Stand fast or manoeuvre? StB EvK (Axis) vs. Elma666(Soviets)

[EwaldvonKleist]

Thanks. So Sevastopol remains safe from sea landings even with Kerch lost=no guarding needed. The Rumanian corps commander is pleased.

[EwaldvonKleist]

Hi all,
university keeps me very busy and so it becomes difficult to find time&motivation for complicated wargames, which explains the time without updates.
I hope I can continue in late December with some turns.
Regards
EvK

[xhoel]

ORIGINAL: EwaldvonKleist

Hi all,
university keeps me very busy and so it becomes difficult to find time&motivation for complicated wargames, which explains the time without updates.
I hope I can continue in late December with some turns.
Regards
EvK

I know that feeling! Good to hear the game is still ongoing. Looking forward to new updates

[Brandon_37]

Is this AAR dead? if you didn't have any time in the holidays I doubt you have time now.

[EwaldvonKleist]

Hi,
I am a student so the leisure-time time (if that makes sense) is March/August/September.
Regards
EvK

[EwaldvonKleist]

T15, 25.02.1943 after Axis operations
After a long RL-induced pause, game and AAR will continue.
The pocket South of Lake ilmen is liquidated, netting two divisions. Inspired by the Soviet low odds successes, the Germans try their luck as well, and fail. A failed attack is much worse for the Axis than for the Soviets due to loss ratios and guard status rules.
Few Axis movements along the rest of the Front. The low truck count dictates static warfare. The far South is reinforced with SS divisions, as the Soviets are pressing here. Due to their superiority in this sector, a straight line can't be maintained everywhere anymore. Instead, there are strong points spaced one hex apart, supported by low strength units in the rear. This is enough to keep infantry units and low strength mobile units in check. The downside: If the Soviets infiltrate the line, the must be counterattacked immediately, often with bad loss ratios.

[EwaldvonKleist]

T16, 04.03.1943 before Axis operations
As we enter March, weather turns to snow. Lower truck load due to less MP costs and significantly better truck repair rates improve the truck situation. In a turn or two, mobile operations will be possible again from a logistical POV. In addition, Fighter exports to Rumania have started.

The Soviets are surprisingly quiet this turn, only one successful attack. It seems they are shifting troops to other sectors, e.g. Leningrad.

[EwaldvonKleist]

T16, 04.03.1943 after Axis operations
The Leningrad area is reinforced with a Panzer division. This is the first time this sector actually absorbs reinforcements, instead of giving them to other fronts. The frontline there suits the Axis, as strong Red Army forces are bottled up in Leningrad behind strong fortifications and difficutl terrain. If possible, I want to keep it this way.

The Axis phase of this turn was bit of a failure. A combination of little mistakes on my part and good Soviet reserve activations cause some holds.
I wonder if it will ever be possible to retake the initiative which was lost due to the truck shortage. Although the Axis still wins more battles than the Red Army, it essentially waits for the next blows.

My opponent currently has turn 16, so you are up to date.

[xhoel]

Great to see this AAR continue!

[Rick402]

ORIGINAL: Telemecus

I have got used to using the Ctrl key with + and - for the first time with a browser to zoom in and out quickly - might be a useful tip for the reader

thank you for this tip, didnt even know of this trick!

[joelmar]

@EvK Nice to see your game continue [:)] is this game still on 1.11.03 or did you switch to 1.12.xx?

[EwaldvonKleist]

Thank you both for the interest. The game will continue with 1.11.03. 1.12.xx seems to be quite experimental, making it unattractive for a game that already has some time sunk in it, and frankly I do not have the motivation atm. to work through all the new changes.

[EwaldvonKleist]

T17, 11.03.1943 before Axis operations
No significant changes North of Bryansk. But from there to Rostov, the Soviets show activity, winning several battles. I continue to be somewhat frustrated by Soviet CV inflations. Almost all Axis corps and most of the attacked armies are below their command limit, and in most cases the Axis leaders have better leadership ratings. I had noted this difference already in the 1941 games, but in this stage of the war, it becomes more paramount. From my experience, low to intermediate exp/mrl have their CV understated by CV if their leader is at least decent, while high morale units have final CV much closer to the prediction.

Btw. zooming in the Browser also works by pressing Ctrl while rotating the mouse wheel.

[eskuche]

Oops, NADA. [:)]

[EwaldvonKleist]

After several RL-induced pauses I tried to get back into the game, but while working on T17 quickly found that playing WitE campaigns has somewhat lost its appeal to me. Therefore, my opponent (who felt a bit burnt out too) and me agree to end the game. I am sorry for ending the show here, but the time commitment required would be too much for something I don’t fully enjoy anymore.
I hope (and think) the AAR has been good entertainment to this point, and I certainly enjoyed writing it.

I would like to add some concluding considerations.

1) The StB defensive play in this game is quite different from all other defences I have played so far. The Axis side is defending, but unlike the Soviet side 1941/42, neither time nor the reinforcement schedule on its side. Furthermore, any space you give will likely be lost forever.

2) The AAR title is an allusion to one of the great strategical questions of the historical Axis defence in the East: defend stubbornly to keep the ground, or manoeuvre and look for opportunities to win battles and destroy enemy formations? I believe in the latter approach. The initial attacks were a battle against time because the Soviet army initially is unorganized and frozen. The unit kill count is 27 divisions and 7 brigades, almost a front worth of units. It should be mentioned that the leaky Stalingrad pocket in the beginning made all this much easier.
Unfortunately, the blizzard quickly damaged so many trucks that mobile warfare became difficult and forced me to shelve the manoeuvre plans in favour of a hold fast approach, even setting motorized units in static mode. I planned to return to mobile warfare when the weather improved.

3) After the successful break-out of the Stalingrad pocket, I was quite optimistic that the Axis can face the Soviet on equal terms in a static environment until at least spring/summer. This was a misconception for … reasons:
i) The Soviets are the slightly stronger side. Therefore, any destroyed fortification hurts the Axis more than the Soviets.
ii) The loss ratios and the replacement ratios mean that the Soviets can gamble on low odds attacks. If they fail, loss ratios are okayish, if the succeed, loss ratios are advantageous and an enemy fortification is successfully destroyed. Although the Axis can usually fill the gaps, increasing resources are spent on replacing fortification with raw CV, drawing strength away from counterattacks. This is possible because low morale/exp CV have higher variance and can therefore sometimes roll high.
The Axis can’t use the same strategy (even though destroying Soviet fortifications would be very nice to create counterattack threats) as the loss ratio is too bad.

4) Future plans I: My focus has always been to destroy Soviet manpower, an in line with this, the main plan going forward was a Kursk style battle for Velikie-Lukie to cut off the salient, commencing during first clear turn after the four April mud turns.


The timing is crucial:
i) The four mud turns give time to concentrate motorized units for the Northern pincer in the Demyansk area and the Southern pincer in the vicinity of Rshew. During other weather, the units could not be spared on the other fronts and their absence would more likely be spotted by Soviet intelligence.
ii) The turn after the first clear turn is mud and the pocket can rot for a turn without threats of counterattacks.
iii) Returing the mobile units to other crisis spots will take time. The mud-clear-flipflop limits the amount of damage the Soviets can do where the Axis elite is not.

The operation was already prepared by low-level attacks aimed at fort destruction around Demyansk and Rshew and preparation would have included decoy massings of split-up mobile units in clear area.
The offensive for sure would have been risky and its launch dependent on recon results.

5) Future plans II: Independently from the grandiose offensive plans, the summer would have seen defensive play around natural barriers with the aim to stay as far East as possible as long as possible.
Local counterattacks would have been used to take important defensive hexagons in order to achieve a frontline that:
i) Has Axis units in defensive terrain and the opposing unit not in defensive terrain.
ii) Is short and not in danger to be cut off due to salient
iii) Is closer to own rails than enemy rails.
iv) Has dense own hinterland (fallback lines and protection from enemy recon), while the enemy hinterland is clear (threatening Axis counterattacks and allowing for good recon)

The idea is to minimize the own necessary force (fortification&difficult terrrain, low uncertainty about enemy strength in the area, easy reinforcement) while maximizing the necessary enemy force (easy terrain, uncertainty about own strength, therefore requiring reserves for possible counterattacks, difficult reinforcement).

Of course this is an ideal only approached in praxis, but striving for this frees units that can be used actively or for sectors without defensive terrain, especially the South.
6) Thanks to my opponent Elma for the game. He is a reliable and (unlike me) quick player. I think he played a solid game and would have slowly but inevitably made the situation ever more uncomfortable for the Axis side. Improvements possible on the T1 Stalingrad pocket, and even more aggressiveness and attacking, especially because attacks deny the Axis reserves for counterattacks.

If I have forgotten some items, they will be added later.
<<Advertisement>>: My second AAR in the DC:B forum has been recently completed too: https://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.a ... 94&mpage=2 <</Advertisement>>

Thanks to all who read and commented in and on this AAR!
Regards
EvK

[Telemecus]

Great to see you back. WitE is a big beast that has given us all great joys. But it will never be for ever. Nevertheless you can be very proud of all you have given here and to the WitE community. Even this AAR as it is has shown the potential for this scenario as an alternative to the common 41 start one.

It does lead to the bigger question of history. Why did the Axis fight on? Did they fight on as that was the only alternative? They certainly knew it was not a war they could win, were they hoping for a draw or respectable loss?

[EwaldvonKleist]

Thanks

My short answer is like this: There was hope for a split between the Allies or a lucky turn of events. In addition the Nazi ideology and its most prominent proponent promoted an ideology of victory or complete destruction of the "Aryan race". By continuing the war, the Nazis were also able to stay in power and escape conviction/death for a bit longer. The of the population rest followed for many reasons, among them real support for the ideology or some of the Nazis' aims, fear of consequences of disobedience, opportunism, effective propaganda, insufficient initiative to act against the system, or no idea how to do it effectively.

[EwaldvonKleist]

Finally completed the German version of this AAR too for all Krauts who would like to read it in their native language: https://www.si-games.com/forum/showthread.php?t=30172