Matrix Games Forums

Would it not make more sense to play hotseat vs yourself so that you can control how the Japanese respond? I am just thinking otherwise you run the risk that you get deep into the game and the AI makes a move that you really don't think the Japanese would have made - which kind of spoils what you are trying to achieve here. I guess the downside would be the extra time it takes?

ORIGINAL: warspite1

Would it not make more sense to play hotseat vs yourself so that you can control how the Japanese respond? I am just thinking otherwise you run the risk that you get deep into the game and the AI makes a move that you really don't think the Japanese would have made - which kind of spoils what you are trying to achieve here. I guess the downside would be the extra time it takes?

The AI is definitely going to do things the Japanese would not have done.

The only way to turn the game into a pseudo simulation of history is to play both sides.

However, one would need an inestimable knowledge of every detail of history to be able to pull it off.

ORIGINAL: warspite1

Would it not make more sense to play hotseat vs yourself so that you can control how the Japanese respond? I am just thinking otherwise you run the risk that you
get deep into the game and the AI makes a move that you really don't think the Japanese would have made - which kind of spoils what you are trying to achieve here. I guess the downside would be the extra time it takes?

Yes, but I still need to make a lot of editing to get to the correct starting point. Mainly the progress of the various US supply and reinforcement transports.
To have those going as originally planned instead of being stopped, delayed or diverted is the crux of the test. After that the AI could eventually take over. The
way I have experienced it in the game untill now the AI is a more dangerous opponent than the real one. More aggressive, more reckless. To make it against the
AI would therefore perhaps be a stronger confirmation that my theory is valid.

BBF: I wouldn't put much emphasis on the industrial side as I think the result, either way, would have to surface within six to eight months. If the Philippine
US forces had survived and been reinforced relatively intact up to such time, and the supply line (Relief Route) upheld, it should influence greatly on the further
progress of the Japanese. Remember: The US-sponsored Philippine Army wasn't only what is was in December 1941 but also had a great potential for expansion
given some time.

Fred

ORIGINAL: Leandros
An example of this is the Pensacola convoy. It arrived in Brisbane on December 22nd but could possibly have been there a week earlier due to being kept in limbo in the pacific for a period, awaiting confirmation to proceed directly to Australia. This convoy I found so crucial in investigating “my” scenario that without it I don’t think I would have considered it at all.

How do you get up to a week's delay from the period the convoy spent while "in limbo"? The original (pre-war) sailing schedule from Oahu had an ETA for the Suva stop-over of around 12th Dec. Despite all the limboing after Dec 7th, the convoy managed to arrive at Suva on the 13th Dec. It then spent a day there while the SS Admiral Halstead made some urgent boiler repairs before the convoy sailed on the 14th direct for Brisbane.

When MacArthur decided he had to withdraw into Bataan he initiated a general reinforcement of Mindanao with units from the Visayan islands. This proved successful in that the Japanese Davao (Miura) Detachment was checked for three months, actually before the mentioned reinforcements arrived in any numbers.

The "success" in keeping the Japanese "in check for three months" needs to also be kept in perspective. The Miura Detachment operating from Davao consisted only of one reinforced Japanese battalion. As in the game, USAFFE started with the equivalent of a PA Division at 2/3 troop strength for the defence of Mindanao. And in early January, the first of the reinforcing PA regiments from the surrounding islands arrived.

It's surprising enough that Miura's force managed to keep hold of Davao for the three months you mention, let alone the fact it tried it's hand at an offensive push in January '42 after the much larger Sakaguchi Detachment had left the Island.

Regardless, I doubt Washington expected to still have Mindanao in play for very long after the initial Japanese landings there. They could not have known the bulk of the Japanese landing force was destined for the DEI rather than to take the rest of Mindanao.

Thank you, Buckrock - appreciate your inputs.

Fred

You're welcome.

But given it's "crucial" role in your hypothetical scenario, it would still be interesting to hear from you on how exactly the Pensacola Convoy could have arrived at Brisbane up to a week earlier if the historical high level command indecision that occurred after Dec 7th does not take place. As stated previously, I'm only seeing the "being kept in limbo" aspect putting the convoy about a day overall behind schedule.

ORIGINAL: Buckrock

You're welcome.

But given it's "crucial" role in your hypothetical scenario, it would still be interesting to hear from you on how exactly the Pensacola Convoy could have arrived
at Brisbane up to a week earlier if the historical high level command indecision that occurred after Dec 7th does not take place. As stated previously, I'm only
seeing the "being kept in limbo" aspect putting the convoy about a day overall behind schedule.

But, wasn't the convoy ordered several times to reverse its course? Did they make up for it?

Fred

This complicates my “test” where the main issue is to exploit the shortest supply route between Australia and the PI, the Moluccans. To get this right would, I suppose, necessitate an opponent that played like the RL up to the point where my intentions were firmly established and, after that, with a reaction time that mirrored the main Japanese aims and RL. A good example is the delayed reinforcing of the Bataan siege force and occupation of the rest of the PI.

You have to also take into account how the Japanese would have responded had something like this actually happened. They would not have continued as they did in the war just ignoring a resupply effort. They just would have diverted forces that went to Borneo to the Moluccas. Done.

I'm sure you've read extensively on this period in the war. I recently finished 'Fortress in the Pacific' and it has a ton of info early about the campaign in the PI and DEI. Based on this and other reading I've done, which highlights the massive difference in capability of the Allies vs the war-ready Japanese in this period, I can't help but think any resupply/reinforcement of the PI in this period by convoy would have been disastrous. There is a reason Japanese troops, ship crews, air pilots and leaders have more experience in their numbers in game during this period. Naval battles all went to the Japanese, air battles, even with the most advanced bomber on the planet, the B-17, went to the Japanese, and the quick invasions and fast moving, experienced troops were too much for any of the Allied forces here.

The Allied commanders needed time to learn, to understand their opponent's real capabilities, and to recognize that this was a new kind of war. No one had fought naval air power before this time, and any slow moving convoy to the PI would get just get sunk like the ships leaving the PI.

It may come as no surprise to some members here that I was not able to end my first WITP game as planned – it is intoxicating…. Also, there was one more thing I
had to go through before starting anew - that of an amphibious landing. I don’t think the manual is explaining this point very good. The idea of generating barges
out of loaded supplies first sounded a little queer to me. Would it not have been better to have that sort of cargo as a particular type? And the MTB’s? As it were,
I never (I believe) activated any barges.

Anyway, I decided to expel the enemy from Namlea before rounding off. You may remember that he went ashore there after his Ambon landing had been rejected due to
the extensive defense I had put up there. That was not a problem for him as there was no defense on Namlea – but a nice airfield. Namlea is also quite close to
Ambon.

My first attempt sort of misfired. I started to load up an “amphibious” AK with a Marine Raider battalion, one of the first to arrive from the US. Before I had
arranged for more ships or an escort it set off on its own. They probably wanted the glory all for themselves – or I shouldn’t have put in the destination before
I was ready to send them off. They went ashore nicely but after a day they were struck down by the hardy Japanese defenders - Japanese Marines. They surrendered!
I started anew with the 8th Marines. The loading took several days in the over-crowded an under-serviced (that has been remedied now) port of Ambon. Every day some
Marines were lost during the loading procedures. When the four transports were ready I gave them some destroyers for fire support, a couple of independent
bombardment missions and the A-24 squadron based in Ambon. Waiting in the wings, just SW of Ambon, was a convoy with a Base Force (with radar) and an EAB
(800-something) unit onboard.

Before that I had inserted part of the 8th and a small Base Force on the western side of Namlea, the idea was to have them move on the port of Namlea cross-country.
Due to terrain (I suppose) this force never came into play and it had to be supported, and reinforced, by air-dropped supplies and PBY’s landing on the coast.

The next attack went in nicely and within a day the enemy was driven out of Namlea so that the airfield could be used again. Two more days, with the support of the
newly arrived Base forces (I suppose), the defenders were destroyed “by attrition”.

In the meantime the opponent had been active on the southern part of Celebes, Java and Halmahera (Ternate). Sumatra was largely over-looked. This cost him dearly
in transports and light escorts due to “our” daily and nightly raids around the Moluccan Sea with combined CL and DD forces. Some Dutch units were particularly
effective. Even combinations of DMS’s. Lately, the enemy has been quite passive in the use of his carriers and heavy units in the central area. Could this be
because he has had some confirmed losses there? OTH, he has invaded the Andamans and created havoc around Ceylon.

I have neglected the islands along the Pacific supply lines with the result that several central islands have been invaded, necessitating major southerly
re-routings. The Lae-Buna area seem to be in a major build-up stage and the Japanese have landed in Milne Bay. They’re flying regular missions south of the
Torres Strait and against Port Moresby. PM has been reinforced by a US (56th) CD regiment.

Bataan fell on February 22nd after very heavy daily artillery bombardments and bombings – up to 700 guns participating with US losses 300-1500 per bombardment.
Apart from the many small garrisons in the Visayas there are still three resistance pockets on Mindanao, the main one being around Zamboanga. This last one is
bombed daily, the Japanese flying out of Jolo and Luzon.

For me, the chance of keeping the Philippine Relief Route open hinged around the holding of Menado. For that the artillery units in the Pensacola convoy were
“crucial”. You may remember that the first Japanese attempt failed, diverting them to Ternate. As we know, the Pensacola units became stuck in Suva for many weeks, only
now are they in the Moluccan area. To take back Menado implies a very major operation considering the Japanese bases skirting the Moluccan Sea now.

The “Second Barrier”, behind the “Malayan Barrier”, is now the moon-shaped Timor-Saumlaki-Ambon/Namlea line. Ambon/Namlea is heavily defended, Timor, too, while
Saumlaki need more reinforcements. The purpose of Saumlaki is to ensure the air route to Ambon. Timor need a second, eastern, resistance point. CV Saratoga is
operating out of Koepang, Timor. CV Lexington is under repairs in Darwin.

Is now the time to bail out?

Fred

Have a look at the Wargmr vs njp72 game right now. The PI is not taken and it's into mid-42. Wargmr may have some insights for you about the possibility or impossibility of reinforcing/resupplying the PI.

ORIGINAL: obvert

Have a look at the Wargmr vs njp72 game right now. The PI is not taken and it's into mid-42. Wargmr may have some insights for you about the possibility or impossibility of reinforcing/resupplying the PI.

I think this is an exceptional game where njp72 tried a very aggressive start with expansion in every direction but did not have enough to secure everything behind his perimeter, and Wargamr is especially good at taking advantage of that. I don't think the AI would ignore the programmed targets for long.

ORIGINAL: obvert

Have a look at the Wargmr vs njp72 game right now. The PI is not taken and it's into mid-42. Wargmr may have some insights for you about the possibility or impossibility of reinforcing/resupplying the PI.

Thank you, guys. Please accept my apology for my upcoming post. I was just working on it.

Fred

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

ORIGINAL: obvert

Have a look at the Wargmr vs njp72 game right now. The PI is not taken and it's into mid-42. Wargmr may have some insights for you about the possibility or impossibility of reinforcing/resupplying the PI.

I think this is an exceptional game where njp72 tried a very aggressive start with expansion in every direction but did not have enough to secure everything behind his perimeter, and Wargamr is especially good at taking advantage of that. I don't think the AI would ignore the programmed targets for long.

Exactly. But why has Wargmr decided not to reinforce the PI? That's the question that is relevant.

ORIGINAL: Leandros

This complicates my “test” where the main issue is to exploit the shortest supply route between Australia and the PI, the Moluccans. To get this right would, I
suppose, necessitate an opponent that played like the RL up to the point where my intentions were firmly established and, after that, with a reaction time that
mirrored the main Japanese aims and RL. A good example is the delayed reinforcing of the Bataan siege force and occupation of the rest of the PI.

ORIGINAL: obvert
You have to also take into account how the Japanese would have responded had something like this actually happened. They would not have continued as they did in
the war just ignoring a resupply effort. They just would have diverted forces that went to Borneo to the Moluccas. Done.

Doesn’t my above insert by you cover this….? This has also been my experience with the AI even if I believe it has been much cleverer, and faster, than the RL
would have been.

ORIGINAL: obvert
I'm sure you've read extensively on this period in the war. I recently finished 'Fortress in the Pacific' and it has a ton of info early about the campaign in
the PI and DEI. Based on this and other reading I've done, which highlights the massive difference in capability of the Allies vs the war-ready Japanese in this
period, I can't help but think any resupply/reinforcement of the PI in this period by convoy would have been disastrous.

Thank you for the tip. You have to consider my pre-requisite that the USN was wholly used for US purpose and not ABDA’s. Even several transports got through both
ways, none (that I know of – other than singular submarine missions) had any USN support. As late as the beginning of April a final mission was planned – Operation
PLUM – to supply Bataan by three inter-island freighters, supported by B-25’s and B-17’s flown up from Australia. Only the AAC was involved in supporting this. It
failed, partly because of a too tight schedule of the bombers meant to participate. Included in that force was a number of B-25’s. Imagine if Doolittle’s planes,
among others, had been used for such purposes instead. Surely, Doolittle’s raid was good for the domestic morale but it didn’t help the poor guys at Bataan very
much. I'm just hinting at actions taken that didn't do any good where it really mattered.

ORIGINAL: obvert
There is a reason Japanese troops, ship crews, air pilots and leaders have more experience in their numbers in game during this period.

So, you think the game is reasonably realistic in this respect?

ORIGINAL: obvert
Naval battles all went to the Japanese, air battles, even with the most advanced bomber on the planet, the B-17, went to the Japanese, and the quick invasions
and fast moving, experienced troops were too much for any of the Allied forces here.

Surely, but looking at each encounter there was as much the question of numbers and materiel that counted. A main part in my scenario is to get the numbers forward.
On Bataan the numbers were to US advantage. RL also shows that the Japanese were quite hung up in their original planning. They had to give up the (first) planned
occupation of Mindanao because some of the forces there were also meant to be used on the southbound advance through The Moluccans. The same happened in the game,
the AI actually withdrew completely from Davao, only to come back later. I wonder if the game is considering the number of potential Japanese conscripts in the
Davao area? Morrison, if I remember correctly, sets the number to 7.000.

ORIGINAL: obvert

The Allied commanders needed time to learn, to understand their opponent's real capabilities, and to recognize that this was a new kind of war. No one had fought
naval air power before this time...

Particularly the carrier war shows that the USN wasn’t behind the Japanese in that respect. Just my opinion. But in the beginning they wasted much time cruising
around the Pacific attacking small Japanese island garrisons. But, I’m sure it was good training.

….and any slow moving convoy to the PI would just get sunk like the ships leaving the PI.

Unescorted ships did got through as late as March….some went the other way, too.

Fred

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

I think this is an exceptional game where njp72 tried a very aggressive start with expansion in every direction but did not have enough to secure everything behind his perimeter, and Wargamr is especially good at
taking advantage of that. I don't think the AI would ignore the programmed targets for long.

Isn't this really what the Japanese did in RL? According to Morrison, before the war, Washington analysts deemed such behaviour as a clear over-stretch. Problem
is Washington didn't act like it were - coupled with committing the USN Resources wholly to ABDA and holding back the large mass of men and materiel already on
its way or about to leave the US for The Philippines.

Fred

ORIGINAL: obvert

Exactly. But why has Wargmr decided not to reinforce the PI? That's the question that is relevant.

I've quickly (and partly) read through the thread. How can he do it when the Torres Strait is closed and the Moluccan Islands were taken quite early? Also, at the time they
don't really need to be reinforced or resupplied as long as there are no assaults. I should think the US army could be feed by local sources but their materiel
situation would inevitably get worse.

That said, an interesting scenario. How much better would the PI army be, given the the increased period of training and organisation? The 10 divisions could be
fully manned and trained in larger formations. How much fuel for Aircraft training and patrolling and the navy and inter-Island transports.

Fred

Leandros,

I am not sure anyone has mentioned this yet but the game follows a script and that script can be different from game to game. I have heard that there are 12 possible scenarios. So, you may find that as you play repeatedly against the AI you may not get the same results.

Other people have much more information on this than I do.

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

ORIGINAL: obvert

Have a look at the Wargmr vs njp72 game right now. The PI is not taken and it's into mid-42. Wargmr may have some insights for you about the possibility or impossibility of reinforcing/resupplying the PI.

I think this is an exceptional game where njp72 tried a very aggressive start with expansion in every direction but did not have enough to secure everything behind his perimeter, and Wargamr is especially good at taking advantage of that. I don't think the AI would ignore the programmed targets for long.

Exactly. But why has Wargmr decided not to reinforce the PI? That's the question that is relevant.

NJP did not attack the Philipines until late in the last game. In fact, I think I still held Singapore. Check the AAR "What could possibly go wrong?" for a very detailed AAR from the beginning till January 1945.

In my opinion the supply of the Phillipines is not sustainable and throwing good ships after lost troops is foolish. The only advantage of trying would be that I would divert some of his assets to sinking cargo ships and I do not need to draw his attention/forces in that direction at that cost.

NJP will shortly finish taking the Philipines. He has lost some fuel but otherwise strategically it has not hurt him IMO.

It would be interesting to see how you played a game under these conditions Obvert.

ORIGINAL: Wargmr

In my opinion the supply of the Phillipines is not sustainable and throwing good ships after lost troops is foolish.

No problem with that. As long as the supply route is closed, it's closed. With no assets used to keep it open it must inevitably be closed.

ORIGINAL: Wargmr

NJP will shortly finish taking the Philipines. He has lost some fuel but otherwise strategically it has not hurt him IMO.

I agree. With the described scenario, Australia for a large part in Japanese hands, Mr. Quezon would probably have sent MacArthur home and sued for peace.
I wouldn't have blamed him...[;)]

Fred

ORIGINAL: Leandros

ORIGINAL: Wargmr

In my opinion the supply of the Phillipines is not sustainable and throwing good ships after lost troops is foolish.

No problem with that. As long as the supply route is closed, it's closed. With no assets used to keep it open it must inevitably be closed.

ORIGINAL: Wargmr

NJP will shortly finish taking the Philipines. He has lost some fuel but otherwise strategically it has not hurt him IMO.

I agree. With the described scenario, Australia for a large part in Japanese hands, Mr. Quezon would probably have sent MacArthur home and sued for peace.
I wouldn't have blamed him...[;)]

Fred

Baah, it is only a flesh wound!! The Allies are currently marching on Adelaide and Brisbane as we speak!!