The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[JohnDillworth]

My wife and I are in Wyoming enjoying Yellowstone and the Grand Teatons parks this week. Staying in Jackson I hauled my 58 year old posterior up a mountain for a total of 8,000 ft (started at 6,300 in Jackson) above sea level and a view of some of the most spectacular landscape on earth. 100 % deep, clear blue sky with unlimited visibility. Absolute magic. At totality it is like someone turned off a light switch. The stars came out and the blue of the suns atmosphere crackling around the moon was a color I have never seen before. When the sun came back out like a diamond at the 1 O'clock position there was an almost primal sensation of joy that the light had returned. Weird and wonderful.
Today is off to the Grand Teatons and a wildlife guided tour in the late afternoon. Seen a few moose and herds and herds of Buffalo so far

[AcePylut]

ORIGINAL: DW

ORIGINAL: AcePylut

100% Totality for about 2 minutes. It was cool, a bucket list item checked off, but all in all, I was underwhelmed. Year and Years of watching universe/space shows on TV... I guess I was expecting something a little different.

Really? I got right on the path of max totality and I while nothing happened that I wasn't really expecting, I thought it was spectacular.

The glow around the horizon had a color tone that I don't think I've ever seen in nature before and had me wondering of the word "umbra" and the name for the color "umber" are related (look it up later). And, the... shimmering isn't quite the right word but I'm at a loss for a better one, of Sol's corona was magical.

I could feel the heat of the sun on my skin falling off as totality approached.

And, it was impossible to watch the eclipse and not be reminded of that I was sharing an experience that had amazed, astounded and terrified humanity for perhaps 200,000 years.

Can't wait for the next one in 2024.

Honestly, I’m not exactly sure why I felt that way. I love space stuff and universe stuff and stars/galaxies/planetary conjunctions and so on, try to see all that I can (my favorites: Meteor showers, looking at the Milky Way, and absolute #1 is the Northern Lights)… I think it was that so many of these space shows had these spacegeeks talking about how “life changing totality is/was for me” that I think my expectations were a lot higher. I don’t want to take away from the total awesomeness that it was… but I think I had “life changing” expectations that were unmet.

I liked the crescent shaped shadows (have a few pics of it), though it was neat how the temp started dropping (my wife was all “I’m going to do some yardwork, the temp’s becoming bearable”), didn’t expect the shadows shimmering right before and after the eclipse, and probably was most shocked by how much light just a sliver of the sun actually puts out. I expected a gradual darkening of the sky, not for it to switch off “like that” once totality hit.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: DW

ORIGINAL: AcePylut

100% Totality for about 2 minutes. It was cool, a bucket list item checked off, but all in all, I was underwhelmed. Year and Years of watching universe/space shows on TV... I guess I was expecting something a little different.

Really? I got right on the path of max totality and I while nothing happened that I wasn't really expecting, I thought it was spectacular.

The glow around the horizon had a color tone that I don't think I've ever seen in nature before and had me wondering of the word "umbra" and the name for the color "umber" are related (look it up later). And, the... shimmering isn't quite the right word but I'm at a loss for a better one, of Sol's corona was magical.

I could feel the heat of the sun on my skin falling off as totality approached.

And, it was impossible to watch the eclipse and not be reminded of that I was sharing an experience that had amazed, astounded and terrified humanity for perhaps 200,000 years.

Can't wait for the next one in 2024.

Umbra is Latin for "shadow". Hence, umbrella (little shadow).

[DW]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

My wife and I are in Wyoming enjoying Yellowstone and the Grand Teatons parks this week. Staying in Jackson I hauled my 58 year old posterior up a mountain for a total of 8,000 ft (started at 6,300 in Jackson) above sea level and a view of some of the most spectacular landscape on earth. 100 % deep, clear blue sky with unlimited visibility. Absolute magic. At totality it is like someone turned off a light switch. The stars came out and the blue of the suns atmosphere crackling around the moon was a color I have never seen before. When the sun came back out like a diamond at the 1 O'clock position there was an almost primal sensation of joy that the light had returned. Weird and wonderful.
Today is off to the Grand Teatons and a wildlife guided tour in the late afternoon. Seen a few moose and herds and herds of Buffalo so far

Man... I while I thoroughly enjoyed my experience, I have to admit that after reading of yours... I'm a bit envious. [:)]

I saw it from southern Illinois, and there was enough haze that the corona lightening it up prevented me from seeing many stars.

Acepylut...

Yeah... I would agree that it wasn't "life changing". But, it was definitely a thoroughly unique experience from a number of different aspects.

And, you're totally right as to it being surprising how little of the sun has to be exposed to create the qualia of daylight and the "switch off" sensation when it was gone. It was like the corona just popped into existence.

BBfanboy... Thanks. I did get around to looking it up and it would seem that if or how the two words are related is uncertain. But, the tonal quality of the remaining light around the entire horizon (entire horizon being lit up at once... another unique aspect of the experience) definitely brought that color to mind.

[Lokasenna]

The "Judy" hit on your sub could easily be a Judy-C, recon/search version, which has a range somewhere around 20 hexes. Those could easily be flying from Sumatra or Malaysia as part of a search net.

[Canoerebel]

Yeah, I know they could be LBA search aircraft. But there were no search aircraft covering these waters until just now...at the same time some of John's carrier divisions retired into the western (southern, true map) DEI. It could be a coincidence that he's suddenly employing LBA searches or it might be an indication of a pending raid. I don't know, so I have to allow for both possibilities.

[Canoerebel]

11/8/44

KB to Raid the Bay of Bengal? I'd rate the odds at about 40% at the moment.

[Canoerebel]

11/8/44

Fancy Pants: On the right, the Allies beat back 2nd Tank Division, which takes heavy losses. One the left, a 1:1 attack inflicts much higher losses on the Japanese. Another attack there tomorrow should bend back that front.

In the rear, the Chinese shock attack liberates a city. The Japanese MLR is intact, but there are now some weakness that I may be able to exploit, using massed Chinese troops and Allied air power.

The Japanese are in trouble in China. The outcome isn't certain yet, but we may end up with a Falaise Pocket scenario.

[BBfanboy]

The cracks in Japan's China are showing, and Gorilla Glue is not going to be enough to hold it together any more! Give them more cowbell!

[MakeeLearn]

The Japanese are in trouble in China. The outcome isn't certain yet, but we may end up with a Falaise Pocket scenario.

Meanwhile in Japan....

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

The cracks in Japan's China are showing, and Gorilla Glue is not going to be enough to hold it together any more! Give them more cowbell!

This is a rhetorical rant. I don't want any answers, explanations, etc. In fact, feel free to ignore me as some of you most certainly do. [:)] I certainly don't mean to hurt anyone's feelings, but my own, and I am not casting aspersions on anything or anyone, but wow.

"Cracks in Japan's China are showing". Seriously?[&:]

My goodness the cracks have been showing since before the Foochow invasion, before Luzon fell. I don't get you AFBs at all.[&:]

Nothing is more important than the strategic bombing of Honshu according to High Command, but here we seem to be going north and west into China away from closer and closer bases to Honshu and to rack up those VPs from bombing Japan you need daytime bombing which means close fighter bases. Night bombing is strong, but slow and weather prone.

So, there is obviously something else afoot, and certainly the Allies are so strong they can walk and chew gum at the same time (i.e. have multiple operations) or this has been a huge waste of tempo. China was ready to fall when the Allies were parachuting all across Vietnam months and months ago, but holding those bases was not deemed any kind of priority since the Allies didn't want to fight in a supply suck that is China...and yet here we are.

China, Formosa, and now China again, but China to the North and West.

I don't get it, I never have gotten it despite CR's explanations to stupid slow ole me. I will never get it. I am a JFB and can't understand why the Allies haven't gone for the throat (and make no mistake when the KB is revealed for months on end, Japan is asking for it in a multitude of ways), and continue not to go for the throat, with the throat seemingly being offered up every week in a variety of forms. I do understand the slow downs because of supply...so I guess I ain't hopeless.

But there are lots of ways for the Allies to win...but it seems clear to me we are taking the long road here. It is a safe road, but very long. Constantly we are told Japan should be committing the KB, and yet there have been many times when a run by the deathstar would have forced a fight. Why in the world would you expect Japan to commit the KB against the Deathstar when you are unwilling to commit the DS against the KB? Why hasn't the DS sought out and destroyed elements of the KB on favorable terms when the opportunity has presented itself, most notably near Cam Ranh Bay, but also going all the way back to the ludicrous circling the mini KB did way way back in 43?

Japan has literally been flat on her back exposing her throat since Luzon was invaded from everything CR has posted. Now don't get me wrong, Japan has powerful tools (KB) but for the most part the location of the KB has been known with near certainty for months.

Of course, I have no idea what is really going on. CR likes misdirection and is in total control of what is posted. So, in other words I am sure that I am all wet so don't take anything I typed seriously. [:)]

Ok, I feel better. Cracks in China showing, lol.

rant off.

[BBfanboy]

I understand what you are saying about priority to strat bombing, Lowpe, but one of CRs stated goals was to demolish the IJA and recoup points for troops lost - the area on the scoreboard where he has the most ground to make up. Turning China into a rout and hopefully trapping most of the troops in the southwestern quadrant will help a lot with that. Thus the cheers for seeing a trap slowly spring.

[Canoerebel]

The answer to Lowpe's question is far simpler than he realizes: logistics.

I do not have the supply to move forward any further. As it is, Ningpo will have difficulty supporting 4EB. Going deeper would be asking for more trouble - low supply, tough to defend, in the enemy's wheelhouse where he could bombard exposed airfields.

Japanese players may lose sight of the difficulty of maintaining supply levels at the end of a 4,000-mile LOC. Yes the Allies have huge lift capacity, but supporting massive armies and air forces is a logistical challenge. Fun but challenging.

I bet Lowpe has no idea how many merchant ships I have or where there are or how and why hundreds got hung up in Luzon for so long.

In a game this immensely complex, it's impossible for any reader to have a strong grasp of what constraints I'm operating under. Could a more aggressive player have done more? Probably. Could a more aggressive player made a mistake and set himself much further back than I am? Probably? Have I conceived, planned, and executed a plan that has put the Allies in a favorable position to win this game in a timely manner? You answer. Am I learning a lot and having a blast? You know I am.

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel


I bet Lowpe has no idea how many merchant ships I have or where there are or how and why hundreds got hung up in Luzon for so long.

At this point in the game, I am eating my shoes.

[Canoerebel]

You're comparing apples to oranges. Japan is chronically low on supply. I get it. The Allies are flush with supply. I get it. But it takes time and ships to get that forward and then hungry airplanes and men use it up too fast.

[Lokasenna]

I would trade 50 or more B-29s for 2800 points of industry damage, worth 5600+ VPs. I don't care if that's not "sustainable" - that rate of VP gain is not "sustainable" for him at a far great "rate of unsustainability."

[AcePylut]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

You're comparing apples to oranges. Japan is chronically low on supply. I get it. The Allies are flush with supply. I get it. But it takes time and ships to get that forward and then hungry airplanes and men use it up too fast.

Question - based on your supply route "West Coast to PH to Oz (via the far South Pacific) to Northern Oz to the Southern DEI to PI to Formosa to China" - and looking back on it - do you feel that if you had perhaps traded a few more warships/troops and gone through the Marshalls to Saipan to parts beyond, you would be in a better place with supply now?

Also - does the mere existence of the KB, even though it's done nothing but exist since Wake Island, have an effect on your supply lines?

I know there's been a whole shitton of criticism from the peanut gallery about John not committing his CV's in multiple areas in this thread... but if he had committed them and lost them, would that supply line be much smaller (PH direct to PI?) and the threat to the Home Islands that much greater? As such, perhaps the best move John has made in regards to his CV's is to, indeed, keep them afloat and not commit them to a battle.

I know hindsight is 20/20 and it's not a criticism, just a question for us poor AFB's that don't get committed opponents like John to make it to late '44.

[JohnDillworth]

B-24's bombing the Home Islands in 1944. No further justification for your strategy is nessesary. Everything else is is playtime

[Canoerebel]

1. I think a more direct LOC through the Marianas would be just as problematic. john could raid into that LOC, thus necessitating a pretty heavy commitment of warships and carriers along the LOC to provide adequate protection. In other words, to create a significantly better LOC, I'd have needed an unimaginably wide LOC. (Really, what's hampered me the most is all the xAKs I lost early in the game when I really didn't know what I was doing; if I'd conserved them properly I'd have so much shipping that the current configuration of my LOC wouldn't matter.)

2. Yes, the existence of KB is a check on my LOC operations. It keeps me honest and slows me down to an extent.

3. I don't think John's use of KB was his highest possible use. I pointed out a few days ago that I think his most effective use would've been an attack against Death Star combined with LBA. Even if he had lost badly, it would have made a material difference if he had knocked out some fleet carriers. Death Star, in reduced numbers, wouldn't have the strength to sail with impunity close to big interlocking enemy airfields, thus dampening my ability to strike against Formosa or near Shanghai or the Home Islands. Also, my LOC would still be vulnerable to surface combat raiders or what would be left of his carrier force, so that I'd still need to be cautious in protecting supply ships.

Lowpe mentioned yesterday that I should deploy Death Star against KB. I did, of course, in September '43 at Wake Island. After that, KB as used was no longer a material brake on the Allied advance. It wasn't necessary for me to veer off - KB was no longer preventing me from taking the war to the enemy heartland. I didn't need to mess with KB as long as it was out on the peripheries. Since KB wasn't a threat out there it was up to John to make it a threat if he wanted to slow me down.

[Canoerebel]

Perceptions about the game vary widely with experience, information, effective salesmanship by me or John, and biases of a reader.

I think I've done a good job in the game, so that's the way I come at things from my AAR. AFBs who read the AAR get a lot of information with my spin on things and may therefore view things similarly to the way I do.

The same may hold for JFBs reading John's AAR. The best example is Yaab. Back in the early summer of '43, he posted in here after I lost a cruiser in the Marshalls campaign. I think his exact words were, "You seem off your game." I was surprised at his take on things. The Allies had just managed to surprise Japan in the Aluetians, the Marshalls and the Gilberts back-to-back-to-back in short order and with almost no losses. How could Yaab see things differently?

But in his case, he was reading John's AAR, no doubt flush with optimism as the Sumatra campaign was coming to an end and the Allies were engaged in ops that might have seemed fairly far out. (I recall John saying he had already pulled out some of his garrisons from the Marshalls, so that he undoubtedly spun things that way in his AAR.)

By the summer of '43 I knew what my plans were through the DEI, Luzon and Foochow, China. I knew that there were holes in his defenses. I knew those holes were likely to remain. I knew that Sumatra had taken too much of John's attention for too long and too far away, even if he and his readers thought it was a great victory.

If the game ended today, some of John's readers would probably pop in with an analysis of why he'd won the game or at least done much better than we're giving him credit for. I understand their biases and preferences and support of him as a person and a player. But how badly must John have played if they're opinion is that I should have beat him faster?

I believe the state of the war in November 1944 is pretty consistent with what I was saying all along. That Sumatra was really an affair that would prove to my advantage. That John was making a mistake by committing big troops to Celebes since he probably hadn't attended to Luzon properly. That sending KB to whack Allied CVEs in SoPac would allow the Allies to take Foochow and to take control of the Formosa campaign (through bombardments). And that heavy fighting early and often was an investment - a front-loading - that would allow the Allies to harvest victory points efficiently late.

Of course, my play has in no ways been optimal. No doubt I've missed countless opportunities or messed up things. And in this there is no question: some (many) players could've taken these circumstances and done more with them.

But I was operating at about my peak efficiency. For proof of that I point you to Nemo's comments when I invaded Sumatra in November 1942. That smart man had a vision for how the invasion could be so much more than it was, mainly by invading Malaya too. I respected him and bought into his vision. I diverted troops to Malaya. But I was not the player to implement his vision. Trying to do so exceeded my ability and ended up diminishing what I could've done on my own. Nemo would've done far better than I did but I should've stuck with my vision own vision rather than trying to play someone else's.

If JFBs assess some kind of Japanese victory here, that's Yaab Vision. He genuinely saw things that way.