Sailing in harms way: InHarmsWay (J) vs Andav (A) Scen2

[InHarmsWay]

Admiral Harmasaki steps into Combined HQ and surveys the assemblage of senior officers present. A hush falls over the room as he begins to summarize the past year.

"Gentleman, it has been a year of excitement and disappointment both. Our initial expansion went as planned, however over the past several months we have been bogged down in some theaters, lost the initiative in others and some areas have gone quiet, too quiet in my experience. With that I will start the briefing with the status of our economy, which is ultimately the key to our survival. Make no mistake here, only with the utmost effort can we hope to parry the allied economic juggernaut! We will then move to a discussion theater by theater, then finish with a projection of future plane and ship reinforcements and future operations."

"The current economy can be summed up as follows. Average. On the plus side, we captured the key oilfields mostly intact and early, and have been able to move resources back to the HI without any issues. Credit should go to all the nameless logistics officers among us, and unsung yet vital skill set that frankly am not good at!"

With that a staff officer circulated top secret copies of a summary of the overall economy.

Dec 09 1942 Economy summary.jpg (199.32 KiB) Viewed 356 times

HI on Dec 9 1942.png (117.67 KiB) Viewed 356 times

As you can see, we are significantly behind target in stockpiling our HI, however I feel this was worth it as we accelerated our vehicle and engine productions significantly. The engine acceleration has allowed us to now more quickly research future airframes that our engineers say will greatly help our valiant pilots. Even now, we are seeing benefits for planes utilizing the Ha-35, Ha-45, Ha-60, and Ha-33 engines. A more contentious decision was made to halt production of the BB Musashi, and repurpose the resources into accelerating the CV Unryu and CV Amagi. In addition, the CV Taiho has been accelerated somewhat. I hope that all three CVs will arrive mid year '43.

Looking at stockpiles of resources and oil in the Home Islands, my staff officer, Major Witptracker Takagi informs me that as of today, we have 383 days of oil inventory, 79 days of resources and 266 days of fuel on hand. This has been going slowly up and we need to continue this trend as long as possible. More worrisome is the amount of supplies currently held in the HI. We only have 1,713,489 tons of supplies. This has not built up as much as I want, mainly due to the draw to prosecute the liberation of China from the corrupt Chinese leadership.

Questions gentleman before we continue reviewing each theater?

[RangerJoe]

If he has no units in Daly Waters, then paradrop on it. You have now cut off his supply route and his units will quickly run out, especially if they are bombed and/or bombarded.

At Derby, you can resupply using Fast Transports where all of the ships will bombard the enemy units, including ships not carrying supplies. That includes battleships . . .
edit: I do believe that also forces the enemy units to bombard your units . . .

[InHarmsWay]

RangerJoe, good idea on the Fast Transports! Will do that. Unfortunately he has Daly Waters garrisoned, so no paratroopers there. We have both done that to each other over the years so it is a known attack and we both now garrison.

I actually think that he is feinting here in Australia to make me pull more of the IJN down south and out of the picture for where his next move is. His units marching to Darwin have been stopped, and any of his navy that moves around exmouth toward Darwin from the west will be spotted (I hope). We will see, but I keep thinking he will be moving on Ceylon soon. It is what I would do to open up that front more. Adm Wa has extensive land units in India / Burma and I expect him to keep pushing there... Given all this, I may sail KB here in a few days, it is busy getting brand spanking new Jills...

[InHarmsWay]

Admiral Harmasaki looks around the room and then began to unveil a map of China. "Looking at China first. Chungking and Chengtu are key. We just received word that our attack in Chungking went was partially successful. Forts have now dropped to 1, and we almost had a 2-1 result. I expect the push over the next 2-3 months will be to finish off Chungking, move to Chengtu, then finish off the isolated Chinese cities still not liberated from their Chinese overlords.

Dec 09 1942 China.jpg (822.84 KiB) Viewed 322 times

By early '43 we should be moving non Chinese HQ'ed units over to Burma to strengthen that area and clear out the Burma Road. For now Gentleman, we will concentrate on bombing the two main cities. I realize that we have made several key strategic errors in China. We should have brought more units out of Korea, particularly arty, engineer, and armor units. Increase air campaigns (with increased production of 2E bombers) should have been ordered, and more of a focus on surrounding Chinese units. The error is mine, but we still have time to fully liberate China if we focus!

For those interested in the latest attack on Chungking, below is an abbreviated summary:
--------------------------------

Ground combat at Chungking (76,45)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 114641 troops, 1347 guns, 635 vehicles, Assault Value = 3812

Defending force 141300 troops, 233 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 2097

Japanese adjusted assault: 2757

Allied adjusted defense: 1379

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 1 (fort level 2)

Japanese Assault reduces fortifications to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(+), supply(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
4588 casualties reported
Squads: 20 destroyed, 639 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 50 disabled
Engineers: 2 destroyed, 118 disabled

Allied ground losses:
14114 casualties reported
Squads: 301 destroyed, 470 disabled
Non Combat: 170 destroyed, 567 disabled
Engineers: 2 destroyed, 14 disabled
Guns lost 10 (7 destroyed, 3 disabled)
Units destroyed 3

[RangerJoe]

If at all possible, take Chengtu without destroying the units before Chungking. That way the destroyed units don't show up at Chengtu 30 days or so after Chungking falls. That could slow your attacks down just a little bit.

edit:
I just looked at the map again with the AVs showing. If nothing else, wreck the forts at both places so they can both be liberated with 30 days of each other.

[PaxMondo]

Admiral Harmasaki steps into Combined HQ and surveys the assemblage of senior officers present. A hush falls over the room as he begins to summarize the past year.

"Gentleman, it has been a year of excitement and disappointment both. Our initial expansion went as planned, however over the past several months we have been bogged down in some theaters, lost the initiative in others and some areas have gone quiet, too quiet in my experience. With that I will start the briefing with the status of our economy, which is ultimately the key to our survival. Make no mistake here, only with the utmost effort can we hope to parry the allied economic juggernaut! We will then move to a discussion theater by theater, then finish with a projection of future plane and ship reinforcements and future operations."

"The current economy can be summed up as follows. Average. On the plus side, we captured the key oilfields mostly intact and early, and have been able to move resources back to the HI without any issues. Credit should go to all the nameless logistics officers among us, and unsung yet vital skill set that frankly am not good at!"

With that a staff officer circulated top secret copies of a summary of the overall economy.

Dec 09 1942 Economy summary.jpg
HI on Dec 9 1942.png

As you can see, we are significantly behind target in stockpiling our HI, however I feel this was worth it as we accelerated our vehicle and engine productions significantly. The engine acceleration has allowed us to now more quickly research future airframes that our engineers say will greatly help our valiant pilots. Even now, we are seeing benefits for planes utilizing the Ha-35, Ha-45, Ha-60, and Ha-33 engines. A more contentious decision was made to halt production of the BB Musashi, and repurpose the resources into accelerating the CV Unryu and CV Amagi. In addition, the CV Taiho has been accelerated somewhat. I hope that all three CVs will arrive mid year '43.

Looking at stockpiles of resources and oil in the Home Islands, my staff officer, Major Witptracker Takagi informs me that as of today, we have 383 days of oil inventory, 79 days of resources and 266 days of fuel on hand. This has been going slowly up and we need to continue this trend as long as possible. More worrisome is the amount of supplies currently held in the HI. We only have 1,713,489 tons of supplies. This has not built up as much as I want, mainly due to the draw to prosecute the liberation of China from the corrupt Chinese leadership.

Questions gentleman before we continue reviewing each theater?

Economy isn't too bad, pretty much what I expected to see. Your HI and Supply are a bit low, but you spent them on Engines and VEH ... a conscious decision. Yes, you get benefits from that expense, and Yes it is more than most IJ players would spend, BUT it isn't irrational or bad. We'll see how it plays out.

Everything revolves around supply for IJ. HI, ARM, VEH, NSY, Engines, AC ... all takes supply. So everything competes for supply.

Example: VEH. Everyone loves more VEH, more VEH means more tanks, and ARM is crucial in battles. Being able to replace them is crucial, so your first reaction is build more VEH, and if 120 is good, then 180 must be better, and then why not 220? 250? The answer is that in '45 you no longer have any supply for replacements ... the 180K supply that you spent on VEH would mean 2 more months (or more) of defensive fighting instead of just rolling over due to no supply. This is exactly what has happened in a number of AAR's ... so ....

long time ago, Mike and me, we came up with the 4M supply goal: need to have at least 4M supply in the bank by end of '43 to be able to last through war end. Then those nasty AFB's, they came up with bombing tactics to destroy our supply reserves, and suddenly 4M isn't enough. You need more like 5M, and you have to be really, really tricky in hiding your supply around the HI so it just doesn't get bombed out.

You're at just over 5M at end of '42 which is a good sign. Of course, you have a lot of battles to fight in '43 and most importantly, you have a LOT of AC factories to build, right? Your end game AC factories. Roughly speaking, over 1000 factories to be built. Prolly more engines yet to support them.

Still, you are looking pretty good all things considered.

[PaxMondo]

If at all possible, take Chengtu without destroying the units before Chungking. That way the destroyed units don't show up at Chengtu 30 days or so after Chungking falls. That could slow your attacks down just a little bit.

edit:
I just looked at the map again with the AVs showing. If nothing else, wreck the forts at both places so they can both be liberated with 30 days of each other.

RJ,

This was discussed earlier, above. He's in a bit of a pickle and knows it. It looks as if he is going to try and finish CK and then move on up to finish in Chengtu. Backwards, but it's how he setup to start. It can still work, just going to be more $$$$.

Adm Harmasaki: Do you know what forts Chengtu has yet?

[PaxMondo]

...

For those interested in the latest attack on Chungking, below is an abbreviated summary:
--------------------------------

Ground combat at Chungking (76,45)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 114641 troops, 1347 guns, 635 vehicles, Assault Value = 3812

Defending force 141300 troops, 233 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 2097

Japanese adjusted assault: 2757

Allied adjusted defense: 1379

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 1 (fort level 2)

Japanese Assault reduces fortifications to 1

One more attack, two at the most should do it here. Great job!!

Then the quick move up to Chengtu .... as RJ notes, best if you can get the forts in Chengtu down to 2 or 3 before you take CK .... if you can't, you can't, but it will be another slugfest then ... which eventually you will win. And of course, you get all of those VP's to harvest again ....

[InHarmsWay]

RangerJoe, yes, mistakes were made.... now I am dealing with the hand I dealt myself!

[PaxMondo]

RangerJoe, yes, mistakes were made.... now I am dealing with the hand I dealt myself!

Yeah, but it is recoverable. You just really want to hustle up to Chengtu from CK when it falls ...

Do you know what the forts at Chengtu are yet?

[InHarmsWay]

Adm Harmasaki continued to look over the officers in the room. "Now on to the Burma front, things are progressing well as Adm Wa is pushing further into Burma, lengthening his supply line while we await George production
(which is expected Dec 20th) and the switch to a major air counterattack...As most here will remember, we came very close to taking Calcutta earlier in the year, and it was a near run thing that our opponents were able to rush reinforcements in only days before we attacked. I made the decision to strategically withdraw our units back to Burma and not risk losing units so early in the war by being trapped. This was supported by the Emperor and despite what some of the more aggressive member here feel, it is not a retreat, but to lay a trap for the allies... Remember, plans must change to account for the enemy, only a fool continues forward blindly after running into a door.

The Allies have concentrated what feels like a large portion of their forces here pushing us back and I expect this to continue. Plans are place to counterattack any push in the the Bay of Bengal and Ceylon. If our opponent gives us another week, we will likely sortie and try and disrupt any plans on his part. More to come shortly. For now, I have indicated the planned front line we hope to hold. Reinforcements from China should be available in 1Q of '43, but care MUST be taken not to be outflanked by landings in Burma or further down in Malay.

Dec 9 1942 Burma.jpg (689.94 KiB) Viewed 265 times

For those wondering still on the China front, a spoiling attack has been ordered to determine the fortifications we will face in Chengtu. Everyone in Chungking is resting for the final push.

[PaxMondo]

...

The Allies have concentrated what feels like a large portion of their forces here pushing us back and I expect this to continue. Plans are place to counterattack any push in the the Bay of Bengal and Ceylon. If our opponent gives us another week, we will likely sortie and try and disrupt any plans on his part. More to come shortly. For now, I have indicated the planned front line we hope to hold. Reinforcements from China should be available in 1Q of '43, but care MUST be taken not to be outflanked by landings in Burma or further down in Malay.

Yeah, I agree, he may be ripe for a counter landing west of Calcutta and then attack east ... just watch for US forces. That's your only concern. If he is splitting them between OZ and India, you should be ok, but if he is focusing them all in India, and he has moved a lot of them .... potentially not so good for you.

It's a balancing act ... The US has great (and vast) air and naval forces in the Pacific ... limited land forces though. If your opponent commits the US heavily to India, you need to be careful, but this can work in your favor. If he isn't in India, then hopefully you will see him in OZ. If not there, beware! Basically in '43 you want to know where the US forces are: only 3 places in broad strokes:
- India
- OZ
- prepping to attack you

The last one is what you are trying to prevent. You want to keep the initiative, have him react to you. Once the US is on the initiative, you are in trouble ... you must collapse your empire quickly because you cannot cover Hokkaido AND SE Asia with the KB at the same time. So, you have to shrink your empire size quickly to what the KB can cover in 2 days, 3 days max, and you have to shade towards Hokkaido because the northern attack route is shortest, fastest, and "best-est" for the US.

This is why you hate to give up the initiative .... but it does require 2 to play that game ... the best allied players ignore everything except attacking the HI because that is harder to stop that most players think after about 6/43 .... read the greyjoy v rader AAR ... one of the best ever.

While you have the initiative, you pillage everywhere you can. Get everything (oil, fuel, supply, resources) back to the HI, or near to. Keep him reacting to you, sending his US forces all over. Prevent him from saving and concentrating them .... That's the goal ... if you can "stall" him until '44 (the deeper, the better) you stand a good chance to win ...

[InHarmsWay]

Great comments PaxMondo. I have started a spreadsheet now of where I have seen US LCUs. Some are in India from my memory, and some are in Australia at the moment.

[InHarmsWay]

Now on to Australia. Things are heating up a bit on this front. For the first time, the enemy just sent over some spoiling 2E bombing runs at Port Moresby. CAP based in Buna claimed ~4 shot down for now losses. Our counterattack East of Katherine was able to push back a weakened Aussie regiment (8th Aus ID / C). This now threatens his flank at Katherine, and may make the allies rethink the attack over at Derby, which is about 800AV in strength. We will see if there is any movement in the next few days.

Longer term, IJA high command has come to the acceptance that further pushes into Australia are not needed so long as we can hold significant allied troops in contact, at the end of their supply lines, and by maintaining air superiority, particularly once the new Georges come online! A limited push to take Daly Waters may even be in the cards if some of the more hot headed junior officers have their wish...

Dec 11 1942 North Australia status.jpg (576.14 KiB) Viewed 229 times

[PaxMondo]

...
Longer term, IJA high command has come to the acceptance that further pushes into Australia are not needed so long as we can hold significant allied troops in contact, at the end of their supply lines, ...

A lot of Aussie forces are restricted, they can only fight in OZ. You would prefer NOT to fight them as they cannot hurt you otherwise and he gets the benefit of using what are otherwise total waste of supply for him ....

So, have a target (meaning supply/oil/fuel, but mostly supply) in mind or bail .... that's my thoughts ....

[RangerJoe]

...
Longer term, IJA high command has come to the acceptance that further pushes into Australia are not needed so long as we can hold significant allied troops in contact, at the end of their supply lines, ...

A lot of Aussie forces are restricted, they can only fight in OZ. You would prefer NOT to fight them as they cannot hurt you otherwise and he gets the benefit of using what are otherwise total waste of supply for him ....

So, have a target (meaning supply/oil/fuel, but mostly supply) in mind or bail .... that's my thoughts ....

A lot of those restricted units disband and their devices go into the pools. So destroying those units is a good thing to do. If any of those units that disband have disabled devices, then 50% of those devices are lost.

From Broome, Fast Transport TFs can resupply Derby while also bombarding the enemy units. I do believe that this also forces the enemy to counter bombard as well which means after they have received damage from naval bombardments and/or aerial bombing.

[InHarmsWay]

Intel has fortifications pegged at Chengtu at 5. Alot of brave men and a few dozen tankettes were lost getting that information! It will be a slog, I have starting transitioning a few units from Chungking to Chengtu given Chungking will fall in the next attack or two at most.

For plans with Australia, fast transports are now enroute. Longer term, high command will pull back to Darwin only and leave a ~200-300 AV (low exp units) there to die in place at some point. My estimate is that will be later in 1Q of '43. I worry about a landing in the DEI that would unhinge any defense in Australia. Currently I am just harvesting points and holding down allied units. Only when the attrition rate begins to equal out will I pull back. Have killed 2 units outright, and he seems to be having trouble with getting supplies up there.

So far, US LCUs identified in northern Australia include: 1st Marine rgmt and 2 TD btlns at Katherine. Ground attacks have been ordered to gain recon on other units.

[PaxMondo]

Intel has fortifications pegged at Chengtu at 5. Alot of brave men and a few dozen tankettes were lost getting that information! It will be a slog, I have starting transitioning a few units from Chungking to Chengtu given Chungking will fall in the next attack or two at most.

OK, not too bad. You might get it before too many units from CK reappear at Chengtu. Forts 5 is a LONG way from Forts 9, your first few attacks will be critical. If you can get enough moved fast enough, you might break it with 2 or 3 attacks ... depends upon the AV there right now ... because in 30 days a whole bunch more will join, but by then you will hopefully have Fort 2 or less ....


BANZAI!!!!!

[PaxMondo]

So, has CK fallen yet?

[InHarmsWay]

Chungking has not fallen yet. Working through the turn this weekend. I have ordered a deliberate attack to go in this turn, as my divisions have reduced their fatigue to around 30ish and disruption to 10ish. A max effort has been ordered to bomb Chungking ground units as well.

However there is good news, the first George just rolled off the production lines as of December 16th! Will be making 12 a day and I expect in a week or so, Adm Wa will get a fun surprise! That brings up my favorite topic... which planes to build...

Todays subject is the venerable zero airframe. I have just switched over my last production factory making the A6M5 to the J7W1 Shinden (now have 9 factories). I do have 3 research factories still on the A6M5b (which should arrive May '43). This was a gutsy call, as I still need the zero for KB until the Sam shows up. KB is fully outfitted with the A6M5 model, and I have 168 in the pool. A further ~130 in units that will get the George soon enough. That means I have about 300 for KB replacements over the next 6 months?? As an emergency backup, I have about the same number of A6M3a in inventory and existing formations as well. Looking at the zero, it feels like the later model is not that much better, and best to concentrate on other airframes.