Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwinkle58 vs.1EyedJacks

[Crackaces]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: Commander Cody

Well done, Sir.

Would a deliberate attack be worth it here? I guess with 1/1 detection across the causeway that would be too risky. A couple of fresh divisions could be coming over.

Any sort of attack which gives up Forts and turns the terrain bonus 180 degrees is fatal for me. My troops stay in their fighting holes, sip tea, and try to forget how hungry they are.

.......

Not only the terrain and forts .. but inexperience and supply hurt the attacker ..it seems in both firepower and AV ..

One thing I noted different about your situation and you noted on this with combat report animation .. the Imperial Guards were in the frey and that is great they took casulties .. Where is the IJ going to look for reserves .. Not to highjack this thread but the in the context of your thoughts on forts and terrain . I think you are absolutely right on ... Just as evidence from my lastest game .. I got a series of what I thought were great results but once the fort levels went to zero ..everybody surrendered ..

I thought I would include evidence [N=1] of my thought process for my post. Here are a series of combat reports from my current PBEM 27 JAN 42 - the surrender date of 07 FEB 1942. I felt pretty good I was extracting a good toll on the IJA but once forts went to zero and the subsequent AV bonus went away .... everybody just gave up:

Ground combat at Singapore (50,84)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 23390 troops, 334 guns, 129 vehicles, Assault Value = 1278

Defending force 32769 troops, 405 guns, 164 vehicles, Assault Value = 862

Japanese adjusted assault: 104

Allied adjusted defense: 1187

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 11 (fort level 2)

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), preparation(-), morale(-), experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
3095 casualties reported
Squads: 9 destroyed, 205 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 26 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 19 disabled
Guns lost 20 (1 destroyed, 19 disabled)


Allied ground losses:
291 casualties reported
Squads: 9 destroyed, 28 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 4 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 2 disabled
Guns lost 5 (1 destroyed, 4 disabled)
...........
[A couple of days of ground bombing and bombardment .]


......................

Ground combat at Singapore (50,84)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 22709 troops, 345 guns, 129 vehicles, Assault Value = 1442

Defending force 32786 troops, 404 guns, 164 vehicles, Assault Value = 831

Japanese engineers reduce fortifications to 1

Japanese adjusted assault: 532

Allied adjusted defense: 1175

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 2 (fort level 1)

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
2061 casualties reported
Squads: 5 destroyed, 209 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 20 disabled
Engineers: 2 destroyed, 11 disabled


Allied ground losses:
800 casualties reported
Squads: 9 destroyed, 50 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 39 disabled
Engineers: 2 destroyed, 13 disabled
Guns lost 25 (10 destroyed, 15 disabled)
.......................

Ground combat at Singapore (50,84)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 16086 troops, 272 guns, 60 vehicles, Assault Value = 1465

Defending force 32384 troops, 397 guns, 164 vehicles, Assault Value = 791

Japanese adjusted assault: 7

Allied adjusted defense: 1219

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 174 (fort level 1)

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), preparation(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
2009 casualties reported
Squads: 31 destroyed, 134 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 22 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 7 disabled
Guns lost 39 (2 destroyed, 37 disabled)


Allied ground losses:
96 casualties reported
Squads: 3 destroyed, 19 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
..................

Ground combat at Singapore (50,84)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 19340 troops, 334 guns, 128 vehicles, Assault Value = 1368

Defending force 32306 troops, 397 guns, 164 vehicles, Assault Value = 774

Japanese engineers reduce fortifications to 0

Japanese adjusted assault: 6

Allied adjusted defense: 861

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 143 (fort level 0)

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), morale(-), experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
2353 casualties reported
Squads: 35 destroyed, 112 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 14 disabled
Engineers: 17 destroyed, 12 disabled
Guns lost 30 (3 destroyed, 27 disabled)


Allied ground losses:
75 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 9 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
.................

Ground combat at Singapore (50,84)

Japanese Shock attack

Attacking force 22006 troops, 302 guns, 265 vehicles, Assault Value = 1761

Defending force 32380 troops, 397 guns, 164 vehicles, Assault Value = 777

Japanese adjusted assault: 288

Allied adjusted defense: 777

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 2 (fort level 0)

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), preparation(-), morale(-), experience(-)
Attacker: shock(+)

Japanese ground losses:
1550 casualties reported
Squads: 213 destroyed, 23 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 55 disabled
Engineers: 2 destroyed, 18 disabled
Guns lost 40 (1 destroyed, 39 disabled)


Allied ground losses:
409 casualties reported
Squads: 27 destroyed, 66 disabled
Non Combat: 2 destroyed, 47 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Guns lost 16 (1 destroyed, 15 disabled)
Vehicles lost 64 (28 destroyed, 36 disabled)
.....................

Ground combat at Singapore (50,84)

Japanese Shock attack

Attacking force 59685 troops, 692 guns, 444 vehicles, Assault Value = 1649

Defending force 31651 troops, 396 guns, 139 vehicles, Assault Value = 693

Japanese adjusted assault: 524

Allied adjusted defense: 761

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 2 (fort level 0)

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), preparation(-), experience(-)
Attacker: shock(+)

Japanese ground losses:
3440 casualties reported
Squads: 56 destroyed, 182 disabled
Non Combat: 3 destroyed, 109 disabled
Engineers: 28 destroyed, 47 disabled
Guns lost 69 (33 destroyed, 36 disabled)
Vehicles lost 30 (2 destroyed, 28 disabled)


Allied ground losses:
984 casualties reported
Squads: 21 destroyed, 234 disabled
Non Combat: 5 destroyed, 73 disabled
Engineers: 5 destroyed, 29 disabled
Guns lost 69 (12 destroyed, 57 disabled)
Vehicles lost 16 (9 destroyed, 7 disabled)
Units destroyed 1
......................

Ground combat at Singapore (50,84)

Japanese Shock attack

Attacking force 21129 troops, 352 guns, 129 vehicles, Assault Value = 1452

Defending force 30319 troops, 387 guns, 131 vehicles, Assault Value = 522

Japanese adjusted assault: 45

Allied adjusted defense: 713

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 15 (fort level 0)

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), experience(-)
Attacker: shock(+)

Japanese ground losses:
2910 casualties reported
Squads: 48 destroyed, 151 disabled
Non Combat: 4 destroyed, 48 disabled
Engineers: 26 destroyed, 21 disabled
Guns lost 20 (9 destroyed, 11 disabled)


Allied ground losses:
844 casualties reported
Squads: 28 destroyed, 33 disabled
Non Combat: 10 destroyed, 36 disabled
Engineers: 2 destroyed, 8 disabled
Guns lost 12 (5 destroyed, 7 disabled)
Vehicles lost 6 (2 destroyed, 4 disabled
..................

Ground combat at Singapore (50,84)

Japanese Shock attack

Attacking force 20672 troops, 363 guns, 230 vehicles, Assault Value = 1389

Defending force 29693 troops, 383 guns, 129 vehicles, Assault Value = 495

Japanese adjusted assault: 230

Allied adjusted defense: 921

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 4 (fort level 0)

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), experience(-)
Attacker: shock(+)

Japanese ground losses:
4399 casualties reported
Squads: 67 destroyed, 121 disabled
Non Combat: 4 destroyed, 38 disabled
Engineers: 31 destroyed, 20 disabled
Guns lost 41 (6 destroyed, 35 disabled)
Vehicles lost 24 (1 destroyed, 23 disabled)


Allied ground losses:
639 casualties reported
Squads: 30 destroyed, 11 disabled
Non Combat: 4 destroyed, 15 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Guns lost 11 (2 destroyed, 9 disabled)
..............

Ground combat at Singapore (50,84)

Japanese Shock attack

Attacking force 52815 troops, 673 guns, 443 vehicles, Assault Value = 1286

Defending force 29479 troops, 381 guns, 129 vehicles, Assault Value = 473

Japanese adjusted assault: 2095

Allied adjusted defense: 613

Japanese assault odds: 3 to 1 (fort level 0)

Japanese forces CAPTURE Singapore !!!

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), experience(-)
Attacker: shock(+)

Japanese ground losses:
3019 casualties reported
Squads: 34 destroyed, 108 disabled
Non Combat: 13 destroyed, 127 disabled
Engineers: 3 destroyed, 10 disabled
Guns lost 19 (7 destroyed, 12 disabled)


Allied ground losses:
34573 casualties reported
Squads: 984 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 2493 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 117 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 426 (426 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Vehicles lost 187 (187 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Units destroyed 34
.................

However, as I mentioned before these losses in IJA forces given scenario #1 threw a huge mokey wrench into the Burma campaign. So my point being that there are the forces and evidence [N=1, my currrent game] for the IJ to keep taking losses and reduce the fort levels at a tremendous cost .. if your opponent so desires ... I am thinking although he is reeling right now from the punch in the nose and finding units to throw into the frey ..... [8D]

Ok back to your local braodcast .[:D]

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58
Strategically though, Singers is a big tall speed bump on the way to Burma.

It's not a given that Singapore falls, you know. Many players have held it versus the AI. A few against other human players until game end.

There's a 'window' for Singapore's vulnerability. Thereafter it becomes more and more difficult / impregnable with reasonable Japanese force dedication. Woe unto the Japanese player that fritters his offensive opportunity here. Once you're past historical timelines, you could hold out months longer, given your supply situation.

Your FT regimen sounds good-1000 supplies every couple days should at least hold you even with a small surplus.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58
Bombed Singers as usual wiht usual results.

So-just to be clear-he's bombing airfields only? No ground attack or port attack? Furthermore, he's been historically bombing airfields / port only and no ground attack?

I just have difficulty grasping how you could continue to build forts if your airfields were bombed every day. My understanding is that, if the damages were incapable of being fully repaired ever day, that no such fort building could commence / occur-that was a secondary subroutine for the engineers.

If he varied his daily blasting of your airfields, that was a mistake.

I'd have to do a day-by-day census, but he's bombed the airfield at least 90% of the time. He has bombed troops elsewhere, such as in Burma, but Singers it was the AF. I think early it was to try to kill the TBs which threaten landings up north for the Japanese, and later for CAP reduction and fort building prevention. One problem with bombing the port is I had nothing there except harbor defense small fry designed to suck sorties away from the yards, as well as you take a chance on damaging the yard which you yourself hope to own shortly. I think a good argument can be made for bombing LI and HI instead, since supply is Singers' Achilles heel. But destroying supply directly at the AF is a good tactic too.

I was able to repair the AF and runway damage most days to 100% and get a little fort building in too. On the very first day of the war I strat-loaded every engineer unit in Malaysia except any which were needed to re-combine divisions, and sent them to Singers to build forts. I think I expanded the AF one level for stacking and the port not at all. Most days even with air attacks I got about 3% fort building between levels 3 and 4. Every LCU once it got to Singers had replacements ON even though few if any took them. I replaced any CO with stats below 40, even engineers.

I had hoped to get most of the way to Forts 5. The AF bombing prevented that.

[jeffk3510]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

From today's movie. Why I think sub patrols in the Sea of Japan are a good idea. This is from one boat; there are no airborne recon or search assets at all.

I would agree with you. Even though you get get a lot of hits with out detonating, you will bag a ship or two early on. It atleast makes him devote some resources to that area.

[Crackaces]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58
Strategically though, Singers is a big tall speed bump on the way to Burma.

It's not a given that Singapore falls, you know. Many players have held it versus the AI. A few against other human players until game end.

There's a 'window' for Singapore's vulnerability. Thereafter it becomes more and more difficult / impregnable with reasonable Japanese force dedication. Woe unto the Japanese player that fritters his offensive opportunity here. Once you're past historical timelines, you could hold out months longer, given your supply situation.

Your FT regimen sounds good-1000 supplies every couple days should at least hold you even with a small surplus.

If you look at my last result in my post above .. you will see that Singers was supplied enough not to get a (-) ... but reducing the fort level was disasterious .. It will be interesting if the IJ continue the attack at a great costs but avoid the situation you describe .. Singers held to the end of the game [X(].. The situation you descibe and my recent experince I posted above is why I proposed that the question is not that the IJ can't attack .. but in fact must find units quickly and in fact attack even at great losses to hurry up and reduce the fort level. Not doing so will result in the disaster you describe.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Crackaces

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: Commander Cody

Well done, Sir.

Would a deliberate attack be worth it here? I guess with 1/1 detection across the causeway that would be too risky. A couple of fresh divisions could be coming over.

Any sort of attack which gives up Forts and turns the terrain bonus 180 degrees is fatal for me. My troops stay in their fighting holes, sip tea, and try to forget how hungry they are.

.......

Not only the terrain and forts .. but inexperience and supply hurt the attacker ..it seems in both firepower and AV ..

One thing I noted different about your situation and you noted on this with combat report animation .. the Imperial Guards were in the frey and that is great they took casulties .. Where is the IJ going to look for reserves .. Not to highjack this thread but the in the context of your thoughts on forts and terrain . I think you are absolutely right on ... Just as evidence from my lastest game .. I got a series of what I thought were great results but once the fort levels went to zero ..everybody surrendered ..

I thought I would include evidence [N=1] of my thought process for my post. Here are a series of combat reports from my current PBEM 27 JAN 42 - the surrender date of 07 FEB 1942. I felt pretty good I was extracting a good toll on the IJA but once forts went to zero and the subsequent AV bonus went away .... everybody just gave up:

Ground combat at Singapore (50,84)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 23390 troops, 334 guns, 129 vehicles, Assault Value = 1278

Defending force 32769 troops, 405 guns, 164 vehicles, Assault Value = 862

Japanese adjusted assault: 104

Allied adjusted defense: 1187

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 11 (fort level 2)

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), preparation(-), morale(-), experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
3095 casualties reported
Squads: 9 destroyed, 205 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 26 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 19 disabled
Guns lost 20 (1 destroyed, 19 disabled)


Allied ground losses:
291 casualties reported
Squads: 9 destroyed, 28 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 4 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 2 disabled
Guns lost 5 (1 destroyed, 4 disabled)
...........
[A couple of days of ground bombing and bombardment .]


......................

Ground combat at Singapore (50,84)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 22709 troops, 345 guns, 129 vehicles, Assault Value = 1442

Defending force 32786 troops, 404 guns, 164 vehicles, Assault Value = 831

Japanese engineers reduce fortifications to 1

Japanese adjusted assault: 532

Allied adjusted defense: 1175

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 2 (fort level 1)

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
2061 casualties reported
Squads: 5 destroyed, 209 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 20 disabled
Engineers: 2 destroyed, 11 disabled


Allied ground losses:
800 casualties reported
Squads: 9 destroyed, 50 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 39 disabled
Engineers: 2 destroyed, 13 disabled
Guns lost 25 (10 destroyed, 15 disabled)
.......................

Ground combat at Singapore (50,84)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 16086 troops, 272 guns, 60 vehicles, Assault Value = 1465

Defending force 32384 troops, 397 guns, 164 vehicles, Assault Value = 791

Japanese adjusted assault: 7

Allied adjusted defense: 1219

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 174 (fort level 1)

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), preparation(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
2009 casualties reported
Squads: 31 destroyed, 134 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 22 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 7 disabled
Guns lost 39 (2 destroyed, 37 disabled)


Allied ground losses:
96 casualties reported
Squads: 3 destroyed, 19 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
..................

Ground combat at Singapore (50,84)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 19340 troops, 334 guns, 128 vehicles, Assault Value = 1368

Defending force 32306 troops, 397 guns, 164 vehicles, Assault Value = 774

Japanese engineers reduce fortifications to 0

Japanese adjusted assault: 6

Allied adjusted defense: 861

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 143 (fort level 0)

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), morale(-), experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
2353 casualties reported
Squads: 35 destroyed, 112 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 14 disabled
Engineers: 17 destroyed, 12 disabled
Guns lost 30 (3 destroyed, 27 disabled)


Allied ground losses:
75 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 9 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
.................

Ground combat at Singapore (50,84)

Japanese Shock attack

Attacking force 22006 troops, 302 guns, 265 vehicles, Assault Value = 1761

Defending force 32380 troops, 397 guns, 164 vehicles, Assault Value = 777

Japanese adjusted assault: 288

Allied adjusted defense: 777

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 2 (fort level 0)

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), preparation(-), morale(-), experience(-)
Attacker: shock(+)

Japanese ground losses:
1550 casualties reported
Squads: 213 destroyed, 23 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 55 disabled
Engineers: 2 destroyed, 18 disabled
Guns lost 40 (1 destroyed, 39 disabled)


Allied ground losses:
409 casualties reported
Squads: 27 destroyed, 66 disabled
Non Combat: 2 destroyed, 47 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Guns lost 16 (1 destroyed, 15 disabled)
Vehicles lost 64 (28 destroyed, 36 disabled)
.....................

Ground combat at Singapore (50,84)

Japanese Shock attack

Attacking force 59685 troops, 692 guns, 444 vehicles, Assault Value = 1649

Defending force 31651 troops, 396 guns, 139 vehicles, Assault Value = 693

Japanese adjusted assault: 524

Allied adjusted defense: 761

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 2 (fort level 0)

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), preparation(-), experience(-)
Attacker: shock(+)

Japanese ground losses:
3440 casualties reported
Squads: 56 destroyed, 182 disabled
Non Combat: 3 destroyed, 109 disabled
Engineers: 28 destroyed, 47 disabled
Guns lost 69 (33 destroyed, 36 disabled)
Vehicles lost 30 (2 destroyed, 28 disabled)


Allied ground losses:
984 casualties reported
Squads: 21 destroyed, 234 disabled
Non Combat: 5 destroyed, 73 disabled
Engineers: 5 destroyed, 29 disabled
Guns lost 69 (12 destroyed, 57 disabled)
Vehicles lost 16 (9 destroyed, 7 disabled)
Units destroyed 1
......................

Ground combat at Singapore (50,84)

Japanese Shock attack

Attacking force 21129 troops, 352 guns, 129 vehicles, Assault Value = 1452

Defending force 30319 troops, 387 guns, 131 vehicles, Assault Value = 522

Japanese adjusted assault: 45

Allied adjusted defense: 713

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 15 (fort level 0)

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), experience(-)
Attacker: shock(+)

Japanese ground losses:
2910 casualties reported
Squads: 48 destroyed, 151 disabled
Non Combat: 4 destroyed, 48 disabled
Engineers: 26 destroyed, 21 disabled
Guns lost 20 (9 destroyed, 11 disabled)


Allied ground losses:
844 casualties reported
Squads: 28 destroyed, 33 disabled
Non Combat: 10 destroyed, 36 disabled
Engineers: 2 destroyed, 8 disabled
Guns lost 12 (5 destroyed, 7 disabled)
Vehicles lost 6 (2 destroyed, 4 disabled
..................

Ground combat at Singapore (50,84)

Japanese Shock attack

Attacking force 20672 troops, 363 guns, 230 vehicles, Assault Value = 1389

Defending force 29693 troops, 383 guns, 129 vehicles, Assault Value = 495

Japanese adjusted assault: 230

Allied adjusted defense: 921

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 4 (fort level 0)

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), experience(-)
Attacker: shock(+)

Japanese ground losses:
4399 casualties reported
Squads: 67 destroyed, 121 disabled
Non Combat: 4 destroyed, 38 disabled
Engineers: 31 destroyed, 20 disabled
Guns lost 41 (6 destroyed, 35 disabled)
Vehicles lost 24 (1 destroyed, 23 disabled)


Allied ground losses:
639 casualties reported
Squads: 30 destroyed, 11 disabled
Non Combat: 4 destroyed, 15 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Guns lost 11 (2 destroyed, 9 disabled)
..............

Ground combat at Singapore (50,84)

Japanese Shock attack

Attacking force 52815 troops, 673 guns, 443 vehicles, Assault Value = 1286

Defending force 29479 troops, 381 guns, 129 vehicles, Assault Value = 473

Japanese adjusted assault: 2095

Allied adjusted defense: 613

Japanese assault odds: 3 to 1 (fort level 0)

Japanese forces CAPTURE Singapore !!!

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), experience(-)
Attacker: shock(+)

Japanese ground losses:
3019 casualties reported
Squads: 34 destroyed, 108 disabled
Non Combat: 13 destroyed, 127 disabled
Engineers: 3 destroyed, 10 disabled
Guns lost 19 (7 destroyed, 12 disabled)


Allied ground losses:
34573 casualties reported
Squads: 984 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 2493 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 117 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 426 (426 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Vehicles lost 187 (187 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Units destroyed 34
.................

However, as I mentioned before these losses in IJA forces given scenario #1 threw a huge mokey wrench into the Burma campaign. So my point being that there are the forces and evidence [N=1, my currrent game] for the IJ to keep taking losses and reduce the fort levels at a tremendous cost .. if your opponent so desires ... I am thinking although he is reeling right now from the punch in the nose and finding units to throw into the frey ..... [8D]

Ok back to your local braodcast .[:D]

Just to be clear, nobody who reads this AAR should ever worry about hijacking it. I like traffic; it's one thing that keeps me writing. Forum space is cheap. If this AAR goes to 1000 pages so what? One deal I made with Mike pre-game was I would write it so he could examine it after and learn from it, and me from his. The more opinions that get chucked into the mix the more potential learning.

Your combat results are very interesting to me. I wish I had your opponent's decisions to lay alongside them. I suspect he played a lot with Reserve settings in the first few attacks. I also think he varied his engineer commitments a lot day-by-day, with more earlier. He also had a large reserve he only committed around the third day of attacks, after he saw you consistently show (-) on experience and morale. Morale is a killer; great COs help there I think. The KIA ratios are also illustrative across the days. Too many players focus on disabled. Dead is dead. But over the course of these attacks you did very well at Singers' main job--to cripple and delay. Scenario 1 is different, and in my game with no HRs he has the flexibility to move a lot of fresh troops down from Manchuria for Burma, but you still did very well with only Forts 2 as a starting point.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58
Strategically though, Singers is a big tall speed bump on the way to Burma.

It's not a given that Singapore falls, you know. Many players have held it versus the AI. A few against other human players until game end.

There's a 'window' for Singapore's vulnerability. Thereafter it becomes more and more difficult / impregnable with reasonable Japanese force dedication. Woe unto the Japanese player that fritters his offensive opportunity here. Once you're past historical timelines, you could hold out months longer, given your supply situation.

Your FT regimen sounds good-1000 supplies every couple days should at least hold you even with a small surplus.

In my last, aborted AI game (DBB A) I held Singers. I was down to about 7000 supply and being sieged. I risked the whole RN--BBs, carriers, the lot--to escort one big, 30,000+ supply chunk in past Oosthaven to Singers. It turned the tide. I re-built from Forts 1, he expended his engineers, I counter-attacked, killed something like 50,000 re-taking JB, and the rout was on.

The counter-attack wouldn't work in PBEM, and the relief TF would be cut up by Bettys, but some might get through. I still wouldn't flush the RN to save Singers though. I need it up north and Singers going over is not fatal. What is more fatal for Japan is losing the time.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: jeffk3510

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

From today's movie. Why I think sub patrols in the Sea of Japan are a good idea. This is from one boat; there are no airborne recon or search assets at all.

I would agree with you. Even though you get get a lot of hits with out detonating, you will bag a ship or two early on. It atleast makes him devote some resources to that area.

This is also a bit of magic code goodness. I can see the sub detecting the two southern TFs, but the one up near Wakk. is a gift. I'll take it, but it's a gift. The sub's zone also goes into Sapporo itself, a risk. When she was there yesterday there were no TFs.

[witpqs]

1) Never seen this message in aoperationsreport.txt

"100th RN Base Force DISPERSES!"

I'd have to check, but I think this is one in the bush post-attack somewhere. I assume VPs are awarded for the scraps?

This can but often does not have to do with a unit that was in combat that same turn. Many times it's a unit that starved to death, so you'll see these from time to time as units pushed out of bases in the DEI and Philippines then left to rot do just that.

I've never looked, but destroyed is destroyed so I feel certain the opposition gets points.

[Bullwinkle58]

I don't know if this helps, but here are the Tracker screens for Singers plus history. I'll see if I can pull up some comabt reports for the days no damage was recorded at the end of the day.

I think my memory is off on the port expansion too.

Here's the basic base status

[Bullwinkle58]

First set of days

[Bullwinkle58]

Second set of days

[Bullwinkle58]

Last set of days up to present turn

[Crackaces]

Your combat results are very interesting to me. I wish I had your opponent's decisions to lay alongside them. I suspect he played a lot with Reserve settings in the first few attacks. I also think he varied his engineer commitments a lot day-by-day, with more earlier. He also had a large reserve he only committed around the third day of attacks

I think what happend here is the forces first tried "follow" across the estuary and there is a software behavior where as all the units reset destination, and no movement occurs. After this behavior occured, the IJ set thier units up to "March" with units arriving over the course of 3 days. Each time having to perform the forced shock attack.

I felt very bad for the IJA ...

But my point was that in Scenario #1 with tremendous losses the IJ can still prevail at a cost. Although as you pointed out .. I started with fort level 2 ... you have fort level 4 at first confrontation. I suspect the Manchukuo units are getting on trains now ... [8D]

I also posted my results to align with your results in that we both used PP's replaced leaders. [N=2] I do think this action has consequinces far beyond the obvious.

[Bullwinkle58]

Here are the combat reports beginning with Day 50 (1/25/42) where it looks like he didn't bomb. My memory could be off; I'm very, very old. [:)] He did shift to Palembang a lot in there. I'll try to be succinct:

Day 50: no Singers attacks.

Day 51:

Morning Air attack on Singapore , at 50,84

Weather in hex: Partial cloud

Raid detected at 34 NM, estimated altitude 17,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 13 minutes

Japanese aircraft
G3M2 Nell x 9
Ki-27b Nate x 12

Japanese aircraft losses
G3M2 Nell: 2 damaged

Airbase hits 1
Airbase supply hits 1
Runway hits 11

Aircraft Attacking:
9 x G3M2 Nell bombing from 12000 feet
Airfield Attack: 2 x 250 kg GP Bomb, 4 x 60 kg GP Bomb

Day 52:

Morning Air attack on Singapore , at 50,84

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid detected at 40 NM, estimated altitude 13,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 15 minutes

Japanese aircraft
G3M2 Nell x 9
Ki-27b Nate x 12

Japanese aircraft losses
G3M2 Nell: 7 damaged

Airbase hits 2
Airbase supply hits 2
Runway hits 13

Aircraft Attacking:
9 x G3M2 Nell bombing from 12000 feet
Airfield Attack: 2 x 250 kg GP Bomb, 4 x 60 kg GP Bomb

Day 53:

Morning Air attack on Singapore , at 50,84

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid detected at 27 NM, estimated altitude 17,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 10 minutes

Japanese aircraft
G3M2 Nell x 9
Ki-27b Nate x 12

Japanese aircraft losses
G3M2 Nell: 7 damaged

Airbase hits 3
Runway hits 14

Aircraft Attacking:
9 x G3M2 Nell bombing from 12000 feet
Airfield Attack: 2 x 250 kg GP Bomb, 4 x 60 kg GP Bomb

Day 54: No attacks.

Day 55: No attacks.

Day 56:


Morning Air attack on Singapore , at 50,84

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid detected at 37 NM, estimated altitude 18,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 14 minutes

Japanese aircraft
G3M2 Nell x 4

Japanese aircraft losses
G3M2 Nell: 2 damaged

Aircraft Attacking:
4 x G3M2 Nell bombing from 12000 feet
Airfield Attack: 2 x 250 kg SAP Bomb, 4 x 60 kg GP Bomb

Morning Air attack on Singapore , at 50,84

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid detected at 38 NM, estimated altitude 14,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 10 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-21-IIa Sally x 13

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-21-IIa Sally: 6 damaged

Aircraft Attacking:
13 x Ki-21-IIa Sally bombing from 10000 feet
Port Attack: 4 x 250 kg GP Bomb

Morning Air attack on Singapore , at 50,84

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid detected at 40 NM, estimated altitude 13,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 11 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-21-IIa Sally x 30
Ki-27b Nate x 12

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-21-IIa Sally: 11 damaged
Ki-21-IIa Sally: 1 destroyed by flak

Port hits 1

Aircraft Attacking:
21 x Ki-21-IIa Sally bombing from 10000 feet
Ground Attack: 4 x 250 kg GP Bomb
8 x Ki-21-IIa Sally bombing from 10000 feet
Port Attack: 4 x 250 kg GP Bomb

Also attacking Singapore Fortress ...
Also attacking Singapore ...
Also attacking Singapore Base Force ...
Also attacking Singapore ...
Also attacking Singapore Fortress ...
Also attacking Singapore ...
Also attacking 11th Indian Division ...
Also attacking Singapore Fortress ...

Morning Air attack on Singapore , at 50,84

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid detected at 40 NM, estimated altitude 13,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 15 minutes

Japanese aircraft
G3M2 Nell x 3

Japanese aircraft losses
G3M2 Nell: 1 damaged

Runway hits 2

Aircraft Attacking:
3 x G3M2 Nell bombing from 12000 feet
Airfield Attack: 2 x 250 kg GP Bomb, 4 x 60 kg GP Bomb

Day 57:

Morning Air attack on Singapore , at 50,84

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid detected at 40 NM, estimated altitude 10,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 15 minutes

Japanese aircraft
G3M2 Nell x 7
Ki-27b Nate x 12

Japanese aircraft losses
G3M2 Nell: 3 damaged
G3M2 Nell: 1 destroyed by flak

Airbase hits 1
Runway hits 24

Aircraft Attacking:
7 x G3M2 Nell bombing from 10000 feet
Airfield Attack: 2 x 250 kg GP Bomb, 4 x 60 kg GP Bomb

Morning Air attack on Singapore Fortress, at 50,84 (Singapore)

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid detected at 40 NM, estimated altitude 13,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 11 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-21-IIa Sally x 45

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-21-IIa Sally: 20 damaged
Ki-21-IIa Sally: 1 destroyed by flak

Allied ground losses:
52 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 6 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Aircraft Attacking:
23 x Ki-21-IIa Sally bombing from 10000 feet
Ground Attack: 4 x 250 kg GP Bomb
21 x Ki-21-IIa Sally bombing from 10000 feet
Ground Attack: 4 x 250 kg GP Bomb

Also attacking Singapore Base Force ...
Also attacking 11th Indian Division ...
Also attacking Singapore Fortress ...
Also attacking Singapore Base Force ...
Also attacking Singapore Fortress ...

Day 58:

Morning Air attack on Singapore , at 50,84

Weather in hex: Partial cloud

Raid detected at 32 NM, estimated altitude 14,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 12 minutes

Japanese aircraft
G3M2 Nell x 6
Ki-27b Nate x 9

Japanese aircraft losses
G3M2 Nell: 4 damaged
G3M2 Nell: 1 destroyed by flak

Airbase hits 1
Runway hits 5

Aircraft Attacking:
5 x G3M2 Nell bombing from 10000 feet
Airfield Attack: 2 x 250 kg GP Bomb, 4 x 60 kg GP Bomb

Morning Air attack on Singapore Fortress, at 50,84 (Singapore)

Weather in hex: Partial cloud

Raid detected at 40 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 11 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-21-IIa Sally x 29
Ki-27b Nate x 3

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-21-IIa Sally: 29 damaged
Ki-21-IIa Sally: 1 destroyed by flak

Allied ground losses:
29 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 3 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Aircraft Attacking:
21 x Ki-21-IIa Sally bombing from 10000 feet
Ground Attack: 4 x 250 kg GP Bomb
8 x Ki-21-IIa Sally bombing from 10000 feet
Ground Attack: 4 x 250 kg GP Bomb

Also attacking 11th Indian Division ...
Also attacking Singapore Fortress ...
Also attacking 11th Indian Division ...
Also attacking Singapore Fortress ...


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Singapore Fortress, at 50,84 (Singapore)

Weather in hex: Partial cloud

Raid detected at 32 NM, estimated altitude 10,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 9 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-21-IIa Sally x 11

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-21-IIa Sally: 11 damaged

Aircraft Attacking:
11 x Ki-21-IIa Sally bombing from 10000 feet
Ground Attack: 4 x 250 kg GP Bomb

Day 59:

Afternoon Air attack on Singapore , at 50,84

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid detected at 33 NM, estimated altitude 13,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 12 minutes

Japanese aircraft
G3M2 Nell x 3
Ki-27b Nate x 3

Japanese aircraft losses
G3M2 Nell: 3 damaged

Runway hits 2

Aircraft Attacking:
3 x G3M2 Nell bombing from 10000 feet
Airfield Attack: 2 x 250 kg GP Bomb, 4 x 60 kg GP Bomb



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on Singapore , at 50,84

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid detected at 40 NM, estimated altitude 14,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 11 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-21-IIa Sally x 20
Ki-27b Nate x 9

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-21-IIa Sally: 18 damaged
Ki-21-IIa Sally: 1 destroyed by flak

Allied ground losses:
3 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Airbase hits 1
Runway hits 1

Aircraft Attacking:
10 x Ki-21-IIa Sally bombing from 10000 feet
Airfield Attack: 4 x 250 kg GP Bomb
9 x Ki-21-IIa Sally bombing from 10000 feet
Ground Attack: 4 x 250 kg GP Bomb

Also attacking Singapore Base Force ...
Also attacking Singapore ...
Also attacking Singapore Fortress ...
Also attacking Singapore ...
Also attacking 11th Indian Division ...

Day 60:

Morning Air attack on Singapore , at 50,84

Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid detected at 37 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 14 minutes

Japanese aircraft
G3M2 Nell x 4

Japanese aircraft losses
G3M2 Nell: 4 damaged

Airbase hits 1
Runway hits 7

Aircraft Attacking:
4 x G3M2 Nell bombing from 10000 feet
Airfield Attack: 2 x 250 kg GP Bomb, 4 x 60 kg GP Bomb

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Crackaces

Your combat results are very interesting to me. I wish I had your opponent's decisions to lay alongside them. I suspect he played a lot with Reserve settings in the first few attacks. I also think he varied his engineer commitments a lot day-by-day, with more earlier. He also had a large reserve he only committed around the third day of attacks

I think what happend here is the forces first tried "follow" across the estuary and there is a software behavior where as all the units reset destination, and no movement occurs. After this behavior occured, the IJ set thier units up to "March" with units arriving over the course of 3 days. Each time having to perform the forced shock attack.

I felt very bad for the IJA ...

But my point was that in Scenario #1 with tremendous losses the IJ can still prevail at a cost. Although as you pointed out .. I started with fort level 2 ... you have fort level 4 at first confrontation. I suspect the Manchukuo units are getting on trains now ... [8D]

I also posted my results to align with your results in that we both used PP's replaced leaders. [N=2] I do think this action has consequinces far beyond the obvious.

Ah. In my situation the LCUs arrived en masse; I think he gave them all separate orders and coordinated march speed times very well. About 30 LCUs came across and Shock attacked all at once. Hard to do in the interface. If he has a reserve I think the follow-ons won't shock attack as I understand the shock attack routines now, post-patch. He has well enough AV already in the hex to overcome the 1/3 rule.

[Bullwinkle58]

Looking back at the last ten days of Singers bombing a couple of things stand out, against what my memory was:

1) He shifted to troop bombing to prep the attack more than I recalled. His AF attacks were much stronger in earlier days. Once the CAP was wiped out and the TB threat diminished I think he shifted much more to bombing Palembang and China.

2) The amount of AA I got to Singers pretty early made AF attacks costly. He took the altitudes up.

3) Chickenboy was right--his AF attacks on Singers were not enough to keep Forts from going to 4. If he had shifted from Palembang and PI bombing and made a max effort he could have kept them at Forts 3+ by his chosen attack date. However, it was very easy for the Allies to get them to 3 and pretty early (Day 14), by a wholesale shift of engineers south.

[Crackaces]

It is neat to be able to look back at what seems to be insignificant decisions like shifting bombing targets creating a chain of events that will affect the entire war ... I do think this is what makes this particular game worth investing a lifetime ... despite some particularities ...[:D]

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

"100th RN Base Force DISPERSES!"

Most often I see this message during amphibious load / unload wherein some of the unit takes disruptive casualties coming across the beach and some is still loaded aboard ship. Pretty common.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

Here are the combat reports beginning with Day 50 (1/25/42) where it looks like he didn't bomb. My memory could be off; I'm very, very old. [:)] He did shift to Palembang a lot in there. I'll try to be succinct:

What I see here is a myriad of targets attacked at Singapore: Port, ground units and airfield. Airfield attacks are pathetic in terms of damage wrought.

This explains a lot in my book-he didn't focus on keeping the airfields consistently damaged. As a result, your engineers were able to quickly repair the minor airfield damage and keep on keeping on with the fort construction. Big mistake for him.

ETA: For you JFBs noobs out there reading this: Hit Singapore early and often. Daily. Once aerial fighter resistance ceases, the Singapore airfield should be the preeminent target of your Malay IJAAF bomber forces. You can / should be able to field 100+ airfield raids almost every day and keep the airfield damage in the teens-thirties. This will prevent additional construction of forts.

Don't fritter away your opportunities here by attacking other facilities and certainly don't attack ground units, unless and until the a/f is 100.0% damaged. Like the Allies will learn in future game sieges: bomb, bomb and bomb some more.