A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.

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rkr1958
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Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.

Post by rkr1958 »

Turn 23. May/June 1943. End of Turn.

Unoiled & Isolated/Disorganzied.
99-Unoiled-Euro-Units.png
99-Unoiled-Euro-Units.png (25.72 KiB) Viewed 178 times
99-Isolated-Ita-Land.png
99-Isolated-Ita-Land.png (1 MiB) Viewed 178 times
99-Isolated-IJA-Unoiled-IJN-Jp-Units.png
99-Isolated-IJA-Unoiled-IJN-Jp-Units.png (2.24 MiB) Viewed 178 times
Ronnie
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rkr1958
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Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.

Post by rkr1958 »

Turn 23. May/June 1943. End of Turn.

Army/Corps breakdown.
Gemini AI - During World War II, "Rat Transport" (known in Japanese as Nezumi Yusō — 鼠輸送) was the term used by the Imperial Japanese Navy (IJN) for night-time supply and reinforcement runs using fast warships—primarily destroyers—to deliver troops and supplies to island garrisons while evading Allied air and naval superiority.

The Allies famously called this operational tactic the Tokyo Express.
(1) The broken down 3rd inf div will use "RAT Transport" to either Manchuria or possibly Jp controlled Chinese coastal hex.
99-Jp-Breakdown.png
99-Jp-Breakdown.png (958.56 KiB) Viewed 177 times
Ronnie
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rkr1958
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Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.

Post by rkr1958 »

Turn 23. May/June 1943. End of Turn.

Final Production.
99-Final-Production-CL.png
99-Final-Production-CL.png (35.41 KiB) Viewed 170 times
99-Gross-BP.png
99-Gross-BP.png (111.33 KiB) Viewed 172 times
99-Net-BP.png
99-Net-BP.png (113.51 KiB) Viewed 172 times
99-Oil.png
99-Oil.png (174.33 KiB) Viewed 172 times
Ronnie
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rkr1958
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Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.

Post by rkr1958 »

Turn 23. May/June 1943. End of Turn.

Siam Completely Conquered by CW.
99-Conquest-Asian-Siam.png
99-Conquest-Asian-Siam.png (1.39 MiB) Viewed 135 times
Ronnie
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rkr1958
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Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.

Post by rkr1958 »

Turn 23. May/June 1943. End of Turn.

Economics Summary/Production.
99-Econ.png
99-Econ.png (101.81 KiB) Viewed 135 times
99-Production-1.png
99-Production-1.png (481.33 KiB) Viewed 135 times
99-Production-2.png
99-Production-2.png (270 KiB) Viewed 135 times
99-Production-3.png
99-Production-3.png (118.96 KiB) Viewed 135 times
Ronnie
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rkr1958
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Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.

Post by rkr1958 »

Turn 23. May/June 1943. End of Turn. Global Map.

Control.
99-GM-Control.png
99-GM-Control.png (113.91 KiB) Viewed 133 times
Units.
99-GM-Units.png
99-GM-Units.png (98.09 KiB) Viewed 133 times
Active Axis.
99-GM-Active-Axis.png
99-GM-Active-Axis.png (79.33 KiB) Viewed 133 times
Active Allied.
99-GM-Active-Allied.png
99-GM-Active-Allied.png (95.48 KiB) Viewed 133 times
Ronnie
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rkr1958
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Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.

Post by rkr1958 »

Turn 23. May/June 1943. End of Turn.

Victory Totals/Score.
99-VT.png
99-VT.png (145.82 KiB) Viewed 133 times
99-VT-2.png
99-VT-2.png (93.99 KiB) Viewed 133 times
Ronnie
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rkr1958
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Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.

Post by rkr1958 »

Turn 23. May/June 1943. End of Turn.

Key Fronts (Eastern & Western) Reports & Analysis.

(1) OKH is trying to apply rigor to allocation of land & air reinforcements to fronts; specifically between the Eastern & Western Fronts.
(2) Germany land unit allocation ratios look favorable equal on both key fronts (i.e., 1.7 units, 1.7 to 1.9 in LCF).
(3) So diving up land reinforcements equally between the two fronts seems to make the most sense.
(4) For air strength, German is at an equal air-to-air (i.e., fighter) deficit on both fronts; but not bad at 0.94.
(5) So fighter reinforcements deploy equally between the fronts.
(6) In TAC, Germany has a significant advantage (1.5) on the Eastern Front and a disadvantage (0.8) on the Western Front.
(7) So, the lions share of TAC air to the Western Front.
(8) Now of course, these ratios will change as allied reinforcements also show up.
(9) Let me know what you think about this analysis and especially how I might improve it!

German (& Italian) Land & Air Allocation (Current).
99-Ge-Key-Front-Report.png
99-Ge-Key-Front-Report.png (60.35 KiB) Viewed 124 times
Allied Land & Air Allocation (Current).
99-Allied-Key-Front-Report.png
99-Allied-Key-Front-Report.png (58.39 KiB) Viewed 124 times
German (& Italian) / Allied Ratios (Current).
99-Ge-Allied-Key-Front-Ratios.png
99-Ge-Allied-Key-Front-Ratios.png (69.44 KiB) Viewed 124 times
Ronnie
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rkr1958
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Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.

Post by rkr1958 »

Turn 24. July/August 1943. Start of Turn.

Reinforcements.
00-Reinf-CL.png
00-Reinf-CL.png (36.2 KiB) Viewed 60 times
Axis.
00-Axis-Reinf.png
00-Axis-Reinf.png (60.93 KiB) Viewed 60 times
Democratic Allied.
00-Democratic-Allied-Reinf.png
00-Democratic-Allied-Reinf.png (41.81 KiB) Viewed 60 times
communist Allied.
00-Communist-Allied-Reinf.png
00-Communist-Allied-Reinf.png (23.17 KiB) Viewed 60 times
Ronnie
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rkr1958
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Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.

Post by rkr1958 »

Turn 24. July/August 1943. Start of Turn.

Resource Lending
00-DTA.png
00-DTA.png (48.55 KiB) Viewed 51 times
00-Trade.png
00-Trade.png (165.03 KiB) Viewed 51 times
Ronnie
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rkr1958
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Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.

Post by rkr1958 »

Turn 24. July/August 1943. Start of Turn.

(Pre) Initiative.
(1) This turn (July/August) will be a long turn with fine weather across Western, Eastern Europe, Central, Northern China & China Sea.
(2) The axis hold the initiative advantage at Axis +2, with the allies winning ties.
(3) Both sides (axis & allies) & all 8 major powers want the initiative and to move first.
(4) Given that the axis are willing to reroll (allies can't), the axis have an overall 83.8% chance of winning the initiative and moving first.
(5) The axis have a 64% chance of winning it without having to request a reroll (i.e., on the first roll).
(6) The allies have only a 16.2% of winning the initiative and moving first.
(7) The "exact" calculation for axis win % is 64% (win out right on 1st roll w/Axis+2, Allies win tie) + 36% (lose first roll & request reroll) x 55% (win reroll at Axis+1, Allies win tie) = 64% + 36% x 55% = 83.8%

Voting.
00-Pre-Initiative-CL.png
00-Pre-Initiative-CL.png (21.33 KiB) Viewed 49 times
00-Pre-Initiative.png
00-Pre-Initiative.png (66.08 KiB) Viewed 49 times
Weather Forecast.
00-Weather-Forecast.png
00-Weather-Forecast.png (112.85 KiB) Viewed 49 times
Ronnie
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rkr1958
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Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.

Post by rkr1958 »

Turn 24. Jul/Aug 1943. Start of Turn.

Initiative.
(1) The allies hit the 1-in-6 set of rolls that give them the initiative and allows them to move first.
(2) This harkens me back to my Avalon Hill 3rd Reich days ... "the axis make a critical 1:1 attack and roll a D6 = 5".
00-Initiative-CL.png
00-Initiative-CL.png (43.15 KiB) Viewed 42 times
00-Initiative-Roll-1.png
00-Initiative-Roll-1.png (111.16 KiB) Viewed 42 times
01-AL-Weather-Report.png
01-AL-Weather-Report.png (113.21 KiB) Viewed 42 times
Ronnie
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