Losing the war

[ilovestrategy]

I wonder at what point the Japanese started to feel maybe they messed with the wrong country. I was doing some casual research. I had no clue we out produced Japan 10 to 1![X(] Anyone know how many carriers and other ships we had at the end? The scale is is just mind boggling!

[Arkady]

They know it just before Pearl Harbour, at least Yamamoto did.
But they was brave and start war anyway.....because they know that today we need this very good game [:D]

[mc3744]

ORIGINAL: Arkady

They know it just before Pearl Harbour, at least Yamamoto did.
But they was brave and start war anyway.....because they know that today we need this very good game [:D]

[:D][:D][:D]

[DuckofTindalos]

The United States entered the war with seven fleet carriers, and by VJ-Day had commissioned 17 Essex-class and 9 Independence/Saipan-class fleet carriers and something like 69 escort carriers. On top of that comes 37 CVE's built for Britain's Royal Navy.

Yamamoto knew from the start that war with the US was a losing proposition, but when you look at Japan's situation in the late 1930'es and early 40'es, it's quite easy to see why they felt they had no choice but to go to war.

[TulliusDetritus]

Ilovestrategy, I guess after Midway [:D]

As Arkady has said, Yamamoto did know that Japan could never win the war: he knew that on 1943 the situation would change (just because he was aware of the amazing industrial capacity of the USA).

But do not forget japanese plans (wrong or right, that's a different story): "if we annihilate american carriers in Midway, american government might want peace -after 7 months of disasters". I guess they failed to understand that the americans would fight to death, which was quite logic.

[castor troy]

ORIGINAL: TulliusDetritus

Ilovestrategy, I guess after Midway [:D]

As Arkady has said, Yamamoto did know that Japan could never win the war: he knew that on 1943 the situation would change (just because he was aware of the amazing industrial capacity of the USA).

But do not forget japanese plans (wrong or right, that's a different story): "if we annihilate american carriers in Midway, american government might want peace -after 7 months of disasters". I guess they failed to understand that the americans would fight to death, which was quite logic.

Don´t think the Americans fought, fight or will ever fight to death! Japanese fought to death and "only" until the 2 big boys were dropped. I don´t know how many defeats they must take but also the "mighty" Americans would agree a peace. I don´t say they would official surrender but they would agree a peace treaty! Vietnam? Somalia? Other places? Retreats?

[carnifex]

You misunderstand

When he says Americans would fight to the death, he means the Japanese death.

[TulliusDetritus]

You read my post literally and/or I didn't explain myself clearly, sorry.

Before Pearl Harbor => the american people were isolationist
After Pearl Harbor => everyone in the US took this resolution: "Japan must be crushed".

"Japan must be crushed" is what I called "fight to death". To tell the truth, the american resolution was far more scary and effective than the pathetic japanese kamikaze tactics, which prove, above all, that they were desperated [:D]

[Toast]

The Japanese strategy for starting the war were predicated on the premise that Germany would knock out the Soviet Union. At that point the Western Allies would have had their hands so full with Germany that they would have been able to spare little resources for the Pacific and the possiblity that Britain could be knocked out of the war entirely was very real. At least this was the Army's line of thinking.

Just like the idea that American would sign a peace treaty with Japan under any circumstances than a very conditional surrender, the idea the Germany could ever defeat the Soviet Union is ridiculous in hindsight. But the Japanese strategy was predicated on those two very wrong premises: the Soviet Union would be out of the war and America would be wiling to sign a peace treaty favorable to Japan. So really before the first bomb was dropped on Pearl Harbor, the Japanese had lost the war because both premises were patently false.

[mogami]

Hi, I can't verify this but I have heard that Japan was outproduced by General Motors alone.
In WWII the USA out produced all other countries combined. The USA gave away enough material to form 500 Tank Regts. (The USA gave away more material then all but 2 other countries produced)
In WITP the USA player is getting less then 30 percent of the total output.

[WiTP_Dude]

ORIGINAL: Mogami

In WITP the USA player is getting less then 30 percent of the total output.

Isn't it much less than 30%? There was a 70-30 split between the ETO and PTO but I don't know if this includes lend-lease.

[Mike Scholl]

ORIGINAL: ilovestrategy

I wonder at what point the Japanese started to feel maybe they messed with the wrong country. I was doing some casual research. I had no clue we out produced Japan 10 to 1![X(] Anyone know how many carriers and other ships we had at the end? The scale is is just mind boggling!

You want the really scary part? The US started scaling back it's war production planning in mid 1943, cancelling a lot of ship orders and such. Had the need been there, it could have gone a good deal higher.
No other nation was in position to toss up massive, purpose-built factories like Ford's at Willow Run,
or Boeing's in Wichita or Chrisler's AAA gun factory in Chicago (bigger than Willow Run). Once these started coming "on line" in 43, production went "through the roof". Edward Grey (the English politician) had it right when he said "America is like an enormous boiler. Once you get a fire started under it, there is no end to the power it can produce." Pearl Harbor was a great Fire-Starter.

[moses]

Just to provide balance:

No one knew before the war that the US, (which remenber had just gone through the most devestating depression in its history) would be able to mobilize its industry and military power so quickly and effectively. And to have even suggested the actual Russian production figures to anyone in 1941 would have caused you to be laughed out of the room.

Germany was assumed to be an industrial giant and with all their newly conquered territory it was quite reasonable at the time to believe they could outproduce the allies. Japan was a rising economic power and again with their early conquests it was reasonable to expect that their production would soar.

The war clearly demonstrated that mass-production techniques as practiced by the US and Russia were the way to go. The axis powers were all to varying degrees tried to maintain high standards of quality craftmanship and precision weapons and were therefore not able to produce the numbers needed. However none of this was nearly as clear at the time as it is in retrospect.

[Nikademus]

Whats really scary IMO, is that Germany 'was' a potential industrial powerhouse though not (of course) on the same scale as the US. Had Germany started off from the start with a total war attiude in regards to production, the war might have evolved quite differently than it did.

Which is not to say that the Allies would not still have prevailed in the end, especially if Germany attacked Russia and failed to achieve a quick knockout blow...but it could have been alot messier and one wonders if a total surrender would have been achieved.

It was fortunate for the rest of the world that Hitler and his cronies were poor economic managers who didn't look ahead with a worst case scenerio in mind.

[Speedysteve]

Quite true Nik. Quite true.

[Guderon]

I know this is getting off-topic, but it was primarily Hitler who was the poor manager. A lot of his economic/production advisors and Generals wanted to wait until 1944 before starting the war. A lot of them estimated it would take that long to produce the forces required to have a reasonable chance of success with the conquests he had planned.

[Nikademus]

True. the only problem with the later war start is that even more variables are changed. the US, UK, and especially Russia would have had that much more time to get their own act's together. How well would Germany's Wermacht have done for example, against a reabillitated and revitalized Red Army....cured of the ravages of the Purges?

[Mike Scholl]

ORIGINAL: Nikademus
It was fortunate for the rest of the world that Hitler and his cronies were poor economic managers who didn't look ahead with a worst case scenerio in mind.

AMEN Brother. It was really a break that Hitler was actually afraid of the German People's Morale collapsing if he couldn't provide "Guns and Butter". We also need to give a vote of thanks to the German Military, who resisted doing business with more modern "mass production" companies in favor of dealing with their small traditional suppliers. They also insisted on making constant changes in the name of "improvement" that prevented long and efficent production runs. Speer's real success lay in having enough backing from Hitler to kick the German Military out of Armaments Manufacture and let the Industrialists get on with their job. When you really look at it, the amazing part of WW II is how far the Germans were able to go with their rediculous attitude towards industrial production

[Nikademus]

Probably the saddest statisical fact was that for most of the war, the UK managed to outproduce Germany in AFV production despite Germany's larger industrial base. Churchill and co. put their noses to the grindstone. (as did the Russian factory workers)

[Fafner]

The leadership of the Japanese knew they could never outproduce America and would lose a "total war" with the US. Unfortunately for them, hubris, *racism*, and levels of self-delusion that boggles the mind, lead them to believe (right until the dropping of the A-bombs) that the "soft" Americans would most assuredly settle for peace rather than fight a "total" war.