Sea of Japan.
(1) The only strategic bombing capability the allies have in the Pacific are in 2 USN Carrier Air Groups, one aboard the USN CV Essex and the other aboard the USN CV Hornet.
(2) These 2 CVs escorted by 2 USN CAs & 8 destroyers were moved from Pusan to Sea of Japan [4].
(3) For there, the 2 CAG will try to suppress Japanese producton.
(4) Given that Japan only has 1 factory producing, assuming they don't use their Synth oil for production, then the US needs to only knock out 1 PP.
(5) However; for good measures these CAGs will attack Hiroshima (2 factory city & though the line is drawn to Kyoto); but only 1 CVP at a time (i.e., impulse).
(6) Given that Japan can't oppose a strike on Hiroshima (no AA in position), the allies have a 40% chance of knocking out Japanese production (i.e., 30% of 1 PP & 10% of 2 PP just for good measure).
(7) If the USN misses this impulse (40%), then they have another CVP & impulse to strike again.
(8) The IJN has a powerful & organized surface force in Fukuoka; but the 2 USN CVs escorted by their 2 CAs & 4 destroyers should be enough if the IJN decides to try to take them on.
(9) Of course, there's the 12% chance the IJN CA sorties (4 CAs) to the 4-box or 9% IJN BB/CA sortie to the [3] could surprise the USN carrier task forces.
(10) However; that's a risk the USN would be happy for the IJN to try to exploit given 60% chance for a naval air against the IJN (potential) surface raiders.
(11) Again in war, reasonable risks must be taken.
China Sea.
(12) USN, USAAF moves support by Nationalist Air force have the objectives of: (a) interdicting any IJN rat patrol reinforcements to Chinese coast, (b) ensure Shanghai is garrison (US & CW land forces will prioritize liberation back to China of the remaining coast hexes controlled by Japan in order to also minimize this risk), (c) max effort ground strike versus Japanese garrison in Port Arthur with the goal of flipping one or both units allowing the Soviets to break their pact with Japan.
(13) The USN has 5 CVPs with TAC (4 with 1 & 1 with 2).
(14) This gives a po = 0.475 (i.e., 47.5% chance of flipping a given unit), which means an overall chance of 72.5% of flipping at least 1 of the 2 (again allowing the USSR to break the pact but not until next impulse as DOW for this impulse has already passed).
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