close to Ichang, an IJA and two RGC divisions bombarded enemy units which just moved in. We have two “M sized” Chinese Corps (Chinese corps come in three size : L, around 200-350 AV, M a little over 100 AV, and S around 50 AV). I have twice their numbers in raw AV, and certainly better experience and supply. I am trying a deliberate attack tomorrow.


In the north, an M-sized Chinese corps was mauled in Kweisui (the enemy does not know, but attacking staging areas with small forces is not a good idea). The 3rd Provincial Corps (not such a bad Chinese unit, btw) lost 2000 of his 4500 troops. Again, almost no squad was disabled.

Also in the north, my central column probed an enemy stack, in good defensive hex. I am trying deliberate attack tomorrow, but if it does not work at once, I will reinforce the hex. The battle in Hubei is delaying my move towards Sian. My central column having the shortest route, I am in no rush.


In the air, I swept Changsha. The AVG apparently had left (to Chungking, I would believe), but I downed a few Chinese fighters.


Suave mari magno

Around the Mariannas, surface ships finished the merchant boats they could find. I think this is the end of the Manila column. An Aircraft Tender, a mine sweeper, and a tanker were sunk. So far, I have sunk two oilers and five tankers.

Those are the only surface ships I could find on the map. No enemy ships were seen around Kuching or Miri, no raids were conducted in the Celebes or around Ambon. I expect my opponent to be planning something big. When I go for Singkawang? Or perhaps against my Balikpapan invasion? But for now, I am enjoying a nice and calm week.

Brunei fell today, Kuching was invaded and will fall tomorrow. Over Miri, B17 appeared, but were chased by the Zeroes I installed there, two B17 are reported as ops losses (15 B17 are reported shot). Over Manila and Clark, only one or two Warhawks appear now when I sweep. I believe we are at the bottom of the barrel. Over Singapore, intelligence still report 40 fighters, but my opponent is probably standing them down to try and conserve them. More than 50 Buffaloes have beendestroyed, so far.

Under the sea, I am trying to be methodical, sending ASW task forces against every submarine I can detect. I want to drive enemy subs away from the coasts and my ports.

Today, SS O-19 and SS KXI were both hit once, and SS Permit was damaged, off the coast of Japan, and appeared on the sunk list. She might still be afloat, but the trip back home will probably be rough.



Francois

[fcharton]

December 17th, 1941

Jungle hops in Borneo
Kuching fell today, 1000 of the 1400 defenders were casualties, the others retreated West. My landing party only had 120 casualties in return, with no destroyed squad. The troops who invaded Brunei yesterday are now leaving for Jesselton, and I am sending the Kuching party to Singkawang. Unless the place has been reinforced or I get ambushed on the way, the northern coast of Borneo will be mine by the 20th. Pontianak will be invaded overland. Future goals are Billiton or, better still, Bangka, to inderdict the sea lanes out of Singapore and Palembang.

Tarakan and Balikpapan forces are now on the move, I expect them to arrive in 3 and 5 days. Christmas, as I said… Reinforcements for Ambon should arrive tomorrow. My idea is to settle that, and then move on. Timor is the logical next step, but a lateral move to Macassar, to prepare an early landing in South Java could be an interesting alternative. Macassar and Kendari forces are being formed now. I expect them to land in about 10 days.

Around the Celebes, what I need now is to move support troops, that is, engineers to build the bases and ports, and support for airbases, and then planes, recon first, then Betties and escorts. I also need to form more ASW patrols in the area. My short term goals in the region are to disrupt communications between Java and Northern Australia, and to prepare for the oil/fuel convoys from East Borneo.

In Borneo, there really are two goals. In the North West, I want to interdict the sea lanes. In the North and East, the objective is to prepare to take away the fuel and oil. Unless something terrible happens, the Borneo oilfields will be captured undamaged (except for those in Miri). These 600 oil centres will triple Japan oil production. Having it begin in January 1942 is a very good thing.

Down the Malaya lanes
Troops are moving south in three columns. One infantry regiment (21st) is moving along the eastern coast, towards Kuantuan. Another regiment (56th) is chasing the enemy along the railroad track, south of Kota Bharu. Today, they defeated the 8th Indian Brigade. Combats will continue tomorrow. My main force is now moving to Taiping, which should fall tomorrow (recon tells me it is abandoned). Next step is Kuala Lumpur, where troops should arrive in a week. We will then see if the enemy intends to defend the Kuantan, Temuloh, Kuala line.

Over Singapore, the Buffaloes sortied today. My opponent perhaps thought I would not be sweeping. So far, 66 Buffaloes were downed. This means there will be little air force available for the defense of Sumatra and Java.

The Malaya invasion will now be a bit boring. I will probably be in Kuala around Christmas, and move reinforcement there by rail. Then, I will have my regiments mop up Kuantan and Temuloh, while the main force moves to Malacca, and the hex south of it, which will be the staging point for the final advance. All my forces should regroup in Malacca by the first of January. Then there will either be a first battle in Mersing and Johore Bharu, or a drive on Singapore for the great battle.

Victory in mid January seems possible.

China, again…
Sweeps went on today over Changsha, a few Chinese fighters were downed, the AVG is nowhere to be seen. In the south, I am bombing whatever units I can find in clear terrain. I get some 50 casualties every time, mostly disabled squads, that will cost precious supplies to repair.

Two large battles happened, in the woods south of Ichang, and in the mountain hex, on the railway line to Sian. Around Ichang, my Japanese division, together with two collab divs, attacked three Chinese corps, slightly superior in numbers. I lost 800 men, to 900 chinese. I will rest and try again. I am sending reinforcements. My goal here is to break the Chinese force before it is reinforced.

In the mountains, north of Kaoping, two Japanese divisions fought four Chinese corps and two headquarters, but those troops are pretty weak, and were outnumbered 2:1. Defensive terrain resulted in losses on both side, about 800 casualties each (but the Chinese lose more squads). Reinforcements are arriving. I need to pass here. The bad thing is that the terrain helps the defender a lot. The good thing is that, once this force is broken, the road to Sian is open. And it becomes possible to isolate Yenan and the central plains.

[fcharton]

December 17.5, 1941

I don’t feel like playing a turn, today. So instead of producing yet another boring AAR, I will ramble about the game system. Caveat lector!


Interlude : Ground Combat Reports

Since the beginning of this game, I have been wondering how accurate my knowledge of enemy losses is. Recently, while looking at Ground Combat Reports, I noticed something. Here is an example

Japanese ground losses:
824 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 48 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 37 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 8 disabled

Allied ground losses:
266 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 49 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 45 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled

If you look at the casualties, the Allies clearly won the engagement, but if you look at squads lost or disabled, then you almost have parity. Unless Japanese squads are about three times the size of allied squads, those two numbers don’t match. Which one (if any) should be trusted, then?

I had a look at Tracker. The number of disabled Japanese squads in this hex went up 41, non combat and engineer went up 45. There is a slight difference which might be due to disabled squads recovering. Tracker confirms the number of destroyed squads. Tracker figures are, unsurprisingly, the same as in the game.

I did a second test, on another stack which had fought that day, and arrived at the same conclusion. Disabled and destroyed squads in the combat report correspond to reality (up to a 5-6 squad difference, which might be due to recovery), no FOW there. In this specific case, the combat result is much better than it seemed at first.

What about the losses? I used two successive game saves, and compared unit strengths. Over that turn, infantry went down 490, support went down 204, and engineers went down 1. Actual losses would therefore be 695.

Now, assuming all IJA squads have 17 men, support 10 men and engineers 8, and that disabled squads count as half their size in casualties (figures come from the device screen of the game, half size rule from the manual), total Japanese losses for this battle would amount to 695 (give or take a few units, my calculations are approximate). Bingo!

If we apply the same calculation (with Chinese squads at 12), Allied casualties should be 535. Apparently, only half of them got reported.


Let us now follow this hex over time (this result comes from my battles in the mountain hex north of Kaoping, on the 17th and 19th). On the 17th, the combat report (for Japan) said :

Attacking force 23173 troops, 243 guns, 101 vehicles, Assault Value = 808
Defending force 15228 troops, 147 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 428

Japanese ground losses:
956 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 30 disabled
Non Combat: 2 destroyed, 78 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 5 disabled

Allied ground losses:
872 casualties reported
Squads: 6 destroyed, 76 disabled
Non Combat: 5 destroyed, 65 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 6 disabled

Using the above formula, I estimate actual casualties for Japan at 702, and for the Allies at 927. After the battle, Japanese forces would be 22 471, and Allied forces 14 301 strong.

On the 19th, the combat report said,

Attacking force 22589 troops, 243 guns, 101 vehicles, Assault Value = 775
Defending force 14464 troops, 147 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 372

This suggests both forces “repaired” more than 100 casualties of disabled squads (and in particular that the Chinese are still in supply).


So, what did I learn today?

- That whereas those casualty figures look good on AAR, they should be taken with a grain of salt.
- That destroyed/disabled figures, and strengths provided in the AAR are the actual values.
- That you can easily estimate real losses, and know whether your opponent is repairing his disabled squads.


Francois

[fcharton]

Beginning tomorrow, be a happy man
Raise horses, chop wood, see the world.
Beginning tomorrow, care about cereals, and vegetables
I will have a house, facing the sea, and flowers in spring.
(Haizi)

It has been a month since I advertised for an opponent. It has been two weeks since this game began. And I am already getting lazy.

I need to react. If nothing is done about it, this AAR will soon be like
“Yesterday, in a masterfully planned operation, my troops siezed Thatuglyplace. At sea, the opponent had luck, as SS Fink sunk TK Cooltanker, but I got revenge on HMS Stiffupperlip. In the air my Naughts downed 13 Holycows over Klangblang. My infantry got defeated in Tsaonima, the ground combat model is definitely borked. My strategic plans now are to invade more bases and sink as many enemy ships as I can. Here is the full combat report.”

I need to react, or I will lose the real war in this game: the battle against the system. I am already yielding to snug carelessness. You know, that little voice that goes “Let’s just try that, for the fun of it, see what happen, we got other divisions and cruisers, haven’t we?).

And I am beginning to feel the early symptoms of Compulsive Management Disorder. “Let’s check once more if my 40 exp pilots improved overnight. let’s redo that whole air production scheme, for the third time in a week, let’s check all the bases…

So, beginning tomorrow, I will try to
- allot a fixed amount of time to each turn, to cut on procrastination, and carelessness
- decide my turn in advance, and without looking too much at map details: the closer you look, the less focused you become
- make this AAR a bit less boring and repetitive, and resist the temptation to discuss every action, no matter unsignificant.


December 18th, 1941

Calm seas and prosperous voyages

The more I read other AAR, the more I discover the total absence of Allied surface ships in my game is quite uncommon. After the initial coups, there were no raids, no attempts at supplying Rangoon or the Phillipines, no serious attempt at evacuating Malaysia. Did all ships flee? I doubt it. Is my opponent just Robining away? This does not match his character. I am bracing for something very bold, anytime soon.

In the meantime, I am invading Borneo. Today, troops landed in Jesselton. I am sending ships back to Brunei (they have unloaded the troops and enough supplies for the beachhead to hold for a while), to avoid damage from the coastal guns. I will wait a day, for disruption to fall, before I attack. This seems to work best against relatively small opposition. I shall land in Singkawang and Tarakan tomorrow, and in Balikpapan the day after.

Submarines are active, and getting slightly unnerving. I am losing one of two ships to them, every day. The enemy does not seem to care about detection and shallow water, so I am also getting a number of ASW attacks every day. Not all of them succeeded, but over the first 12 days of the war, four submarines are reported sunk. I would love to keep that pace…


Supply at first glance

Even though I do understand supply is an important aspect of this game, I believe I must take some time before I begin acting on it. Therefore, I have been tracking supply usage since the beginning of the war

The first reports from Tracker were terrifying… I was using 50k fuel per day, sometimes 100k, supply was also falling fast. I spent most of last week end trying to figure out why, until I realized (late Sunday) that one report (Industry Global), was incorrect in the version I used (1.7.0). I updated to version 1.7.1. It now makes sense.

Globally, supply stockpiles are stable, perhaps slightly increasing. HI stocks are going up. I clearly need to convert armament factories into vehicle factories, and Naval shipyards into Merchants, but I don’t think I need to expand the industry. This means I can bomb Chinese industry if I want, I am not going to need much of it, once I capture it. Resources are fine as well, I have stocks for about three years now.

Fuel, and oil, are the bottleneck (I’m sure you would have guessed). Every day, I am refining a little more than 10 000 fuel points, and my stocks go down 20k points. This puts my daily usage at 30k fuel points. Recently, about 3k points were taken by spoilage in Sapporo. This place begins the game overstacked. I am doing my utmost to solve it, but some of the stock will spoil.

There remaining 28k are roughly split in two halves. 14.5k are required by the Heavy Industry, mostly in the Home Islands. The rest is used by ships in task forces. At this rate, my current stocks (7.6 millions, including bunkers) would last for about a year.

Interestingly, if I did not need to fuel ships, my fuel stocks, at current production, could probably last the whole war. In other words, Japan starts the game low on fuel, because it needs to move its ships.

I draw two conclusions from this.

1- I need extra refineries in the regions where my ships operate. Moving fuel to from the DEI to Japan, then from Japan to Truk or Cam Ranh, so that ships can refuel there and operate in the DEI, is plain stupid.
2- I need to minimize fuel usage. A day out with KB costs several thousand fuel points, I do not want to use KB just for the fun of it. Cargoes should, as much as possible, travel loaded, and on the shortest possible routes. Industry expansion uses fuel. I want to convert rather than expand. When possible, units should move by train, rather than ship.


Francois
PS. I did not mention the oil. Well, yeah, Japan needs oil to refine fuel, and oil is in the DEI. You knew that before, eh? Seriously, I have things to say about oil, but that's for another time.

[Captain Cruft]

You can repair and/or expand Refineries/HI & LI in both the DEI and Malaya. It is always better to use the Resources/Oil/Fuel locally rather than having to ship it home. Especially since HI points can "teleport" and you have an abundance of Supply to feed the repairs and expansions.

Another important thing is to try to avoid consuming fuel in the Home Islands. One way to do this is to use Replenish TF at Sea and suck the fuel out of whatever transports are disbanded in port. It won't always be possible but its a good idea if you can do it and the savings will really add up over time.

[fcharton]

Hi Captain Cruft,

Thanks again, very interesting points! Two comments on yours.

Bunker fuel
Recent versions of Tracker show that fuel reserves in ship bunkers can represent some 15-20% of Japanese fuel stocks. Considering that a large number of Japanese ships do not need to sail, this is an important aspect. By the way, if Floyd or Damian read this, I have a question... At game start, my Fuel reserves were 7.2 million points (including bunkers). On game turn 5, all bunkers apparently filled up, and my total went up to 7.7 million. Any idea where this half million fuel cam from? They are for real, eh? I'm not complaining, of course, but still...

Anyway, I noticed three things about bunker fuel.
1- it is "ship fuel": you can transfer it to other ships, via replenish at sea, but not to bases or industry. This means you need to be prudent with refuels (I think this is your point about the Home Islands). Somehow, you have two kinds of fuel : "regular fuel", the one you keep in bases, and tankers, that can be used by industry and ships, and "ship fuel", restricted to naval usage. Once fuel gets into a bunker, it becomes "ship fuel".
2- it does not spoil, and as such is a good way to keep fuel in ports which over produce. This is probably an interesting solution to the "Miri-Brunei conundrum": ship part of the oil and fuel they produce, but also refine the oil, and use it to fuel ships, and turn some ships into mini oilers.
3- if you count bunker fuel in your fuel stocks, then losing a ship costs its bunker fuel. This suggests you should not refill your convoys too often.

Right now, I have lots of ships waiting in Japanese ports. Most of them with their bunkers full. Some of them should (and will) be used to refuel convoys and the like,, but it might be interesting to send a number of them to ports closer to the front, and to disband there. Then, they can serve as gas stations, and free a number of tankers for their real role : moving the oil/fuel back to Japan, or large ports without spoilage.

I need to think more about ship fuel usage (Floyd and Damian, if you are reading this, this would be a welcome addition to Tracker), but if the fuel expense to move these ships closer to the front is not too high, it could be an interesting idea.

Local use of resources and oil
The more I think about it, the more I believe this is the right way to handle SRA resources and oil. There are just too many side benefits

- you don't need to move the oil, or resources back to Japan
- refined fuel is available for ships, close to the front
- refining, and industry produce supplies. The closer they are to the front, the better
- you don't need to move any HI point you build, you can save them, they don't spoil
- you can move the fuel or oil to large ports in the region, using small tankers, in small TF. This allows you to keep the valuable large TK into big and well escorted TF.

The only drawbacks I see are :
- fuel spoils, oil does not... Once you refine the fuel, you need to move it out
- repairing and expanding DEI industry costs supplies, it it not effective supplywise. But trading supplies for more/better use of fuel is probably a winning proposition.

This leads to one conclusion : enemy industry should be captured, repaired, and used. The exception might be chinese industry. I believe the oilfields should be captured intact, but bombing refineries, heavy industry, and light industry (at least for inland areas) look like a good idea. Supply shortage is the road to victory in China.

Thanks again for these ideas, comments are welcome, as usual.

Francois

[fcharton]

December 19th, 1941
No quote, no subtitles, broth and stale bread for dinner, today...

In Hong Kong, enemy minefields are being cleared and the port will be operating soon. Two infantry regiments from Lan Song are moving towards Pakhoi. The short term plan is to clear the coastal plain. There is no hurry to move on Nanning (although troops might get there just to stop the industry). The plan is to cut it from the north, by going for Wuchow and Liuchow first (unless, of course, the enemy decides to evacuate it).

An AVG squadron reappeared over Kukong, and shot down a handful of Nates and Sonias that were bombing the airfield. Those losses are getting slightly annoying, and will look bad on my reports to General Headquarters; but, more importantly, they show a serious problem with my air strategy in China.

What were those Sonias and Nates supposed to achieve, bombing Kukong? I realize I am falling to bad habits: “got planes, will bomb”.

In China, I see only two worthy goals for the air force: one is reconnaissance, the other wasting Allied supplies, (either by disabling troops in the open, or damaging production), bombing Kukong achieves neither. AVG punishment was deserved !


Close to Ichang, another attack in the woods did not quite work…

Ground combat at 84,48 (near Ichang)
Japanese Deliberate attack
Attacking force 16561 troops, 128 guns, 42 vehicles, Assault Value = 607
Defending force 17898 troops, 161 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 506
Japanese assault odds: 1 to 2

Japanese ground losses:
987 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 69 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 54 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 5 disabled

Allied ground losses:
347 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 39 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 13 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled

In defensive terrain, it seems that, no matter troop experience or morale, a clear numerical superiority must be had. I have a division and a regiment coming this way, so I will probably reinforce and try again, but if the defenders prove too difficult to dislodge, I will leave them in their woods. This is yet another instance of "have divs will shock"....

Further north, in the mountain hex north of Kaoping, another unimpressive battle took place (this is the one I discussed a few posts above). Reinforcements are on the way, I need this hex.

South of Shanghai, Chuhsien was taken today. I am not planning any major offensive in the region, but I am moving a couple of divisions and regiments to seize the bases between Nanking, Nanchang, and Canton (that is, Chuhsien, Kanhsien and Pucheng). This will secure my coast bases, open lines of communications between Canton and Shanghai. When this is done (by the end of the month, I believe, unless the enemy tries to make a stand in Kanhsien), I will have to decide whether I want to take Wenchow, move towards Kukong, go west towards Liuchow and Kueilin, or leave expansion in this area for a later campaign. What happens in Shensi, (towards Sian) and in Hubei (towards Nanyang) will determine the tempo in this area.


Elsewhere, Makin was taken, and Ambon fell (at last). Landings happened in Singkawang and Tarakan, while Dutch fighters and bombers trying to attack the invasion forces were mauled by Zeroes. Being in LRCAP range does help amphibious landings… Since there is little opposition on the ground, I will rest a day before attacking. The Balikpapan invasion is landing tomorrow.


Despite AVG mischief, this was a good day in the air. Losses were 15:22 in Japan's favour, most of my planes were lost in air to air combat, whereas two third of enemy planes were ops losses. At sea, I am losing an xAKL per day, either to subs in the sea lanes around Japan, or to Coastal Guns during invasions. I am not sinking Allied ships: none are to be seen. Maybe it is time to take KB for a walk…


Francois

[Capt. Harlock]

December 19th, 1941 No quote, no subtitles, broth and stale bread for dinner, today...

An AVG squadron reappeared over Kukong, and shot down a handful of Nates and Sonias that were bombing the airfield. Those losses are getting slightly annoying, and will look bad on my reports to General Headquarters; but, more importantly, they show a serious problem with my air strategy in China.

What were those Sonias and Nates supposed to achieve, bombing Kukong? I realize I am falling to bad habits: “got planes, will bomb”.
In China, I see only two worthy goals for the air force: one is reconnaissance, the other wasting Allied supplies, (either by disabling troops in the open, or damaging production), bombing Kukong achieves neither. AVG punishment was deserved !

We have had an Imperial lesson,
It may make us an Empire yet!
-- Rudyard Kipling

[fcharton]

Captain Harlock, thanks a lot for that quote, I already can think of many uses for it!

December 20th and 21st, 1941

The time which we have at our disposal every day is elastic; the passions that we feel expand it, those that we inspire contract it; and habit fills up what remains.
(Marcel Proust)

We are now two weeks into the war, and operations are settling into routine. In fact, I am beginning to notice small “cycles”, in the game. On sea, the planning unit is the week. You need about a week to launch and conduct an amphibious assault, a week is about the duration of a small surface raid. On the ground, it is more like three to four days: that’s what you need to move one hex (in half decent terrain) and attack, or what you need to attack twice and rest (typical of sieges). In the air, the cycle is shorter, I tend to think in two day cycles, but in some areas, it is day by day planning. And then, there are longer cycles, supply, convoys, training, ASW…

Thus, there are days where nothing seems to be happening. Convoys are moving, troops are moving, there is a war on the sea and in the air, but it is business as usual. The 20th was one of those days.

Borneo for Christmas

Before the campaign began, my plan for Borneo was “no rush”. Many bases there (Kuching, Singkawang, and Balikpapan, namely) are very close to Allied ports, and can be easily raided if the Japanese player is careless. I expected to be bad at naval operations, and did not want to run that risk against an aggressive opponent. Therefore, the plan was to confront, and hopefully defeat, enemy surface forces, and invade once the area was safe.

This confrontation was to happen around the Celebes, where I expected enemy surface groups to come rescue the merchants fleeing the Philippines, and perhaps raid my invasion forces. So I massed forces there, prepositioning Micro-KB, invading Ternate and Manado, and sending all surface forces covering the Malaya invasions. I was expecting the battle of the Celebes to occur around the 15th of December (maybe a bit earlier).

Invasionwise, this meant that, apart from Miri and Brunei, who could be done early, Kuching, Singkawang, and especially Tarakan and Balikpapan would have to wait.

As often, my initial plan did not survive reality. It soon became clear that merchants were not fleeing through the Celebes, but eastwards, and that my actions in the region (invasion of Ambon) did not attract enemy surfaces forces. Perhaps the enemy was in full retreat, perhaps he was planning a later strike, but in any cases, he was not raiding, the Battle of the Celebes would not take place, and this opened a window of opportunity. This is how operation Borneo for Christmas (aka Oilfield Santa) came to be. Task forces were assembled, dispatched, and escorted by the surface ships that were waiting in the region.

Landings took place, in Jesselton (18th), Singkawang (19th), Tarakan (19th) and Balikpapan (20th). Four ships were lost in the process, two xAKL to Coastal Guns, in Balikpapan, and two (a destroyer and a transport) to submarines in the straits. Significant damage was caused by the coastal guns in Tarakan and Balikpapan.

In the North, the enemy sent bombers and fighters (Hudsons and Blenheims) from Singapore. They were butchered by Zeroes from Kuching, on long range CAP, and the invasion of Singkawang was pretty much unopposed. I waited for a day after the landings, and attacked on the 21st, the base fell at once. Jesselton fell on the 20th. In the East, Tarakan and Balikpapan fell first try on the 21st. Mop up operations will now begin, towards Samarinda, Pontianak, and Sambas. Invasions for Kendari and Macassar are now sailing, if everything goes fine, they should be ashore in three or four days.

This creates an interesting situation, with several questions in the balance:

- Should the expansion go on, or should I regroup and mop up neighboring bases before?
- What’s next? Timor, probably, but South Java, or Northern Australia?
- Now that I have oil and fuel, where to ship it?

China, battalion sized corps, and the AVG

On the ground, the wooden hex next to Ichang was reinforced. Initial bombardment shows enemy strength did not change. Raw AV ratio is now 2:1. I will try a deliberate attack tomorrow, see what happens. If the enemy is defeated, this opens the road to Nanyang.

In the plains, the enemy is apparently trying to position his units over the railway lines. I am not sure what he wants to achieve. It will not cut railway communications (the network is too dense), and it will not cut my supplies (most of my troops are supplied locally, in fact). I am chasing those small corps. On the 20th, one division ended in the same hex as one. Bombardment showed it was an S corps (around 50 AV). The deliberate attack the next day achieved odds of 213:1 (can you believe that?)

Ground combat at 87,45 (near Chengchow)
Japanese Deliberate attack
Attacking force 11341 troops, 94 guns, 32 vehicles, Assault Value = 410
Defending force 1535 troops, 0 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 53
Japanese assault odds: 213 to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: leaders(+), leaders(-), morale(-), experience(-), supply(-)
Attacker: leaders(+), fatigue(-)

Allied ground losses:
1372 casualties reported
Squads: 26 destroyed, 14 disabled
Non Combat: 22 destroyed, 39 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 0 disabled
Units retreated 1

Assaulting units:
35th Division
Defending units:
7th New Chinese Corps

One thing I found interesting is the (supply -) mention. This unit was not pocketed, it was next to Chengchow, which has an open supply line to Sian. Could this mean supply situation in the North is degrading?


In the air, Changsha was bombed on the 20th and 21st, apparently, hits were scored on the industry. I am trying to change targets every day, and bomb in large groups, to avoid the AVG mistakes of the previous days. Fat hope! My bombers were slaughtered over Kweilin. Interestingly, they were supposed to be escorted by Zeroes, but the Zeroes did not coordinate, and arrived squadron by squadron.

I had done all I thought was needed: same altitude, same target, same base of origin… It did not work, and Zeroes flying at 10k ft suffered against the H81-A3 at maximum altitude (should be 32k, now that is high!). As fighter vs fighter, Zeroes, despite being disadvantaged by altitude, did not do bad, a number of AVG planes were damaged and showed up as ops losses, but the bombers got trashed, again... This is getting a bit tiring.

Never change a losing team! I am continuing tomorrow. Targets are Sian and Kunming.


ASW

ASW efforts are beginning to bear fruit. I try to escort all my convoys (with PB, SC or DD), but also, I have been setting up ad-hoc ASW patrols, every time I detected what seemed to be a submarine war patrol. There are made of 4 or 5 DD or SC, are sent to patrol over a small zone where enemy subs have been found, and have their reaction set to maximum.

They seem to reduce considerably the number of attacks. At the beginning of the turn, they react to subs in the area, and follow them. Apparently, the sub captain is busy evading them, and does not attack. Around Japan, I am getting about four ASW attacks a day, on the 20th, two of them scored.

[fcharton]

December 22nd, 1941

Jerry Potts

Today, two Canadian Armored Merchants Cruisers (Prince Robert and Prince Henry) came raiding my Sakhalin convoys. I understand the enemy would try such raids on the Kuriles or Sakhalin, but this strikes me as a very early, and bold, move. As the first AMC (that was Robert) set up for battle, I had a thought for those Canadian sailors, who had crossed the North Pacific in December, to sink a couple of xAKL, brave guys!

Unfortunately, Prince Robert was spotted by one of my ad-hoc ASW task forces. I was composed of four destroyers (Minekaze, Asagao, Fuyo and Karukaya), tough luck for the AMC. 14 shell hits later, Prince Robert was on fire, and a long way from home.

At this point, the four destroyers were heading back to their ASW patrol when they met Prince Henry. Being low on ammunition, the DD tried to disengage, but the AMC captain (a very aggressive man, I’m afraid) chased them, forced the battle, and was sunk. One of the destroyers (Karakaya) was hit. She is 23/19/2/0 damage, she will probably make it to Yokohama.

Thus ended the first day of the raid on Sakhalin. Since there might be others AMC around, I am dispatching a surface force (a BB and a CL, that were collecting dust in Yokohama) towards the Kuriles, to intercept other possible raiders (and finish off Bob…).

The forest of Ichang

The disputed forest hex next to Ichang was attacked today. Two previous assaults had failed to dislodge three Chinese corps (the second one being relatively costly for the IJA). The hex was reinforced yesterday, so I am trying again, with now a 2:1 advantage in raw AV.

Ground combat at 84,48 (near Ichang)
Japanese Deliberate attack
Attacking force 31048 troops, 258 guns, 42 vehicles, Assault Value = 1071
Defending force 17666 troops, 161 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 484

Japanese ground losses:
1066 casualties reported
Squads: 3 destroyed, 68 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 43 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 1 disabled

Allied ground losses:
3519 casualties reported
Squads: 159 destroyed, 6 disabled
Non Combat: 286 destroyed, 2 disabled
Engineers: 8 destroyed, 2 disabled
Guns lost 10 (10 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Units retreated 3

The enemy retreated north, in open terrain, towards Nanyang. I have troops in this region, they better run fast…

159 enemy squads were destroyed, if you consider a M-sized Chinese corps has about 150 combat squads, and there were three of them, it means they lost one third of their strength. My temporary conclusion about fighting in forests is that your raw AV ratio must achieve at least the defensive bonus of the hex.

I am testing this theory tomorrow: reinforcements arrived in that other disputed hex (north of Tsiaotso). I now have 3:1 AV, in a mountain hex…

Elsewhere,
In China, strategic bombing over Sian and Kunming went unopposed. A few hits were scored.
In Luzon, Batangas, fell. Next stop is Manila, which seems lightly defended, a good thing since I'm lightly invading.
Around Hawaii, a Japanese submarine sank DD Ward.
Oh, and I landed in Rabaul. My troops sailed from Japan, and their disruption is terrible. I will probably need a few days…


Francois

[fcharton]

December 23rd, 1941

One liver, two kidneys, three good reasons to use your bayonet
(Pierre Desproges)

Under the sea, life is good. Off Port Moresby, xAKL Pulganbar was sunk by SS RO-62. Japan conducted 5 ASW attacks, for only one enemy sub attack. No hits were scored, but the number of contacts with enemy subs increases, and this seems to be keeping them honest.

In the DEI, little happened, a sweep over Palembang brought nothing. B17D bombed Tarakan, and were met by Zeroes. There still are a few B17 operating from the Philippines, I am not sure where they are based, but I will send my bombers to a couple of airfields I neglected so far, just in case. In Malaya, troops are about 60 miles from Kuala Lumpur, two or three days, I believe. Planes are being rebased to Alor Star and Kota Bharu, and will commence bombing Singapore airfield and port. In Burma, everybody is now one hex from Moulmein. In Rabaul, my infantry has recovered from the landings, they will attack tomorrow.

As usual this week, China is the most active theater. Hong Kong port is now clear of mines. Several task forces from the DEI will arrive soon for repairs.

In the air, the AVG showed up in the cities I had bombed the day before. Most of my planes were on other duties, so nothing happened, except over Kunming, where I must have forgotten to “demission” one squadron… Intel shows 26 fighters in Changsha (that’s one AVG squadron), 24 in Sian, and 14 in Kunming. This low 14 was surprising. I suspect transferring every day causes damaged planes to lag behind, and sometimes to be lost, for want of aviation support. Ironically, this hide and seek game might spell trouble for the AVG.

I have been thinking about the air war in China, and am getting increasingly convinced it is not worth the bother. Sure, I can bomb the industry, or the troops, and I will shoot the AVG down, eventually, but my Zeroes and Sallies are better used in the DEI, Malaya, Burma. I need to maintain a minimal force, though, to continue playing hide and seek, and keep the AVG busy (I’d rather have them chasing their tail in China than causing mischief in Burma).

Should China become Japan’s air training ground?


On the ground, two battles happened today. North of Kaoping, in the mountains, two divisions (37th and 41st) reinforced by two infantry brigades routed four Chinese corps (and two headquarters). I had 3:1 raw AV odds, previously 2:1 odds achieved nothing. This seems to confirm my theory, that, in defensive terrain, you need odds superior to the terrain multiplier. Here is the report.

Ground combat at 88,41 (near Kaoping)
Japanese Deliberate attack
Attacking force 33341 troops, 319 guns, 101 vehicles, Assault Value = 1124
Defending force 14193 troops, 147 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 347

Japanese ground losses:
479 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 33 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 35 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 4 disabled

Allied ground losses:
4237 casualties reported
Squads: 290 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 245 destroyed, 10 disabled
Engineers: 7 destroyed, 5 disabled
Guns lost 13 (13 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Units retreated 6

Once more, considering one Chinese corps has about 150 fighting squads, and there were four of them, this battle probably halved their combat strength, and replacing the losses will cost supplies.


North, a Chinese corps was blocking the road from Paotow to Lanchow. Two tanks regiments moved forwards, and attacked in a desert (ie open) hex. It is the Yellow River, but it felt like the Don…

Ground combat at 90,32 (near Paotow)
Attacking force 1920 troops, 0 guns, 288 vehicles, Assault Value = 162
Defending force 4545 troops, 43 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 171

Japanese ground losses:
Vehicles lost 12 (1 destroyed, 11 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
2173 casualties reported
Squads: 79 destroyed, 52 disabled
Non Combat: 90 destroyed, 46 disabled
Engineers: 2 destroyed, 3 disabled
Guns lost 5 (5 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Units retreated 1

The tanks regiments will now pursue, they are moving faster than the Chinese infantry. Interestingly, the Chinese corps suffered from a supply minus.

Here is a map of the situation in Northern China. White arrows are Japanese directions of advance, red arrows are enemy paths of retreat. In the North, two columns from Paotow, following the major road to Hami, and the secondary road to Lanchow, are progressing smoothly, chasing two Chinese corps. Troops from Paotow are now following, to protect lines of communication (the secondary road, which could be cut by raiders from Yenan). Towards Sian, we are moving through the mountain passes that defend Shensi.

In the south, the situation is becoming interesting. Following the defeat in Ichang, yesterday, I have troops moving north, towards Nanyang. In the meantime, it seems that the enemy is evacuating Chengchow. There are now 70 000 men in Nanyang, and 20 000 from Chengchow moving in that direction.

I am moving towards Chengchow. This will open the rail line to Sinyang and Hankow, and deprive the KMT of a few factories. I am hoping this encourages the enemy to evacuate Loyang. Further south, my troops around Ichang are now moving north, towards Nanyang.

This means my plans in the South have to adapt. Originally, I wanted to rush to Nanyang, leaving enemy troops in Loyang and Chengchow to be pocketed for a later siege, and moving on to Ankang and Sian. But the battle in Ichang and the evacuation of Chengchow are changing the situation, and my southern column, although it will go for Ankang and Sian eventually, will be delayed by probably two weeks, more if the enemy decides to hold Nanyang.

Updated plans are as follows :

North column : push towards Lanchow and Hami, while guarding the northern loop of the Yellow River against interception from Yenan. Try to attack enemy infantry, everything done now will not be faced later. Yinchuan/Ninghsia and the cross roads to Jiuquan are first phase objective, Lanchow and Hami are end phase goals.

Central column: go for the plain of the Wei (before Sian), and cut the roads to Yenan and the plains. Since supply seems to be bad in the region, I might consider a drive north towards Yenan (this would prevent future raids on the north column, and therefore free troops there…)

South column will split. Troops from Hankow/Ichang will move around Nanyang, to cut it off, if possible. Troops from Sinyang and Kaifeng will move on Chengchow (if the evacuation is confirmed…) and perhaps Loyang, or cut Loyang off. Normal operation towards Nanyang and then Sian will resume by the first week of January.

[fcharton]

December 24th, 1941

War is a series of catastrophes that results in a victory.
(Georges Clémenceau)

Nothing new in China, for a change… Troops are moving, fleeing, pursuing, my planes bombed some troops in open terrain, the AVG is capping bases just in case...

Borneo, schmorneo

Samarinda was taken today. The defenders are now in the marshes, let them wad.

A big (9) bunch of B17D bombed Tarakan (alt. 10k feet). My Zeroes confronted them, and damaged three, yet the enemy managed to score 5 oil hits, which apparently translated into 28 (twenty eight!!! XXVIII !!!!) damaged oilfields. Uh?

I will survive, but this seems a bit off, on the high side of damage, if you ask me. I need to get to the base where those darn B17 originate (Mindanao, silly me!), and vitrify its runway. And I will get more CAP over Tarakan tomorrow.

A surface task force bombarded Macassar, a patrol boat was sunk. I shall land in Kendari tomorrow, and in Macassar the day after. Still no sign of enemy activity, I am fine with this.


Bullying Biggles

Today was a good day in the air. Raids over Singapore airfields destroyed 13 enemy planes, for 3 friendly bombers, and damaged installations and supply. No fighter was seen in the air, I expect them tomorrow (not sure whether I should sweep or escort). This is my second bombing run on Singapore. During the first one, my Nells and Betties had been roughed by the flak. This time, I am a little higher (10 000 feet, and using bombs), flak seems less dangerous, yet we still do damage. I will try tomorrow at 12-15k feet, see what happens.

Raids over Rangoon further damaged the port.

A sweep over Samarinda eliminated B-339 there. The results are a little strange, again. The combat report says two B 339 scrambled, and one was destroyed, but 8 of them are reported destroyed (3 to Air to Air, 5 to ops).

139WH-3 tried to bomb Balikpapan (they are going for the oil, as usual). Yesterday, there were no fighters, so they had a free shot (no hits though). Today, the Zeroes were around, and eleven Dutch bombers did not return home. Again, the results are a bit strange : 5 139WH-3 were supposed to participate in this raid (which is the only one they conducted), two are reported shot, one damaged, yet eleven show up as losses :five air to air, and six operations.

Fog of War is certainly at work here, but still. Could some of the losses correspond to losses of the previous days which get tallied today? Or planes destroyed during the capture of Samarinda (but then why would they be counted as air to air)? I am not sure I understand what is happening.

Anyway, the day ends with a 3:34 air loss ratio, in favour of Japan. This compensates for yesterday, were the ratio was 20:0 for the allies. Since the beginning of the war, 400 Japanese planes have been shot down, for 450 Allied. This seems slightly in Japan’s favor, but Allied losses are probably exaggerated. In reality, I am probably on par with my the Allies. I believe my opponent has exactly the same conclusion...

Fighters make up a large fraction of Allied losses (250 out of 450, about 55%). Level bombers represent 25% of the losses, the rest being mostly Patrol (about 40).

Over a quarter of Japanese losses occurred over Pearl Harbor. Fighters account for about a third of the total (135, half of which are Zeroes), but largest losses are for level bombers (150), and I suspect a large part of those 150 happened over China. Since most fighters in the DEI are now out of play, and if I use my bombers a little better in China, the air loss ratio should improve.


In other news, Rabaul fell today, first try. It had been evacuated, probably by air, and only a small amount of troops were present. Survivors are now in the jungle, let them eat snakes.

[fcharton]

Christmas special, 1941
(that would be December 25th, for you gaijins who don’t understand our Japanese holidays)

Jungle hell, jungle hell
Jungle all the way
Oh what fun it is to ride
In an xAKL
(Traditional)

Santa Oscar

Yesterday, as the bombing of Singapore commenced, my fighters did not escort the Nells and Betties, not sure why. This caused no harm, enemy fighters had been stood down, but as I watched the replay, I thought my opponent might be tempted to have some CAP the next day. So I sent the Oscars, and, lo and behold, the Buffaloes showed up.

I lost 9 Oscars to 11 (Tracker) or 14 (in game air losses) Buffaloes, and 2 Blenheims. I have seen better, but it is fine. My opponent is apparently systematically capping at the highest possible altitude, ie the planes ceiling, or about 30 000 feet. I tend to send my escort at the same altitude as my bombers, ie 10 – 15k feet). Apparently, being higher is not as deadly as some make it, but it certainly gives the enemy an edge that could be denied. I need to read about this (pointers to informative threads, not rants, are welcome).

My fighters did their job, though, and the bombers arrived unscathed (only one Nell was lost in air to air). Flying a little higher than yesterday (closer to 15k feet) considerably reduced damage from enemy flak. Three enemy bombers were destroyed on the ground, and the runway and airbase got hit.

Tracker reports 80 Buffaloes destroyed, the game engine says 97. In any case, enemy air defenses in the region are getting thin. Sweeps over Sumatra (Medan, Palembang) find nothing. This brings a question. Once I have air superiority, what should I do with the bombers? Ground attacks, which would reduce enemy units, airfield/port attacks, which would use up resources, and engineer time, something else? I am trying ground attacks tomorrow, to see what they achieve. But any advice is welcome.

Overall, the conquest of Malaya (operation Durian) is progressing nicely. My spearheads are less than 40 miles from Kuala Lumpur, and two other columns are closing on Kuantan and Temuloh. Progression is slightly slower than expected. Kuala Lumpur will probably fall on the 28th, Malacca a week after (4th of January), and Johore Bahru around the 8th. Then units will be brought by rail, and move on to Singapore. The siege of Singapore could begin around the 15th, and last for about a week.

Troopwise, I have ten infantry regiments in the peninsula. Five (21st, 41st,42nd, 56th and 114th) are currently marching South. Four more are waiting in Singora and in Alor Star, and one more is in Victoria. I have one more guard regiment and a full division in Bangkok. This amounts to about five divisions.

I have three more division in reserve: one in Haiphong, one in Hong Kong, and one in Shanghai. I plan to commit the Haiphong division (44th I think), and besiege Singapore (operation Merlion) with six divisions.

After its fall, those troops would be sent to Luzon, to help with the conquest of Clark Field and Bataan, save one division that would reinforce Burma (there, I want two divisions in February, and three in March). A few regiments would be kept to guard the area and push towards Sumatra, but, since Singapore was not evacuated so far, and since reinforcing Sumatra will become difficult, now that I hold Singkawang, I don’t think the invasion of Sumatra needs a lot of troops.

In fact, over the three first months of the war, I expect two large battles to take place in the region, one in Singapore, and one in Clark Field.


Christmas in the Philippines

Two regiments from the Atimonian landing force arrived in Manila, and found the city empty. It will fall tomorrow. The garrison will be a little low, and exposed to counterattack from Clark Field. A brigade from Aparri is arriving soon (3 days, I believe), and a regiment is shipping from the Pescadores.

After, I intend to dispatch the 21st infantry division from Shanghai. With her, I would have over 1100 AV in Manila, enough to discourage any attempt, while waiting for reinforcements when Singapore falls. The 38th division, in Hong Kong, will constitute my reserve.

An engineer battalion landed on Batan Island, it will fall tomorrow. On Mindanao, my troops are moving along the coast. Enemy forces seem to be going for Malaybalay. I intend to leave them there. I might need one additional regiment to block them. In the air, a large raid damaged the airfield in Cagayan. B17D raided Tarakan, again, four were shot down by the CAP.

In other news, we landed in Kendari. Disruption is high, so the troops will rest before attacking. The invasion of Macassar in three hexes away.

Even further, a tank regiment arrived in Moulmein today. The invasion of Burma is beginning!


Rudolph, the red nosed panda

Lots of news from China, from south to north…

One of the two regiments sent from Lang Son to Pakhoi met the 64th Chinese corps, that used to defend Pakhoi, and is now moving northwest, towards Nanning. Bombardment will commence tomorrow, a second regiment is joining in two days.

A regiment from Canton and three battalions from Swatow reached Kanhsien. The city is empty and will fall tomorrow. Further East, a brigade should arrive tomorrow in Pucheng. This means all Fujian (the hinterland between the sea and a line from Canton to Nanchang) is now under control, and the road from Hong Kong to Shanghai is now open. All enemy troops in the region seem to have fled to Wenchow. The plan is to bomb this city, from sea and air.

In Henan, Chengchow fell today, to my surprise. One brigade crossing the river shocked attacked and took the place, much less defended than I thought.

Ground combat at Chengchow (88,44)
Japanese Shock attack
Attacking force 5580 troops, 38 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 197
Defending force 4503 troops, 14 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 89

Japanese ground losses:
221 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 15 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 7 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Allied ground losses:
1614 casualties reported
Squads: 37 destroyed, 2 disabled
Non Combat: 96 destroyed, 10 disabled
Engineers: 13 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 8 (8 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Units retreated 4

Assaulting units:
3rd Ind.Mixed Brigade

Defending units:
15th Chinese Corps
7th New Chinese Corps
1st War Area
10th Chinese Base Force

This is good news. The capture of Chengchow reduces the industry and resource the Allies control in China (60 resources, 60 light industry), opens the railway line from Manchuria to Sinyang and Hankow, and further isolates the units trapped in the plains. It seems that a general retreat towards Nanyang and Sian is in order. Will Loyang be evacuated as well? One can hope…

Finally, along the northern loop of the Yellow River, two tank regiments attacked the 81st Chinese Corps for the second time. Infantry against armor, in open terrain, is a lost cause. 150 combat squads were destroyed. Something has retreated towards Ningsia, but it must be a very small force. The tank regiments will rest for a day, and let the supply catch up, then pursuit will continue, towards Ningsia, and then Lanchow. Still north, and infantry column is progressing towards Hami, unopposed.


So far, China is the most interesting theater in this war. My original plans were to leave the south and centre, clear roadblocks in the plains, leave Chegchow and Loyang if the enemy wanted them, and concentrated on my three pronged move towards Sian and Lanchow. However, enemy retreat to Wenchow made possible the capture of Fujian, and retreat towards Nanyang and Sian allow for earlier control of the plains.

In the north, Chinese troops seem to be in full retreat. Where will is stop? I believe Loyang is being evacuated now, and if Loyang is evacuated, I don’t see the point of holding Nanyang. Sian will be defended, and Ankang as well (since it commands access to the Sichuan basin). I am considering a move on Yenan, and will send a couple divisions from Manchuria for this (I am way over the garrison limit).

Here is a map of the current frontlines in China. The red line is the front, the blue blobs are the two pockets : Pakhoi and Wenchow.

[Captain Cruft]

If I have nothing else to do with bombers I put them on Naval Search 30% with Training 20. In general, you can never have enough planes out looking for ships and subs, so I have a long-term plan to get the entire IJA and IJN bomber force trained up to do this. Come 1943 or even sooner you aren't going to be bombing anything anyway, or at least nothing that's on land.

[fcharton]

December 26th, 1941

Civilization without science would be just as absurd as a fish without a bicycle.
(Pierre Desproges)

Operations today were, by and large, the logical conclusion of yesterday’s advances.

In the Celebes, landings at Macassar went unopposed. The troops will rest for a few days before attacking. In Kendari, a Dutch submarine, stalking the unloading cargoes, was sunk by the escort. This is my fifth sub kill (three Dutch, two US). Around Japan, I am getting a handful of ASW attacks every turn, few of them manage to hit (I get about one hit per day), but they keep enemy subs honest. My convoys from Sakhalin, Hokkaido and Korea hardly get targeted anymore.

Over Mindanao, Cagayan was bombed again. The runway should be in a pretty bad shape, for no B-17 flew, and one was destroyed on the ground.

In Luzon, Manila was occupied. Minesweepers are now moving to clear the port (and Bataan), troops from Appari are joining, and reinforcements from the Pescadores are on their way. The first phase of the Luzon campaign is almost over. The next month will be spent fortifying, developing the bases and airfields, and occupying small bases to the south (Legaspi) and on the northern coast (Lingayen and San Fernando). But very little shall happen until the end of January. At this point, I will have two options : either reinforce the island and have an early battle of Clark Field, to conquer Luzon in February, or go on with the attrition strategy, and wait until April or May, when supplies fall to zero, for the coup de grâce on the garrison. At present, I am leaning towards the latter. If the enemy keeps with his current defensive stance, I should better use my forces to expand the perimeter as fast as possible, and mop up pockets once the amphibious bonus phase ends (that’s at the end of March, right?)

Over Singapore, the airfields were raided again. There were no fighters on CAP. One Blenheim, one Vildebeest and two Buffaloes were destroyed on the ground. The retreating column from Kota was once more defeated north of Temuloh. My main column should arrive tomorrow in Kuala Lumpur.

In Burma, Moulmein fell to the tank regiment I use as spearhead. Five enemy units are in the jungle hex on the other side of the river. They are probably the evacuees from Moulmein and Tavoy, but since my infantry is one hex behind, I will let it catch up before moving forward. All my forces should be in Moulmein the day after tomorrow, and take that jungle hex on the 31st of December. This mean I should be in Rangoon between the 5th and the 7th of January. The port of Rangoon is bombed daily, nothing flows in. My impression is that the city has been abandoned. This would be great. The first objective of my drive on Burma was to cut the Burma Road. The sooner I hold Rangoon, the better.

After Rangoon, I should rush north, and try to capture Magwe, to block oil and fuel production from Burma. I need more recon in the region, to decide whether I split my forces, let a smaller force take Rangoon and send the rest North, from Pegu.

In South China, Kanhsien fell. The bombing of Wenchow began.
In Central China, Loyang was bombed. Apparently, the city has about 400 AV, but they seem to be evacuating. I will wait one or two days, and move in. The airfield in Changsha apparently moved up one level today (to level four). This is good, any supply use in China is good…

VP-wise, this turn was the best so far. The fall of Manila caused a large drop in Allied VP. The VP ratio is now below 2:1 in the Allies favor. I have been looking at victory points, and noticed that an important aspect, for the Japanese player, is to develop airfields and ports in conquered bases. This is especially true in China, where I am beginning to send engineer battalions to forward bases.



Francois

[Captain Cruft]

Do you hold Bataan? If not then any minesweepers sent through the hex will get obliterated by the fortress there.

[fcharton]

Oh? Good to know ! Thanks a lot!

Does this mean there is no way I can effectively use Manila as a port before Bataan falls?

[Captain Cruft]

Exactly.