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Those are good points, BBfanboy, but perceptions will be hard to quantify. "We could have done better" is always the case, and finger pointing will be at a premium given our current environment. Analysis and self analysis will be done but it'll be a messy, imprecise exercise.
Deaths/M offers one way to measure impact. And, reading back through this thread, you'll see that there have many predictions that various US cities and states and regions were destined to suffer severe outbreaks. Those predictions were made despite distances and densities in population. But that didn't happen.
I understand your point and agree that dispersity may have been our biggest advantage. In that case, though, its hard to compare NYC against Arkansas or Tucumcari, New Mexico. Or Germany to the US.
ORIGINAL: BBfanboy
ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
Encircled, I don't follow. The only way to measure country to country is by deaths/M. That measure puts things into perspective.
I disagree with the country to country comparison as the best standard - the US and Canada have huge territorial dispersion of the population that is not the norm for the world. We will be judged on whether we could have done better by recognizing the danger sooner, acting sooner and coordinating effectively both within our country and in cooperation with the rest of the world.
We share knowledge with other countries, I don't understand why we cannot coordinate/cooperate at the policy and equipment levels, and maybe staffing levels to some extent too. We share forest fire/wildfire equipment and personnel with countries as far away as Australia, why not work to suppress this beast worldwide?
Yeah, I understand that politics drives a lot of the local decisions, often for the worse because politicians want to assure people that the problem can be handled locally and they (the politicians) are the ones who can fix it for them. But I think it will not go away long-term until it is handled worldwide. With all the communication tools we have these days it should be easy to coordinate a response if there was a will to do so.
+1 Dan.
BB keep in mind where much of the populations are in the US & Canada; it's not just about population across the whole land mass, there are pockets of very great concentration.
Most important, "could we have done better?" is a rigged question, that's clear when you look at it from a couple of steps back. The answer will always be "yes". Seeking lessons learned is good. The inevitability of imperfection does not mean you failed, but that is how political opportunists are using every observation, including many which are taken so far out of context they are not factual as used.
Louisiana's outbreak began about the same time (or earlier?) than NYC. It's not a second outbreak. It's an first outbreak that has already peaked and is declining ahead of NYC.
Second, US flights from Europe go to most of the large US airports, certainly including Atlanta and Chicago. If Europe is the source of NYC's outbreak, a similar level should've been experienced in Atlanta, Chicago and other major airports. That didn't happen.
ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive
ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
The virus arrived at many US cities at the same time or earlier than it arrived in NY. Those other cities didn't experience massive outbreaks, either due to luck or some combination of other factors. Given your concerns, other cities already should have had raging outbreaks.
And Michigan isn't close to NYC. From NYC to Detroit is 614 miles - about the same as from London to Berlin.
I think that if you look right to the beginning the picture might be a little misleading. Remember that the virus started in China and so initially would have been coming into the US from the West Coast. I'd suggest that is why you have early start dates for places like Washington State and California. Your president took a lot of criticism for shutting down the flights in from China but it seems to me that from that perspective at least he was ahead of the curve and gave you another month or so before it started breaking out again in earnest on the East Coast fueled by infections coming from Europe (at what point were flights stopped from Italy and Spain?).
In terms of deaths/million - New York is worse than any of the European countries on 513. You then have Spain Italy and Belgium on c.350, New Jersey/France on c.250, and then Louisiana, Connecticut, Michigan and the UK on c.160-180. Massachusetts is on c120. For me that (Louisiana aside) gives support to my suggestion that the US might actually be dealing with its second outbreak.
I'm finishing my lunch break now and will have to come back to any responses this evening.
I went and checked the numbers for the main international airports for London, Madrid, Paris and Milan. Also Schipol as that is a big connector. Picked the top 3 connections with the USA for each. I got the following and added the numbers of flights. Slight skews that I only have top 10 worldwide destinations for CDC and top 20 for Schipol. Milan airport has their top 40 destinations listed and these only include NY, Miami and Newark. I assume that for other destinations they transfer either out of Rome or Schipol.
NY JFK 7.6M
LA 3.3M
Miami 2M
Atlanta 1.7M
Chicago 1.5M
Newark 1.3M
Dallas 0.9M
Detroit 0.6M
So NY has more than twice the passenger numbers compared to LA. Almost 5 times as many as Chicago or Atlanta. That is even before you start speculating about what proportions of US/Europeans comprise those numbers. I can see some Europeans flying out to Atlanta for business but I'd speculate that maybe 2/3 of those flights were Americans flying to Europe. Similarly I would not be surprised if there was a corresponding bias the other way round in terms of Europeans flying to and from NY. So potentially that could give you 5M vs 0.6M in terms of European passengers - almost 10 times as many.
From those numbers the bigger surprise would not Chicago/Atlanta/Miami but that there has not been a bigger issue in LA.
Encircled, I don't follow. The only way to measure country to country is by deaths/M. That measure puts things into perspective.
And we are still going to be well below Germany.
Hans Bolter leapt off the deep end and implied it was anti-american to question what both our countries have done. (edit, its obviously not anti-american to question UK stuff!)
I don't think that helps when we both clearly have questions to answer.
(I leave it here btw as I don't want to get into a row over this now we've both made our points)
Anti-American is Anti-American no matter how you try to cloak it.
Please show me where I accused some one of being anti-American for asking a simple question.
You will likely find that the so called question was composed in a manner that lectured and or postured an anti-American position in the process of asking what became a not so simple question because of the manner in which it was couched.
The claims of innocence when we are all quite capable of reading the innuendo is something I find to be reprehensible.
Right, Sammy. LA and California have been major puzzles, at least to me.
As for airport travel, Atlanta is the busiest passenger terminal in the world. Folks come and go nonstop and also come and go from all the other airports. If traffic into NYC was an issue, that should've been reflected in places like LA and Atlanta (and the others too, given the level of mobility between major airports).
It seems to me, purely from an armchair, that population density probably played the biggest role in what happened in NYC. There are probably sub-categories, like the fact that NYC has alot of foot traffic and ethnic communities and family unit density that might not be similar in other cities. Those are just guesses, trying from an armchair to unravel what to me remains an unknown, at this point.
JohnD in NYC spoke about this at some length about 10 days ago, but I've mostly forgotten what he said.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
Probably, or the offer of a quick and generous settlement. Plus corrective surgery and/or clinical help for her to get some buns in the oven.
There is a reason why the staff now asks you what you are in for before surgery and mark the appropriate part of the body. In a US Veterans hospital in the state of Florida, the wrong leg was removed. [X(]
Seek peace but keep your gun handy.
I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!
“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).” ; Julia Child
In the UK, we are only counting hospital deaths in the daily totals btw.
not sure how that helps to be perfectly honest, and we have a looming problem in the care homes.
I think that means the curve won't be flattening out this week, but the social distancing is certainly having an effect.
Shopping at Asda today was a far less stressful experience as they had organised it a hell of a lot better so that the queuing and the spacing in the store was more than adequate.
Probably, or the offer of a quick and generous settlement. Plus corrective surgery and/or clinical help for her to get some buns in the oven.
There is a reason why the staff now asks you what you are in for before surgery and mark the appropriate part of the body. In a US Veterans hospital in the state of Florida, the wrong leg was removed. [X(]
There was a case like that in Oz.
We no longer have jury trials for cases like that - judge alone. The debate was - what is the $valuation of an individual of having a family, compared to the actual cost of doing it? Yes it was agreed there was a in-nominate value to affection and companionship that is hard to value. But the actuarial evidence was that raising a child costs you A$700,00 Pacific pesos.
I think he got $50,000 for the cock-up, so to speak. We no longer have exemplary damages for this sort of thing.
Edit - $700,000 per child - without private school education.
Encircled, I don't follow. The only way to measure country to country is by deaths/M. That measure puts things into perspective.
And we are still going to be well below Germany.
Hans Bolter leapt off the deep end and implied it was anti-american to question what both our countries have done. (edit, its obviously not anti-american to question UK stuff!)
I don't think that helps when we both clearly have questions to answer.
(I leave it here btw as I don't want to get into a row over this now we've both made our points)
Anti-American is Anti-American no matter how you try to cloak it.
Please show me wear I accused some one of being anti-American for asking a simple question.
You will likely find that the so called question was composed in a manner that lectured and or postured an anti-American position in the process of asking what became a not so simple question because of the manner in which it was couched.
The claims of innocence when we are all quite capable of reading the innuendo is something I find to be reprehensible.
Being anti-Trump is not anti-american. Pretty obvious that those of us from Europe are anti-Trump, but that doesn't mean we are anti-american. I'm certainly of the opinion that one country tends to be top dog, and its better being the US than the alternatives.
We are all students of history ffs, we all know the dangers of unquestionable belief in what the state is doing is right.
Questioning that is an essential part of our democracy, especially at times like this.
(Appreciate this is political, so happy to stop now I've made my point of view in regards to being called "anti-american")
Right, Sammy. LA and California have been major puzzles, at least to me.
As for airport travel, Atlanta is the busiest passenger terminal in the world. Folks come and go nonstop and also come and go from all the other airports. If traffic into NYC was an issue, that should've been reflected in places like LA and Atlanta (and the others too, given the level of mobility between major airports).
It seems to me, purely from an armchair, that population density probably played the biggest role in what happened in NYC. There are probably sub-categories, like the fact that NYC has alot of foot traffic and ethnic communities and family unit density that might not be similar in other cities. Those are just guesses, trying from an armchair to unravel what to me remains an unknown, at this point.
JohnD in NYC spoke about this at some length about 10 days ago, but I've mostly forgotten what he said.
Yeah I started off by googling busiest airports and was a bit confused initially by Atlanta. The impression I got was that it is a big domestic hub. I appreciate that journeys into NY don't necessarily just 'stop there'.
I agree with you that population density is a really big driver.
To be honest I think that this is one of those situations where we won't know who is right or wrong till further on down the line. I'm hoping that it is you! But at this point I am very much in a mode of wait and see.
he team focused their research on sites in Myanmar where humans are more likely to come into close contact with local wildlife due to changes in land use and development. From May 2016 to August 2018, they collected more than 750 saliva and fecal samples from bats in these areas. Experts estimate that thousands of coronaviruses––many of which have yet to be discovered—are present in bats.
Yeah, no kidding. Send a team of researches to stick swabs down the throats of bats and crawl around in the guano. They will find a potential pandemic virus all right.
Thanks, Encircled for this: "Pretty obvious that those of us from Europe are anti-Trump, but that doesn't mean we are anti-american."
I wondered about that but didn't wish to articulate it. It helps put our forum community into better context. It might help both "sides" going forward.
In the US, the electorate is divided roughly in half. That's probably true for US members of the Forum too. When you add in UK and other folks who may be anti-Trump, the forum as a whole may lean decidedly that way.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.