The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_SqzMyLemon_Canoerebel (A)

[Captain Cruft]

Did ABDA even remotely consider the possibility of doing anything like a Fortress Palembang IRL? The place is a malaria-infested swamp. Not really a good location for several divisions of troops who must survive on eating naptha sandwiches and trying to use petcoke pellets for ammo.

As to the "ship stuff in" argument, IRL there was not even the beginnings of any excess of "supply" in that area of the world in Dec 1941.

Really I don't think there's any argument about this, but most importantly it just renders the game totally uninteresting if the Allied player can pull it off. Who wants Game Over in Dec 1941?

[witpqs]

Whoa - I thought you had seen about 1,000 to 1,100 troops there! More than 10k now - you've got to attack methodically.

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: Miller
Only a poor IJN will let "Fortress Palembang" happen.

+1

HR is not appropriate. Good play is. [;)]

[PaxMondo]

This is going to be interesting to watch.  It looks as though he has 50% of the fortress in place.  If he can get the forts up to 3 before you get there ... swamp bonus plus forts will make it very costly to get Palembang.

[SqzMyLemon]

Post removed.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

Whoa - I thought you had seen about 1,000 to 1,100 troops there! More than 10k now - you've got to attack methodically.

In my original report I had mis-written the number as well! I had to double check today and realized i was off by a few.

It's actually 13,920. Up from 11,880 the turn before.

I write the AAR from one machine and play from another, so often certain things are not right in front of me.

So, yes, he's been working hard over there behind the scenes.

[JocMeister]

Hm, what would that mean in AV looking at a worst case scenario? The 18th is not there obviously but I guess he brought in the two brigades. Thats what around 250 or so AV? Probably a dutch regiment aswell. You could be looking at 300-500 unadjusted AV. With the swamp modifier and 2-3 forts I´m pretty sure a division + brigade won´t be enought. I think you missed the chance for a quick grab. [:(]

Its absolutly essential you close off Palembang right now! If he get the 18th in there you are going to need 10 divisions to dislodge him. Get some Nells there ASAP and move in the battlefleet and make sure NOTHING gets into P by sea.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

Hm, what would that mean in AV looking at a worst case scenario? The 18th is not there obviously but I guess he brought in the two brigades. Thats what around 250 or so AV? Probably a dutch regiment aswell. You could be looking at 300-500 unadjusted AV. With the swamp modifier and 2-3 forts I´m pretty sure a division + brigade won´t be enought. I think you missed the chance for a quick grab. [:(]

Its absolutly essential you close off Palembang right now! If he get the 18th in there you are going to need 10 divisions to dislodge him. Get some Nells there ASAP and move in the battlefleet and make sure NOTHING gets into P by sea.

Just so I know what timeframe I have, how long do you think it will take to get the 18th there? A month from the beginning? 3 weeks?

All naval forces are being marshalled and sent in. It will be fun at least!

[JocMeister]

Well, they start loaded to go in CT! If he split the convoy to let the fast ships race ahead they might show up any day now. Someone smarter then me might be able to calculate the earliest possible date. [:D]

[obvert]

The turn is away.

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West DEI:

Lots of naval forces moving into the Singkawang area. A 4 CA 5 DD TF leads the way, with another 2 CA 5 DD TF coming along to set up one hex away. The hope is to attract attention and fight any and all ships nearby. He's fond of sending multiple smaller TFs to flood an area, so these are meant to be strong enough to take on a larger force but in multiple TFs to have something possibly fresh around at all times. I allocated 5 SCTFs that will be in the area in the next few days.

A feint of transports will follow with a surface group and supported by the strengthening mini-KB (now with a total of 30 zeros and 28 Kates) which is on the way to Miri to post and refuel. The transports will try to reach Billiton with troops, to see what happens. Just a small AF Coy on board. Many small TFs are radiating out from Cam Ran Bay and Saigon to support the operations.

Minesweeping is needed at Kuching, as some gifts were left there. Then supply will move in. Engineers are heading to Singkawang and to Kuching.

Brunei will be invaded in the next day or two. Troops are walking to Kudat from Jesselton. Beaufort will be invaded within the week just to stay tidy in the area.

Transports are now able to move to Hong Kong after the mines were cleared. They will pick up the 38th division to head to Palembang. This, the Brigade, and elements of the division starting at Sendai will be the first forces able to land there should conditions prove amenable to send them in the next week. Good conditions will mean some surface forces have been engaged, sweeps are going over the fields at Palembang and a bombing campaign or bombardments have hit the base. all of these depend on my logistical success and reactions of my opponent to moves in the next few days. I need supply at Kuching and can't reach Sumatra yet from there with no drop tanks.

East DEI:

Transports are heading to Samah to load up for Tarakan and Balikpapan. Same at Babeldaob for Kendari and Macassar. I might leave Ambon for a bit, but I'll see how things stack up in a few days. BBs supporting Mindanao landings are heading back to Babeldaob to replenish and then will transit to W Borneo to support Palembang landings.


Pacific and PI:

Transports should be on the way from Babeldaob to Guam and Naga tomorrow. Thinking of paradropping Malaybalay and sending the 80 AV tank rgt to Cagayan to get Mindanao sorted early. The regiment in Davao is moving out quickly to sweep across the island. A smaller garrison lands for that base today.

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It's been interesting reading and responding over the last few days. I love all of the comments and criticisms. Even if some are hard to hear I welcome anything that will make me a better player during this or in subsequent games. I remember being amazed at Greyjoy's ability to deal with the amount of ideas and sometimes vociferous comments especially early on in his AAR with rader, and yet to respond to it all with charm and good humor. I'm no Greyjoy, as a player or a writer of AARs, but it's great to keep in mind how much he developed in that one game and how he did it through accepting all of those various ideas about how the game can be (or in some commentators thoughts, 'should') be played, and assimilating them sooner or later into his own style.

[font="Trebuchet MS"]'Actually the worst thing you can do is to undervaluate your enemy.'[/font]

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Many of you will know what is going on from Torsten's side. Great to have a dual AAR situation happening for both of us. Interesting comments in a mail from him today. I said I was catching some flak for not having landed at Palembang yet, and he said he didn't want to spoil any surprises there, 'but you'll find out what I mean and will be pleasently surprised!'

Not sure at all how to read that one. Who knows, maybe he's sending stuff to Singapore to hold there longer because he doesn't believe in a fortress Palembang, and is just hoping to lure a bunch of my troops to their deaths in the seas as I try to scurry there. Time will tell. [;)]

[obvert]

Also. I've been doing some reading while I sit and proctor exams. This is from CR's 'Tokyo Rose' AAR. Even the 15th might be too late to completely thwart the fortress if the Allies are all-in and as crafty as he was in that game.

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12/15/41

The AV at Palembang is up to 186.

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I checked in with Dan about using some more numbers from his AAR, and he was very gracious in allowing that, so here is a list by day of what he was able to do with his fortress.

I've also included a few quotes from Nemo. Miss him being around to provide insight and another perspective to discussions.

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12/17/41

The Allied AV at Palembang is at 217 and will reach something like 285 tomorrow.

12/18/41

Allied AV at Palembang is up to 300 and climbing at about 30 per day

12/19/41

Palembang AV up to 338. That "Burma Relief Force" I diverted from Rangoon to Socatra a few days ago? Nah. Let's send that Indian brigade to Palembang.

12/20/41

The Allied AV at Palembang is up to 374. Most of these are "light" troops without any heavy weapons, so the garrison isn't as strong as it might seem.

12/21/42

Palembang's AV is up to 403.

12/22/41

The AV at Palembang increased to 421

12/23/41

The AV at Palembang is up to 470.

12/24/41

Palembang's AV increased to 486

He missed the 12/25/41 report, so here is quote from Nemo:

[font="Trebuchet MS"]Landing at Palembang itself is VERY difficult for Japan because only its light cruisers ( and other light escorts ) can accompany the landing ships. This means that if the Allies get 6 inch CD guns into Palembang they should be able to seriously chew up the Japanese invasion forces. Add to that the fact that Allied bombers can strike the unloading ships while under CAP of fighters at Palembang ( thus the fighters are much more effective than if escorting ) AND the fact that all you need to do is disrupt the landings so the Dutch etc can get a few days of free bombardments in ( which raises their experience from the mid-20s to mid-40s ) and combined with forts and the swamp terrain ( which gives a x 6 defensive bonus cumulatively if you get level 6 forts ) and I doubt that an equal number of IJA troops would be able to take Palembang.

No, it'd be much, much better for the Japanese to land at Oosthaven where they can bring CAs and BBs or at the base on western Sumatra.

Either of those landings will simply result in the dutch and reinforcements withdrawing onto Palembang, gathering there for a final defensive battle and in so doing destroying huge portions of the infrastructure there.


The acme of strategy is the art of providing your opponent the freedom of action to choose between multiple options, all of which doom them. I chose the Palembang Gambit because I recognised that in so doing ( combined with aggressive raiding elsewhere --- pretty much the template Canoerebel is using in this game ) it would allow me to create a situation in which the Japanese initiative was negated and in which any choice they made would result in the undoing of their industrial base ( which is, of course, the true target of most Allied actions in-game ).

Is the supply abstraction at Palembang unrealistic? Yes, a refinery like that wouldn't make 1,000 tons of general supplies per day BUT the same rules apply everywhere else. In the end within 3 months of game start I had some 250,000 tons of supplies on Sumatra so that shows that any defence was predicated on bringing supplies in, not on the supply generation. So, overall, I think the issue is a moot point as it is very much a swings and roundabouts situaiton. [/font]

12/26/41

Palembang's AV is up to 515

12/27/41

Palembang garrison is up to 535 AV.

12/28/41

The AV at Palembang is up to 549.

12/29/41

Palembang AV is up to 560. Indian brigade mostly unloaded at Oosthaven with AV 100.

12/30/41

Allied AV at Palembang at 577.

12/31/41

Allied AV at Palembang is up to 599 (forts 2.45%; most of the infantry units are prepped in the high 20s now).

1/1/42 and 1/2/42

Allied AV at Palembang up to 624.

1/3/42

Part of the Sarawak CD unit should unload at Oosthaven tonight. AV at Palembang up to 638 with forts at 2.6.

1/4/42

Palembang AV is up to 657

1/5/42

Palembang AV up to 670.

1/7/42

Palembang AV up to 671; Oosthaven AV to 154; Singapore AV to 935.

1/8/42

Palembag AV 678; Oosthaven 159; Singapore 940.

1/9/42

Palembang AV 683 (forts about to go to three); Oosthaven AV 164 (forts about to go to two); Singapore AV 941 (forts 3.5)

Nemo again:

[font="Trebuchet MS"]Palembang: it isn't essential to Japan ( I did the analysis which showed the Jap economy can run full bore without any input from Palembang) BUT it is essential if Japan wants to be able to sustain a war of attrition as it supports significant expansion of the Japanese HI.
[/font]

[Canoerebel]

I wasn't crafty in the "Tokyo Rose" game.  I was lucky.  My opponent focused soley on the Philippines and other distant objectives, giving me total access to Palembang that never stopped.  He could have easily addressed the sitaution in December 1941...after that, he could have easily cauterized Palembang (taking Oosthaven and some of the islands on both sides of Palembang), thus isolating the "infection," preventing me from reinforcing it, and then he could have dealt with it at his leisure.
 
Even with so much AV committed to Palembang, I was sweating things deep into the summer of 1942.  First, he might've cauterized the area and then moved on to invade India, which was weakly defended.  Or, he could've committed everything he had (land, sea and air) to attend to Palembang.  It would've been a tough battle, but the Allies couldn't afford to lose the troops that were rather exposed there.  Lose 5,000 or 6,000 AV, mostly UK and Indian troops, and the Allied player would be hurting.
 
If I were a Japanese player, I don't think I would sweat 500 AV at Palembang (assuming this is Scenario Two) as long as I attended timely to Oosthaven, Benkolen, and some of those islands.  At that point, Palembang becomes a prison that may be more costly to the Allied player than it is to me.  The key is to cauterize and prevent the Allied player from turning a minor redoubt into a major fortress.
 
Caveat:  I've just started reading this AAR and have only read the last 31 posts.  I don't even know what Scenario they're playing.  So my insight may be way off. 

[witpqs]

I thought that IJN CAs could get to Palembang too? Nemo's post quoted above says only light cruisers.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Caveat:  I've just started reading this AAR and have only read the last 31 posts.  I don't even know what Scenario they're playing.  So my insight may be way off. 

It is Scen 1, so I do have to be a bit more careful and deal with this as soon as I can.

ORIGINAL: witpqs

I thought that IJN CAs could get to Palembang too? Nemo's post quoted above says only light cruisers.

I'm fairly positive CAs can move to Palembang. They can certainly go to Saigon and Rangoon.

[Canoerebel]

No, I don't think CAs can go to Palembang.  Nothing larger than a CL, IIRC.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

No, I don't think CAs can go to Palembang.  Nothing larger than a CL, IIRC.

That's very good to know!

[Ingtar]

You were speaking of house rules for Palembang earlier. Would requiring the Allied player to turn off everything at Palembang remove the supply generation and make this a more "realistic" fight?

[Canoerebel]

There's no need for house rules for Palembang.  It is within Japan's power to handle Palembang no matter what the Allies do.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Ingtar

You were speaking of house rules for Palembang earlier. Would requiring the Allied player to turn off everything at Palembang remove the supply generation and make this a more "realistic" fight?

Several players were mentioning supply issues and possible HRs for Palembang. It seems to always come up regarding this particular strategy. I can't comment too much on the 'reality' of logistical possibilities in the area during the war. I'm sure it must have presented many problem due to the terrain, climate, etc.

In game, the Allies have tons of supply available to bring in if needed. I think if they turned off the oil it would hurt but not be impossible to maintain a good-sized garrison here as long as Oosthaven was in their hands, and to a lesser extent Benkolen.

[Grfin Zeppelin]

All Japanese heavy Cruisers can enter the Palembang hex.