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Picket and MLR is the way to go early on for sure.To stop armor penetrating and fanning out behind the MLR you also need to have strong points behind it so that you've got three layers of defense.Try to work out where your main lines are going to be in advance and dig forts in the places where the terrain doesn't tie the positions together.This can sometimes be done by units forming the strong points behind the MLR.
In the South especially you have to use the river lines.Any non-open terrain that there is in the South is precious and should be used to create strong areas of resistence, encouraging the Axis to go around them.For example, the whole Kiev-Cherkassy area should be turned into a fortress so that the Axis are forced to go further South to cross.This gives you time to build stronger defenses to the South of Cherkassy.
You have to get the picket-MLR-strongpoint thing right from turn one though otherwise your army gradually disappears and you lose the unit density needed to make it work.Losing units in pockets has a bad snowballing effect.

this aar will be great. tarhunnas hang in there. after 17 turns its your turn to counter him.
i hope this game go to 1945

Tarhunnas,

1. Do you have any indications he's doing ("all sorts of") HQBUs ? Would that be possible with your GC41-45 alternate VP260 ? Although his Dnepr crossing looked impressive in the first screen, his corridor to Chernigov remains a narrow one after your counter attack from the eastern edge. I just wonder about the supply situation of his spearhead. His railheads can't be that close. And if he's doing zillions of supply flights, one might think about "interception" with all the bad consequences on Ju52/bomber morale - however, I have only very limited experience with Sov airforce capabilities at this point of the campaign.

2. What's he doing up north ? Don't think he's going for LGD - t5 and Inf lagging behind, but it could lure you into diverting forces to the north you may better use past the landbridge and beyond.
Or, as Flaviusx said,

I would be reinforcing neither area, too, just leave the remnants of West Front and SW Front to delay and harass. The swarm of cadres that will be shortly arriving would start building new defensive lines further east.

+1. And none of your rules said that all those reinforcements have to fight forward.

So many regiments. I'd be tempted to just hurl my entire army at those regiments. If you can do serious enough damage to those mobile breakdowns you'll quickly cripple those panzers by turn 10-12ish.

Also, no speed bump at Smolensk? Odd, no?

Tarhunnas, note that even I will flat out run away if my forces fall to critically low levels. Picketing isn't free, you will lose units. It minimizes the losses, but right now you haven't got a whole lot of fat to spare.

Also, for best economy of force, go with one unit every 3 hexes on the picket, not on every other hex.

ORIGINAL: notenome

So many regiments. I'd be tempted to just hurl my entire army at those regiments. If you can do serious enough damage to those mobile breakdowns you'll quickly cripple those panzers by turn 10-12ish.

Michael T has a very good grasp how how hex control works and the limitations of Soviet units entering enemy controlled hexes. He creates a zone of Axis controlled hexes in front of his spearheads. That means that if I am to close for a counterattack, I have to cross several enemy controlled hexes, eating up my MPs so I don't have enough to make deliberate attacks. He is handling it extremely well actually, so even with the plentiful regiments, the chances for successful counterattacks are few. He is playing admirably well!

That said, his mobile units are showing signs of fatigue, with tortous supply lines and being constantly in contact and combat. There will be chances for counterattacks - if I have an army left to take them.

Yes, counterattacks will mostly occur along the MLR, not along the picket line. If the MLR has to be relocated east to preserve to integrity of your lines, you can counterattack and fade away, leaving enough units behind for picketing.

Ideally the entire MLR is placed on reserve mode. He will likely not be able to zoc all of it and the MLR can support itself via reserve reactions. Unfortunately, you agreed to limit your use of reserves (a rule I would never in a million years agree to. I don't know how Micheal suckers people into these ridiculous restrictions...)

Timmyab has some good suggestions as well.

Reinforcements will start ramping up. I think what will decide this game will be your placement of the reinforcements. If you feed them to the front, they'll die. But hold them back creating a new front line. What I'd do is I'd reduce the TOE of all those frontline divisions to 50-70% and place all new units on refit somewhere along the red lines in the pic.

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx

Ideally the entire MLR is placed on reserve mode. He will likely not be able to zoc all of it and the MLR can support itself via reserve reactions. Unfortunately, you agreed to limit your use of reserves (a rule I would never in a million years agree to. I don't know how Micheal suckers people into these ridiculous restrictions...)

Frankly, I have always fought forward, and I would have done so even if there had been no restrictions. I am learning the limits of that strategy now, but then being bested by someone good is the best way to learn. As for reserves, I am usually not using reserves much at this stage, as I am afraid that reacting units that are then on the losing side will rout, and leave holes in my ZOC-grid. Maybe I am exaggerating this risk, so that may be my mistake. Point is, I agreed to the restrictions partly because I didn't see them impacting much on my play.

Reducing the TOE of the picketing units isn't a bad idea, but I'd leave units on the MLR at full TOE.

Those are pretty good fallback lines for placing the incoming cadres.

Fighting forward is the right thing to do. But those units are going to die, their role is to slow down and wear down the Axis. The flood of reserves and reinforcements is what will hopefully stop the Axis.

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx

Reducing the TOE of the picketing units isn't a bad idea, but I'd leave units on the MLR at full TOE.

Those are pretty good fallback lines for placing the incoming cadres.

Will TOE changes to the of the picket line really have time to take effect? The pickets are mostly adjacent to enemy so will receive fewer replacements anyway and will likely die in a turn or two, so is it really worth the bother to tinker with their TOE?

Sometimes the pickets will rout when attacked out of range of enemy zoc, giving you a chance to send them right back in on your turn. So reducing their TOE can pay some dividends. This is quite a bit of micromanagement, admittedly.

Turn 6 before Soviet moves.

This is really embarassing! I am the victim of a Kiev-pocket!

After Soviet moves. The Kiev-pocket proves breakable, and the Panzers have an extremely convoluted supply path. Even though they will close the pocket again next turn, I hope the Germans may have bitten over more than they can easily chew, at least they will be delayed for a while.

In the center not much is happening. It appears that one panzer group is having a rest around Smolensk. I suspect he might be gassing them up. I withdraw and form a MLR with only a thin picket screen in front. I am a bit concerned about next turn here, but it is the best I can do.

In the south, large parts of the front is covered ony by a thin screen. I am out of units!

I evacuate the KV-factory in Leningrad this turn, I am taking no chances with that, and most of the ARM. Poltava is empty, and I have brought out most of Dnepropetrovsk as well. Kaluga and Bryansk are empty too. Kharkov and Tula might be in reach of a very ambitious panzer thrust, but just maybe barely. Well, I put a unit in front of Kharkov, not mch else I can do, and Michael T doesn't appear to be the raiding type, but perhaps that will change now when the bulk of the Soviet army is destroyed or neutralised. Well, we'll see.

This turn I did remember to take a screenshot of losses.

And OOB. It is encouraging to see that the Axis have only 1100 tanks operational. At least I am wearing them down. Some of the Panzers are beginning to show low CVs. I guess that might be why he has called a halt at Smolensk.

Wow.. not only 1100 tanks operational, but right at 2k tanks overall. I think that is lower lower than normal (the overall, not the operational as that seems to be about right). Manpower wise, he is in good shape, so it has just been the panzers suffering material losses at this stage.

2 million losses in 6 turns is pretty brutal.

The halt at Smolensk is for logistical reasons, not panzer losses. His rails need to catch up. You can expect the panzers to migrate to the flanks until he pushes his lines forward.

Your MLR in the center is too far forward, imo. Look at Notenome's sketch for fall back lines uptopic, this is where you should be building your next line. My sense is you are feeding reinforcements to Western Front, and he's killing them as fast as you push them forward. Your loss rate right now is unsustainable.

There is nothing between Smolensk and the Rzhev-Vyazma-Bryansk line worth defending, it's just a killing zone for him.

Sure, but he had to pay for it. More than half of his panzer power is gone for a while.