Wild Sheep Chase - obvert (J) vs JocMeister (A)

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Captain Cruft

I wouldn't get too excited about the Shinden. It doesn't do any better against the P-47N or P-51H than anything else.

The Karyu is the thing you need ...

ORIGINAL: setloz

I'm very curious about how the Shinden will fare against P47s. Fingers crossed for your factory not getting destroyed.

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

I'd heard a few reports of the Shinden in combat that reflect this opinion as well. However, don't the 4x30mm (high gun value) of the Shinden shred Allied heavy bombers? As a fighter v. fighter it seems so-so. As an anti-bomber platform it seems terribly vicious. At least on paper.

As with many of the other fighters in the war I've found them useful for something. The Shinden can't be worse than the planes I'm using now, and should give a title extra for the top layer of CAP mixed with Frank 'r' and J2M5. The Ki-83 is a great sweeper and decent in defense. I bet the 30mm are only okay against fighters but yeah, might do some damage with bombers. I wish I could turn off the ramming option for this plane and a few others and leave it to the Oscars and zeros to do that.

The Karyu sadly suffered from the supply shortage and had to have it's two main factories stalled before RnD was complete and working. So the RnD is only 20 a month. It might be November before it would some, at around 40-50 a month, but I doubt this game will be going by then.

[poodlebrain]

ORIGINAL: crsutton

Sort of been in and out of this AAR with little or no comment for a good while but have enjoyed the discussion about supply. Now that we have seen a few games go "long" (Ark and I made it to 8/1/45) our collective understanding of the game has changed. In the end, for Japan, it does all come down to supply and fuel. And the burden is on the Japanese player to continually look for economy in force. This is actually good in my mind as the designers have gotten something right in that to really "feel" like a Japanese player you need to be sweating resources from day one.

My own game and the discussions here have taught me a lot. For one I just do not fear the incredible Japanese rampages that took place early on in my last game. Like you say it all comes at a price. And, unlike some of my fellow posters here, I have come away with the exact opposite opinion of how to play the Allies. That is, there is no need to Sir Robin and wait for the inevitable flood of material but the best Allied course is to fight everywhere that it is feasible in 1942 (meaning not stupid) because as you point out so well, every fight drains the Japanese player's ability to do something else.

The game is so simple. It is all about resources. Supply and fuel are Japan's currency. Any way you can figure out to make the Japanese player spend extra currency is a viable path to victory.

I don't know if the game should be militarily "winnable" for the Japanese player. However there should be some significant VP adjustments for late game achievements. And if the Allies are not on the home islands in strength by some time in late 1945, then it should be considered a total victory for the Japanese player. And I personally have always thought that auto-victory should never be an option. Under no circumstances would there have been some sort of auto-victory for Japan in real life.

Sometimes it is hard to separate the war from the game. The war is not winnable for the Japanese by any conventional standard without gross incompetence by the Allied player(s), but the game is winnable based on objective criteria determined within the game rules. Obvert will lose the war, as is inevitable. However, he has not lost the game just yet, and it is possible for him to avoid losing the game.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: crsutton

Sort of been in and out of this AAR with little or no comment for a good while but have enjoyed the discussion about supply. Now that we have seen a few games go "long" (Ark and I made it to 8/1/45) our collective understanding of the game has changed. In the end, for Japan, it does all come down to supply and fuel. And the burden is on the Japanese player to continually look for economy in force. This is actually good in my mind as the designers have gotten something right in that to really "feel" like a Japanese player you need to be sweating resources from day one.

Yep. I'd have a slightly different end game if I'd known what I know now in 42. It probably wouldn't have changed very much of the speed of the Allied approach other and in fact might have slowed it more effectively.

My own game and the discussions here have taught me a lot. For one I just do not fear the incredible Japanese rampages that took place early on in my last game. Like you say it all comes at a price. And, unlike some of my fellow posters here, I have come away with the exact opposite opinion of how to play the Allies. That is, there is no need to Sir Robin and wait for the inevitable flood of material but the best Allied course is to fight everywhere that it is feasible in 1942 (meaning not stupid) because as you point out so well, every fight drains the Japanese player's ability to do something else.

Knowing that you really need to pick your battles changes everything. The idea of forcibly attiring Allied air power even has dire consequences in replacement aircraft supply use, and shouldn't really be as much of a problem as people make it out to be unless they try to do something slightly too early.

You really start to realize after playing through this game why the war schedule went as it did. We're nearing VJ Day and although I'm still having fun, trying to fight back, I certainly see the light at the end of the tunnel now.

The game is so simple. It is all about resources. Supply and fuel are Japan's currency. Any way you can figure out to make the Japanese player spend extra currency is a viable path to victory.

I don't know if the game should be militarily "winnable" for the Japanese player. However there should be some significant VP adjustments for late game achievements. And if the Allies are not on the home islands in strength by some time in late 1945, then it should be considered a total victory for the Japanese player. And I personally have always thought that auto-victory should never be an option. Under no circumstances would there have been some sort of auto-victory for Japan in real life.

The VP scale for ships vs that for aircraft is a bit off I think, especially late. It doesn't take much to lose 500-100 planes in a day now, and the option to not use them is not really a consideration. But when a CVE is only worth 87 points, and I lose 60+ planes in the search phase, or when the Allies hit the kasha, worth something like 20 points, but lose 35-40 planes (VPs) doing so, something is off there. I agree the Japanese shouldn't suddenly be winning because they sink some CVs and the Allies still reach their strategic goals, but we all know losing 20 CVEs in the war would have been a disaster of unprecedented consequence.

[obvert]

The night begins with some more mine-clearing, then the fun stuff. Es make it in ahead of the others and hit a few PT boats.

[obvert]

This who gave me the shivers! The PTs went after the Yamatos here but didn't get a hit and lost a few.

[obvert]

This engagement especially got tense after on e of the escorts was lost to a mine, and the range got to 3k. I thought for sure with the low moon at least one BB would be hit, but it didn't happen.

[obvert]

There must have been ten different engagements with PTs, but interestingly most of the attempted to disengage immediately. Out of good high aggression commanders?

[obvert]

Eventually the BBs made it through, but the bombardments were just decent. They didn't get quite as many planes as I'd hoped. Did Jocke move some out?

[font="Trebuchet MS"]--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Naval bombardment of Moppo at 100,54

Allied aircraft
no flights

Allied aircraft losses
PBY-5 Catalina: 12 damaged
PBY-5 Catalina: 1 destroyed on ground
P-47D25 Thunderbolt: 4 damaged
P-47D25 Thunderbolt: 1 destroyed on ground
PBM-3D Mariner: 3 damaged
PBM-3D Mariner: 1 destroyed on ground

Japanese Ships
BB Hyuga
BB Ise
BB Fuso
BB Mutsu

Allied ground losses:
762 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 29 destroyed, 47 disabled
Engineers: 60 destroyed, 37 disabled
Guns lost 5 (2 destroyed, 3 disabled)
Vehicles lost 40 (19 destroyed, 21 disabled)

Manpower hits 2
Fires 2792 [X(]
Airbase hits 12
Airbase supply hits 1
Runway hits 36
Port hits 1
Port supply hits 1

BB Hyuga firing at Moppo
E13A1b Jake acting as spotter for BB Ise
BB Ise firing at Moppo
BB Fuso firing at Moppo
BB Mutsu firing at Moppo

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Night Naval bombardment of Moppo at 100,54

Allied aircraft
no flights

Allied aircraft losses
PBY-5 Catalina: 1 damaged
PBY-5 Catalina: 1 destroyed on ground
PBM-3D Mariner: 5 damaged
PBM-3D Mariner: 1 destroyed on ground
P-47D25 Thunderbolt: 1 damaged
P-47N Thunderbolt: 1 damaged
P-47N Thunderbolt: 1 destroyed on ground

Japanese Ships
BB Musashi
BB Yamato

Allied ground losses:
318 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 7 destroyed, 4 disabled
Engineers: 25 destroyed, 3 disabled
Guns lost 5 (4 destroyed, 1 disabled)
Vehicles lost 6 (5 destroyed, 1 disabled)

Manpower hits 1
Fires 5571
Airbase hits 3
Airbase supply hits 2
Runway hits 20
Port hits 2
Port fuel hits 1

BB Musashi firing at Moppo
BB Yamato firing at Moppo [/font]

[obvert]

The PTs got their revenge by finishing off DD Take. No air strikes in the day from the CVs though, which had moved to the South.

[obvert]

In our only real offensive actions of the day I decided to pick around the edges of the CAP as Jocke has been doing and it worked pretty well! Only one group flying CAP at least to one hex out.
[font="Trebuchet MS"]
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Morning Air attack on 3rd Marine Division, at 101,54 , near Moppo

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid spotted at 41 NM, estimated altitude 32,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 10 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-83 x 48

Allied aircraft
F4U-1D Corsair x 20

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-83: 2 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
F4U-1D Corsair: 7 destroyed

Aircraft Attacking:
39 x Ki-83 sweeping at 32000 feet

CAP engaged:
VF-14 with F4U-1D Corsair (0 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
(20 plane(s) diverted to support CAP in hex.)
0 plane(s) not yet engaged, 20 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 20000
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 1 minutes
[/font]

[obvert]

Allied air power crushes the troops at Saisho To. Their AV in the bombardment today was at 25, down from 170AV before the Allies invaded only two days ago.

The base will fall easily tomorrow.

[Sangeli]

ORIGINAL: poodlebrain
Sometimes it is hard to separate the war from the game. The war is not winnable for the Japanese by any conventional standard without gross incompetence by the Allied player(s), but the game is winnable based on objective criteria determined within the game rules. Obvert will lose the war, as is inevitable. However, he has not lost the game just yet, and it is possible for him to avoid losing the game.

In real life the Japanese did not think they could win in the sense that in a purely military duel they would come out on top. Rather, they hoped that with rapid decisive victories they could break the American resolve to fight. When you play this game as a PBEM you are not just playing against the Japanese or Allies. You are also playing against another real player. When Allied players "lose" against a Japanese player 9/10 it's because they lose the desire to fight. Perhaps they suffered so many casualties that it would take years to be able to go on the offensive (both in game time and real life time) and decide that it isn't worth it. However, players tend to see an Allied abdication not as something less than a full victory. But isn't that sort of abdication is EXACTLY the sort of victory the Japanese aimed to achieve? So why do we say that the war is not winnable for the Japanese "by conventional standards" when standard the Japanese used for victory was breaking the resolve of the Americans to fight? When an Allied player quits the game we should look at that as if the Allies are simply suing for peace. I understand that VP count and auto-victory is supposed to capture this sort of capitulation but I see that as being indirect and largely arbitrary compared to the very real phenomenon of breaking another players resolve to fight. So I think people need to change their concept of what it means to "win the war" as more than simply the complete destruction of the enemy because the vast majority of wars are not fought to the bitter end. They are fought until one side decides they don't want to fight anymore.

I guess in this game it may not be as relevant but if Obvert can get to the point where JocMeister does not want to continue playing this game then all of us should consider that as winning the war just the same as if Japan had won the war IRL by forcing the Allies to sue for peace.

[obvert]

[font="Times New Roman"]8 June 1945[/font]
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

[font="Microsoft Sans Serif"]SUBS: [/font] Both injured sub make it back to nagasaki and will repair for the next week. the Grunion hits a PB moving toward Moppo.

[font="Microsoft Sans Serif"]KOREA: [/font] The retreat to Gunzan is unchallenged so far. Most air units are back in Fusan to fix planes before rebasing to he HI. About 4-5 groups are still flying a decent CAP over the base, which will remain.

[font="Microsoft Sans Serif"]HOME ISLANDS: [/font] Not much new. Fires finally go out at Osaka but I forgot to look at final damage. A few sweeps hit mostly empty air, but some zeros get caught up and I lose five.

[font="Microsoft Sans Serif"]CHINA: [/font] The forces at Changsha keep getting nailed by 2Es, and the troops at Tsuyung finally look to be cracking. The Allies got a 1:1, but this area means little now as the Chinese have been freed and have supply.

[font="Trebuchet MS"]--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR June 8, 45
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TF 77 encounters mine field at Shimonoseki (104,57)

Japanese Ships
AMc Ma 4
AMc Banshu Maru #56, Mine hits 1, heavy damage

72 mines cleared

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Sub attack near Moppo at 100,55

Japanese Ships
PB Seikyo Maru, Torpedo hits 2, on fire, heavy damage
PB Kogyoku Maru
PB Ikuta Maru
PB Manyo Maru
PB Konsan Maru

Allied Ships
SS Grunion

SS Grunion launches 2 torpedoes at PB Seikyo Maru
PB Manyo Maru fails to find sub and abandons search
Escort abandons search for sub

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Night Time Surface Combat, near Moppo at 100,54, Range 2,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
E No.18
E No.32
E No.118, Shell hits 2
E No.132

Allied Ships
PT-316
PT-317
PT-318
PT-319
PT-320, Shell hits 1
PT-321
PT-322
PT-323, Shell hits 1, and is sunk

Reduced sighting due to 3% moonlight
Maximum visibility in Partly Cloudy Conditions and 3% moonlight: 2,000 yards

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Night Time Surface Combat, near Moppo at 100,54, Range 30,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
BB Mutsu
BB Fuso
BB Ise
BB Hyuga
DD Take
DD Hinoki
DD Kaya
DD Nara

Allied Ships
PT-175
PT-176
PT-177
PT-178
PT-250
PT-255
PT-256
PT-258

Reduced sighting due to 3% moonlight
Maximum visibility in Partly Cloudy Conditions and 3% moonlight: 2,000 yards
CONTACT: Allies radar detects Japanese task force at 6,000 yards
Allied TF attempts to evade combat
Range increases to 11,000 yards...

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TF 6 encounters mine field at Moppo (100,54)

Japanese Ships
DD Take, Mine hits 1, heavy damage

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Night Time Surface Combat, near Moppo at 100,54, Range 4,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
BB Yamato
BB Musashi
DD Tsubaki
DD Keyaki
DD Yanagi
DD Odake
DD Kaba

Allied Ships
PT-26
PT-27, Shell hits 1, and is sunk
PT-114, Shell hits 1, and is sunk
PT-117
PT-118
PT-120, Shell hits 1, and is sunk

Reduced sighting due to 3% moonlight
Maximum visibility in Partly Cloudy Conditions and 3% moonlight: 2,000 yards

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Night Time Surface Combat, near Moppo at 100,54, Range 30,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
BB Mutsu
BB Fuso
BB Ise
BB Hyuga
DD Hinoki
DD Kaya

Allied Ships
PT-28
PT-29
PT-30
PT-42
PT-60
PT-113

Reduced sighting due to 0% moonlight
Maximum visibility in Partly Cloudy Conditions and 0% moonlight: 2,000 yards
CONTACT: Japanese radar detects Allied task force at 6,000 yards
Allied TF attempts to evade combat

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Time Surface Combat, near Moppo at 100,54, Range 4,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
BB Mutsu
BB Fuso
BB Ise
BB Hyuga
DD Hinoki
DD Kaya

Allied Ships
PT-349
PT-350
PT-351
PT-352, Shell hits 1, and is sunk
PT-359
PT-360

Reduced sighting due to 0% moonlight
Maximum visibility in Partly Cloudy Conditions and 0% moonlight: 2,000 yards

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Night Time Surface Combat, near Moppo at 100,54, Range 30,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
BB Mutsu
BB Fuso
BB Ise
BB Hyuga
DD Hinoki
DD Kaya

Allied Ships
PT-260
PT-261
PT-324
PT-325
PT-326
PT-327
PT-363
PT-364

Reduced sighting due to 0% moonlight
Maximum visibility in Partly Cloudy Conditions and 0% moonlight: 2,000 yards
CONTACT: Allies radar detects Japanese task force at 3,000 yards
Allied TF attempts to evade combat This happened about three more times as well.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ASW attack near Moppo at 100,54

Japanese Ships
DD Nara

Allied Ships
SS Angler, hits 8

SS Angler is sighted by escort
Angler bottoming out ....
DD Nara attacking submerged sub ....
Escort abandons search for sub

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TF 77 encounters mine field at Shimonoseki (104,57)

Japanese Ships
AMc Ma 4

36 mines cleared

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Day Time Surface Combat, near Moppo at 100,54, Range 16,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
DD Take, and is sunk
DD Nara

Allied Ships
PT-316
PT-317
PT-318
PT-319
PT-320
PT-321
PT-322

Maximum visibility in Partly Cloudy Conditions: 24,000 yards

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Morning Air attack on Kumamoto , at 102,59

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid detected at 44 NM, estimated altitude 37,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 12 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5b Zero x 10

Allied aircraft
P-47D25 Thunderbolt x 18

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M5b Zero: 5 destroyed

No Allied losses

Aircraft Attacking:
15 x P-47D25 Thunderbolt sweeping at 32000 feet

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Morning Air attack on 11th Ind.Mixed Regiment, at 99,55 (Saishu To)

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid spotted at 20 NM, estimated altitude 10,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 6 minutes

Allied aircraft
Liberator B.VI x 26
Liberator GR.VI x 16
B-24J Liberator x 3
B-17E Fortress x 5
B-17F Fortress x 5
B-24D Liberator x 3
B-24D1 Liberator x 11
B-24J Liberator x 116
B-25J11 Mitchell x 5
PB4Y-1 Liberator x 9

No Allied losses

Japanese ground losses:
1583 casualties reported[X(]
Squads: 25 destroyed, 85 disabled
Non Combat: 6 destroyed, 150 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 12 disabled
Guns lost 22 (8 destroyed, 14 disabled)

Aircraft Attacking:
6 x PB4Y-1 Liberator bombing from 9000 feet
Ground Attack: 10 x 500 lb GP Bomb

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Ground combat at Tsuyung (68,46)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 43598 troops, 871 guns, 538 vehicles, Assault Value = 943

Defending force 23705 troops, 308 guns, 79 vehicles, Assault Value = 581

Allied engineers reduce fortifications to 1

Allied adjusted assault: 1189

Japanese adjusted defense: 976

Allied assault odds: 1 to 1 (fort level 1)

Allied Assault reduces fortifications to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), forts(+), supply(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
1114 casualties reported
Squads: 3 destroyed, 75 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 10 disabled
Engineers: 2 destroyed, 18 disabled
Vehicles lost 3 (1 destroyed, 2 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
1129 casualties reported
Squads: 16 destroyed, 100 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 29 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 21 disabled
Guns lost 20 (1 destroyed, 19 disabled)

Assaulting units:
23rd Indian Division
25th Indian Division
7th Indian Division
8th New Chinese Corps
104th RAF Base Force
117th RAF Base Force
88th Medium Regiment
2nd West African AA Regiment
3rd West African AA Regiment
4th West African AA Regiment
23rd AA Bde
56th Heavy Regiment
1st Burma Auxiliary AA Regiment
2nd HK&S Heavy AA Regiment

Defending units:
104th Division
37th Division
40th Division
9th Ind.Mixed Brigade
23rd JAAF AF Bn

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Ground combat at 75,49 (near Kweiyang)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 16248 troops, 0 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 676

Defending force 6429 troops, 59 guns, 2 vehicles, Assault Value = 242

Allied adjusted assault: 606

Japanese adjusted defense: 391

Allied assault odds: 1 to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(+), fatigue(-), experience(-)
supply(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
488 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 48 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Guns lost 6 (1 destroyed, 5 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
603 casualties reported
Squads: 9 destroyed, 50 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 13 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Assaulting units:
34th Separate Brigade
79th Chinese Corps
81st Chinese Corps
16th Construction Regiment

Defending units:
Ankei SNLF
86th Ind.Mixed Brigade
171st Cavalry Regiment

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------[/font]

Reinforcements:

[font="Trebuchet MS"]38th Shinbu-tai arrives at Changchun
50th Army arrives at Hirosaki/Aomori
119th Ind.Mixed Brigade arrives at Nagoya
120th Ind.Mixed Brigade arrives at Nagoya
Chosen JNAF Base Force arrives at Genzan[/font]

Losses:

[font="Trebuchet MS"]Loss of DD Take on Jun 08, 1945 is admitted
Loss of PB Seikyo Maru on Jun 08, 1945 is admitted[/font]

Ships Sunk:

[font="Trebuchet MS"]PT-27 is reported to have been sunk near Moppo on Jun 08, 1945
PT-114 is reported to have been sunk near Moppo on Jun 08, 1945
PT-120 is reported to have been sunk near Moppo on Jun 08, 1945
PT-323 is reported to have been sunk near Moppo on Jun 08, 1945
PT-343 is reported to have been sunk near Moppo on Jun 08, 1945
PT-348 is reported to have been sunk near Moppo on Jun 08, 1945
PT-352 is reported to have been sunk near Moppo on Jun 08, 1945[/font]
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

[font="Trebuchet MS"]This ship means business! I haven't looked recently, but I wonder what the experience levels are for the BBS and other surface ships that have been around since the beginning?[/font]
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

[Lokasenna]

In my experience, PTs try to disengage if they don't have any torpedoes.

I see you converted Hyuga.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

In my experience, PTs try to disengage if they don't have any torpedoes.

I see you converted Hyuga.

That was a mistake! She took a torpedo and was in shipyard, so I thought I'd add the upgrade for better radar and AA. Forgot that was the conversion.

I just got a unit of Rex's a while back so just put those on her. Might do something, right?[:D]

[obvert]

This turn opened with something I was afraid of. more strikes at the last fully functioning Shinden plant. Sucks. Doesn't take much, as the pinpoint accuracy of the B-29 at night manages to knock out all production. I wish it wasn't so easy to take out exactly one plant, but that the damage was spread out a bit, as was reality. Alas, I've made a good run at a competitive air force for most of the game and still have enough pools to fight on as long as supply allows, so it really doesn't matter so much. Just takes some of the unique interest out of playing the endgame. Oh, well.

It also costs about 35 NF for roughly 10-12 B-29 shot down. Not a good ratio.

[obvert]

So about a month more of 3-4 a week night shots at airframe factories would do the trick for the top line 3rd ten fighters.

[obvert]

The Allies also went in the daylight and got a few hits on the Sam factories there. They didn't get sweeps in before the bombers though and again lost about 55-60 4E, both Privateers and B-24s. Some Invaders also came in and about 10-12 of those were she down. So the new CAP distribution does well, but can't stop all of the bombers form getting through.

[obvert]

This is interesting. I'll have to try to get something in there, but not much of low value that's fast enough to do it now.

[obvert]

So this is the last update of game for a while. I might post an actual CR report from Brunei, which would be fun! Flying Royal Brunei Air and have a stop there. Hopefully we'll avoid the ash cloud from the newly erupted volcano on Java on the way.

Heading to OZ to see the lady's family, for only about 9 days total! Short trip, but should be fun.