Tokyo Rose was a Hussy! Chez (J) vs. Canoe (A)

[paullus99]

If there is a possibility that this game doesn't go the distance - meaning you might overwhelmingly defeat him in 1943, taking a few risks now is a good thing. If you can put some hurt on his fast BB's, do it - even on the off chance you take a couple of hits, it still will put the fear in him.

[Miller]

ORIGINAL: paullus99

If there is a possibility that this game doesn't go the distance - meaning you might overwhelmingly defeat him in 1943, taking a few risks now is a good thing. If you can put some hurt on his fast BB's, do it - even on the off chance you take a couple of hits, it still will put the fear in him.

I doubt this game will reach 43.

[Canoerebel]

Well, it's time for somebody to come along and say, "I think you guys are too sure of yourselves.  There's alot that could happen now.  Maybe the Allies are too complacent.  Etc." 
 
Orders have been issued:  Assuming that the Kongo/Haruna/Ise TF may be bound for Batavia to bombard, the Allies will try to intercept in hopes that strike aircraft - augmented by 36 SBD-3s from American carriers - can hit cripplies effecitvely.  So something like 15 PT boats, the Royal Soveriegn TF, and a cruiser TF following, will sniff around Batavia.
 
Decisions have been made:  The Allies will expend the PP to buy 27th Division.  1500 are needed, 1250 are on hand, so I'll have to wait five days.
 
A correction is needed:  The Chinese are laying siege to Kukong rather than Kienko as I stated earlier.

[John 3rd]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

This is a weird game no doubt.  The fact that Steve is experienced adds to the weirdness.  I look forward to eventually hearing his explanation of what the heck has happened from his perspective.

I think Steve has figured out that I was getting too much intel.  The "prepping for" and "maru bound for" stuff has slowed considerably.  That which I do get is mostly uselss, like "xx unit is at Singapore" or "xx unit is prepping for Changsha."  Those are pretty obvious.

My guess as to Steve's strategy?  I say he'll focus on Sumatra and the Kuriles, nibble a bit on the peripheries at fairly lightly defended bases, work in China, and eventually transition over to the defensive.  I don't believe there will be any big and bold moves on major Allied land masses, though I'll continue sniffing for any indications to the contrary.

Thanks for the detailed answer.

I have really wanted to read his AAR but have stayed away from it. As a JFB I have so many questions for your opponent as to the why's and how's of the campaign.

My .02 is that the campaign won't reach 1943...

[Canoerebel]

4/5/42
 
Sumatra:  Japanese bombers out of Malaya sink five xAKL dropping off supplies at Sabang.  The American tank unit again beats up the ragged and retreating Japanese garrison.  Many of the Allies units at Oosthaven and Palembang are 100% prepped, so they've spent weeks or months training.  I've been keeping track of one low-experience unit - a Zuid Dutch infantry battaliion of about 25 AV.  On March 29, it's experience level was 38.  Eight days later, it is 41.  The commander is in the 40s in all categories, so he isn't a big help.  This is pretty solid evidence that rest/training is effective.  B-17s from Palembang did a port raid on Balikpan, damaging four xAK and xAP.

Java:  The Kongo/Haruna/Ise TF vanished.  I have no idea where it went.  So Royal Sovereign and friends are returning to Oosthaven.  No sign of imminent IJ move on Java.  Prompted by a NYGiants post, a small American battalion that was inbound to Cocos Island, which already has an AV of about 60, will instead go to Christmas Island (IO), thus preventing Japan from making a snap invasion.  Upon arrival there, I'll send part of a base force to handle patrol aircraft.

China:  Chinese deliberate attack at Kukong comes off at 2:1 but can't quite dislodge the enemy.  A shock attack tomorrow may do the trick.

NoPac:  Nells and Bettys sink the American ACM in port at Paramushiro.  IJ shipping at Shimishura Jima.  No sign of KB or other big boys at the moment.  Warspite and Idaho will return to Amchitka in two days.  A USA battalion is loading aboard transports to see if Amchitka can be taken on the cheap.

Second Thoughts:  I"m still debating whether to expend PP to allow 27th Div. to join the battle for Sumatra or vicinity, or whether to instead buy units to permit invasions in the Gilberts.  While the DEI is more vital, a big Allied push in the Gilberts would be a blow to Japan in yet another region.  Tough call here.

[princep01]

CR, a reminder stated by me and others previously.....winning the battle of Palembang/Sumatra wins the war. Conquering the Gilberts....wins the Gilberts.

[Canoerebel]

Right.  But an argument can be made that another solid punch in an important region keeps the enemy reeling and unable to effectively concentrate on Sumatra.  And the Gilberts are important, not only on their own merit but because taking them poses a major threat to the enemy's LOC to New Calendonia and Fiji.  It would  be a blow, make no mistake.
 
Meanwhile, I am not sure that 27th Division should be committed to Sumatra.  I probably have enough troops ashore to wage that battle effectively for many months to come.  I could possibly use 27th Div. to invade Denpassar, Koepang, or possibly even Malaya, which would rattle Steve and hurt his position, but it hurts him where he's already hurting, so I'm not positive the impact of using 27th Div. in the DEI is as strong as would be a major American offensive in the Gilberts.
 
Also complicating this equation is the need for carrier support in a Gilberts operation.  I can't afford to shift them from the DEI right now.
 
This is a complicated question on deep levels requiring thought far beyond what seems obvious on the sufrace...or so I think.

[princep01]

CR I respectfully disagree. One of my clients was infamous when we were planning case strategy for saying at critical junctions, "Never ignore the obvious". He said it so often, we could usually quote that in unison with him. It was good for a laugh. Subsequent events have led me to believe that life is often just that simple. Call me Pollyannish, but I think that concept applies here.

As stated before, I believe you have conducted a really fine defense against the Japanese tide. In fact, I believe the game is won regardless of what you do with 27th Div (short of a human sacrifice by having it sunk at sea). From the moment you sank those AOs feeding the KB, I smiled at the audacity and psychological impact I thought the move would have on your opponent. Subsequent events have confirmed that suspicion.

But, the Gilberts??? If he chases up to the Kuriles (a much more strategically important area than the Gilberts) with KB, well, I guess creating another place for the enemy to diddle about in could be a diversion from concentrating on getting you out of Fortress Palembang, but do you REALLY think he will squander KB or even other substantial forces, chasing about in the Gilberts? I don't. Further, I have to disagree about the value of the Gilberts given the current situation. Its just me, but the value of the Gilberts now is that of the teats on the proverbial boar hog.

I don't know what your opponent is thinking, as I do not read his AAR. However, I must say that I believe you have forced him to alter whatever early plans he made. The thrashing about once you blunted several attempts to grab bases that are generally automatic Japanese possessions by the end of January confirmed that to me. Your conduct has been eye openingly brilliant. First there was the early aggressive use of limited surface forces. Then the Palembang gambit. That gambit basically new to me (I know it is not unique to this game from other comments, but this is the first time I have watched it unfold). I have watched your attitude and commitment to it evolve as well. Stick with it. Don't underutilize great assets like the 27th by grabbing poison pawns around the chess board. Even the great Fisher learned that lesson again Spasski in an early game in Iceland. IF you think you are truly equipped to first hold, then go on the offensive out of southern Sumatra with the troops in place, okay, use the 27th elsewhere. But, I'd think it much more valuable to use it or an equivalent invading Shanklin Is. and otherwise developing a threat that really hurts than to spend the resources grabbing the great empty.

The Gilberts?? Blah. The best you're going to get out of that is to increase the experience of 27th.

[Nemo121]

I don't think it is essential to commit the US 27th to Festung Palembang.

I think it should either form the core of a force for the invasion of Malaysia in 4 to 6 weeks time OR should be used in the Pacific. In the Pacific though the Gilberts aren't necessarily all that important. What about going for one of the Marianas or going for the Marshalls? THAT would have an impact. I'm not sure the Gilberts would have the necessary impact in terms of complicating your opponent's situation.

In terms of timing.... Within 1 week of the crescendo of his attack on Southern Sumatra - it should take you 3 or 4 days to clearly show you will hold. Give it a day or two to sink in and then land somewhere strategically vital along his SLOCs while he is struggling to re-orient. The timing of this is critical. Too soon and you just give him one problem with 2 facets to orient to, too late and you just give him two problems in sequence. You want to catch him mid-re-orientation. It isn't just about where to invade but when. That's utterly crucial.

[Canoerebel]

Okay, I'll put all this in the hopper and see what I come up with.  Thanks for posting guys.

[Alfred]

Two comments on last few posts.

1. There is absolutely nothing wrong with the Poisoned Pawn Variation. The assessment is still =/+borne out by the general unwillingness of White players to offer the sacrifice.

2. You guys have something to look forward to when you get around to reading ChezDaJez's AAR.

Alfred

[paullus99]

What about an extremely audacious strike - Wake, Marcus & Iwo Jima? It'd make good your threat in the north & really throw him for a loop - even if the lodgement can't be permanently maintained, it'll screw him up something royal.

[John 3rd]

Paullus stole my thunder. You want to RATTLE your opponent? Take Wake or Marcus. Marcus would be much more bold but either one or both will provoke real consternation (on top of everything else) with the Allies.

You did something like this in our campaign and it was SOOOO unexpected that I wasn't able to respond very quickly...

"L'Audace. L'Audace. Toujour L'Audace!

[Canoerebel]

Iwo and Marcus would certainly be high on my list, though I think Steve has to be aware of their vulnerability.  I'll give that some thought. 
 
I play chess a little bit, but I have to confess I don't know what a poisoned pawn is.  Alfred's post is a bit hard for me to decipher.  He's probably thumping his palm on his forehead saying, "What's your problem?  Don't you read plain English?"

[Nemo121]

Alfred is talking about a chess gambit in which one player offers a sacrifice which, if taken, will result in a significant positional disadvantage for their opponent and which will, in the long run, hurt their opponent more than them.

The question is whom he is implying is using the poisoned pawn...

[Alfred]

The Poison Pawn Variation of the Najdorf Variation of the Sicilian Defence.

White, Black

1. e4, c5
2. Nf3, d6
3. d4, cd
4. Nd4, Nf6
5. Nc3, a6 (Najdorf Variation)
6. Bg5 (Main Line), e6
7. f4, Qb6 (Black "treats"@ White to offer the poissoned pawn)
8. Qd2 (White offers the b2 pawn which is the poissoned pawn), Qb2 (Black accepts - if he declines the position then is clearly bad for Black)

or

8. Nb3 (White declines to offer the b2 pawn, the position is now in Black's favour)

What is particularly unusual about this gambit is that the gambit is only possible if the other player "treats" for it first. Usually a gambit has no "treating", the material is offered and the other side decides to accept or decline. In other words, it is a 2 step process. In the Poissoned Pawn Variation it is a 3 step process.

@ "treats" is used akin to its legal meaning in contract law so Canoerebel will more easily understand the concept[:)]

Alfred

[princep01]

My God....has Albert created a space weapon for Chez and the Imperial Japanese. AP story re large piece of a comet barrelling toward Macon, GA on the night of May 20, 2011. Luckily, it was a big snowball rather than a iron rock and disintegrated rapidly. Doing 86K MPH when it hit the atmosphere. Nicely caught on camera by NASA sky watch. Canoe....I think those dastardly creeps are trying to decapitate the Allied brain trust. Be wary....very wary.

[Nemo121]

Is Canoerebel a lawyer? Damn, I must remember to be nastier to him in future [8D]

As to what Alfred is saying.... Well he's opaque - which is his intention. He is actually creating some dissonance regarding who here is white and who is black. Personally, I think both Canoe and Chez are both grey, albeit in different theatres, within the confines of the Najdorf paradigm...

[Canoerebel]

4/6/42
 
Cryptic-Analysis:  I think Alfred is referring to a move that I've made that Steve won't bite on, which of course could be either the Kuriles or Sumatra.  The trouble with cryptic comments is that they can be hard - sometimes impossible - to decipher.  As for enjoying reading Steve's AAR one of these days....heck, he hasn't posted in two weeks and was irregular before that.
 
China:  The Chinese keep scoring 2:1 attacks at Kukong, but don't take the base.  A 2:1 shock today didn't do the trick.  Since IJ reinforcements are just a few hexes away, the Chinese are going to retire towards Hengyang, hopefully I can work it so that they don't get mauled.  The Chinese are slowly on the move north and east of Sian, feeling for week spots.  The Japanese remain in force at Changsha.
 
NoPac:  Quiet here - no sign of IJ irruption, but then irruptions are usually sudden.  IJ shipping is at Shimishura Jima.  An Allied CA/CL/DD TF is sliding that way apparently undetected.  Something should happen tonight.  Allied D-Day at Amchitka should be in three days.
 
SoPac:  No signs of enemy moves.
 
DEI:  Lots of enemy bombers giving attention to western Sumatra.  Steve is clearly anxious to reclaim his position here.  That's good - any force allocated here, any day spent focused here, is another day of reprieve for eastern Sumatra.  Forts at Palembang are at 4.70, increasing at a rate of .02 per day.  Therefore, in roughly two to three weeks the forts should reach level 5.  No signs of imminent enemy activity against Java or eastern Sumatra.  Two more heavy AA units are approaching Oosthaven.  The Allies will have a decent flak capability at Palembang, but not so massive that I have to be embarrassed about "flooding the zone."
 
Carriers:  Sara and Lex will be ready for action at Colombo in six days.  Ent and York are south of Padang, Sumatra.  Indomitable and Hermes are a bit to the east of that location.  Signs of some IJ carriers (or CS) at Singapore.  It's nothing major - cursor shows 10 aux aircraft associated with this TF.  I haven't seen the KB since it retired from Fiji many weeks ago.

[Nemo121]

Canoe, I don't think your analysis there re: Alfred's intention is correct. You are assuming you are white. Assumptions are dangerous.