Headhunter - Lokasenna (A) vs. mind_messing (J) - No MM yet

[Lokasenna]

More or less the same deal here. Eventually we'll invade at Oosthaven, once we have Java, and get the rest.

Note that Padang's hexsides all remain closed. We'll get the IJA there eventually.

Situation at Djambi hasn't deteriorated at least, but then I suppose he can't really come after it without a shock attack either. I just can't move the division out of there, lest it be cut off. Being patient instead. About 50 bombers at Singapore are bombing his troops around here to deplete supply and morale. It will pay off eventually.

[Lokasenna]

My original plans for the PI were to invade Panay and Cebu next, but the IJ air forces don't seem willing to fight in the air. I am able to keep Iloilo and Cebu more or less suppressed. I think the problem may have been one of supplies, at least at Iloilo - I should be able to destroy the garrison from the air alone and take it via paratroops shortly.

Speaking of paratroops, I'm using them to scoop up bases for now.

I'm not anxious to move my ships within striking range of Manila (AF 9), Clark (AF 8), Bataan (AF 6), Cabanatuan (AF 9), Aparri (AF 4), Laoag (AF 5), and San Fernando (AF 4)... all at once, too, given the 10-hex range of Strat-torpedo Jills and that I know he'll be spoiling for a fight with 1500-some planes on a strike + KB + at least 3 Kongos. Going slowly with LRCAP from Panay, Samar, and Cebu would be the wisest course of action. But also the slowest - it could take a few months. I'd rather not have my units sitting idle for months, so I need to come up with something else.

The next post will be basically this same map, captured on December 29 (real life date [:'(]), with my initial conclusions for solving the puzzle.

[Lokasenna]

White circles are bases that I have stacks of units prepped for. My initial plans for a Luzon invasion were to land at Batangas, just outside of Manila, to prevent any kind of slog up from Naga/Legaspi... then land at Iba and San Fernando north of Manila (forces from Indochina) to cut off Manila from the north. However systematic recon of the island has shown that all bases south of Manila are completely undefended. This is unexpected - it means I can use paratroops to capture bases and then land troops without any need for preparation. But it doesn't remove the enemy resistance considerations.

I have another major op in mind and it would be ideal to conduct these at once/in rapid succession - KB can't go to 2 places at the same time.

Green circles represent airfields that could be used to support a landing via LRCAP. The blue circle (Boac) is a reasonable place to land - good port and airfield potential. And it is not clear terrain, so the pattern he has shown of bombing out my paratroop fragments (at the yellow circled bases) and retaking via his own paratroop fragments would not be all that viable for him. Unfortunately, it's also vulnerable to surface TFs based at Manila and only has a dirt road to the rest of the island, so supply propagation would not be as good.

[Lokasenna]

Score on February 1, 1945

VP ratio up to 1.316:1. Getting there... still about 35-40K VPs to go, I expect.

IJA LCU losses are approaching our own.

IJ aircraft losses are approaching 2:1 in our favor (sort of).

The large numbers of IJ planes destroyed on the ground on the prior day is up at Hanoi.

[Lokasenna]

February 1 - February 22, 1945

Indochina
The IJAAF sweeps from Kwangchowan and other bases in SW China, trying to clear our fighters in NE Indochina. I have been LRCAPping to protect the troops from excessive bombing - he has several hundred Peggy/Helen that bomb every now and again. A couple of times we catch him out with more LRCAP than expected. I suspect that he is trying to attrit my fighter pools with his sweeps, more than anything else, as he doesn't always try to bomb. For the most part, we trade positive with planes we can afford to lose plenty of (Corsairs, P-40s, P-51Ds). We also sweep his LRCAP/CAP with P-47s and P-51s, clearing out Hanoi, Nanning, etc.

We also catch a couple of IJA units, and on February 1 outside Hanoi we shocked. Full combat report for it to provide context on what units are present, what it's looking like, etc. Unfortunately we know that some combat-capable units already "escaped" to the east. The IJA had 11 divisions here. Not sure which units were destroyed, but I'd guess they were smaller ART units.

Ground combat at 67,57 (near Haiphong)

Allied Shock attack

Attacking force 191547 troops, 930 guns, 318 vehicles, Assault Value = 6620

Defending force 117706 troops, 1487 guns, 800 vehicles, Assault Value = 2971

Allied adjusted assault: 1795

Japanese adjusted defense: 625

Allied assault odds: 2 to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: disruption(-)
Attacker: shock(+)

Japanese ground losses:
52016 casualties reported
Squads: 1355 destroyed, 320 disabled
Non Combat: 1864 destroyed, 245 disabled
Engineers: 239 destroyed, 52 disabled
Guns lost 381 (289 destroyed, 92 disabled)
Vehicles lost 399 (350 destroyed, 49 disabled)
Units retreated 27
Units destroyed 5

Allied ground losses:
20914 casualties reported
Squads: 883 destroyed, 1330 disabled
Non Combat: 16 destroyed, 296 disabled
Engineers: 22 destroyed, 66 disabled
Guns lost 61 (20 destroyed, 41 disabled)
Vehicles lost 18 (2 destroyed, 16 disabled)

Defeated Japanese Units Retreating!

Assaulting units:
54th Chinese Corps
71st Chinese Corps
21st Chinese Corps
72nd Chinese Corps
66th Chinese Corps Corps
4th Chinese Corps
Guides Cavalry Regiment
65th Chinese Corps
68th Chinese Corps
60th Chinese Corps
44th Chinese Corps
73rd Chinese Corps
94th Chinese Corps
4th Heavy Mortar Regiment
2nd Indian Field Regiment
1st Indian Medium Regiment
6th Mixed A/T Mtr Regiment
6th Medium Regiment
31st Group Army
11th Group Army
12th Group Army
10th Group Army
25th Indian Mountain Gun Regiment
57th AT Gun Regiment
30th Group Army
32nd Group Army
8th Medium Regiment
26th Indian Mountain Gun Regiment
IV Indian Corps
29th Indian Mountain Gun Regiment
3rd Heavy Mortar Regiment
24th Indian Mountain Gun Regiment
3rd NW Frontier Base Force
56th AT Gun Regiment

Defending units:
35th Division
70th Ind.Mixed Brigade
34th/B Division
33rd Division
31st Ind.Mixed Regiment
50th Division
16th Division
21st Division
55th Division
81st Division
72nd Division
15th Division
34th/A Division
1st Division
34th/C Division
Botanko Hvy Gun Regiment
20th Ind. Mtn Gun Battalion
6th Area Army
9th RF Gun Battalion
21st Medium Field Artillery Battalion
8th Ind.Hvy.Art. Battalion
2nd RF Gun Battalion
2nd Medium Field Artillery Regiment
North China Area Army
20th RF Gun Battalion
33rd Army
8th Medium Field Artillery Regiment
1st Hvy.Artillery Regiment
8th RF Gun Battalion
3rd Ind.Hvy.Art. Battalion
10th Medium Field Artillery Regiment
10th RF Gun Battalion
12th Ind.Hvy.Art Battalion
4th Ind. Mountain Gun Regiment
11th Ind.Hvy.Art Battalion
7th JAAF Base Force

Hanoi is captured on February 8 with another few thousand IJA dead and another 100+ guns/vehicles each. Haiphong is captured on February 12. At this point, Franks are now being based at Tuyun (the NW end of the Chinese rail line). None of his airfields up this way are very large, so I'm going to bomb them all once I can use Vinh, Hanoi, and Lang Son safely. IJN E's periodically come to Vinh to harass the airfield and usually end up just damaging a few fighters. Despite the AF being level 9, so no stacking, I still don't want to shift my 1000's of planes here until it's completely safe.

We're also bombing some more industry in China, even though I may regret it as I take more territory. At Chungking, we focus on HI due to its fuel requirement. Also hitting bases farther back - Shanghai, Wuchang, and so forth. Enemy CAP is rare.

We're planning to use the 11th Airborne Division and a Chindit paratroop brigade to try to take some bases in SW China soon. Kweilin, Wuchow, and Kweiyang are all targets, given recon of the bases.

Philippines

We're just using paratroops to take the bases circled in the previous posts. Bombing at Iloilo is causing hundreds of casualties per turn and the IJA should be dead in short order. We'll land at Bacolod and Cebu eventually, but no rush.

On the 21st, we got too cocky about our ability to go where we please in the middle/southern Philippines. 3 CVEs are sunk by torpedoes with banzai attacks at Puerto Princesa while landing a few more troops. Another 5 CVEs need yard time, some quite a bit of it. Despite the loss, we got 400+ IJ planes in the air and another 75 or so from flak and ops.

Timor/Celebes/Java
Dili is captured on February 2. A few thousand IJA dead. We'll have it cleared on February 19, after another 10,000+ IJA casualties. Sidate is cleared on February 2, so the northern Celebes are now clear. We're going to shuttle most of them to Mindanao, staging for Luzon.

On February 5, we land at Kalidjati with a division and some AvSupp + engineers. Looking to keep the units at Batavia tied up with just my presence. Kalidjati itself is undefended.

SST Argonaut, our last SST (others dead in a single turn to 250kg bombs on ASW), hits a mine at Banjoewangi at the SE tip of Java on February 6. This was a routing mistake on my part.

On February 8, we captured Merak with paratroops from Singapore. The sole purpose of this is forts reduction - by using paratroops, instead of landing via SST and letting it auto-occupy, I am assured of dropping the forts. There is enough IJA with unknown levels of supply on Java (suspect it's low, but can't know for sure and it produces a small amount) that he could simply destroy any INFp's I landed. Just looking to get rid of any pre-built forts and will be doing this on every base on Java that has no garrison. Tjilatjap had forts 6 (as well as AF 9), so this was very useful in case of IJA retreats.

On February 12, landings begin at Banjoewangi. There is a mixed brigade here, but we're bringing enough (a few brigades and division parts from Timor) that it won't matter. Unfortunately, a few DEs and APAs hit mines there. 2 DEs are lost over 2 days.

Others

On February 20, strat bombing of Sapporo nets us a bunch of Resource hits. We gain 470 strat VPs over this time period.

Landings begin at Babeldaob on February 20 as well. The coastal guns tear up our ships - it's much stiffer than expected. I've landed here in another game, as well as Truk and Saipan with their fortresses, but I didn't reduce this base enough it seems. Our troops have been prepped for this location for a few months (from the New Guinea campaign).

[Lokasenna]

Java area map.

[Lokasenna]

Entering China.

In retrospect while doing this screenshot, I probably could've been less cautious in engaging the IJA Deathstar. It was really much reduced in the successful attack at Hanoi. It still has 760 guns here in this stack, but it used to be at least 1.5x that. I probably could've kept my forces concentrated at Hanoi and moving east.

However, I am hoping to pull off some subterfuge here. A big part of this is that the IJAAF is unable to use a lot of the upcoming airfields so shouldn't have good eyes on my guys.

I think the IJA should've held onto the hexes outside of Hanoi, E and NE. And Haiphong. The shock attack(s) for me could have been backbreaking.

[Lokasenna]

Strat Map on February 22.

I have another arrow coming, but it's secret for now. Another couple of days...

[Lokasenna]

Recon shows that KB is now basing out of Tokyo. This is good for us, but it also means we can't move up north until we draw KB south. So it's a Luzon vs. Kuriles calculation - which first?

[Lokasenna]

Well, I got another turn back, and my troops should be in their destination hex, so it's safe to post this now. Just 3 days to doomsday.

I expect supply to be a problem but not insurmountable, especially once I am able to march enough of them to the south and/or have captured up through Changsha.

Does anyone know - I can disband some of the respawning Corps units, correct? I am thinking that I will disband 1 out of every 3 to get squads into the pools (I have about 1100 now, but on-map forces are short about 3000).

[Lokasenna]

Oops, meant to post this prior to the China map above. Forgot I hadn't posted it yet (or even typed it up).

Update to March 15, 1945

Philippines
Almost no change. Just bombing Iloilo, Cebu. Sweeping and CAPing/LRCAPing. The Manila AF complex is still scary, and I don't have enough supply on Mindanao yet to wage a sustained campaign. Only about 250K total supply there now and believe it or not... that isn't enough to not have yellow and red !'s on the map. Cotabato has 173K supplies but has a required amount of 60K due to the enormous number of planes based there.

We've shifted some xAK Liberty ships to Rabaul to run 60K-ton CS convoys into Davao.

Indochina
Well, I just posted that map above...

Babeldaob
It's ours, as well as Yap (which went much better than Babel). This is mostly just to secure our SLOC flank - the nearest IJ airfields to the Rabaul-Davao SLOC now are the Marianas proper. Ulithi has no airfield. Peleliu does, but should be out of supply. Truk is still something of a concern, but I don't feel like taking the time at this point to bomb it/take it.

Java
2K AV at or heading to Soerabaja now. Another 2100 AV at Kalidjati or marching up that way. We'll let this map speak for this campaign. These forces will move to Oosthaven to polish off Sumatra next, and then everything will head up to Luzon and onwards.

[Lokasenna]

We're pretty much set up in the north...

[Lokasenna]

Ah, going to post it anyway.

[Lokasenna]

March 16 - 31, 1945

NORPAC
Loading for the Kuriles begins on March 18. CV and CVE groups (1 each) leave Pearl Harbor on the same day. KB is back at Tokyo.

The invasion forces depart on March 24 for their targets. The CVs will catch up.

China
The 11th Airborne "fragment" (in reality most of its squads) is wiped out at Hengyang. It will rebuild to the west and I'll use it again in a few months.

Nanning is captured on March 16. Paoshan is captured on March 23, which had been abandoned by all but 1 IJA division.

Taking advantage of moves in the Philippines, on March 22 we sweep and bomb Hong Kong during the day, looking to shut down this airfield and kill some planes. At least 30 planes are bombed on the ground. We also sweep Canton and clear it all.

Philippines
There is an attempt by IJAAF units with paratroops to recapture Calapan, the base I own just to the SW of Manila. It stalls.

On March 19, TFs loaded for Luzon begin heading east and then north from Davao/Cagayan. I haven't picked the target hex yet, but the paratroops are ready to capture everything. The invasion forces are spotted east of Leyte on March 20. I move them to Guiuan as a feint and to allow some stragglers to catch up.

On March 21, 4EB's absolutely pound Cabanatuan, destroying several hundred planes on the ground: Tabby, Peggy, Frances, Jack, Zero, George, Oscar, and 3 different models of night fighter. Hundreds. The cost to my bombers is minimal (although not nonexistent), which is not what I expected. I hadn't bombed previously because I didn't want to try to absorb a few dozen losses or more to night CAP + flak. This allows us to go ahead with the plan for Luzon regardless of whether KB comes down. Naga will be the landing site.

On March 22, several hundred more planes are bombed on the ground at Cabanatuan and Manila.

By the end of the month, Naga's airfield has reached level 5 and we've also taken Bacolod and landed at Cebu. Total AV at Naga is 2785, plus 1300 engineers and 450 AvSupp. Naval support is 360, so things unload quickly. Another 4000 AV is waiting on Mindanao and we will shuttle it up over time. We do need more supply.

Speaking of supply, the situation on Mindanao is finally alleviated.

Unfortunately, the airfield at Manila is operational again by the end of the month as well. He must have a bunch of engineers there. All the more reason for me to bring everything I can to the ground battle, as I might be facing forts 9.

Java/Sumatra

Batavia is captured on March 27. Soerabaja still holds out due to fatigue in our units and insufficient support resulting in low adjusted AV, but the end is imminent. It is the final base on Java still in Japanese hands.

On Sumatra, we've broken the IJA and forced them to retreat towards Palembang. We will land at Oosthaven soon and begin pushing from the south as well.

My reason for finishing off things down here is basically that I want to disengage these units and bring them up to China. I anticipate a very broad front here and will need every division I can find.

[Lokasenna]

A few days prior to sending all the invasion forces for the Kuriles, we send a wave of subs. A big wave. About a dozen subs remain at Amchitka to replace subs that are damaged by the inevitable swarms of 2x250kg ASW planes.

KB sailed south to try to hit the Naga area on March 28 and its air wing got shot up, so the Kuriles invasion is on.

[Lokasenna]

March 29 battles... not all of these losses are KB. A lot of this is from Manila. Nothing serious gets through. I think this is the biggest aerial "swing" of the game.

We got somewhat lucky just prior - all of the subs we engaged in otherwise useless patrol zones to the E and NE of Luzon... one of them spots Shinano and puts 1 torp into her. Enough to slow her down, outside of Daito Shoto. She appears to have been in a TF of her own during the air phase.

Unfortunately, I missed a chance here. I left my CVs just outside of Naga under the thinking that he would strike for the beaches. I should have just moved a hex or two north - I forgot that I wasn't using my CVs to CAP the beaches anymore and they were around purely for KB detection. I had an inkling that he was coming from the previous day's combat reports and sub/ASW spottings, with a mystery TF between Aparri/Daito/Ishigaki. I was loaded for bear, too... if I'd moved north, I'm pretty sure it would have been the end of KB. Oh well.

9x Ki-49-IIb Helen flying as kamikaze
CVE Saginaw Bay, Kamikaze hits 1

B6N2a Jill x63 @ 31,000 feet with 36 escorts against 300+ CAP at Naga. 23 get through despite layered CAP all the way up to 32K and 58-minute warning with dozens of planes vectored onto bombers immediately ([8|]):
CVE Khedive, Torpedo hits 3, and is sunk
CVE Kadashan Bay, Torpedo hits 1
CVE Pursuer, Torpedo hits 2, on fire

Another group of Jills, set lower:
BB Richelieu, Torpedo hits 1
BB King George, Kamikaze hits 1

And the KB-Deathstar fight, where we began with 504 fighters on CAP:
BB Indiana, Bomb hits 1
BB Missouri, Torpedo hits 1



These air losses for Japan push the Allies up over the 100K VP threshold.

[Lokasenna]

April 1 update on VPs and map:

1.421:1 ratio in our favor, but still quite a ways to go for the 2:1. Still not to a 2:1 in air points, but getting close.

[Lokasenna]

Scrapping the amphibious invasion at Hong Kong plans now and re-prepping for other targets. I don't want to land into the teeth of this. I can cut it off and march back for the shipyard and VPs.

Marching 4K AV on Kukong while about 1100 remains at Wuchow to make sure forces don't simply march up from Canton and cut off my advance. Looking to begin isolating Canton/Hong Kong now.

The move for Kweilin is a feint, thinking maybe he will abandon it if it looks like I am about to march in with a huge army, although he has seen me attach with the 5K AV that went south. I am hoping that he thinks the armies outside Kweilin and Wuchow are my main and only forces, but meanwhile to the north... about 2 weeks to the outskirts of Chungking and the Zombie Horde.

Kweilin is the first base within 28 hexes of western Japan, by the way. That's normal B-29 range. I would prefer Changsha/Nanchang, so that I can also begin controlling the skies over Shanghai and bringing B-24s to bear.

[Lokasenna]

If I can manage to free the horde...

1x Corps with 474 AV
2x Corps with 302 AV
55x Corps with 257 AV [X(]
1x Corps with 175 AV
Various other units (30 HQs, for example)

Dat's a lot of "free" squads. All spawning within 7 days of Chungking or Chengtu liberation.

This has been a major strategic goal of mine, but I was originally planning to do it via heavy bombing and paratroops in a single day. This looks like it's going to work out a whole lot better and more reliably.

[Lokasenna]

April 9, 1945 - Java