Where the Iron Crosses Grow: K62 (Axis) vs Veterin (Soviet) GC41

[K62_]

In the Kiev sector it looks like the Soviets are trying to save the two units that got pinned last turn. The strong NKVD unit that was defending the city last turn has been replaced by a border guards regiment. The pinned infantry division near Pereyaslav did manage to successfully assault a Panzer regiment across the Dnepr, with some help; and both attackers subsequently pulled back a few hexes.

But it may have been a better idea to abandon these two units instead, and to retreat faster. The Soviet backfield looks rather sparsely defended:

AGS Kiev post recon.png (1.45 MiB) Viewed 2619 times

The 60th MD, freshly arrived on map, springs into action to push a strong rifle division out of a swamp, opening a gap in the enemy rear:

AGS battle DA swamp.png (1.76 MiB) Viewed 2619 times

The regiments that crossed the Dnepr last turn have very good MPs and advance through the gap to meet PG2 forces, closing a sizable pocket:

AGS Kiev closing pocket.png (1.88 MiB) Viewed 2619 times

Finally a few more Soviets divisions are detected and pocketed among the swamps. Two motorized regiments even capture Poltava and secure a bridgehead against Kharkov:

AGS Poltava final.png (2.12 MiB) Viewed 2619 times

The big Kiev pocket is not super secure as forces within it are not pinned down and, depending on MP rolls, the Soviets may be able to momentarily reopen it next turn. I doubt any major units can escape, though.

[K62_]

11th Army captures a lightly held Odessa:

AGA battle Odessa.png (1.23 MiB) Viewed 2617 times

The pockets in this area are reduced by Romanians. It may seem like they're using excessive force, but this is intentional. I have found that the Romanian units fight a lot better at 50 morale, and it only takes 3-4 wins to get them there. After 3 turns of combat there are already 3 divisions that have improved from 45 to 50, and I'm anticipating half a dozen more to reach that milestone next turn.

AGA battle Rom xp.png (943.83 KiB) Viewed 2617 times

11th Pz takes Nikolaev with a bit of help from air and SUs:

AGS battle Nikolaev.png (1.77 MiB) Viewed 2617 times

Finally the advance against D-town continues against minimal opposition:

AGS D-town final.png (1.49 MiB) Viewed 2617 times

[K62_]

OOB and manpower pool:

oob.png (446.92 KiB) Viewed 2612 times

manpower.png (452.18 KiB) Viewed 2612 times

Despite the rapid rate of advance, supply continues to be excellent for all armies, with only the air force feeling a bit of a strain:

logistics army freight.png (449.55 KiB) Viewed 2612 times

Here is a snapshot of freight received at all depots on the center rail. (The density of red lines is an indication of how many units got supplied from that depot.) It all adds up to about 38,000 tons of freight, which is not bad for just one double rail line. The completion of a feeder line into Vilnius should reduce congestion next turn and hopefully lead to continued excellence for the railway service:

rail depot supply received center 38k.png (2.8 MiB) Viewed 2612 times

[K62_]

RAD repairs continue to progress well. If you squint a bit you can count 9 RADs deployed, as the Norwegian units arrived on map this turn. XXXIV Corps is withdrawn from the fighting and assigned the two new labor detachments:

rail RAD repair.png (1.6 MiB) Viewed 2608 times

In the center, FBD 2 and FBD 3 combine efforts to bring rail all the way to Gomel. FBD 4 has turned south to fix the Minsk - Brest-Litovsk connection, which is also being repaired by RADs at the other end:

rail FBD repair AGC.png (2.62 MiB) Viewed 2608 times

In the south, FBD1 and the Romanian Rail Command work together to connect the level 2 railyard at Vinnitsa this turn. The Romanians only add a couple of hexes, but it's just enough to reach the important rail centers each turn instead of slightly missing them (Proskurov last turn and Vinnitsa currently). In all probability the southern rail will reach the important level 2 railyard at Fastov next turn.

rail FBD repair AGS.png (1.84 MiB) Viewed 2608 times

[K62_]

My respected opponent has chosen to concede the game at this point. He highlighted several reasons for his decision: the early capture of Bryansk, a notable absence of Soviet units south of Orel, and having 300,000 men isolated in pockets.

From my perspective, while the Axis side has established an advantage, we are still far from the 700 VPs needed for an immediate victory. Notable gains include Bryansk, which is transitioning into a significant logistical hub. I expect rail conversion to reach Bryansk by T6, and by T8, it should serve as a super depot with sufficient capacity to supply an attack on Moscow by the entire Army Group Center. Here is the general strategy for this advance, where two Panzer Groups (indicated by green and cyan arrows) will navigate the open terrain up to the Oka river and, following this, infantry units (represented by blue arrows) will ideally grind forward during the late-summer campaign to close the gap into Moscow:

AGC plan.png (2.12 MiB) Viewed 2574 times

In the north, progress towards Leningrad might be slow if the Soviets deploy substantial forces. The Axis strategy aims to compel them to commit. Both the 16th and 18th Armies are at full strength and primed for significant action, while Panzer Group 4, although slightly weakened, remains available for any breakthrough opportunity.

In the south it sounds like it's full speed ahead because of the scarcity of Soviet units. Based on my experience, the Axis has the logistical means to secure Stalingrad and Maikop by September, if the Soviets are unable or unwilling to fight here. Panzer Group 1's swift movement can further be supported by sea freight via Nikolaev or Kherson and the deployment of most Axis transport aircraft. The addition of long-range Italian transports after turn 8 also boosts this effort. If Stalingrad is captured, Astrakhan's defenses may become problematic due to its typically mild climatic conditions.

However, this game is unforgiving to even minor errors, particularly for the Axis side. I've witnessed instances where minor oversights or a lack of planning resulted in major setbacks, such as the isolation of an entire Panzer Group, which then significantly impeded Axis advances. While I try hard to avoid such incidents, I acknowledge the possibility of making mistakes that could have granted my opponent a chance for a formidable comeback. The Soviets also have some short-term advantages, such as over 500k men in reserve that can be deployed quickly to the threatened areas, and the impending bad weather, which may well mess up logistics for both AGN and AGC.

I'd like to extend my appreciation to Vet for an engaging and enjoyable game.

[Veterin]

Well played K62. I was completely outmatched from the very first turn of the game!

That T1 opener is insanely strong! Losing pretty much the entire S and SW front is almost guaranteed regardless of what the Soviet does. Similarly, getting all the way to Vitebsk on T1 really limits what Soviets can do to defend. The landbridge and Dnepr river would be suicidal if i tried contesting either for example.

I certainly was not expecting the Kiev pocket that turn. This was how my limited defence was placed on turn 3 and i certainly didnt think you'd have the MP's to close the pocket.

1.png (1.39 MiB) Viewed 2528 times

[HardLuckYetAgain]

The doubling up the rail repair makes a huge difference on depth of penetration. I put that up on the top of the list since I believe JB did that too going towards Smolensk in our game. Early game the Soviets have to be able to sacrifice units to "try" in slow down the advance. Guess poorly where that thrust is and the result may not be pretty.

Grats to both of you on your game.

[EwaldvonKleist]

Thanks for the AAR-entertainment and congrats to both.

How would you estimate your chances as Soviet player against your opening&logistics&tactics @K62?

[K62_]

How would you estimate your chances as Soviet player against your opening&logistics&tactics @K62?

Not sure, I haven't played Soviet in a long time.

[jasonbroomer]

Great ARR and congratulations on a swift victory.

Running high supply priority entails high unit truck use, which reduces MPs. How do you get around this?

What sort of trucking losses did you suffer?

[EwaldvonKleist]

Not K62, but consider:
1) Truck losses are a mid to long term concern, SL4 benefits come almost immediately.
2) Faster initial advance=more Soviet trucks captured
3) Fast initial advance, well supplied attacks and good MP=Soviets are outflanked, which reduces the number of battles. If you look at unit supply needs, you note that ammunition weighs the most and is quickly consumed during battles. The number in the unit detail window actually obfuscates the true severity of ammunition consumption, since the unit draws more pre-battle from nearby depots.. If you are only advancing but not fighting, you save a lot of supply consumption.

Taken together, SL4 might even save trucks, but K62 has to answer this.


IRL Soviet counterattacks in 1941 often were failures, but they forced the Wehrmacht to use ammunition and thus reduced transport capacity left for fuel&spare parts to advance. This dynamic creates nother case of the rich getting richer:

Enemy unit destroyed->space to manoeuvre&less ammo use->enough fuel for deep advance->more outflanking, more pockets->more enemy units destroyed etc
This is one of the reasons why IRL and ingame snowball effects are so powerful. Years of war with a mediocre opening will achieve less than a few months with a great opening, as a recent invasion has again demonstrated.

[56ajax]

7k on T1, wow, thought I was doing ok bagging 5800. Any chance you would share your air directives?

I'm happy to share my air setup but don't want to bore anyone to death with it. You have to be aware that I'm using some 50 ground attack directives and need to move around 50 air groups in preparation. Also you won't get the best results unless you're willing to adjust flight paths on a good number of those directives. If people are indeed interested, I'm happy to post a thread in the War Room (as it would take way too much space on this AAR).

I'm interested thanks

[homer82]

Very smart play, thanks! What was your truck situation at the end, K62?

[Galachaesli]

Great AAR, thank you for the effort

[loutro]

At that point you need to reduce it below priority 4. However, don't EVER reduce any depot east of Berlin to 0 (ports excluded).

Can you expand on that? Doesn't this keep some supply in those depots that could be used at the front?

[HardLuckYetAgain]

At that point you need to reduce it below priority 4. However, don't EVER reduce any depot east of Berlin to 0 (ports excluded).

Can you expand on that? Doesn't this keep some supply in those depots that could be used at the front?

“East” of Berlin is the way the supply goes east

[loutro]

Well I know that…but why never set a depot to 0 east of Berlin? Doesn’t setting a depot to 1 hold supply in that depot? Why have depots in Poland set at 1 in ‘41-‘42?

[K62_]

Well I know that…but why never set a depot to 0 east of Berlin? Doesn’t setting a depot to 1 hold supply in that depot? Why have depots in Poland set at 1 in ‘41-‘42?

Most real-life logistical systems use intermediate depots and WitE2 does a good job of simulating this. Priority 1 depots don't take any freight from priority 4 depots as they get supplied last during the logistics phase. Instead they accumulate residual freight that can't make it directly to the front-line depots. They will forward this freight in future turns. The effect is minor initially, but by the time you reach Moscow and/or Rostov you'll probably get a lot more freight from intermediate depots than directly from the NSS.

The reason this works is that, over congested rail lines, it's more efficient for freight to make 2-3 shorter trips than one big trip in a single turn. Some people use a method called "pumping" by which they fill up a few intermediate depots and then empty them. This can be quite effective but it's a little complicated to do properly. Simply setting all intermediate depots to priority 1 gives you a large degree of automatic "pumping" without requiring any further attention.

[K62_]

Very smart play, thanks! What was your truck situation at the end, K62?

The truck situation was pretty good. I didn't take a snapshot of losses but here is the T4 turn summary:

turn summary.png (328.08 KiB) Viewed 1863 times

If you add it all up I have about 4k less trucks than on T1, which is a 1% loss. But I did have 22k in repair, which yields 1k per turn, and was also set to capture a few thousand from pockets. Trucks were not going to be a problem anytime soon. In fact, manpower losses at 1.7% were a bigger concern than truck losses.

Also everything that EvK said about trucks is accurate.

[loutro]

Well I know that…but why never set a depot to 0 east of Berlin? Doesn’t setting a depot to 1 hold supply in that depot? Why have depots in Poland set at 1 in ‘41-‘42?

Most real-life logistical systems use intermediate depots and WitE2 does a good job of simulating this. Priority 1 depots don't take any freight from priority 4 depots as they get supplied last during the logistics phase. Instead they accumulate residual freight that can't make it directly to the front-line depots. They will forward this freight in future turns. The effect is minor initially, but by the time you reach Moscow and/or Rostov you'll probably get a lot more freight from intermediate depots than directly from the NSS.

The reason this works is that, over congested rail lines, it's more efficient for freight to make 2-3 shorter trips than one big trip in a single turn. Some people use a method called "pumping" by which they fill up a few intermediate depots and then empty them. This can be quite effective but it's a little complicated to do properly. Simply setting all intermediate depots to priority 1 gives you a large degree of automatic "pumping" without requiring any further attention.

Ok that makes a lot of sense. Thank you.