The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[Canoerebel]

11/11/42

I think it's worth posting major excerpts from the combat report (in the interest of time and information):

AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR Nov 11, 42
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Invasion Support action off Sabang (44,70)

Lots of troops ships begin unloading at Sabang.
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Submarine attack near Moulmein at 54,55

Japanese Ships
AKE Mansyu Maru, Torpedo hits 1, on fire

Allied Ships
SS S-39

AKE Mansyu Maru is sighted by SS S-39
SS S-39 launches 2 torpedoes at AKE Mansyu Maru

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Submarine attack near Dili at 71,119

Japanese Ships
AR Kashira, Torpedo hits 1

Allied Ships
SS Sargo

AR Kashira is sighted by SS Sargo
SS Sargo launches 4 torpedoes at AR Kashira


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ASW attack near Sabang at 44,70

Japanese Ships
SS I-30, hits 8 -This sub got a supply xAK yesterday.
Allied Ships
SC-709

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Night Naval bombardment of Sabang at 44,70

Allied Ships
BB California
BB Pennsylvania
BB West Virginia
BB Maryland
DD Stuart
DD Aylwin
DD Dewey
DD Conyngham
DD Frazier

Runway hits 1 - Non-Nuclear bombardment today.

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Pre-Invasion action off Sabang (44,70)

18 Coastal gun shots fired in defense.

Allied Ships
CA Chester
DD Crosby
AP President Polk
CVE Copahee

Japanese ground losses:
133 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 14 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled

Allied ground losses:
7 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

CA Chester firing at Imperial Guards Division
DD Crosby firing at 10th Garrison Unit
DD Crosby fired at enemy troops
Defensive Guns fire at approaching troops in landing craft at 5,000 yards
Defensive Guns fire at approaching troops in landing craft at 2,000 yards

Again, the first of many amphbious unloadings...

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Amphibious Assault at Sabang (44,70)

TF 30 troops unloading over beach at Sabang, 44,70

Allied ground losses:
391 casualties reported
Squads: 2 destroyed, 66 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 111 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 67 (0 destroyed, 67 disabled)
Vehicles lost 126 (0 destroyed, 126 disabled)

12 troops of a USMC Rifle Squad lost overboard during unload of 1st Marine Div /3
12 troops of a USMC Rifle Squad accidentally lost during unload of 1st Marine Div /5

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Sub attack near Rossel Island at 107,136

Japanese Ships
AO Toei Maru
CL Kiso
TB Kamo
E Shimushu
DMS W-1
AO Ubokuto Maru
AO Shinkoku Maru
AO Tsurumi
AO Shiriya
AO Shiretoko
AO Iro
AO Erimo
DD Nokaze
DD Shiokaze
TB Omodoka

Allied Ships
SS S-23

Wow, where this convoy is, there was the KB (at least until a couple of days ago)

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Morning Air attack on Port Blair , at 46,58

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid spotted at 30 NM, estimated altitude 19,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 10 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-44-IIa Tojo x 8

Allied aircraft
Liberator II x 6
B-24D Liberator x 3

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-44-IIa Tojo: 1 destroyed on ground

Allied aircraft losses
Liberator II: 1 damaged
B-24D Liberator: 1 damaged

Runway hits 2

Aircraft Attacking:
6 x Liberator II bombing from 15000 feet
Airfield Attack: 8 x 500 lb GP Bomb
3 x B-24D Liberator bombing from 15000 feet
Port Attack: 10 x 500 lb GP Bomb

CAP engaged:
77th Sentai Det B with Ki-44-IIa Tojo (1 airborne, 4 on standby, 3 scrambling)
1 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 21000 , scrambling fighters to 21000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 28 minutes

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Morning Air attack on Port Blair , at 46,58

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid spotted at 9 NM, estimated altitude 18,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 3 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-44-IIa Tojo x 3

Allied aircraft
B-24D Liberator x 8

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
B-24D Liberator: 2 damaged

Japanese Ships
BB Mutsu, Bomb hits 2, heavy damage - She must be critically damaged to be here, on the front lines, rather than at Georgetown or Singapore. How much pressure will John feel to save this ship now that she's well and truly cut off?

Aircraft Attacking:
8 x B-24D Liberator bombing from 15000 feet
Port Attack: 10 x 500 lb GP Bomb

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Morning Air attack on 16th Division, at 57,46 , near Magwe

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid spotted at 19 NM, estimated altitude 11,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 5 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-44-IIa Tojo x 4

Allied aircraft
B-25C Mitchell x 36

No Japanese losses

No Allied losses

Japanese ground losses:
320 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 20 disabled
Non Combat: 2 destroyed, 13 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Guns lost 15 (1 destroyed, 14 disabled)
Vehicles lost 12 (1 destroyed, 11 disabled)

The Allies are trying to keep up some of the pressure in Burma.
12 x B-25C Mitchell bombing from 5000 feet
Ground Attack: 6 x 500 lb GP Bomb
12 x B-25C Mitchell bombing from 5000 feet
Ground Attack: 6 x 500 lb GP Bomb
3 x B-25C Mitchell bombing from 5000 feet
Ground Attack: 6 x 500 lb GP Bomb
6 x B-25C Mitchell bombing from 5000 feet
Ground Attack: 6 x 500 lb GP Bomb
3 x B-25C Mitchell bombing from 5000 feet
Ground Attack: 6 x 500 lb GP Bomb

CAP engaged:
50th Sentai with Ki-44-IIa Tojo (4 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
(4 plane(s) diverted to support CAP in hex.)
4 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 35000
Raid is overhead

Also attacking 33rd Division ...
Also attacking 2nd Tank Division ...
Also attacking 8th RF Gun Battalion ...
Also attacking 2nd Tank Division ...
Also attacking 33rd Division ...
Also attacking 16th Division ...
Also attacking 33rd Division ...
Also attacking 2nd Tank Division ...
Also attacking 16th Division ...
Also attacking 33rd Division ...


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Morning Air attack on 33rd Division, at 57,46 , near Magwe

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid spotted at 42 NM, estimated altitude 9,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 12 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-44-IIa Tojo x 4

Allied aircraft
A-20A1 Havoc x 6
B-25C Mitchell x 9

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
A-20A1 Havoc: 1 damaged
A-20A1 Havoc: 1 destroyed by flak
B-25C Mitchell: 3 damaged

Japanese ground losses:
145 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 6 disabled
Non Combat: 2 destroyed, 4 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Guns lost 4 (1 destroyed, 3 disabled)

Aircraft Attacking:
9 x B-25C Mitchell bombing from 5000 feet
Ground Attack: 6 x 500 lb GP Bomb
6 x A-20A1 Havoc bombing and strafing from low level
Ground Attack: 4 x 500 lb GP Bomb


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Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Medan at 46,76 - First major strike by USN carriers

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid spotted at 17 NM, estimated altitude 14,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 6 minutes

Allied aircraft
F4F-4 Wildcat x 47
SBD-3 Dauntless x 15
TBF-1 Avenger x 15

No Allied losses

Japanese Ships
PC Kaya, Bomb hits 2, and is sunk
TK Syoyo Maru, Bomb hits 6, heavy fires, heavy damage
TK San Pedro Maru, Bomb hits 3, Torpedo hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage

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Afternoon Air attack on Sabang , at 44,70 - The navies fly again to help with the campaign vs. Sabang.

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid spotted at 19 NM, estimated altitude 15,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 7 minutes

Allied aircraft
Swordfish I x 12
F2A-3 Buffalo x 7
F4F-3A Wildcat x 11
F4F-4 Wildcat x 33
SBD-3 Dauntless x 93
TBF-1 Avenger x 58

No Allied losses

Japanese ground losses:
170 casualties reported
Squads: 2 destroyed, 9 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 8 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 2 disabled

Airbase hits 2
Runway hits 3


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ASW attack near Sabang at 44,70

Japanese Ships
SS I-30, hits 5, heavy damage

Allied Ships
DD Napier

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Amphibious Assault at Siberoet (42,85) - Engineers only - infantry on the way.
TF 392 troops unloading over beach at Siberoet, 42,85

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Amphibious Assault at Nias (42,79) - Same here.
TF 393 troops unloading over beach at Nias, 42,79

Allied ground losses:
15 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 3 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled



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Amphibious Assault at Sinabang (42,76) - Same here.
TF 483 troops unloading over beach at Sinabang, 42,76

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Amphibious Assault at Nias (42,79) - Same here.

TF 487 troops unloading over beach at Nias, 42,79

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Ground combat at Sabang (44,70)

Allied Shock attack

Attacking force 3025 troops, 238 guns, 66 vehicles, Assault Value = 763

Defending force 3889 troops, 32 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 126

Allied adjusted assault: 146

Japanese adjusted defense: 28

Allied assault odds: 5 to 1 (fort level 3)

Allied forces CAPTURE Sabang !!!

Combat modifiers
Defender: leaders(+), disruption(-), preparation(-), experience(-)
Attacker: shock(+)

Japanese ground losses:
1780 casualties reported
Squads: 59 destroyed, 48 disabled
Non Combat: 33 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 3 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 13 (10 destroyed, 3 disabled)
Units retreated 2

Allied ground losses:
42 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 2 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled

Defeated Japanese Units Retreating!

Assaulting units:
762nd Tank Battalion
763rd Tank Bn /2
102nd Combat Engineer Regiment
27th Infantry Division
2nd USMC Tank Battalion
1st Marine Div /4
18th British Div /6
178th USAAF Base Force
175th USAAF Base Force /1
804th Engineer Aviation Battalion
15th USN SeaBees /1
64th Cst AA Rgt /2
221st USN Base Force
1393rd Const Rgt /3
198th FA Bn /1
Southwest Pacific /2

Defending units:
10th Garrison Unit
Imperial Guards Div /1

This is the best case scenario for the Allies. Now the engineers can get the airfield up and running; PBYs soon to come; land-based fighters (especially P-40K) will come soon from Assam; AE/AKE/AD can disband into port; and the troops can begin rolling down the coast (while others recover prep for possible moves on Malaya).

[pws1225]

I've followed both Dan's and John's AARs since the game started. I don't recall any posts in John's AAR that would represent unintentional OpSec violations on the part of those posting comments. I'd also like to think that John is the kind of guy that, if he received an intentional breach via PM (a la Nemo's game from a couple of years back), he would let Dan know so that a satisfactory solution could be worked out.

[JohnDillworth]

Wow. The bottom line is you managed to put 763 AV onto a defended potion with 3 forts and take it with you opponent having about 3-4 days notice. Nicely done. It's up to the engineers to get this up and running. This will be a prime sweep/bomber target. Safe to assume that the rest of that Imperial Guards unit will now be airlifted in the next most vulnerable base

[paullus99]

The only reason I would even think about mentioning it, is John "uncanny" ability to guess, with 100% accuracy (almost to the exact island & timeframe for landing) where CR was going to be heading in the New Guinea area....again, could be just dumb luck & I hope that is what it is...

CR - I would recommend keeping your plans under tight wraps (in the operational details), just to be on the safe side.

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: paullus99

CR - I've been wanting to articulate this for a while, but is eerie how John seems to be able to guess "exactly" where his opponents are going to attack, in instances where those attacks are pre-posted in the forums.....not saying anything, but his "intelligence" seems to be almost "MAGIC" like in its overall accuracy.

And the fact that this attack, not telegraphed in the forums, catching him completely off-guard and out of position.

I'm not cast aspersions - but the circumstantial evidence is pretty heavy in favor of some kind of intelligence leak, somewhere.

Yes you are saying something and yes you are casting aspersions! I caution you against this unless you have hard evidence to the fact. This is a dangerous tact you are embarking on. I have seen nothing in John's behavior or in his posts over the past five years to suggest that there is any possibility of this. Please reconsider what you have said.

Canoe has a history of Aleutian campaigning and NG was an obvious deduction. It is reasonable to expect John to be wary in both theaters. I think the Sabang surprise comes as a result of John's tunnel vision. Sometimes we tend to act on what we want and expect the enemy to do and ignore the other possibilities.

[pws1225]

You were right CR. Distruption and fatique didn't seem to be a big factor. And with all those engineers on the beach, you should get the airfield repaired vary quickly.

[Canoerebel]

I hope I've made it clear that I don't now and have never suspected intentional OpSec violations. Unentinentional and subliminal things are certainly possible in any AAR. I'm not saying any occurred or didn't occur, but the mere possibility that one might happen going forward is what led me to craft the ruse in my AAR. I think from now on I just won't reveal detailed plans.

[Canoerebel]

The Allies shock attack at Sabang was carried out by 18th UK Div. alone (about 150 AV, I think). None of the other Allied units were ashore during yesterday's orders phase, so none of them could participate in today's attack as they were coming ashore.

Another job high on the priority list: Lots of Allied minelayer will drop their loads at Sabang. (But I'll keep some in reserve for possible mischief elsewhere.)

[paullus99]

I've been a follower of many AARs & have said my peace. I appreciate CR's ability to articulate his own positions as to the game and its progress.

I don't believe I articulated an opinion that hasn't been shared by some here, but it isn't my game to play - so I'll let it go & not mention it again.

[pws1225]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I hope I've made it clear that I don't now and have never suspected intentional OpSec violations. Unentinentional and subliminal things are certainly possible in any AAR. I'm not saying any occurred or didn't occur, but the mere possibility that one might happen going forward is what led me to craft the ruse in my AAR. I think from now on I just won't reveal detailed plans.

I've enjoyed watching you craft your operations to date. However, I must admit, that a surprise invasion (a la Operation Des Wallace) is quite entertaining too. It's sort of like a good magic show: how did he do that?

[JohnDillworth]

This will all find it's own level. I think huge operational surprises should probably be kept under wraps. GreyJoy set the precedent for this. No that this is an operation in progress I suspect the conversation might be a little more open. Specific tactics and objective can be suggested and discussed amongst the peanut gallery (thats us)and the guy sending the turn can take from it what he likes. As for the next grand strategic move who amongst us is not considering the possibilities? If this invasion is successful in the long term it opens up a world of possibilities all over the map next year.

[Canoerebel]

Significant odds and ends as I plan the next turn:

1. Elements of Marine CD units are ashore at undefended Siberoet and Nias, so those to islands should fall tomorrow.

2. I think single APDs each carrying elements of a Raider battalion will hit Sibolga and Padang tomorrow. No idea what opposition is there, but I would think these two would have "high priority airlift" orders from John.

3. In an example of "who knows what will go wrong" to toy with plans, 27th USA Div., which is COMBAT LOADED on an amphibious TF, somehow is coming ashore in strat mode! That will slow down deployment of that unit for a few days!

4. I'm planning to halt unloading of a couple hundred AV, if I can find them (and I think I can) to move immediately on Langsa. This will put some important ships in harm's way, but success would shave off six days or so from the process of rolling down the coast.

5. The American carriers will move south to cover the landings on Sibolga.

6. I'm uncertain about Padang yet - depends on how quickly Sibolga falls, how strong Padang is garrisoned (I probably only have 100 AV for that outpost), and whether things get to the point where I think the KB could pop up.

7. At this point, all systems go for a move on Malaya. 32nd Infantry Div., which might be the backbone, is aboard transports (strat loaded) 18 hexes from Sabang. I'd like to unload it and reload it amphibious. In the the meantime, the Allies will also try to find a undefended port or two to invade in two or three turns to get things moving even more quickly.

[witpqs]

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Night Naval bombardment of Sabang at 44,70

Allied Ships
BB California
BB Pennsylvania
BB West Virginia
BB Maryland
DD Stuart
DD Aylwin
DD Dewey
DD Conyngham
DD Frazier

Runway hits 1 - Non-Nuclear bombardment today.

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Unless they reloaded someplace then they were only shooting .50 cal!

[pws1225]

7. At this point, all systems go for a move on Malaya. 32nd Infantry Div., which might be the backbone, is aboard transports (strat loaded) 18 hexes from Sabang. I'd like to unload it and reload it amphibious. In the the meantime, the Allies will also try to find a undefended port or two to invade in two or three turns to get things moving even more quickly.

A little quick arithmetic says 2 days to Sabang (at best), 1 day to unload (at best), 3 days to change to combat mode, 1 day to reload aboard ship, 1 day to cross over to Malaya. That's 8 days in total. Do you think you have that much time before John shows up with all his toys?

[JohnDillworth]

Japanese Ships
AO Toei Maru
CL Kiso
TB Kamo
E Shimushu
DMS W-1
AO Ubokuto Maru
AO Shinkoku Maru
AO Tsurumi
AO Shiriya
AO Shiretoko
AO Iro
AO Erimo
DD Nokaze
DD Shiokaze
TB Omodoka

Hmmmmm, If John has to come, he has to bring his AO's, his AO's are not that fast and you know which way they are coming. If you could go into the shadows and appear behind his AO's you might be able to take his loitering ability away for a long, long time. Even if you can't do a CV ambush a couple of the Fletcher raiding groups might cause problems if they can go undetected. just an evil thought

[Canoerebel]

I want to transfer a second small fighter squadron to CVE Copahee, which will still have less than the 28 limit. Is there any reason a CVE can't handle two squadrons (I'm 99.5% sure the answer is "it's fine", but wanted to check).

[Chickenboy]

It's fine.

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

It's fine.

Most late war CVEs have both a fighter and torpedo bomber squadron. Just smaller.

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
3. In an example of "who knows what will go wrong" to toy with plans, 27th USA Div., which is COMBAT LOADED on an amphibious TF, somehow is coming ashore in strat mode! That will slow down deployment of that unit for a few days!

Hmm, I had that happen one time since we upgraded to the BETA. I wrote it off as me being an idiot and forgetting to change it to "Combat mode" before loading. Perhaps I wasn´t...

And now that I think of it. Is it even possible to load "strat mode" units onto amphibs TFs?

[Canoerebel]

John got called into work, so next turn won't be for a few hours.

Orders for a couple of important moves for next turn:

1. 1st Marine Div. to stop unloading. Transports to weight anchor and proceed full speed to Langsa for amphibious operations. Cover provided by CVE Copahee and CA New Orleans TF.

2. The main Allied carrier fleet to move south and take position just NW of Sibolga, to cover landings there (in two days) and the ongoing landings at the nearby islands. This position is also relatively close to Langsa and Medan, which should help prevent enemy TFs from landing reinforcements. The carriers will rendezvous with the slow BB TFs.

3. The fast TF to move to Phuket and back to prevent enemy reinforcements by sea.

4. Sabang and its host of shipping won't have any air cover for a turn or two. Worth the risk? I hope so.

5. Sabang airfield should be operational day after tomorrow.

6. I tried to reload some combat troops to move tonight on Phuket and a nearby island, but the TFs won't accept embarkation. I think they ships need another day of unloading. Hopefully, the first landings on Malaya will take place in two days.

7. Indian troops are enroute - the lead a brigade that departed Colombo three days ago. This could be garrison troops or perhaps reinforcements to commit to a new invasion. More Indian troops to follow. 1500 PP in the bank - enough to buy an Indian division at Chittagong, where transports are ready to carry the unit forward. This is probably a worthwhile expenditure given the sitaution - though enemy carriers will arrive long before this unit can, so I'm not positive yet (I have a few days to decide while the ships arrive from Calcutta).