Feasibility Question

[Rondor11]

I am going to work on my first scenario and would like some input on it's feasibility/interest level.

The pitch is that 's now 2024 and Lebanon is still feeling the after-effects of the harbor explosion in August of 2020. During the ensuing months and years since the explosion, it has become obvious to the people of Lebanon and the international community that the stored explosive materials in the harbor for so long was the result of Hezbollah pressure and bribery of the country's politicians for future use against Israel. Hezbollah has since lost most of it's influence in the country.

The loss of Hezbollah's power in the country has upset both Iran and Syria and the war of words that has been brewing for the past 12 months is about to get red hot. Syria is about to annex Lebanon. Even Russia is licking it's lips since it's no secret that Putin covets a new naval base in the eastern Mediterranean.

Thoughts?

[BeirutDude]

I was actually considering designing a scenario along these lines myself. Some thoughts...

1. The conflict in/over Lebanon (and I say this as one who was caught in the Civil War) would largely be land and missile (Hezbollah). Command does a pretty poor job with land unit and that would be especially true in Lebanon where buildings and dug in positions are important. So keep most land combat to a minimal level and as necessary for any airstrikes/ missile strikes. Don't make ground combat the key to your scenario.

2. Certainly the possibility of the IAF and Syria mixing it up over Lebanon is there, but what is different than the current IAF campaigns over Syria itself against the Iranians/Syrians?

3. I can see an opportunity for USN/USAF strike in retaliation for some terrorist attack or WMD attack. That might draw a Russian reaction there from Khmeimim Air Base and the S-400 site. So there is a possibility.

4. There is the possibility of a hostage rescue. USMC MEU rescue from Beirut International Airport or the Beqaa/Bekaa Valley of American/Western citizens.

So yes, IHMO, there are options.

[BeirutDude]

The loss of Hezbollah's power in the country has upset both Iran and Syria and the war of words that has been brewing for the past 12 months is about to get red hot. Syria is about to annex Lebanon. Even Russia is licking it's lips since it's no secret that Putin covets a new naval base in the eastern Mediterranean.

On this, any annexation of Lebanon by Syria would almost certainly elicited an Israeli response. Again, not sure what would be different than the current Syrian-IAF engagements currently being fought over Syria.

Not sure which port Russia would use in Lebanon that is better for them then Tartus, Syria. Tripoli is rather small, Beirut a mess with a large city wrapped around it and not sure they would be able to place S-400s in Beirut to protect the port. BIA is a decent airport with new runways since I was there in 1983, but very vulnerable to attack from the sea. I think a decent scenario could have the Russians moving from Syria to Beirut with both the port and air base (but not sure they would even consider that).

Not really sure how Hezbollah is going to loose their power base through. The Lebanese Army and Hezbollah are currently at odds in Beirut and have actually had a few cashes in recent days. A spill over of the Syrian Civil War into a new Lebanese Civil War between the Army and Hezbollah with the West/Israel and Russia/Syria openly supporting both sides (respectively) is a possibility you might consider.

[Rondor11]

@BeirutDude Thank you very much for the advice and help. I appreciate the input greatly.

There is a lot to unpack here for sure. More research needed, no doubt.

[BeirutDude]

Good luck and best advice is start small. Maybe an IAF or USN air strike on a Hezbollah ground position with a SEAD escort. Something like that. Its easy to go overboard with C:MO.

[Rondor11]

I am, most definitely, a go overboard guy so I am very susceptible.

[Blast33]

Nice idea. The Syrian army quite busy with internal pressures.. Can they invade Lebanon?
Or is it with some Iranian help?

Please take these C-802s also into account for Hezbollah:
https://twitter.com/IranDrones/status/1 ... 1209277443

[BeirutDude]

Oh yeah, many folks just don't realize how well armed Hezbollah is. There are as some rumors they received some BUKs from Syria.