Tokyo Rose was a Hussy! Chez (J) vs. Canoe (A)

[Cribtop]

Accidentally hit quote instead of reply? It's a handy feature.

[jeffk3510]

I think (sorry if it has been addressed) moving the AA units to Palembang is a good idea. It sounds like it is becoming a huge fortress and the invasion bonus is almost up, so you could really put a thorn in his side for a while with it if you ask me. Sounds like he is going to pay dearly to take it. Especially if he lands there.

Any idea where the KB is at?

[paullus99]

I believe our combined assumption has been that the KB is moving back towards the DEI after its participation in the Fiji Operation. Given that he's been backed into a corner with the loss of the mini-KB, he is in the position of having to use his main carrier force for air cover in subsequent operations - this will both help and hurt him, because once the KB is located & tied down (and the DEI can be a dangerous place for carriers - as he already has seen), Canoerebel can proceed with his other operations outside of the DEI.

The sinking of those light carriers could be the war-winner, in my opinion.

[Fishbed]

Problem is that the Kuriles ops better be quickly led and done. Those US carriers will be a looooong way from home (is Dutch harbor the closest hub of the kind?). I fear that he may not even need carriers for taking the place back. A single division may take the place, but hardly keep it long so close from Japan.

Kuriles can be tricky, and retaken without carrier force I think. An aggressive air campaign from Hokkaido and other Kurile islands can bomb the place into submission, and don't even mention some regular battlewagon runs with the old BBs. That will be a distraction, but I fear the place will last as long as it takes for a prudent Japanese player to prepare his troops. Ressuply seems next to impossible on the long run for me, especially if you give up on providing fleet CV cover against a come back from the KB. Still, it may make a dent on his deployment and his forces more than it does to yours.

[ny59giants]

The results of a bombardment TF is mixed. They can focus on the troops or the AF/Port. It seems to be very random. [&:] I have seen the use of an old BB or two in your transports do well against CD guns as they will focus on them and they can use their thick skin to absorb the hits. Don't forget to add in some of those DMS to both the BB TF and Amphib TF to clear any mines you may find up there. My Japanese opponent in one game (Seille) posted in Tech Support about the effectiveness of BB TF and MichaelM responded that there were no changes.

Have you two decided to use any of the Beta Patches for your game?? I'm using them in all my games and find they are very stable at this point I got John 3rd to do so for his games. You have the added feature of being able to use PP to buy back destroyed LCUs and it may make losing some units at Singapore more favorable for you.

[Canoerebel]

Chez can take control of the Kuriles area if he commits his carriers or combat ships. Either move will seriously help the Allies in Sumatra, so that would be welcome.

If he doesn't commit his ships until after he attends to the DEI (or until he gets his army landed on Sumatra), the Allies will have months to prepare the Kuriles:

1. Japan doesn't have any airbases above level one closer than Hokkaido (about 15 hexes from Onnekton). Toyohara, Shikuka, and Paramushiro are level one airfields.

2. The Allies will begin with three BBs, which should outgun anything Japan could commit for quite some time.

3. The Allies will begin the campaign with only a few units for each target, but will bring in lots of engineers and CD units over the following weeks.

4. Allied engineers should be able to build the airfields rapidly, thus allowing the storage of alot of supplies.

5. By the time Chez is ready to attend to the Kuriles, the Allies should be ready to proceed with other amphibious operations elsewhere.

6 If Chez waits long enough, winter conditions will set in buying the Allies four months of absolute security on the islands. By spring 1943, the Allies could either fight for the Kuriles or use them as a good diversion.

7. Japanese invasions are tricky after the expiration of the invasion bonus, so a counterinavasion should exact a decent toll.

The Allies don't have to hold the Kuriles for the move to be effective. This is mainly about creating a second crisis for Japan. If things go well - if I don't lose too many merchants - it will be followed by a third crisis long before Japan could retake the Kuriles. Creating multiple hotspots should wrest the initiative from Japan and will protect most of the vulnerable areas from Japanese invasion (if Chez is focused on the Kuriles, he doesn't go after a lightly defended New Zealand, etc.).

[Canoerebel]

3/11/42 and 3/12/42

Eastern DEI: Quiet - no sign of the KB here or anywhere else. This is the area in which I expect the next big IJ thrust forward.

Western DEI: Lots of Allied shipping moving in and out, shuttling supplies, fuel, and troops between various bases. Singapore's AV is back up to 800 (from a low of 674 after the IJ shock attack on the 6th.

India: The American carriers arrive at Colombo and fill out aircraft squadrons. Lexington, Saratoga, and a variety of combat ships are set to upgrade. CV Formidable just arrive at Capetown and will proceed to Colombo.

China: Allied bombardment at Changsha shows 1400 AV (13th and 116th Divisions and three brigades). I also got SigInt that 39th Division is prepping for this base. This suggest Steve might move his big stack to Changsha from the hex to the south, trying to gain better than 3x advantage so that Chinese reinforcements have to shock attack. I'm moving 200 AV from Siangtan to Changsha to raise my AV to about 2,600. The Allies are pretty much ready now if Japan attacks.

Luzon: The enemy still hasn't arrived at Bataan. I'm glad this base is still holding out, but I'd like to see if Steve brings his five divisions or if he's already moved some of them out.

NoPac: The Paramushiro ships are loaded and at sea. Empty transports are bound for Dutch Island and Kodiak to load the Onnekotan-bound troops. I have additional troops at Pearl (mainly engineers and CDs) that will begin loading in a day or two, though they aren't absolutely necessary to participate in D-Day. The Allies will be in a position to invade in about two weeks, assuming confirmation is received that the KB is far away.

CenPac: The Japanese take vacant Baker Island on the 11th.

Hail Mary Plans: I am pretty confident that Steve's next move will be to attend to the DEI in a methodical manner. If, however, he tries a big leap somewhere vital (India, Hawaii, Oz), I think the Allies are ready and have good plans in place. The plans for each wouldn't be to counter such a move directly, but to ramp up operations in the DEI and/or NoPac in visible and aggressive ways.

[Fishbed]

You're gonna have the Lex and the Sara upgrade right in the middle of the Paramushiro operation... They're supposed to be a backup force?

Isn't this upgrade the 8' turret to 5' turrent upgrade? Could take some time to get done...

[Canoerebel]

They're at Colombo, half a world away from the Kuriles. The Allied carriers won't be needed because the KB will be far away and there aren't any airfields bigger than level one within a range of 15 hexes.

[Fishbed]

How will you bring airgroups to the place actually? Seems pretty remote to me for most 42' planes. Are there transports dedicated to transporting air groups in your first or second wave already? [:)]
Seabees will build the thing up in no time, like a new level every 3 or 4 turns, so these places could get serviceable pretty early I guess.

[Canoerebel]

I won't need aircraft for a long time (except for patrols).

[paullus99]

What about his recon assets up there - didn't he grab one of the Aluetians towards the beginning of the war? Are you going to route around any potential entanglements?

[Canoerebel]

I think Steve is neglecting NoPac right now if I'm reading the signs correctly. He has Amchitka Island, and he's basing patrol aircraft there, but there's no sign of any building going on anywhere else. All of his Kuriles and Sikhalin Island bases are still at the same levels they were when the war began, and SigInt indicates that there are only 2k troops at Paramushiro.

Since there are no airfields greater than level one, and since the KB will be far away (else I won't proceed), and since the Alllies will have at least temporary control of the seas (I'll have five BBs and most or all of the IJN will be in the DEI), I am very comfortable proceeding with a quicky invasion against light opposition. I can certainly avoid the patrol aircraft operating out of Amchitka. Whatever is operating out of Paramushiro won't come into play until just a day or two before D-Day.

I have a good feel for everything involved in the equation except the potency of the Paramushiro CD guns. I don't think they can defeat the invasion, but I am concerned lest they sink my precious APs. But that's a risk I'm going to take.

[paullus99]

Very sound plan - I'd be surprised if you don't see the KB in the next few days, especially if it looks like he's going to start moving again. I'm surprised he hasn't attacked at Singapore again, he's going to get a rude awakening when he hits those level 4 forts - and if he's slowing down to try to pull together overwhelming force, well, all the better for you.

Time is your friend & his enemy.

[Nemo121]

Why Paramushiro Jima?

Surely you could land at bases around Paramushiro at less cost, taking more bases and use the US engineer advantage to build them up to the level you require in a timely fashion?

Last time I took on dedicated pre-war CD guns with an amphibious TF containing BBs I lost 2 BBs to the damage ( fires and system damage causing sinking several days later ). Unless the algorithms have changed I would only take on dedicated, emplaced CD guns if absolutely necessary.

[Canoerebel]

I have no questions about the advantages of taking Paramushiro, just the cost.
 
Advantages:  Allies get secure set of bases with no enemy base in the rear; better ability to configure a full defense of the Kuriles if the enemy tarries in attacking; better shock value in getting Steve's full attention.  There's something about taking Paramushiro that will get a Japanese player's attention, and since an important aspect of this operation is give Steve a contemporaneous crisis in NoPac, I'd like to make the crisis as big as I can.
 
Cost: The only question here is the impact of the CD guns.  In my previous invasion of Paramushiro two games ago, my transports got chewed alive by those guns.  However, I didn't properly configure the TFs with cruisers and/or battleships.  I'll have the ability to do so this time, so if that will reduce the cost to an acceptable level then I'll proceed.  However, I don't think anyone is sure yet how potent Para's guns are given all the patches since I last tried this.  The general feeling seems to be that capital ships embedded in the transport TFs will work, but I haven't seen any certainty, just hunches.  I suppose I need to run some tests.  If those CD guns tear into capital ships and transports, I'll shift my targets to Onnekotan and an island or two to the south - but first I'd re-evaluate the operation to see if it's worth doing with an enemy base in my rear.

[Canoerebel]

3/13/42

A very good day for the Allies, leading to new thoughts and possibilities.

Singapore: Japan sent massed fighters and bombers against Allied shipping and a stout CAP at Singapore. The fighting was long and hard, with the Allies downing 105 aircraft and losing just 27. The Hurricanes were the stars of the show, while the Oscars seemed to perform better than the Zeros. The RAF has a bunch of new aces and quite a few pilots with experience/skill numbers in the high 70s or low 80s. The Japanese did manage to sink two xAK a few hexes south of the port. Allied AV here is up to 818 (after going down to 670 following the last Japanese shock attack), forts 4.07, supplies nearly 50k.

Impact: Steve had already shown a marked reluctance to take on the Allied fighters at Singapore and this amplify his negative feelings. I doubt he attacks again until he has what he thinks is overwhelming force. I think the Allies will have air superiority over Singapore for awhile yet. This will also seriously diminish whatever thoughts he might have had about invading forward beyond his LBA umbrella. I was pretty sure he'd go step-by-step in the DEI, but as far as I'm concerned this cements things for quite some time. I think the Allies will have time to bring in additional troops - mainly engineers and CD guns - to Sumatra. I also wanted Steve to reveal his carriers, but there is a chance he'll slow down his advance and move in very small steps under cover of LBA. I might need to employ some combat ships to interdict some of his forward shipping to draw him out.

Reinforcing or Going on the Offensive: Yesterday I re-read the Nemo/One-Eyed AAR from February through the end of March 1942. It had been a long time and learned or re-learned alot. First, I have to tip my CAP to Nemo, who is way ahead of me in terms of knowing exactly what he's dealing with, what he has, and what he can do. Second, it was interesting to see the very quick evolvement of his thinking from defensive to offensive in the DEI. One day he was planning to defend Sumatra, then he shifted to offensive plans to invade Malaya due to his opponent's situation and mind set. My situation is good, but not nearly as good as Nemos (he had already successfully gone on the offensive in the Kuriles and Marshalls and was wreaking havoc in the DEI and Philippines). I think if I had enough political points right now, I'd strongly consider reinforcing Singapore (that's one base where I have an advantage over Nemo at this point in the two games).

Western DEI: The Allies are growing very strong now. A bunch of American aircraft squadrons just arrived in theater to replace a few that had to be withdrawn. The army and fortifications on Sumatra are very strong and getting stronger. And the Allied navy in the region is likewise strong. Japan can still achieve superiority in all three categories, but the force correlation is close enough that the Allies can take Japan on - and even achieve victories if I do my job right. (The Japanese have invaded lightly-garrisoned Singkawang, which they'll take tomorrow. This is a good move by Steve, but very late...too late.)

India: Lexington and Saratoga will be in the yards for 26 days to upgrade. Yorktown and Enterprise are available for duty as soon as their destroyers upgrade (a week). I may send them back to theater then.

China: The IJN stack is in that middle hex across the river from Siangtan. I still don't know which way Steve will move. I think Changsha is most likely. I'd really like him to attack in a big, self-destructive way soon, so that the Chinese can then go on the offensive against a seriouly weakened enemy force.

NoPac: I'm going to run tests on the Paramshiro shore guns later today.

[Cribtop]

Tests against PJ are the way to go. I would also open a Japan game and check the size and number of the guns. 6 inch or less, go for it but expect a few losses. 8 inch or more, or a huge number of 6 inch guns, seek easier prey.

PS I know Japanese guns are in centimeters but you get the idea.

PPS the Singapore debacle shows that you are gaining enough pilot experience that the enemy can't rely on getting air superiority without big numbers, which I'm not sure he has anymore.

PPPS You're winning.

[Canoerebel]

A couple of other noteworthy items as I wrap up the turn and send it to Chez:

1. SigInt reports 52nd Division on a maru bound for Mersing. This unit was previously in Manchuria. I may try for an intercept - three or four combat TFs are staging forward to Oosthaven from the India Ocean. If things look promising upon arrival there, they'll proceed to Mersing.

2. Enemy troops are finally arriving at Bataan. I'm anxious to know if Chez devotes all five Clark Field divisions to the operation or if he siphoned off one or more for immediate deployment elsewhere. (Commitmen of all five against the shambles of an Allied army at Bataan would be a massive overkill and misallocation of forces suggesting he really is uncertain about what to do where.)

3. The Allies are leading in the air war (a first for me in AE ever). To date, the Japanese have lost 1277 aircraft, the Allies 1027. The Allies even have a slight lead in the a-2-a category.

[Canoerebel]

Comparison to Nemo's "Salutations and Solicitations" Game

This game bears some striking similarities and important differences to Nemo's "Salutations and Solicitations" game vs. One-Eyed-Jacks.

Both games are Scenario Two, feature Fortress Palembang efforts, and involve certain struggles by Japan. In March 1942, both games find the Allies strongly entrenched in Sumatra with Japan failing to make progress in the DEI - neither IJ player had landed on Java or taken on the Allied defenses in eastern Sumatra. But that's about where the similarities end.

First, credit where credit is due. Nemo is the originator (or an early contributor) to the Fortress Palembang idea. I'm just following in his footsteps, which is a much different (and easier) proposition.

Also, it was in March 1942 that the wheels came off for One-Eyed-Jacks. Nemo had already embarked on successful offensives in the Kuriles and Marshalls. His opponent reacted by committing most of the IJN to the defense of the Pacific, denuding himself of combat ships in the DEI. Nemo realized this and knew that Japan could never move on Sumatra if the fleet was in the Pacific. So Nemo was already transitioning to the offensive in the DEI by the end of March 1942 - with amphibious operations planned vs. Malaya and the islands south of Mindanao. The game had already spiraled out of control for Japan and things went downhill from there. I am sure that one of Nemo's few regrets was that he didn't get the pleasure of fighting for Eastern Sumatra.

In this game, I haven't embarked on any offensives in the Pacific to draw enemy assets away. Consequently, most of the Imperial Navy is in the DEI. That's a huge difference in the two games. I will be invading the Kuriles (assuming my tests are satisfactory), but my suspicious is that this will not draw the Japanese navy north.

One of the few advantages I have had is that the Allies held Singapore (Nemo abandoned it early to shift the troops to Sumatra; a wise move that worked well for him given his situation at the time). Holding Singapore has given the Allies a buffer and time to build Sumatra and has also resulted in a favorable attrition to the Japanese air forces.

We will see a Siege and Battle of Fortress Palembang in this game, which ought to be very interesting. My defenses aren't quite as stout as were Nemo's, but they are pretty good. Also, the IJ army has had seven divisions attrited thus far in the fighting on Luzon and at Singapore. So the IJ army may need some time to recover. Time is on the side of the Allies.

Playing the game this far into 1942, and then reading through Nemo's AAR yesterday, has increased my appreciation for his handling of the Allies in his game.