Can Japan Win???

[kaleun]

We need to start working on a nine step program.
My name is kaleun and I am a WITPaholic.
We can have meetings and such.


I am not an alcoholic
I am a drunk
alcoholics go to meetings[:D]

[barbarrossa]

Aye, Herr Kaleun[:D]

[Fallschirmjager]

If Japan can do well enough in the early war, she might have a chance landing in Aussie land. This would be alot better than taking PH since you have a chance of capturing heavy industry.

[kaleun]

But would you get to drink Mai Tais in the Honolulu Hilton (Or whatever the name of the hotel was)?[;)]

[Fallschirmjager]

ORIGINAL: kaleun

But would you get to drink Mai Tais in the Honolulu Hilton (Or whatever the name of the hotel was)?[;)]

[:D] War is nothing but a series of tradeoffs

[barbarrossa]

ORIGINAL: Fallschirmjager

If Japan can do well enough in the early war, she might have a chance landing in Aussie land. This would be alot better than taking PH since you have a chance of capturing heavy industry.

Don't give that away![:D]

[ctid98]

Well, I guess the answer to my question is "no you can't" [:-]

Maybe a push into India or Australia would give better results, or should I say deny the inevitable a little bit longer....

[rogueusmc]

But would you get to drink Mai Tais in the Honolulu Hilton (Or whatever the name of the hotel was)?

The Royal Hawaiian Hotel.......big pink sucker....can't see it hardly from the beach anymore but it is still there.....used to be the only one on the beach once upon a time.

[highblooded]

Hello all!
I must admit I too am intrigued by the thought of a 'what if' invasion of Pearl Harbor.
Here's some thoughts, info and questions.

Pearl defenses- approximately 2 divs. I believe Mostly at Oahu( but they should be weak in readiness- can anyone post an approximate Combat Value for these?)
Great cd's- 2x twin turrets with 16" guns one twin turret 12" guns that I know of- unknown number of smaller artillery ( can anyone post composition of these?)
Huge fleet- but most heavies should be damaged by surprise attack.
Lots of air but most of this will be destroyed or damaged by surprise attack.

Questions- what Japanese army/naval LCU's are available that can reach Pearl and how long to get there? Can they reach it with the "magic' movement allowances allowed on first turn or will it still take awhile to get there? I'm assuming at least 2 divisions probably more(4?).
It will take weeks to conquer Oahu, would cd's be hitting them the whole time or only during unload. If inf could land on dec 8 or 9th. cv's wil have damaged most heavies and bombardment groups could take out air and more fleet assests with surface tfs damaging more. of couse losses could skyrocket. I'm assuming that the entire Japaneese fleet would have to be involved or at least all cv's and cvl's( staging multiple tf's over the whole period so transports and surface units have cover from allied cv raids)
Do other Islands in the hawaii chain have air bases or port facilities? Maybe these could go first allowing zeros or nells to fly out from them.
The attack would have to be launched during first week of game, Hawaii recieved it's first reinforcements on dec 16 historically. by the end of Dec they will be pretty much secured and safe from any landing forces.

Obviously this is extremely ahistoric as the fleet would never commit to such an ambitious plan although they did advocate the single great battle theory ( of course on thier own turf) but we are only playing a game.... right?

The posibilities are interesting though, the loss of hawaii would have had on extreme impact on allied efforts. But is it worth it to not to be able to invade Phillipines (or possibly even minimizing malay assaults- although army air and Japanese army units may perhaps still allow malay to continue.
Delaying Philipines will make it a tough nut to crack once you finally are able to get around to it ( ie. all troops at 100% readiness and additional fortification)
Of course supplying Pearl will be a constant thorn in Japans side and fleet assets will always have to be stationed in area, denying their use elsewhere indefinately.

Mogami has stated that he lost 1/3 of his fleet, costly indeed. But how large was the fleet and what did it consist of? How many Lcu's and where did they come from? where other areas still able to be attacked? how long did it take?

Would it be necessary to alter scenario to make this possible? Is there sufficient Transport and surface forces available within movement area. 100% preparation would certainly be neede for Lcu's.

So what do you folks think... is it worth it?

[Rainerle]

Hi
is it historical that PH is mined from the beginning ?
I'm getting that notion when reading Mogamis post!

[mogami]

Hi
1. You cannot reach Hawaii on turn 1.
2. You'll need more then 2 div. There are more then 2 div on Hawaii and they are ready (will be more ready by the time you get there. There are 3 USN CV. (2 at sea in area your transports will be transiting and 1 on USA West Coast.
3. You can't sink all the combat ships at PH in 1 strike. If you stay for a 2nd or 3rd strike you might get involved in a surface battle. In any case you won't be able to sit there making port attacks with 2 enemy CV nearby so damaged USN ships can stay in port while the healthy ones come out to play.

4. When I said 1/3 of Japanese fleet I meant fleet not TF.
5. Japan needs resource and oil to begin arrving as soon as possible. There is no resource or oil at Hawaii. (there is a decent amount of fuel there but not enough supply to justify it as a supply source. Fuel does not turn the gears of Japanese heavy industry.

[Radzy]

ORIGINAL: Mogami
5. Japan needs resource and oil to begin arrving as soon as possible. There is no resource or oil at Hawaii. (there is a decent amount of fuel there but not enough supply to justify it as a supply source. Fuel does not turn the gears of Japanese heavy industry.

I do have one additional question to Your information. Is it possible to score, let's say, a coincidential, critical hit on fuel, supply depots which can disable (destroy) plenty (all) of them in a single attack, like it happened few times during the war? I'm not talking about A-bomb strike or fire storm effect but regular attack (naval or aerial).

Regards,
Radzy

[Jonny_B]

[:)]

Yes, Japan can win the game.

Edit the dam game, since all games in the pacific war theater in 1941, are surrounded and control by the simple fact that the Japanese Navy lost the Midway Battle, only about six months into the war, the game is based on this fact.

What would have happen if the Japanese Navy did not lose the sea battle, and lost no CV’s and the American Navy lost all three of there CV’s, very real and within game limits.
I believe that the Japanese naval construction yards would have been used extremely different, production according to schedule and all there plans to build many different ships would have been taken forward, not stopped.

Still the Australians and New Zealanders, being cut off from America supplies, facing Japan alone, having the Japanese landing forces attacking them, would have responed and would have kick the Jap's butt’s badly, taking the war to them in New Guinea.

Hard to take on the Aussies and Kiwi’s on there own turf. . I know, my neighbor is a Kiwi and the neighborhood is…………?

[pauk]

Since the moment i know that japanese player will be allowed to do (limited) changes in production, I can't wait to take IJ seat[&o]...

it will be very interesting to plan your production depends on strategy. What you gonna to do? expand your IJA production of IJN production? Will you pay more intention to air forces (new aircrafts) or to ships?
Of course, managing your military production should depend on the allied strategy. If your opponent plays defensive (waiting to get Essex and Hellcats, B-29....), Japanese player should switch production to Tojo and other aircrafts, and preserve veteran pilots for them (from AAR i saw that Tojo is best option for B-monsters). Of course, i have no doubts the Japanese player can't stop allied offensive, but i hope that with careful and wise planing military production coud prolonge the end of the war...
like i said...i just can't wait[;)]

[String]

So.. now we all know that PH can be taken.. but the cost was indeed quite high. But as WitP_Dude said, it could have been done with much lower losses.

[Hornblower]

Its intriguing to me to, taking PH that is. But the Japanese, IMHO, would not only need to take Oahu, but most if not all the islands in the chain. Personally I would think that if historically they did take the islands that they would be almost in a worst position then they ended up with historically. If they took the islands, for all intents and purposes they would have pushed the USN back to the west coast. Who here really thinks that the American public not to mention ADM King would have allowed a “Germany first” stratigy to exist given that event? Torch wouldn’t have happened and no amount of prodding on Winston’s part would have gotten the US to commit more troops/ships beyond what was needed to keep the sea lanes to Briton open and troops to make sure it was safe from invasion. The massive stockpiling of troops and landing craft for the ETO wouldn’t have happened till Japan was dealt with.

[String]

ORIGINAL: Hornblower

Its intriguing to me to, taking PH that is. But the Japanese, IMHO, would not only need to take Oahu, but most if not all the islands in the chain. Personally I would think that if historically they did take the islands that they would be almost in a worst position then they ended up with historically. If they took the islands, for all intents and purposes they would have pushed the USN back to the west coast. Who here really thinks that the American public not to mention ADM King would have allowed a “Germany first” stratigy to exist given that event? Torch wouldn’t have happened and no amount of prodding on Winston’s part would have gotten the US to commit more troops/ships beyond what was needed to keep the sea lanes to Briton open and troops to make sure it was safe from invasion. The massive stockpiling of troops and landing craft for the ETO wouldn’t have happened till Japan was dealt with.

well actually the best way to capture PH ingame would be by occupying all other bases first in the chain, base land based aircraft there and pound PH to dust..

[Nikademus]

WitP_Dude made an apt demonstration of that tactic [;)]

[ancient doctor]

Is there any possibility to make the design team allow to Japs(especally)to be able to program what ships they want to build(others than those already laid)and do it?I am sure that if the war hasnt taken the cource it did Japs might have made different desicion on what to build of cource depending on their industry potential and its resources.So any thoughts?

[Nikademus]

I seriously doubt it. The whole shipbuilding scheme (fixed for the Allies since they get so much anyway) was deliberately designed to only allow a Japan player to do so much in order to represent the fact that, in real life, there wasn't much Japan could do to alter her shipbuilding program, other than to scrap expensive long-term projects like Shinano or No.111 in favor of smaller easier to build craft.