See you in Tokyo Bay - Apbarog(A) vs Walker(J) DBB-B Scen28

[BBfanboy]

When I was coming back to the Philippines in my game I held Miri and Brunei, so my convoys would go via coastal routing and waypoint along the north coast of Palawan, pass south of Busuanga and up the channel toward Manila. Almost all of this route is shallow water and lots of small bases for coverage by float planes operating with AVDs/AVPs. Might be worth checking whether he is using similar coastal routing.

[apbarog]

We think alike BBfanboy! I have both the northern and southern Palawan route covered. I'm staying out of the coastal hexes, mostly, but there are a couple of deep water hexes that have to be used, and I'm heavily covering them. From the map, you can also see that I've recently mined the coastal hex east of Jesselton. I have no confirmation, yet, that the coastal route is being used, but I'm looking.

I'm not seeing air ASW activity here yet.

[apbarog]

23 Aug 43

Enemy patrol boats start to sweep my mines recently laid northeast of Mindanao.

Sub Perch spots a tanker convoy 3 hexes west of Takao, Formosa. The sub is unable to attack and is not hit by any depth charges.

Near Ternate, I-124 spots CV Victorious and escorts, fires 2 torpedoes at the carrier, and misses with both.

Banjermasin is swept by Corsairs, but no CAP is found. Bombers hit the airfield, and get a Dinah or two. The base is defended by just 2 units, showing just 2700 troops and 15 guns. It's too bad that I'm not ready to hit here immediately. I have a division prepping for this base, but it's almost to Perth just now, coming from Capetown. It will proceed to Waingapoe to reload and be ready to go.

Kukong is bombed by the enemy. Sallys miss the city completely, but Sonias hit the airfield. I'm unable to defend Kukong, with no supply there.

Thunderbolts sweep Manado, finding no CAP. A handful of bombers hit the airfield, but do poorly in the heavy rain. 36 SBDs do fly from the carriers, hitting a lone xAKL at Manado, sinking it.

Troops land at Ternate. Almost all of the Marine Division lands in just the afternoon phase. It will immediately attack, and should take the base. I see just 5 units at Ternate, with 4140 troops, 3 guns, and 2 vehicles. The support unit convoy for Ternate will leave Namlea and head north, hoping to start landing as soon as the base is taken.

There was a curious non-encounter today. 2 US destroyers, with a very good commander, moved to Sorong. During the night, I got the message that the enemy ships were caught at anchor, but then no combat occurred. No idea what happened here. No big deal. Probably just an xAKL there. Walker isn't risking anything at all near the front these days.

Today Manado will be invaded. Allied carriers will stand off 2 hexes from both Manado and Ternate. One fighter squadron will LRCAP Manado. Medium and heavy bombers will hit Manado. A P-38 squadron will sweep Manado.

At Gorontalo, southwest of Manado, I've moved an AVP into the port, and now have Catalinas on naval search, and Coronados on ASW. I've never used the huge Coronados for ASW, so this is an experiment. It has a very long range and a good bomb load. With pilots fairly trained in ASW, they should help. I've set them to range 16 (I think), which means an effective range of 8 for ASW. As the sub attack on Victorious shows, Walker is still using his subs, but doing so near his bases, not mine. Maybe I can start damaging some of them between Celebes and Mindanao, and force him to pull them back further.

[apbarog]

I did forget to mention that I am also invading Sidate, the dot base on Celebes adjacent to Manado. I think that it is unoccupied. It will block any retreat from Manado, and if Manado doesn't fall quickly, would provide me with a reinforcement point for units not prepped for Sidate or Manado. I'm invading with a weak boat support unit, with minimal combat value, but if the base is unoccupied, it will be enough.

[apbarog]

Not a creature was stirring. Not even a Fletcher.

Probably no turns until after Christmas. Merry Christmas to you all.

[Bif1961]

And to all a good night!

[apbarog]

24 Aug 43

More troops and supply unload at Ternate.

Sub Gar spots a big convoy just northeast of Mindanao. Cargo ships and support vessels: AKE, AG and AD.

Manado is bombarded and invaded. Near Manado, RO-109 is sunk by diligent destroyers. 3 different destroyes attacked in the one battle, hitting the sub with 5 depth charges, and then finishing it off on the surface. Bombers hit the airfield and troops. The mandatory enemy bombardment shows that the enemy is too strong for just one division to handle.

In China, Walker is content with bombing undefended Kukong. The airfield is further damaged, but bombs miss the city.

At Ternate, the 2nd Marine Division attacks and easily captures the base. All enemy units evaporate due to attrition after the fight. The Marines immediately prepare to go to Manado and help out there. They will start loading tomorrow, and will land at Sidate and walk to Manado. This will prevent huge disruptions for landing without sufficient prep.

Allied bombers hit enemy troops just north of Akyab. The Allies attack, and find a stiff defense. There won't be a quick breakthrough here.

Ground combat at 55,44 (near Akyab)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 28739 troops, 421 guns, 859 vehicles, Assault Value = 1150

Defending force 25849 troops, 355 guns, 558 vehicles, Assault Value = 771

Allied adjusted assault: 590

Japanese adjusted defense: 1309

Allied assault odds: 1 to 2

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
1294 casualties reported
Squads: 6 destroyed, 111 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 16 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 19 disabled
Guns lost 33 (1 destroyed, 32 disabled)
Vehicles lost 27 (7 destroyed, 20 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
1981 casualties reported
Squads: 13 destroyed, 257 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 33 disabled
Engineers: 2 destroyed, 23 disabled
Guns lost 28 (1 destroyed, 27 disabled)
Vehicles lost 52 (6 destroyed, 46 disabled)

Assaulting units:
45th Indian Brigade
3rd USMC Tank Battalion
641st Towed Tank Destroyer Battalion
255th Armoured Brigade
268th Motorised Brigade
46th Indian Brigade
11th Indian Division
29th British Brigade
2/9th Fld RAA Regiment
XXXIII Indian Corps
85th British AT Gun Regiment

Defending units:
14th Division
1st Tank Division
9th Tank Regiment
29th Ind Engineer Regiment
Imperial Guards/A Division
3rd Medium Field Artillery Regiment
16th AA Regiment
5th Field Construction Battalion
8th RF Gun Battalion
14th Ind.Art.Mortar Battalion
5th Mortar Battalion
15th Army /2

[apbarog]

25 Aug 43

The rest of the troops unload at Manado. Supply continues to unload. Units are overflowing with supply. Cruisers Helena and Concord, and 6 destroyers, bombard at night. I have cruiser task forces rearming at Kendari, and I'm pacing them so that Manado is bombarded every night. I'm working hard at getting more fuel to Kendari.

Over on Borneo, my surprise commando invasion of Sampit does draw Walker's immediate attention. Battleships Kirishima and Hiei, 3 cruisers, and 5 destroyers bombard the base. Troop losses are just 1 squad disabled, but the base does take moderate damage, and every bit of supply is destroyed. Airfield damage may have prevented a second commando unit from flying in. I wanted Sampit to be the new focal point for Walker, and it is. I think his task force was futher north on the Borneo coast yesterday, and I think they originated at Singapore. I didn't see them today, so I don't know where they went to. Not seen at Soerbaja. His bombardment does identify the defenders as the 2nd Marine Raider Battalion.

Sub RO-34 is attacked by DE Encounter, and takes one good depth charge hit and a number of minor flooding messages. The sub is then reported to be attacked by a task force of subchasers, and is probably sunk now.

In the middle of the South China Sea, sub Plunger spots a big xAK task force, and hits xAK Hokuroku Maru with a torpedo. The ship is carrying fuel and is burning. Too far from port to survive.

I'm now using artillery attacks at Manado and Boela daily. Both sides will gain experience from it, but my troops are going to be the ones to survive. The enemy will be destroyed, eventually.

The Marine Division that took Ternate immediately begins to load for a landing at newly taken Sidate, where they will then walk to Manado and push the battle over the edge to victory. All of the support units earmarked for Manado will move to Sidate and help build that base, and move to Manado after it is taken.

Gorontalo, west of Manado, has more support units on the way.

Talud-eilanden, south of Mindanao, got a good recon today, and it appears to be unoccupied. Long ago I moved some very long range transports from India to Australia. B-24 variants I believe. There are 2 units of them, but only about 12 planes. They moved to Dili and will drop a part of a big Indian para unit that is fully prepped for Talud-eilanded. A task force at Dili will load the rest of the unit, to be shipped to the island. I want this island to be Walker's focus near Mindanao. He's prepping Mindanao hard, and this island is very close to Mindanao. It will have his attention. My plans don't include going to Mindanao directly, though.

There are 2 divisions currently at Kendari. One is being pulled out and sent back to Darwin. Overstacking issues. The division could use some rest and recovery time, and isn't needed until Mindanao.

I currently have 2 divisions at Boela. One is at about 70% strength, the other is at about 40%. Lots of disabled squads. I am going to pull the weaker division back to Australia and have it recover, keeping its preparation for Boela. They shall return.

Walker won't be able to do a turn on New Year's Eve, so I'm working the turn slowly tonight and tomorrow. He'll have it waiting for him on Sunday.

[apbarog]

One other note. I have a task force at Mataram, headed to Denpassar. It holds fragments of several units at Denpassar, and includes vehicles. These units weren't able to completely unload when I invaded, and they went to Waingapoe and helped build and support that base. I've moved the ships to Mataram, and now they will go to Denpassar. I've moved extra fighters to Denpassar, and I'm using LRCAP from Mataram to cover the unloading. I moved a single minesweeper to the tip of Java. There's still mines there, and I want to give the appearance that I might be coming.

I'm also airlifting out a HQ from Denpassar to Waingapoe. Stacking issues. I don't think Walker will counter-invade Denpassar. That opportunity has passed. I'd rather have more engineers and air support troops.

[apbarog]

August 1943 - Planning

[apbarog]

26 August 43

AKs continue to unload supply at Manado. They leave today. Unloading at Manado is complete. Reinforcements will come from Sidate. Allied cruisers bombard Manado, doing good work. It's almost a daily occurence.

YMS-99 moved to Banjoewangi, at the tip of Java, to sweep mines. I'd done this before, but never completed the job. All mines are swept, but the small ship is targeted by morning and afternoon raids from Soerbaja. I planned this op to get rid of the mines, and to appear that something is imminent here. I have a big xAP task force unloading at Denpassar, but it wasn't even spotted today. I had ranged CAP at Denpassar to protect the inbound ships if they didn't make the distance. Instead, a bunch of Zeros and Tonys escorted 13 Bettys to attack the YMS. 39 Hellcats, 25 P-39s, and a handful of P-40s and Kittyhawks flew cover. Many enemy planes were downed. In the afternoon, a weaker strike arrived, finding just the Hellcats, who didn't do much to stop the raid. YMS-99 was torpedoed and sunk. But my inadvertent CAP trap downed 14 Nells, 11 Tonys, and 4 Zeros, for the loss of 2 P-39s and 1 F6F, all to OPS losses.

At Talaud-eilanden, south of Mindanao, a small portion of the Indian 23rd LRP Brigade dropped in, found no enemy, and captured the base. The rest of the unit, along with some support, is loaded on ships and will arrive in a few days.

Today the Marine Division from Ternate will start to unload at Sidate, to reinforce Manado without taking the disruption from landing directly. Carriers will support.

In the long quiet area of the Solomons, preparations for a landing at Torokina begins. Many CVEs will cover the landing, with some slow battleships. The 1st Cavalry Division will land. Another division is prepped for adjacent Buin, which will be taken afterwards. I have enough APAs here for just one division at a time. Taking these two bases will put me closer to Rabaul, close enough for massed sweeps to be possible. I don't plan on taking Rabaul. I will land nearby and just isolate it. But this area is not a priority.

[BBfanboy]

Most players don't like to attack the DEI because there are so many bases to take, but your plans seem to be working well - good job!

[apbarog]

From the Japanese side, there are just too many places to defend. I can pick and choose what to attack and what to isolate. I do anticipate a strong counterattack somewhere. I just don't know where it will occur. Any one base retaken by the Japanese just isn't going to make any difference. I think that Walker has drawn a line at Mindanao. He may counter my commando unit at Sampit on Borneo, since it is so isolated. When I go to Java soon, I do think there will be a stiff defense there.

There were certainly points of vulnerability along the way. Getting Darwin back, and then the first landing at Timor could have been a place for major fight. Now there are just too many Allied bases.

Landing at Balikpapan soon may stir up some trouble. Allied ships there can be cut off by enemy ships coming from Soerbaja. But with Allied carrier superiority, I don't see it happening.

I'm pushing up the eastern side of Borneo, and getting to the northeastern tip of Borneo. Access to the South China Sea before the end of 1943 isn't game over for the Japanese, but it will restrict tanker convoys to hugging the Vietnam coast. I will be able to concentrate my subs even more. It's just a matter of time. I think that Walker may lose hope before I ever get to a point of being able to bomb the homeland.

[apbarog]

I'm considering a strike with my carriers on Soerbaja, after this operation and before Balikpapan. My reasoning is that he has a heavy CAP there that I'd like to whittle down. I think that I can get within striking range rather safely, because I know that Walker has restricted his naval bombers to not go as far as Denpassar from Soerbaja.

I'm thinking of doing a major fighter sweep, with heavy bombers hitting the port. I have the F6F airframes now, and weakening his local fighters just before I go to Balikpapan can't be a bad thing.

I like to occasionally move aggressively, and unexpectedly, with my carriers. Like the recent raid of Babeldaop. Keeps Walker guessing, and even more defensive. (Note to future opponent...I'm sure this will be read again sometime in the future.)

[jwolf]

Seems like a good plan (the strike at Soerebaja). I hope it goes well and I'm looking forward to it!

[apbarog]

27 Aug 43

Sub Billfish fires on an xAK south of Cam Ranh Bay, but misses.

Manado, Taberfane, Ambon, Boela, Sorong, and Babo are bombed.

The Marine Division from Ternate is now unloading at Sidate, and starting to move to Manado. Lots of support units unloading at Sidate, as well as at Ternate.

At Talaud-eilanden, some engineers have been flown in on Coronados. Other engineers and support are loaded on ships and are inbound.

Allied carriers move south toward Kendari. They will get into position for a big strike on Soerbaja. Note that Saratoga has come out of the ARD at Gove, and is headed to Darwin to join the fleet. 3 fast battleships have come out of upgrades at Sydney and are also headed to Darwin. Very nice AAA additions.

The Torokina operation has begun. Many CVEs leave Rockhampton for the Solomons. Loading of the 1st Cavalry Division and support begins at Luganville.

[adarbrauner]

Do you know if Walker is keeping an AAR?

[Macclan5]

ORIGINAL: apbarog

From the Japanese side, there are just too many places to defend. I can pick and choose what to attack and what to isolate. I do anticipate a strong counterattack somewhere. I just don't know where it will occur. Any one base retaken by the Japanese just isn't going to make any difference. I think that Walker has drawn a line at Mindanao. He may counter my commando unit at Sampit on Borneo, since it is so isolated. When I go to Java soon, I do think there will be a stiff defense there.

There were certainly points of vulnerability along the way. Getting Darwin back, and then the first landing at Timor could have been a place for major fight. Now there are just too many Allied bases.

Landing at Balikpapan soon may stir up some trouble. Allied ships there can be cut off by enemy ships coming from Soerbaja. But with Allied carrier superiority, I don't see it happening.

I'm pushing up the eastern side of Borneo, and getting to the northeastern tip of Borneo. Access to the South China Sea before the end of 1943 isn't game over for the Japanese, but it will restrict tanker convoys to hugging the Vietnam coast. I will be able to concentrate my subs even more. It's just a matter of time. I think that Walker may lose hope before I ever get to a point of being able to bomb the homeland.

As per BB..

I might term this the "fourth Axis of advance - or perhaps the revenge of ABDA"

Its common enough to see (even historically) the usual patterns:

1st Axis = Island Hoping Central Pacific
2nd Axis = Solomon Sea and Northern New Guinea Coast
3rd Axis = Burma / Thailand / Vietnam.

While I have read a significant number of Allied AAR's ; I do not think I have read or experienced one which is this dedicated to this specific axis of advance; so many troops bought out and so many resources dedicated to Northern Australia.

I do find it very very interesting. Congratulations it is great reading and informative.

Other AARs have opined about the Mersing Gambit / Japanese Invasion of CON US/ India Gambit / All in on China.

I have even read a few AARs where a very large invasion of Australia takes place.

However the North East Australia jump off (Darwin is a must I assume) presents the Allied player a real opportunity to strike Oil reserves in late 1942 and 1943 as you indicate. This is an opportunity that the other traditional axis of attacks do not accommodate - not even the Northern New Guinea route (depending upon speed). At the end of the day this can hurt the Imperial Economy much more than the 'sub war' and raids. Finally as you logically indicate there are so many bases that can be built and developed - you have the opportunity to land "where the Japanese are not".

This may actually be a very informative tactic study for the Allied player and Japanese PBEM players will have to seriously consider how and where to stop this axis of advance when so many Allied resources are dedicated to it.

[apbarog]

Adarbrauner, Walker was keeping an AAR, but he stopped awhile ago. The only thing he told me was that he was just reporting defeat after defeat. Before that, he did post occasionally, but not regularly. He may have been discouraged by the lack of discussion, I don't know.

As for me, I decided to report the war day by day, whether it stirs up any discussions or not. I'm a longtime lurker on the forum, and I know that the majority of readers do not post. And I'm ok with that. I do enjoy a discussion though. Every game is different and every game has something to learn from. The joy of this game is in the journey, not the destination. Discussing my turns just adds more enjoyment to the experience for me.

Thank you for the kind words, Macclan5. It may look like a brilliant strategy, but it sort of evolved on its own. My original strategy was your #2, a push up the east coast of New Guinea. When Walker kept KB camped at Rabaul for a long time, I couldn't move that direction. My initial push west of New Guinea was a move to draw KB that direction. That worked, for the loss of my landings at Taberfane and Dobo. After taking southern New Guinea, the DEI area was still woefully garrisoned by the enemy, so I pushed that way. And haven't stopped.

[apbarog]

28 Aug 43

Lots of sub activity in the South China Sea, and nothing to show for it. Tanker, cargo and ASW task forces spotted. Torps missed a tanker, patrol boat, an E boat, and destroyer. Sub Plunger took one depth charge hit and starts to return to base. Lots of subs in the right places, just bad results today.

Today is a day of preparation for the next day. Allied carriers move west, nearer to Makassar, to get into position to strike Soerbaja. They will move adjacent to Denpassar and Mataram for the strike, to benefit from some extra CAP. Lots of fighters and bombers are moved to bases in range of Soerbaja. There are some ships in port there, and between 150 and 200 fighters. Going to be a big fight.

APAs head back to Darwin. Others are loading a division at Koepang, to be taken to Darwin for rest and recovery. Then loading for Balikpapan and Samarinda.

Troop ships head northwest from Luganville, moving into the Solomons for the Torokina invasion.