RE: Weighing a thing's worth...
Posted: Sun Nov 28, 2010 5:17 pm
September 10th.
Well, another 3 USN BBs have been identified in the waters around Okinawa and what looks like a minimum of 7 or 8 CVEs are covering invasion TFs into the Ishigaki island region. PH is running a LOT of LRCAP over his TFs and bases. It appears that he is trying to cover every TF or base with 100 fighters, split between high ( 37,000+) and low ( under 6,000 feet ) CAP/LRCAP. With 4 bases to cover and 5 or 6 TFs that is a committment of 1,000 fighters to purely defensive missions.
Wonderful !!!! While they're doing that they're not killing my fighters and butchering my pilots before they can upgrade to useful planes. I'm encouraging this misallocation of resources by committing a single Betty kamikaze Daitai and a Toka unit ( basically the Toka is the navy version of the Ki-115 and utterly useless in the face of lots of CAP. On the plus side it only costs 18 HI to build one and so is the cheapest way I can distract him.) I'm also running a dozen A6M8/7 kamis into the region to keep a credible high-altitude threat alive. They won't do much but if I can tie him into the Okinawa/Ishigaki operations for another fortnight then my rebuilding of my air force will be largely complete and when he comes for Japan proper he will find 200 modern fighters flown by pilots with A2A skill of between 75 and 65 over each of my important bases.
My submarines continued to spot lots of USN shipping but none of my night torpedo bombers flew. Ah well, there's always tomorrow. The tactic is solid and I'll just have to wait for it to bear fruit.
Today his bombers his Fukuoka where I had parked a lot of ships I just had no use for. I had also placed my CVEs there as "bomb magnets" and that's just how they worked. About half of all bombs which hit anything hit the 3 CVEs - which are worthless militarily and saved other ships from destruction. My night fighters were unable to force his bombers back and didn't even shoot any down. On the other hand none of the planes committed had radar. Next month though I begin making 48 Ki-102cs per month and those have radar. I expect them to begin shooting down B-29s.
Even notwithstanding that forcing him to conduct night raids lowers the effectiveness of his bombers by a huge factor... If he wasn't getting so tied up in knots by my expenditure of 12 kamis per day around Okinawa, diverting about 1,000 fighters to defensive missions, he could sweep my bases during the daytime and send in devastating daylight raids which would sink scores of ships.
He seems to think he is achieving great success with his night-time raids and I have judged that the best way to encourage him to continue them is to frequently downplay the damage done. It appears that as I do that he believes he "sees through" this maskirovka and it encourages him to view these raids as significant. I can then, truthfully, say that I don't think they're significant at which point he sees through this next layer of maskirovka and redoubles his bombing efforts.
The problem is he isn't looking at the opportunity cost of the bombing in terms of what missions he could be running which would be MORE effective than night-time bombing. To be fair his night-time bombing raids aren't super-effective either. I got about as many hits with a 6 bomber Ki-264 raid as he did with close to 100 B-29s tonight...
Anyways, so far in terms of psyops:
1. He's getting suckered into committing heavy units to the Okinawa region.
2. He is committing 1,000+ fighters to defensive missions when they could hugely damage my airforce if used offensively before I have the next generation of fighters in production ( the first of these begin production next month ).
3. He is committing to night-time bombing raids in a big way.
4. He is susceptible to perceived threats elsewhere ( he seems to have interpreted the movement of my kamis into Truk as a threat to his B-29 bases at Guam etc.... He flew his B-29s out of there a day or so after I moved into Truk with the kamis.
5. Most important of all. He seems to think he is ahead of the curve in the psyops war. I'm going to continue feeding him small numbers of planes daily to encourage that view.
6. He is susceptible to manipulation in target selection. When I based the Ki-43 IIIs into Formosa he obliterated the base with B29s. Over the past week he has also bombed bases after I've moved small numbers of kami-type planes in. Basically if it is a front-line base and it goes from empty to occupied he strongly considers hitting it.I can use that with small fragments of groups to help him waste days of massed bomber strikes.
There's a lot more to surviving against heavy bombers than shooting them down. One of the best ways of surviving is simply to help guide them to hit targets you don't find essential. That's what I'm doing right now and it seems to be working well.
In other news two of my subs sank the CVE Casablanca and the 25 Hellcats aboard her near Ishigaki. The BB Tennessee is also showing up as sunk but I doubt that is true. I also destroyed 3 subs with minefields around the sea of Japan today and two of his ships hit sub-laid minefields around Okinawa. In return 3 of my subs which attacked large USN and RN TFs were also sunk. Such is life.
He is making an effort to kill my barge TFs running troops and supplies to the islands off Kyushu with surfaced subs so I am adding depth-charge carrying barges to these TFs and will consider adding MGBs ( armed with an 8cm gun as well as 25mm guns ) to the TFs also if the depth-charge carrying barges don't stop the subs entirely.
Tomorrow two PT TFs will be ready to operate from Amami Oshima. Over the course of the next fortnight I plan to commit PT TFs to maintain the focus on the Okinawa region and encourage him to keep CAs and CLs in the region --- where my night-time torpedo attacks, minefields and submarines can get at them.
Onto more important matters than the Okinawa sideshow....
The Kuriles are thickening nicely in terms of troops. I have the first Brigade emplaced on an island and almost every island has a CD unit. I am also ordering a large majority of the artillery units in the Home Islands to Hokkaido for later shipment to the Kuriles. In terms of AAA I am ordering every MG AAA unit ( 2cm guns and smaller ) into the Kuriles with a view to providing defence vs dive-bombers. Independent infantry Brigades are loading onto ships ready for transport and engineer units are also beginning to arrive. Given two months I can make the Kuriles a VERY tough nut to crack. The problem is I don't think I have 2 months.
It is 10th September and the Okinawa/Ishigaki operation will be completed by 24th September. I could begin expecting landings in the Kuriles within 2 weeks of that date. By that date I'm not sure I'll have sufficient forts built to enable to Kuriles to hold. Neither will I have enough kamikazes of the right types. So I've decided to focus on the defences of the islands closest to Hokkaido and expand my defences outward as time allows. I'll have a presence on every island but I'll only really thicken out the innermost islands and once I judge them secure I'll extent outward. The inner ring runs from Hokkaido to Etorofu Jima.
I'll go into the defensive plans for the Kuriles later but suffice it to say it features Shinyos, PTs and lots of high-altitude kamikazes combined with as much arty as I can manage... Why so much arty? Well, I know I can't stop any landing he wants to make but if I have enough artillery I might be able to disable and destroy enough squads during the amphibious landing phase to throw the issue into doubt. It isn't ideal but it is the best compromise I can reach in a situation where I can't stop him landing and I can't win the numbers battle once he lands.
Well, another 3 USN BBs have been identified in the waters around Okinawa and what looks like a minimum of 7 or 8 CVEs are covering invasion TFs into the Ishigaki island region. PH is running a LOT of LRCAP over his TFs and bases. It appears that he is trying to cover every TF or base with 100 fighters, split between high ( 37,000+) and low ( under 6,000 feet ) CAP/LRCAP. With 4 bases to cover and 5 or 6 TFs that is a committment of 1,000 fighters to purely defensive missions.
Wonderful !!!! While they're doing that they're not killing my fighters and butchering my pilots before they can upgrade to useful planes. I'm encouraging this misallocation of resources by committing a single Betty kamikaze Daitai and a Toka unit ( basically the Toka is the navy version of the Ki-115 and utterly useless in the face of lots of CAP. On the plus side it only costs 18 HI to build one and so is the cheapest way I can distract him.) I'm also running a dozen A6M8/7 kamis into the region to keep a credible high-altitude threat alive. They won't do much but if I can tie him into the Okinawa/Ishigaki operations for another fortnight then my rebuilding of my air force will be largely complete and when he comes for Japan proper he will find 200 modern fighters flown by pilots with A2A skill of between 75 and 65 over each of my important bases.
My submarines continued to spot lots of USN shipping but none of my night torpedo bombers flew. Ah well, there's always tomorrow. The tactic is solid and I'll just have to wait for it to bear fruit.
Today his bombers his Fukuoka where I had parked a lot of ships I just had no use for. I had also placed my CVEs there as "bomb magnets" and that's just how they worked. About half of all bombs which hit anything hit the 3 CVEs - which are worthless militarily and saved other ships from destruction. My night fighters were unable to force his bombers back and didn't even shoot any down. On the other hand none of the planes committed had radar. Next month though I begin making 48 Ki-102cs per month and those have radar. I expect them to begin shooting down B-29s.
Even notwithstanding that forcing him to conduct night raids lowers the effectiveness of his bombers by a huge factor... If he wasn't getting so tied up in knots by my expenditure of 12 kamis per day around Okinawa, diverting about 1,000 fighters to defensive missions, he could sweep my bases during the daytime and send in devastating daylight raids which would sink scores of ships.
He seems to think he is achieving great success with his night-time raids and I have judged that the best way to encourage him to continue them is to frequently downplay the damage done. It appears that as I do that he believes he "sees through" this maskirovka and it encourages him to view these raids as significant. I can then, truthfully, say that I don't think they're significant at which point he sees through this next layer of maskirovka and redoubles his bombing efforts.
The problem is he isn't looking at the opportunity cost of the bombing in terms of what missions he could be running which would be MORE effective than night-time bombing. To be fair his night-time bombing raids aren't super-effective either. I got about as many hits with a 6 bomber Ki-264 raid as he did with close to 100 B-29s tonight...
Anyways, so far in terms of psyops:
1. He's getting suckered into committing heavy units to the Okinawa region.
2. He is committing 1,000+ fighters to defensive missions when they could hugely damage my airforce if used offensively before I have the next generation of fighters in production ( the first of these begin production next month ).
3. He is committing to night-time bombing raids in a big way.
4. He is susceptible to perceived threats elsewhere ( he seems to have interpreted the movement of my kamis into Truk as a threat to his B-29 bases at Guam etc.... He flew his B-29s out of there a day or so after I moved into Truk with the kamis.
5. Most important of all. He seems to think he is ahead of the curve in the psyops war. I'm going to continue feeding him small numbers of planes daily to encourage that view.
6. He is susceptible to manipulation in target selection. When I based the Ki-43 IIIs into Formosa he obliterated the base with B29s. Over the past week he has also bombed bases after I've moved small numbers of kami-type planes in. Basically if it is a front-line base and it goes from empty to occupied he strongly considers hitting it.I can use that with small fragments of groups to help him waste days of massed bomber strikes.
There's a lot more to surviving against heavy bombers than shooting them down. One of the best ways of surviving is simply to help guide them to hit targets you don't find essential. That's what I'm doing right now and it seems to be working well.
In other news two of my subs sank the CVE Casablanca and the 25 Hellcats aboard her near Ishigaki. The BB Tennessee is also showing up as sunk but I doubt that is true. I also destroyed 3 subs with minefields around the sea of Japan today and two of his ships hit sub-laid minefields around Okinawa. In return 3 of my subs which attacked large USN and RN TFs were also sunk. Such is life.
He is making an effort to kill my barge TFs running troops and supplies to the islands off Kyushu with surfaced subs so I am adding depth-charge carrying barges to these TFs and will consider adding MGBs ( armed with an 8cm gun as well as 25mm guns ) to the TFs also if the depth-charge carrying barges don't stop the subs entirely.
Tomorrow two PT TFs will be ready to operate from Amami Oshima. Over the course of the next fortnight I plan to commit PT TFs to maintain the focus on the Okinawa region and encourage him to keep CAs and CLs in the region --- where my night-time torpedo attacks, minefields and submarines can get at them.
Onto more important matters than the Okinawa sideshow....
The Kuriles are thickening nicely in terms of troops. I have the first Brigade emplaced on an island and almost every island has a CD unit. I am also ordering a large majority of the artillery units in the Home Islands to Hokkaido for later shipment to the Kuriles. In terms of AAA I am ordering every MG AAA unit ( 2cm guns and smaller ) into the Kuriles with a view to providing defence vs dive-bombers. Independent infantry Brigades are loading onto ships ready for transport and engineer units are also beginning to arrive. Given two months I can make the Kuriles a VERY tough nut to crack. The problem is I don't think I have 2 months.
It is 10th September and the Okinawa/Ishigaki operation will be completed by 24th September. I could begin expecting landings in the Kuriles within 2 weeks of that date. By that date I'm not sure I'll have sufficient forts built to enable to Kuriles to hold. Neither will I have enough kamikazes of the right types. So I've decided to focus on the defences of the islands closest to Hokkaido and expand my defences outward as time allows. I'll have a presence on every island but I'll only really thicken out the innermost islands and once I judge them secure I'll extent outward. The inner ring runs from Hokkaido to Etorofu Jima.
I'll go into the defensive plans for the Kuriles later but suffice it to say it features Shinyos, PTs and lots of high-altitude kamikazes combined with as much arty as I can manage... Why so much arty? Well, I know I can't stop any landing he wants to make but if I have enough artillery I might be able to disable and destroy enough squads during the amphibious landing phase to throw the issue into doubt. It isn't ideal but it is the best compromise I can reach in a situation where I can't stop him landing and I can't win the numbers battle once he lands.



