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Turn 100

Eight attacks in the center, all succeed. This is deceptive though because a lot of the final odds are close to (or occasionally exactly) 2:1, especially when panzer reserves activate, which is often.

Southern Front starts to clear the South bank of the Don.

Turn 101 (mud)

4th Shock army and 3rd Tank army arrive in their assembly areas.
These are at least 20 miles from the front line to reduce the risk of detection.

Turn 102

Success!

All went smoothly although the second assualt was a close battle.

3rd Tank army even got some patrols across the Volkhov river, but crossing the river in strength is not part of the plan. We haven't got sufficient force in the area to push through the marshes to the West which are sure to be very heavily defended if we try.
Instead the strategic plan for the North is to secure the East bank of the Volkhov before turning South towards the Pola river to dislodge the Germans from their Valdai stronghold.

Attack sequence.

Turn 103

There is still the option of forcing a bridgehead across the Volkhov at the start of this turn. It's too ambitious though given the assets we have up here and would probably get bogged down.

Instead I continue with the original plan.

Position at start and end of turn.

Southern Front clears the last Axis positions from the South bank of the Don.

1st and 4th tank armies have already started to transfer North, Southern Front will follow them as soon as possible.

Turn 105

This is the first turn of the Summer campaign.

The Spring campaign was very hard going and failed to achieve a lot of its objectives. The plan for the start of Summer is to continue pushing in the center and the Valdai area. As more rifle corps are converted I hope to get a steamroller going by late Summer.

Southern front is now in reserve pending a decision on where to commit it.

The offensive in the North is more or less on schedule. 4th SA and 3rd TA will now turn South.

Steady progress in the center.

The Don bridgehead is firmly established but faces tough defenses. This is going nowhere fast.

Turn 107

Malinovsky's 9th army, the battering ram of Southern front, is commited to the Valdai offensive. Its orders are to punch a hole for 3rd Tank army to seize part of the Valdai hills before the Germans can react.
The rear area has been very little reconned and if it is defended at all the attack will probably fail.
4th Shock army maintains pressure further to the North.

Gaining ground in the Don bridgehead is hard work. Bagramyan has been a very reliable commander but even he is struggling here.

Turn 108

The Valdai offensive goes ahead as planned, although it nearly falls at the first fence when the usually reliable Malinovsky has a bit of an off day.
3rd Tank army follows through cautiously, failing to secure all its objectives due to concerns about a counterattack from nearby German armor. General Katukov, 3 TA commander, insists that his caution is justified.

4th Shock army makes a smaller penetration further North.

1st TA and 16th Army are sent North to reinforce the offensive.

Rshev is the first city to be liberated.

Turn 109

The arrival of 16 A and 1 TA give us a considerable force advantage in the Valdai area. The German 126th division is exposed and in the wrong place at the wrong time.

Position at the start and end of turn.

An attempt to take Tula by direct assualt from the North side ends in disappointing failure.

German defensive CVs in the Don bridgehead are getting crazy.

I make that 241 [X(]

The situation would improve once the winter sets in, the axis is facing a significant number of withdrawing units this year , the rivers would freaze and the commitment of units from reserve more dificult, due to increased movement cost .

by december the rifle corps would become the main manuver unit ; irc 150 RC plus 60 separate divisions;
allowing you to apply presure everywhere.

Breaking the Wehrmacht down is going to be an interesting challenge. Your 150 estimate sounds about right.

Turn 110

The 126th division surrenders. It's not exactly Stalingrad but it's a start.
As well as 14.000 ground loses the Luftwaffe also loses 54 level bombers in this combat. This is a growing trend.

Another German division is in trouble this week trapped against the Eastern shore of Lake Ilmen.

Frustratingly slow progress elsewhere.

What is the fort level of his lines ? 2 or 3 ?

It's a mixture of 2 and 3. Dave makes good use of fort units to build level 3 forts in strategically important areas.