StB: The German Conquest of Leningrad, 1943?

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Beethoven1
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RE: StB: The German Conquest of Leningrad, 1943?

Post by Beethoven1 »

Turn 11, (Jan 28, 1943)

This is the first turn on tthe 1.02.08 beta pach. However, cameron88 forgot to upgrade, so he was on the 1.02.06 beta patch for this and a couple of subsequent turns before we realized.

The German interdiction is just too powerful.

On land, Malinovsky learned a hard lesson - thou shalt never attack an SS unit, even if you are attacking with a ridiculous number of Guards Rifle Corps and Rifle Corps decked out with 3 attached Rifle Brigades each.

Near Novgorod, two SS divisions similarly showed their prowess by routing and shattering 3 Soviet divisions, causing nearly universal Soviet casualties:

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Only one hex was succesfully attacked in the Leningrad area this turn, this one. First two Artillery divisions attacked by themselves:

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Followed up with a full-on attack with 275k men, 4k guns, and 159 tanks:

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These are the sort of massive, desperate attacks that occur every single turn in the nightmarish World-War-One Leningrad front.


The Velikie Luki sector was much more successful. Germany was taught a lesson - you cannot leave regiments defending any hex you want to hold, even if it is a swamp hex with a level 3 fort. You can also see the German position towards Pskov is blown open.

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Germany took back Velikie Luki. However, then during my turn I surrounded Velikie Luki and took it back. Since it was surrounded and the Germans had nowhere to retreat, they automatically routed. Similarly, in the hex to the north of VL where my 4=4 division is now, a German infantry unit was surrounded before being attacked, and then routed (took 2 attacks though on that one). So by the end of the turn, Germany had lost Velikie Luki and nearby hexes, and had quite a few routed units. This is one of the downsides of strong point defense, if you get surrounded, you can be routed. Germany clearly needs more troops here, but obviously they don't want to give up on the siege of Leningrad.

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Near Rzhev, I did an attack to take the swamp hex. I was hoping this would serve as an additional distraction to remind Germany not to totally neglect Rzhev in order to send more troops to Velikie Luki and Leningrad. However, the real reason for attacking it is that since I had so many Guards units in the reserve about to be deployed, I was about to need more good commanders in the Leningrad area. Since Bagramyan was headed up in that direction anyway, he might as well lead an attack along the way, since you can only go 50 MP per turn.


I take 2 light forest hexes to strengthen my flank defenses in the Kalinin salient:

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I attack some Italians across the river.

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Meanwhile Lelyushenko's Guards Army is also migrating towards the North/west. Lelyushenko has arrived on the outskirts of Velikie Luki. Since it is on the way, and since the Soviet troops near Voronezh have finally built up CPP (they start with 0 CPP in the scenario due to being unlocked), they are ready to attack some German regiments.

This will hopefully be another thing adding to the pressure, stopping German reinforcements from going to Leningrad and/or Velikie Luki.


In the Stalingrad area, I continue to hold a fairly defensive and cautious posture. Germany clearly has a lot of tank and motorized units still in the area, and while I do still have my tank and mech units, all my Guard infantry is gone. I am not entirely sure if Germany realizes yet at this point how many of my Guards Rifle Corps have suddenly disappeared. If they actually seriously attacked at this point, probably I would have to retreat back towards Stalingrad. However, the front line is very long for Germany, and despite their strong troops, they are overextended and need a shorter line to defend.

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However, Tolbukhin is creeping to the south with his 57th Army, which consists entirely of Guard Mechanized and Tank corps. In subsequent turns, I hope to have the option to use him to pose a threat to either seize Rostov, or...

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Or... alternatively perhaps Tolbukhin can pose a threat to the Germans in the Caucasus, which seem to be slow to retreat to a defensible line, and a bit overextended. That depends on how Germany handles things around Krasnodar in the subsequent turn or two:

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I should also mention that by this point, basically the entire Red Army, other than troops that are in the Leningrad or Velikie Luki sectors, is on 65% TOE or so, in order to make reinforcements go primarily to those areas. That limits the strength of my troops and ability to attack in other areas, however. Also, my strong support units like rifle brigades and tank brigades are basically all migrating over towards those areas as well.

On land, advancing is very costly, and the Red Army is getting smaller:

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In particular, German counterattacks are very powerful (with the artillery patch), but many attacks are also very costly, even if they are successful.

And in the air, the VVS continues to self-immolate over Lake Ladoga. For one turn, there is a relative respite. I forget the exact reason why, I think it might have been that I was cycling my planes or something so they did not have air miles to fly missions. However, I assure you that this is a temporary blip in the downward descent which will continue in subsequent turns:

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Also, I have been starting to disband a lot of fighter and bomber groups, in order to not have them all end up depleted, so that at least some of them can be at full strength with reinforcements. Trained pilots are all going to fighters.
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RE: StB: The German Conquest of Leningrad, 1943?

Post by Beethoven1 »

Turn 12, (Feb 4, 1943)

In the north, German SS divisions with Heavy Panzer Battalions counterattack near Novgorod, inflicting heavy losses on two guards Rifle Corps. Such is the power of SS divisions on the artillery patch. I take 2 other hexes, however. Newly arrived guards corps and divisions are visible behind the lines in the far north:

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More reinforcements are visible here. Most of these are going towards Leningrad, but some also towards Velikie Luki (in particular the Guards Airborne divisions). My troops near Pskov are weak, so as tempting as it is to try and rush towards Pskov, that would probably be pretty foolhardy and I try to expand the flanks of my salient first. ZOC reveal that he has some units in the area that appears empty, and of course the SS divisions could come down fairly easily to cut me off.

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Germany counterattacks near Velikie Luki, and I do some counter-counterattacks also.

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Lelyushenko does his thing against the regiments, and some strong units rout away Hungarians in that bridggehead I formed previously. I would have attacked the Voronezh area regiments earlier, but lacked CPP which has now built up. The combination of these should start to pose a significant threat against the German troops in the Voronezh area.

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Germany may be wondering what happened to all my troops, since they are doing some recon. I convert hexes with cavalry mostly, and then retreat back to safety so I can't be counterattacked too easily. The major part of the reason for my caution in advancing all throughout the center-south is how vulnerable I am to counterattacks on clear terrain, especially with the artillery patch.

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Germany recons here as well. Tolbukhin's tanks attempt to sneak down towards Krasnodar. Hopefully they are not seen and hopefully Germany doesn't recon there next turn. Tolbukhin is still also in position to go towards Rostov, however. They could go either way.

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RE: StB: The German Conquest of Leningrad, 1943?

Post by Beethoven1 »

Turn 13, (Feb 11, 1943)

More Guards reinforcements keep arriving and I take a few more hexes. German interdiction is increasingly unstoppable in the air.

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I keep up the pressure in Velikie Luki. Note that while I am constantly attacking, it is not always with the same troops. I am constantly cycling in additional divisions, which have high CPP and those do a lot of the attacking also. I am also constantly refitting (especially the Guards units), with reinforcements prioritized here and in Leningrad via TOE settings being lowered elsewhere.

The front line in the Velikie Luki salient keeps getting gradually longer, which should make it harder and harder for Germany to cover. A lot of the German troops are pretty weak, from having been repeatedly beaten up, especially the Luftwaffe and Security units. However, even the SS cavalry is relatively weak due to the fact that it was surrounded and routed at one point (the downside of strong-point defense is the risk of being surrounded).

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Some exploration around Orel and Voronezh to try to keep up some pressure and make the German situation there more tenuous. Also notice the HQ railed in - that is Rybalko's tank army. In addition to Lelyushenko's army migrating to the north/west, the same is true for many other assault front armies with good generals. So the southwestern front is now pretty much where the Western Front "should" be, and likewise the Western Front is where the Volkhov front "should" be.

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Slow bridgehead expansion, increasingly threatening Voronezh. Can Germany really trust Hungary to hold the flank? hmm.

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Slow advance near Rostov with cavalry leading the way, scouting, and flipping hexes. I suspect at least a decent # of the German mobile units may have left?

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In the Caucasus, no recon. I think Germany doesn't know that Tolbukhin is there. Germany counterattacks a weak division that I had left out. So I also leave out 2 more weak divisions this turn in exposed positions by themselves. Did I really need to put them there? No. However, if Germany is tempted to counterattack them, that probably means they won't be able to retreat very much. Which in this case, seems like it may not be an entirely bad thing... Tolbukhin's tanks need a turn to rest and get their movement points, fuel, and CPP up.

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RE: StB: The German Conquest of Leningrad, 1943?

Post by Beethoven1 »

Turn 14, (Feb 11, 1943)

In Leningrad, I take a hex, but Germany also takes back a hex. 377,000 Soviets, supported by 6000 guns, attack a single hex:

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This is the first turn where I was on the 1.02.11 patch. However, Germany was still on the 1.02.06 beta patch with the very strong artillery, apparently forgetting to upgrade, and this would remain the case for another turn or two until we noticed. Here's a German attack which you can see is on the beta patch. They took this hex, which then I took right back in the same turn:

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Germany bombed the hex a lot before attacking. As for me, I am not using any ground support or bombing, because ALL available planes and airfields have to be used for naval interdiction. Plus, of course it is blizzard, so should either of us really be flying that much at all?


As Germany was completing the retreat from Demyansk, he did a counterattack on the swamp hex. I was afraid he may have seen the units I had gathering behind in Demyansk. However, it turns out apparently he did not.

Germany also withdrew from Rzhev, which according to cameron88 was mostly because he was having supply problems there.

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Also, it is worth discussing the German withdrawal from Demyansk. Was it a good idea, or a bad idea? I think Germany might have ended up better off if they had either withdrawn from Demyansk at the very start of the game, or if they had stayed there. But withdrawing when they did seems like it was the worst of both worlds for the Axis, because it tended to free up my troops more quickly than the German troops, and I sent my troops down to mostly support the attack around Velikie Luki (with a smaller number also going to help form Guards Rifle Corps near Leningrad):

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The salient keeps getting bigger gradually, and I am now connecting additional rails and depots to support further expansion:

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Clearly my main effort is not in the center, but I am making the occasional attack with the long term goal of expanding and strengthening the salient. Because reinforcements are being prioritized to Leningrad though, I can only do so much here.

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Germany withdraws from Voronzh, I creep cautiously forward:

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Apparently Germany does still have quite a few mobile units near Rostov:

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And I move up to the river. Not so much to cross it in the immediate term, but to defend it.

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Why? Because in the Caucasus, the trap was sprung. I only had to attack two units here to clear the path for Tolbukhin's 57th Guards Mechanized Army. The Jungschultz Cossack Regiment was attacked twice (routed the 2nd time), and the Slovakian Mobile Brigade was attacked and forced to retreat to the south-east.

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This was a very good penetration of the line and half-encirclement, however, it would have been a lot better if I could have gotten one hex further and cut them off and/or taken the port. However, then I might have been detected, and also cameron88 later said he had some reinforcements on the way which might have been able to stop it:

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Would the Germans attempt a rescue attempt from Rostov? It was obviously a long way, so any such thing would be difficult. But they do have some strong looking units there, whereas most of mine are... not so much...

And how many of the German troops could I trap subsequently?
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RE: StB: The German Conquest of Leningrad, 1943?

Post by Beethoven1 »

Turn 15, (Feb 18, 1943)

Germany took back the same hex that they took back the previous turn and which then I had taken back from them:

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Then I tried to take it back again. This time my attack failed. The difference? Apparently I was attacking an SS division. And so we relearn a painful lesson - Thou Shalt Not Attack an SS division. Apparently any hex they want to sit on, we will have to go around. SS divisions are somewhat attackable on clear terrain without forts, but on Swamp/heavy forest/etc stacked with other units? Good luck with that.

And at this point, a legitimate question arises - am I losing more troops by attempting to break out Leningrad than I would lose by simply abandoning Leningrad and letting all the troops in Leningrad be captured? Perhaps... So maybe this is not really worth it.

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In the air, I have a lot more airfields completed, and am not starting to run into a different problem. Rather than not having enough airfields to deploy my planes for interdiction, I am starting to not have enough planes to deploy on my airfields for interdiction. I have plenty of bombers still (although not level bombers). But I am running low on fighters to escort them. I can only must 400 fighters this turn to deploy. The U-2s are broken out for naval interdiction though, along with IL-2s, so I have a lot of bombers. All of these bombers will bomb the 4 Italian Torpedo boats that are in Lake Ladoga. And they will do so every single day of every single week, until either they are shot down, or until Leningrad is relieved.

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Since the SS division moved out of Novgorod, it could now be taken:

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And south of Lake Ladoga, the various Guards units moved into their final jumping off positions. The Soviet front line south of Lake Ilmen appeared to be thin, with only one division on each hex. Perhaps because of this, the Germans reduced the number of divisions in Staraya Russa from one to two. Note that we now have both the Western Front and also the Southwestern Front in the Leningrad area/north.

The slow grind forward continued near Velikie Luki. More German troops were gradually appearing, but at the same time, the front they have to cover tends to keep getting a bit longer, bit by bit. Weak Luftwaffe and Security divisions continue to be favorite targets, but most of the German units here are fairly weak from repetitive attacks by this point:

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germany encircled 3 infantry divisions north of Orel. I broke them out, but at a painful cost of 713 AFVs. It's hard to conserve my AFVs for summer when I have to keep doing attacks like this:

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You can also notice some guards mechanized units from the Stalingrad front being railed up. Yep, with the Southwestern Front migrating towards Leningrad, we are about to end up with the Stalingrad front in the Moscow area...


Those Guards mech corps came from here. This part of the front is a bit thin these days. Germany did some recon presumably to spot the Guards mech, but it was here at the start of the turn, so they should have seen it:

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Germany counterattacks at Rostov, routing all my units (with the help of the beta artillery patch). Perhaps they have some hope of relieving the Caucasus:

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And in the Caucasus, the pocket is closed. This is the best encirclement I have ever gotten with Soviets, and it looks unlikely they can really break it. I gave Tolbukhin's tanks air supply to help raise their CVs.

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RE: StB: The German Conquest of Leningrad, 1943?

Post by Beethoven1 »

And then... A miracle occurred!

On turn 14, a miracle occurred. Or rather, a bug that happened to help me. Bug report is posted here (and the bug has apparently been confirmed and should be addressed thanks to Joel Billings' efforts).

re-posting some stuff from the bug report which provides some additional information of interest for the AAR:
On turn 13 of an StB scenario game, Leningrad had 25k freight stored:

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On turn 14, it jumped suddenly up to nearly 100k freight stored in Leningrad (which exceeds the supposed storage capacity of 60k, and no, a HQ didn't move to change the capacity):

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So it seems that somehow 75k additional freight suddenly appeared in Leningrad.

There were no other similar changes to the other depots in the cut-off Leningrad area:

Oranienbaum 6753 on T13, 5920 on T14
Kronstadt 11713 on T13, 11551 on T14
Osinovets 6925 on T13, 2188 on T14

And this has some more info on the state of the VVS. Our air losses are horrendous. [:)]
Incidentally, Axis naval interdiction seems quite OP and impossible to counter if Axis is willing to commit the Luftwaffe to it, though that is another issue, notice the VVS is almost out of planes except for those in the theater boxes by turn 14 of continually suiciding planes over Lake Ladoga in the middle of winter weather and having to build a ridiculous amount of airfields. I was gonna mention that in an AAR in the future, but may as well say so now since you have the saves here. Here's all the airfields I had to build:

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And The size of the respected Axis and Soviet air forces over time after running continuous full tilt interdiction. The only place the VVS is deployed is Lake Ladoga, because there are simply no planes and no possibility to use any air anywhere else. Axis has enough planes to use some elsewhere also though, apparently.

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And while I did somehow manage to barely not get Leningrad be interdicted in this one most recent turn, I highly doubt that will last, because I am down now to 329 fighters that are in either the reserve or on the map and which have experience of 45 or higher:

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There are some more fighters in theater boxes, which can't be used, and also 814 fighters with experience of 44 or less. I could use those inexperienced fighters rather than letting them train, but then I would just run out of fighters even more quickly, so... Repeatedly bombing the 4 Italian torpedo boats every weak, if Germany is willing to go full tilt on the naval interdiction, doesn't seem to be very sustainable. So seems to me like currently, if Germany knows what they are doing with interdiction and is willing to commit planes to it, if Leningrad is cut off in 1941, it should be doomed in any grand campaign. In this current StB game, I might end up being able to rescue Leningrad, but if I do it will only be because of the power of a ridiculous number of concentrated Guards Rifle Corps which all are filled to the brim with attached rifle brigades and each has 45k men.

And I am doing every trick I can think of to try and improve things slightly. For example, I have every plane under either the 8th or 16th Air Force, because those have slightly better leaders.
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RE: StB: The German Conquest of Leningrad, 1943?

Post by Beethoven1 »

empty post to get a new page to start, so there are not too many images on one page
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RE: StB: The German Conquest of Leningrad, 1943?

Post by Beethoven1 »

again
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RE: StB: The German Conquest of Leningrad, 1943?

Post by Beethoven1 »

^
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RE: StB: The German Conquest of Leningrad, 1943?

Post by Beethoven1 »

^
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RE: StB: The German Conquest of Leningrad, 1943?

Post by Beethoven1 »

Turn 16 (March 4, 1943)

I did 2 big attacks in the Leningrad area. Both of these were preceded by attacks by artillery divisions only to try to soften up the defenders. The first attack was a success and cost only 7,364 Soviet troops. Light casualties:

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The second attack 2 hexes further south was a failure. Here the human wave only lost 18,077 Soviet troops. It is too bad that this battle was in light forest. I was attacking with 350k men, so if it had been urban terrain, I would have easily won the battle and all the German defenders would have most likely routed and become depleted. But alas, it was light woods:

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Near Lake Ilmen, I unleashed my surprise attack and made a pretty good breakthrough. However, there was one division (123rd infantry) that I had to attack 4 times. It kept retreating to the wrong place and blocking my advance. On the fourth attack it finally routed, but without the combat delays from that I could have advanced a bit further. I hoped that this would relieve some of the pressure on the Leningrad area and force Germany to pull away some troops.

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Further south I did 4 attacks and made some slight further slow progress (all but one against Luftwaffe/security units):

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Near Rostov, I surrounded a Panzer division with a cavalry division and routed it. This cost Germany some vehicles from the Panzer division. However, I lost 100 AFVs moving a German infantry division out of the way to be able to do this:

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In the Caucasus, Germany managed to successfully push back one of my mech corps and temporarily break the pocket. However, the units holding it open were Romanians, so I was able to re-close it pretty easily with Tolbukhin's tanks:

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RE: StB: The German Conquest of Leningrad, 1943?

Post by Beethoven1 »

Turn 17 (March 11, 1943)

I launched another massive attack against the light forest hex. This time it fell (barely), after having been preceded by 10 separate artillery division attacks. It would be MUCH easier to have taken that hex if it were urban terrain.

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Somewhat to my surprise, Germany barely pulled back from the swamps south of my Staraya Russa breakthrough. As a result, I was able to encircle a couple of German units:

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Near Velikie Luki, the German defenses if anything were probably a bit weaker (with reinforcements probably going towards Lake Ilmen). So I was able to do a lot of attacks against mostly pretty weak units. The front line keeps getting ever longer and longer here, which should make it hard for Germany to cover. And with the Staraya Russa breakthrough, hopefully I should start to get some supply coming in from that single rail as well to help things out.

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Creep up to Orel, attack a regiment:

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Germany did some more attacks near Rostov, seemingly not yet having given up hope of somehow breaking out the Caucasus pocket. Or maybe they just like attacking my units sitting on clear terrain without much forts:

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I get one weak unit to surrender in the Caucasus. However, the others are stronger, with fairly high defensive CVs on forts in rough terrain:

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RE: StB: The German Conquest of Leningrad, 1943?

Post by Beethoven1 »

Turn 18 (March 18, 1943)

The relentless and increasingly desperate human wave assault trying to reconnect to Leningrad continues. There are not that many turns until mud will start. Attacks on one hex succeed (this one), attacks on two to the north fail. The Soviet casualties on the failed attacks are around 40,000, with 18k losses attacking one hex, and the other hex I attacked twice. It looks increasingly unlikely that it will be possible to break out Leningrad before mud hits. And in terms of the casualties I am taking, I will probably end up saving fewer men by breaking out Leningrad than the numbers that I am losing in these massive failed human wave assaults.

So I think the best strategy for Soviets in this scenario may be to simply let Leningrad die. However, I am fully committed and will not stop until Leningrad is freed, if for no other reason than to be able to see how long it will take and how much higher the cost will end up being.

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It is probably not really worth contesting the interdiction over Lake Ladoga either. As a result of the total destruction of the VVS over Lake Ladoga, we no longer even have enough fighters for the theater boxes. Here for example we are getting 5.55 out of 14.92 for the fighter contribution to the Northern Front ground theater box requirement. It is probably best to give up on interdiction if for no other reason than so the fighters can fulfill some of the theater box requirements. Bombers etc also fulfill a bit of theater box requirements, so that is probably also a better use of them:

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Germany breaks out some of the pocketed units, but not all, and I clear the small northern pocket (1 division and 1 regiment):

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The front line keeps getting longer... Germany manages to isolate a division near Smolensk. However, since it is already dead, I am able to use it to temporarily cut the double rail. The double rail to Pskov is also cut, and further south (out of the screenshot) the double rail between Vitebsk and Smolensk is also cut. However, the other double rail from Orsha to Smolensk is not cut. I don't see how Germany can really afford to let the situation keep deteriorating here, but nevertheless they are doing so. Mud will probably save them in a few turns though and give them a chance to build up forts.

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Near Orel, I surround some infantry divisions in clear terrain, and, since they have nowhere to retreat to, they then rout when I attack them. After they routed, I used tank brigades to further displace them 2 or 3 times. Some of the tank brigades are also suicided in the process in order to surround Orel. All the rails near Orel are pretty thoroughly cut, so this will hopefully lead to the fall of Orel before mud, at the cost of some tank brigades that are about to get whacked, hard:

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Rostov falls to direct assault across the river. It is so much easier to take a well fortified urban hex like this than to take the light forest, swamp, and heavy forest hexes in the Leningrad area:

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I am waiting a bit to clear the pocket in the hopes that the CVs will drop, since on 3 of the 5 hexes they are 100 or more:

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RE: StB: The German Conquest of Leningrad, 1943?

Post by Stamb »

Attack of an urban non isolated hex with lvl 3 fort across non frozen major river and 2.9k losses and some more disrupted units. Even against Rumanians. Looks fine [:-]
Слава Україні!
Glory to Ukraine!
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RE: StB: The German Conquest of Leningrad, 1943?

Post by Beethoven1 »

ORIGINAL: Stamb

Attack of an urban non isolated hex with lvl 3 fort across non frozen major river and 2.9k losses and some more disrupted units. Even against Rumanians. Looks fine [:-]

That's the Dnieper river you're talking about there. Just a minor puddle for our troops to hop across.

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RE: StB: The German Conquest of Leningrad, 1943?

Post by Beethoven1 »

Turn 19 (March 25, 1943)

I finally take this light forest hex, after 2 failed attacks on it the previous turn. However, the 2 previous failed attacks did lower the fort level to make this possible:

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So we are now only 1 hex away from Leningrad! But it is a hex too far! It's march 25, and the forecast for next week is heavy rain in the Leningrad area, which presumably will also mean heavy mud.

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Leningrad itself now has 70,000 freight left. Since around 75k was spawned in by a bug, if not for that bug, then we would now have 0 freight left, heading into mud season, and Leningrad would presumably be doomed as a result (at least if Germany could summon the units to attack while also being able to continue to defend). I have only 8k freight left in other depots in the isolated Leningrad area.


Some grinding and pocket clearing on the Lake Ilmen front:

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Germany left some gaps in the front in the last turn, which enabled me to surround a decent # of units. There is no real way these hold (held by many 1 CV brigades and divisions), but there are 2 Panzer divisions among the encircled units. Hopefully this will cause their morale to drop and make them easier to attack subsequently:

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The double rail to Pskov is also further cut, which one would think would hurt German supply near Leningrad. However, whatever impact it has will take some time to play out, and it is about to be mud.

After having taken Rostov, I realized I could probably similarly just directly take Orel by attacking it with a lot of men (even with inferior CV), and so I did. Orel fell and the German defenders were routed. Due to the pressure around Lake Ilmen and Velikie Luki, Germany seems to have been pulling some troops away from here. As a result, they had some pretty weak troops in the south-west corner of the salient. This enabled me to get a small breakthrough towards Bryansk/Roslavl. That helps make the front line even longer, which should make it still more difficult for Germany to find enough units to defend adequately everywhere:

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Germany took back the two hexes of my bridgehead other than Rostov itself. I am a bit afraid that they might be able to take back Rostov by direct assault simply by attacking it with a lot of men, so I put two rifle corps as well as a division in Rostov itself (same thing in Orel also).

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Germany brought down a Panzer division and tried an attack towards the encircled troops from the Taman peninsula. However, it failed. And even if it succeeded, I have Guards mech/tank corps behind in rough terrain with 100+ defensive CV. So although this pocket will be difficult to clear due to the rough terrain, that should also hopefully make sure it can't get broken out:

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RE: StB: The German Conquest of Leningrad, 1943?

Post by Beethoven1 »

Now a step back to look at the bigger picture as we enter mud season. The cost of attempting (and failing so far) to free Leningrad has been large. The Red Army has been steadily shrinking ever since we started attacking seriously in the Leningrad area (and Velikie Luki area). Meanwhile the total size of Axis forces seems to be pretty much steady despite the Stalingrad pocket:

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From the German side, cameron88 shared this screenshot showing that he has 88k German manpower in pool and 55k Hungarian, so it appears that German manpower is doing pretty well in the battle of attrition. I am a bit doubtful that Soviets, despite how much manpower they have, can really afford the losses it takes to break out Leningrad:

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Same general story with guns:

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And with AFVs:

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The size of my air force has stabilized in recent turns. But that is because I ran totally out of planes that were not in theater boxes, and over the last turn or two I have stopped deploying new planes at all, and just have been cycling out low experience air groups, so my total number of planes on the map is winding down.

It is strange that the size of the Axis air force has actually started going down now, but only after my air force was wiped out. The Axis air force size was stable during the time when I was most contesting the air over Lake Ladoga. Maybe it has to do with allied bombing in theater boxes or something, who knows.

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Beethoven1
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RE: StB: The German Conquest of Leningrad, 1943?

Post by Beethoven1 »

In Rosencrantus' AAR, he has a big picture view of losses as of turn 15. I thought it would be interesting to do a comparison of the losses in these 2 StB games:
ORIGINAL: Rosencrantus

As the scenario starts with 1,150,000 Axis losses and 1,400,000 Soviet losses, the overall fighting so far have costed me 531,637 combined Italian, Hungarian, Romanian, and primarily German losses. The Soviets have lost 1,136,850 men. About a 2.14:1 loss ratio. Am not sure how to feel about this but will try my best to increase the ratio for me once summer comes around.

For the air forces there is currently a 4.05:1 loss ratio, so very good. Especially if you compare the fact that the Soviets have lost around 5x more pilots than I did since so many of my losses were operational.

In this game, by comparison, Axis has lost 738,078 men and Soviets have lost 1,784,474 men. That is about a 2.42:1 loss ratio. This includes Axis losses in the Stalingrad pocket, but does not include the Axis troops currently isolated in the Caucasus which are likely doomed (about 80k men according to cameron88).

My higher losses are partly a result of attacking in the Leningrad area in bad terrain and taking heavy losses on many attacks. They are also partly a result of playing more with the artillery patch, and in particular the fact that for a good # of turns after I upgraded, Germany was still playing on the artillery patch, so that inflated my losses a bit.

My air losses are 10,523, whereas Axis air losses are 4,607, a ratio of 2.28:1. That ratio is definitely more favorable for Soviets than the 4:1 ratio in the Rosencrantus-tyronec game, so Germany HAS paid some price for the interdiction in Leningrad (lots of operational losses from flying in winter). However, the overall size of the Axis air force has not really shrunk, whereas the Soviet air force has been effectively destroyed except for theater box units and units unrelated to interdiction such as recon/transports. So it seems that (at least for now), Axis is much more able to sustain the air losses than Soviets. Perhaps that will change as Allied bombing ramps up, but does that really matter if by that point Leningrad has fallen?

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