Lawrence of Arabia Gambit for the Rising Sun

[Central Blue]

Looking forward to AAR's from a PBEM. Everything else is reiteration.

You can reiterate that taking anything in Alaska is a genuine threat that diverts important resources. Others can reiterate that the West Coast Command and NorPac have all sorts of resources at their disposal that most players probably seldom move... unless IJ were nice enough to bring some forces over for target practice.

You can reiterate that you can starve India and Australia and others can reiterate that the game engine doesn't work that way. Nor does it model popular uprisings by Indians over-joyed at the prospect of being ruled by IJ rather than GB.

And so on.

But while you continue to tell us where your forces are going, the rest of us are making plans for all the Allied forces you aren't engaging. As Mogami observes, your plan seems intent on turning Lawrence into the Ottomans

[Oliver Heindorf]

Hirohito, your plan is very interesting. personally, I doubt that it will work but thats another story. You say you conquer only some bases, which makes sense to me ...I think you gave too much points of interests to the allies, they will find a few bases where you are weak and you dont have the proper numer of escorts aviable..I think he can do early harm you very much.
and harm on one or two bases in this strategy will pulverise your plan as your plan needs 100% security that the plan goes ahead.

my main point against your strategy : you have absolutly no shipment/forces left to cover the uncertainity of war. You plan is good but you cannot plan war or what your opponent is doing. I hope to see an AAR maybe you can proove me wrong. Why dont you take one of these endless offers here to test your plan ? we are all hot [:D]

[freeboy]

Great plan, just add 6 yamatos 5 para divisions, 1200 transport planes, 8 carriers with highly capable trained pilots, and no restrictions on the use of Manchurian garason, ie no USSR.. and then maybe you could survive awhile till the us brings all it assets in in 44[:D]

[Tankerace]

As an Allied player, the easiest way to defeat his plan, IMO, is to sortie Forze Z, and all available British and Dutch ships to the Central Pacific, and the Aussies aswell. With his carriers and battleships ravaging the US fleet, ABD forces could tear his invasion convoys to pieces, or even better cut his supply lines. Without food, his landing forces would starve, and the US could pass those islands by, and in fact shorten the war.


Hirohito's plan is bold, and against just the US it could work. But in his rear he is leaving 2 BBs, 1 BC, about 15-18 CA, CL, and CLAAs, and about 10-15 destroyers from the British Far Eastern Fleet, the Butch Fleet, the US Asiatic Fleet, and the Australian Navy. If 1 German heavy cruiser can be extremly effective at disrupting convoys, think of what this firepower could do.

If he truly had to account for "every last drop of fuel and supply", then the loss of 1 transport, or 1 tanker, could wreck the entire plan. Also remembr, you are leaving about 30-45 submarines in your rear as well. And I know in my games by your Jan 7 starting date my subs bag usually 10-15 transports. That right there could throw a monkey wrench into your plans.

TO be truly effective, you are going to have to account for losses. You are going to have to figure in a "net casualty rating". For an enterprise such as yours, I would figure 25%. So, if your plan can still succeed with loosing 1/4 of your transports, then you have a master plan. But if it can't, then I suggest you go back to the drawing board, and come up with a lightly less bold plan.

I agree with Captain Cruft. If you confine it to 1 or two regions (India/Australia), you might be able to do it. But if you over extend yourself all over the place, then you will make yourself vulnerable to commerce raiding.

[mogami]

Hi, If he wants to be Larry of Pacific he has to first forget about holding any base. It is fine that they can be taken. There are many that can be taken. Ignore the ones that can be taken while empty. Instead find the ones that can be taken and in the process Japan kills off an allied unit or two. Go ahead and pretend that you are going to set up a massive complex and when the allies finally come to take it back be gone. Be off far away taking another base and killing a few more allied units. But never under any circumstance remain in any location where the Allies can bring a force and kill Japanese material.
Don't defend the base. Ambush the invasion. If that is not an option then let the attack land on thin air. Of course this is the way the faction of Japanese players that do not believe in base defense/capture in phase 2 have always planned to fight. This is the way a player who considers the enemy force his objective fights. Not fixating on geography.

During phase 3 Japan will be forced to fight static defensive battles and pay high costs to win them. In phase 2 Japan can still dance. Is still mobile can still vanish to reappear far from where the Allies expect. Don't tie this mobilty down to defending bases. The bases mean nothing. You cannot predict where you will go. Where you will go depends on the enemy. Where ever he maks a mistake you jump on him. Where he protrudes you lop him off where he is slow you are fast. You go where he provides a victory. Before you do your recon scouting and learn all you can about his dispositions you can't predict where to go. (Peeking before start does not count because you have work to do in phase 1 and that is securing your empire. The SRA is why you are fighting. In phase two you get to decide how you are fighting.

[tsimmonds]

But in his rear he is leaving 2 BBs, 1 BC, about 15-18 CA, CL, and CLAAs, and about 10-15 destroyers from the British Far Eastern Fleet, the Butch Fleet, the US Asiatic Fleet, and the Australian Navy.

Is this the fleet crewed by lady rugby players?

[UncleBuck]

Good point, I can't beleive we all forgot abut those Lovely Dutch and Brit Subs in the beginng of the game. The 30 or 40 US subs get a lucky hit now and again, but have faulty torpedoes. Luckily the deck guns work great, and Hirohito will not have enough DD's to escort every convoy. The Dutch and Brit Subs are very nasty. There are many choke points on his invasion route that would be prime for torpedo attacks. Do not forget the Mine Layers as well at key positions. If you can lay mines then move them to India so they can rearm, those Indian ports may be a bit troubleing. All of those Arty units in India also make good Beach defense units as well.

I can see bypassing the P.I. But taking Sumatra and Java are a must or you will get cut off trying to get to India. Even the P.I. woudl need limited invasions just to allow for suprression of Manila, and Clark. The US will get the 75 B-17's by Jan 15 1942. The real problem for Japan comes if the US can start re-enforcing P.I. by running teh Gauntlet. Land a couple more Marine Divisons or the USA units from Pearl along with a couple Hundred thousand in Supply, and engineers and the P.I. becomes a Japanese Death trap.

If you do a limited offensive in P.I. to keep them supressed taking Borneo, and Sulawesi, can be done with light forces. Going for INdia is Bold but I beleive it woudl be far to dangerous. I do think taking Northern Austrailia is possible, in fact Perth, Broome, Wyndham, Derby and Darwin could all be taken fairly cheaply. Then Back fill Timor, Java and Sumatra. The problem for Japan is going to be keeping these bases supplied. Very few of them are going ot supply themselves. You are not goingto take them intact, and they will be in danger of LBA very quickly. the Bonus to this is that if you have the forces Taking NG may be easier since teh Allied player will need to re-enforce Alice SPrings and the East Coast cities to prevent JP expansion.

I think there are great ideas in the plan but as it is now it is not possible to accomplish. It must have the scope reduced. You must pick a Continent to invade. I woudl Pick Austrailia. Easier to supply and easier to conquer. It will also hurt the allied attacks through DEI. India is just to far. the Supply lines woudl be enormous and vulnerable. Take, Rangoon if you can, as well as the Thai/Burma Area then Defend. You woudl then be secure on the Left and with Aussieland in your hands the DEI is a tough and safe nut for Japan. THis is going to push US forces into the Central arena but, they are coming for you someplace.

UB

[mogami]

Hi, His plan prevents Allied operations before mid 1943 exactly as much as moving the entire Japanese Armed forces back to the Home Islands prevents Allied Operations before mid 1943. They are not coming. They are not coming because you are preventing them they are not coming because it takes a year to raise and train and organize the force required.
Japanese units sitting in northern Austraila are as much out of the real war as those sent to Alaska or the moon. They are not on the route to Saipan.

Saipan, Saipan Saipan. The USAAF lusts for Saipan. The USN and USMC will knock themselves out to provide Saipan for the Allied player to use B-29.

You can draw a line from Dec 7 1941 to the date the first B-29 group is ready. everything the Allied player does down the entire line is directed at Saipan.


The only way this plan makes any sense at all is if the Japanese player is going for Auto Victory because it prepares no defense for late in war. It has a life or value of less then 1 year before it cannot work any further and the deployments become a handicap rather then an asset.

To score Auto Victory the Japanese player must have 4 times the VP the Allied player has on 1 Jan 1943 or any day in 1943. 3 times on 1 Jan 1944 or any day in 1944.

The Japanese player begins down over 5k points. So in 400 days he has to catch up and then out score the enemy by 4 to 1 or more. No problem against the AI. I never even bother to discuss strategy against the AI you don't need it. Just learn where the AI screws up and then spank it.

Against a human scoring 4 to 1 for 400 turns is a little harder then it sounds. You send a bombing mission against enemy airfield with 40 bombers. You destroy 10 on the ground but have 1 shot down by AA and lose 2 to ops. (you didn't score 4 to 1)
The first time your bombers are unescorted and meet enemy CAP (you don't score 4 to 1)
Dutch submarine sinks 10 point AK you sink submarine your minus points. You fly groups you don't need to and lose op points every day. The Allied player moves everything out of range and grounds them all. You must fly patrol and CAP. The Allied player does not have to bother except for certain locations where he can conduct air ops to his advantage.

The Allied player stays in port. All his areas outside the SRA produce supply that will move overland in time. Japanese submarines have no targets. Try that as Japan.

OK I am being extreme in the examples to show the line of thought the Allies can use to produce their actions. They won't ground all aircraft or keep every ship in port but they can limit these operations much more then the Japanese player can.

In the beginning a large Allied force is unprepared and can be isolated and defeated in detail but the most excellent Japanese player with all the luck in the world cannot finish this jonb in under 90 days . And it will like as not require closer to 120 for even the best results.

Any action the Japanese take outside the SRA will like as not add to the time the SRA operations require. Without the timely arrival of reinforecments provided by the release of units at the CONCLUSION of SRA operations all operations outside the SRA can be meet with superiour LOCAL force. I mean you can run a unit far in advance and sieze a base or two or 20 but you can't hold any of them without troops that begin commited to SRA operations. If you remove them from SRA to go adventure seeking you lengthen the time the SRA operations require and these operations are vital because your supply production depends on them.

Now even if you move SRA forces early to give power to these early forward lunges all you have done is move forces into unsupplied status and left them in range of enemy counter attacks and still your economy has not benifited.

Thats why I say you might as welll send them all back to Japan. At least they will be supplied and the Allies cannot kill them.

You cannot present a plan for the entire war that does not begin with taking the SRA ahead of schedule and below cost and getting it in good working condition. No Japanese plan that does not do this basic thing first is a good plan. It can't be.

It is like saying. "I don't know what the moves will be but on move 25 my queen will move to E5 and mate the opposing King. There is nothing you can do to stop me." Sounds really bold. But untill I see you do it I'll think your full of cow crap.

This long line from Alaska to Oz looks like a fishing net that the ALlied player just keeps running into? Where are you scoring 4 to 1. What if he just says "OK" and stays at home? You don't force him to do anything where do the 4-1 points come from. When he comes he will come at the most isolated location and he will win. Then he will go to the next. And so on.

[Central Blue]

As with Alaska, any foray into Australia allows the Allies to begin to attrit Japanese forces with troops that would almost certainly never see action otherwise; Australia Command is not insignifigant. So unless IJ shows up in force, anyone that lands in Derby or Darwin or Cairns is expendable, or will be forced to retreat quickly. Any forces committed to successful Australian landings are forces not in play elsewhere--and the Beauforts and Hudson will have a field day with the invasion fleets if IJ doesn't have local air superiority from somewhere.

Making it easy for the enemy to deploy forces against you at a price cheaper than your own seems un-Larry like to me.

[tsimmonds]

(pssst! Who's Larry...?)

[mogami]

A. A lobster sacrificed on Saturday Night Live
B. A Lounge Lizard in a Leasure Suit
C. Chipper Jones

[Central Blue]

irrelevent....

you haven't read every word of every post in this thread?

The answer is out there.

[tsimmonds]

Oh....duh....Larry of Araby.[:o]

[Tankerace]

ORIGINAL: irrelevant

But in his rear he is leaving 2 BBs, 1 BC, about 15-18 CA, CL, and CLAAs, and about 10-15 destroyers from the British Far Eastern Fleet, the Butch Fleet, the US Asiatic Fleet, and the Australian Navy.

Is this the fleet crewed by lady rugby players?

Haha, typo. Whoopsie [:D]

[Dereck]

You know, a lot of people (including myself) have criticized Hirohito's plan as not being able to work. But at one time the entire Joint Chiefs of Staff criticized one General's plan and said there was no way it would work. This General got his way and his landings on Inchon turned the tide of the Korean War.

[freeboy]

ok, this is the greatest plan in the world if you had more to use, but as it is watch out

[sveint]

>But at one time the entire Joint Chiefs of Staff criticized one

I'm sorry but this is different.

This is a case of one armchair general having read a book about history, being a fanboy of hero of said history book, then having delusions of grandeur of being the Emperor of Japan, next all he need are worshippers so he comes here to proclaim his genious and expect us to... to do what? [&o]

If he really thought it would work he wouldn't post here; he'd play and use his "strategy". That's not what he wants, he wants esteem and to satisfy his own ego.

Now's here's my "darn the torpedoes" opinion: a 3 year old can make better attempts at getting attention, all his "strategy" amounts to is "take everything".

Clear enough?

EDIT for spelling

[grumbler]

AN excellent point. Another point I don't see addressed anywhere is the flak issue. It is easy to say that KB can just pound PH and destroy the fleet there in toto. It is another thing to play the game and see your elite pilots being bagged by the not-inconsiderable flak you encounter. Flak don't know shite about eliteness.

I have never been able to make my extended "KB against PH" excursions come out positive in net terms. I can sink lots of replaceable USN ships and destroy replaceable USAAF aircraft, but I have never felt like I "won" when KB sails for Japan at 50% air strength.

As Mogami says, it isn't what you kill, it is what killing it costs in time, resources, and opportunity that is the key. And saying that India is easier early on isn't saying that it is easy, at all.

Hirohito has an interesting idea. I think it lacks some vital considerations, though, like losses and oportunity cost. He started a good thinking man's thread, though, and I salute him for that. Even better, it trigered some funny posts, and after my last game as the Japanese I needed that.

[grumbler]

I'm sorry but this is different.

This is a case of one armchair general having read a book about history, being a fanboy of hero of said history book, then having delusions of grandeur of being the Emperor of Japan, next all he need are worshippers so he comes here to proclaim his genious and expect us to... to do what? [&o]

If he really thought it would work he wouldn't post here; he'd play and use his "strategy". That's not what he wants, he wants esteem and to satisfy his own ego.

Now's here's my "darn the torpedoes" opinion: a 3 year old can make better attempts at getting attention, all his "strategy" amounts to is "take everything".

Clear enough?

Can we limit the personal attacks to once per lifetime (and post them in the "Psychology Subforum")? The guy posted his thoughts on a game strategy in the "War Room" and asked for comments. He is on topic. You are not. I welcome more of his approach.

[Edited to be less inflamatory]

[V2]

Nuthin to add - just wanted to keep the string going! Definitely a good read the last few days.