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Turn 6 30-July-1941 Air War

Our air campaign continues with Soviet losses in key airframe types continuing to outstrip their production.



It is the second week of our concerted strategic bombing campaign and we have expanded our target list.

Moscow has fighter cover and remains just outside of our escorted bomber range.



In North Russia secondary industrial sites continue to show their vulnerability to bombing. The vehicle factory in Yaroslavl is bigger than the vehicle factory in Murom. But in spite of using more bombers which are less fatigued, indeed the very same airgroups subsequently were bombing Murom, and in spite of encountering less flak, bombing results in Yaroslavl continue to disappoint.



In central Russia last week we stopped expansion of the Il-2 factories meaning that even if they never stopped producing they would still produce 90 fewer Il-2s than they would have done. This week stopped expansion will mean a further 240 Il-2s never get produced on top of the 90. But in addition damage levels are high enough, and will persist over enough turns, that the probability the Il-2 factories will stop production sometime is significant. Unfortunately we left Kharkhov till last meaning a complete miss - allowing the Soviets to ratchet up their tank building capacity this turn. And finally in hindsight going for a resource production target was a mistake. After targetting key aircraft and vehicle factories, any remaining industrial bombing effort should go into ONLY resource production or ONLY heavy industry or ONLY arms industry. There is little analysis and no AARs that I know of to give guidance on startegic bombing so we are feeling our way with this one.


[This was originally post 102]
[The original post 101 has been moved to post 98]

Turn 6 Allocations

For information only - team allocations and submissions for turn 6 attached.

Also click the following links for

https://i.imgur.com/Pn9vs9B.png https://i.imgur.com/OFivVtL.png command boundaries

What do we call the next stage Operation?

We have our next phase worked out and we know what each of us will be doing. Everything is fixed except one important detail - the name! What will be the final decision? The nominations are

i) Operation Tottenritt
ii) Plan Stelteck
iii) Operation Hangman
iv) Operation Noose
v) Operation sugar free

What is your decision?
[The above was originally post 91]

Points: A Retrospective - Turns 1 To 6

We have been keeping a track of how we spend points - here are the results by purpose and command




[This was originally post 103]
[The original post 102 has been moved to post 101]

Turn 7 06-August-1941 North



Our commander in the North ponders their options. Two possibilities are presented - use Centre's help to "right hook" or isolate Leningrad with port bombing. Our North Commander decides on a third - direct assault. Undoubtedly the right decision. But it may have meant some duplication of effort as three commanders went different ways which would not have happened in a solo game.



After the breakthrough at the Luga our motorised cut through to the coast, while another pincer reaches Pushkin. Indeed there were enough movement points to have tried a direct assault on Leningrad which was then defended just by a fort. And of course this left a large number of units, experienced, trained and well equipped presumably, isolated to the east of Narva.

ORIGINAL: EwaldvonKleist
I had look at my T6 turn and I really screwed up. At least 5 units could have been placed in a much better way to make pocketing much more difficult. And finally I left the fact that the infantry can support the panzers completely out of consideration. I still expect a court martial for this, my U2 will help me to escape in this case

I am not entirely sure this was such a disaster for the Soviet team. I consider it more par for the course. Not wanting to lose a single unit or get into a single pocket is a great attitude for a Soviet player to have - but a pretty miserable one for the Soviet player themselves in 1941. Ultimately the one way to never lose anything in 1941 is to evacuate the entire Red Army to the Urals. But if you want to make an omelette you have to break some eggs.

However we suspect the Soviet team may have over reacted to these events. Given a balanced Soviet defence of all fronts, Axis should always be able to win in one by concentrating there. But the team got the palpable sense that other fronts were denuded of units in response to this turn of events leading to other effects elsewhere. In this sense this turn came to be seen as a turning point in our Barbarossa campaign.
[This was originally post 106]
[The original post 103 has been moved to post 102]

Turn 7 Army Group South

6th Army Continues to spread out Northeast and crosses the Dnepr to linkup with Army Group Center. After being outflanked the defensive position along the Dneper has completely high-tailed it East as fast as they could go.

11th and 17th Armies march further eastward to keep in contact with the Soviets. Both Soviet defensive positions from the previous turn are in an all out sprint East. The Romanians captured Odessa last turn and are now marching as fast as they can go.

1 corps of 1st PzG performs a HQBU to see what kind of damage can be done the next turn. There are some pretty obvious gaps in the Soviet line and a very hasty retreat and we shall see what opportunities present themself. Another panzer corps probes the Soviet defense ahead at Dnepropetrovsk, while the other remains in reserve.

AGS Northern Sector



AGS Middle Sector



AGS Southern Sector

Turn 7 06-August-1941 Centre

The frontage of centre reaches even wider. Not only does centre also almost connect East of the Pripyat marshes with forces to the south, some of its infantry are actually in those forces south of the marshes. And team orders are for centre to take over as much of the north command front as it can. This plus being understrength in motorised units has meant heroic efforts to keep the momentum up in the Centre. In spite of this some dramatic turns in the centre this turn. A surge to the north leaves units pocketed and the Soviet front completely outflanked. Our centre commander offers the prospect to the North of using centre's remaining motorised units as a northern "right hook." South of Smolensk infantry start another pocket to be. But on the upper Dnerpr route to Moscow it does look like there are some well dug in multiple lines of defence.

Turn 7 06-August-1941 Air War



The Soviets started their own aggressive air campaign last turn. This is the first turn where we have to consider how sustainable is the air war on our fighter arm. Less of an advance in our air war this turn as our land forces make far larger calls on their resources - but Soviet losses in key airframe types continue to outstrip their production.



But there is a noticeable decline in Soviet interceptions. In the North our commander gives the Luftwaffes fighter pilots some well earned R&R for their go leaving all the work to the bomber boys.



This is the first turn where we have large scale deployment of the Fi156C recon aircraft - very short range but with a very light footprint. Even when it has flown 100% of its mileage it has only consumed 1 ton of fuel. Effectively we have costless recon ability near our front - and we use it liberally.



The longterm downside is inevitably the Soviet airforce is shooting down more of our aircraft gaining experience and victories. But in the short run it is probably adding to their fatigue. Experience of using the Fi156C shows that about as many Soviet interceptors are being lost chasing the Fi16C as they succeed in destroying of it.



If the Fi156C were classified as a dogfighter it's kill rate would be evens with the Soviets - not bad for such a cheap aircraft with no guns. Is the Fi156C an underappreciated member of the Luftwaffe family deserving of more love and attention? Could this be Germany's U2-VS? We need a Dinglir to adjudicate.

It is the third week of our concerted strategic bombing campaign and we have expanded our target list again. But with more ground unit bombing/support this turn less bombing capacity is being stretched over them.



Moscow is now in our escorted bomber range - and we compound Soviet air difficulties in the air by bombing their aircraft factories on the ground. Perhaps a more patient play would be just to wait for their evacuation and see them damaged that way. The MiG-3 factories upgrade to Il-2 factories at the end of the year, but start from scratch for their expansion - so when and how to evacuate them from Moscow means some tough choices. But as the number of airframes is starting to be a key Soviet choke point in the short term, any contribution this might make could be disproportionately damaging to the Soviet air force.



Now that our ground forces have crossed the Dnepr the Kharkhov tank factory has been evacuated. But a suitable replacement has come into range - the Stalingrad tank factory. And on our Centre commanders advice we have added the Rocket Launcher factories to our target list. Our targets in central Russia have priority target equipment that are at the start of their factory expansion - and so very vulnerable to even small amounts of damage.
[This was originally post 107]
[The original post 106 has been moved to post 103]

Turn 7 Allocations

For information only - team allocations and submissions for turn 7 attached.

Also click the following links for

https://i.imgur.com/EDuHNSR.png, https://i.imgur.com/AU7ocos.png command boundaries

[The original post 107 has been moved to post 106]

Turn 8 13-August-1941 North



During the Soviet action phase last turn a rare example of a ground interdiction at sea. The Finnish air force can conduct air missions a row or two below their no move line. But the AI regularly goes beyond this and uses the Finnish airforce well to the south of Leningrad.



After the big events of last turn this was more a consolidation for the North. Reduction of the pocket East of Narva began, plus some more units were left isolated on the Luga. Oranienbaum was taken. And infantry created a new line in front of the Volkhov, and approached the Valdai. 4th Panzer group cut off the land route to Leningrad and occupied the main assault positions for the Neva. Seeing that the fortification level on the Eastern end of the Neva was still manageable left us extremely confident that Leningrad was not a question of if but of when. The only disappointment to date was the holding fast of the Janisjarvi line.

Turn 8 13-August-1941 Center



Our Velkie Luki pocket should not have been broken - but it was. A para drop provided the critical extra hex to make the link up. The battle results mean probably a lot of paratroops died before touching ground. In some ways the transports are outdoing their own fighters when it comes to aerial combat - it is not often the Luftwaffe goes in to battle with three fighters and loses four of them! This respite however is only delaying their demise - so it is in effect sacrificing an airborne brigade and transports to keep units alive for just one more turn.



Meanwhile our infantry pursues the enemy to their new positions being prepared on the upper Volga and even makes a first crossing against the upper Dnepr line. South of Smolensk the situation is still fluid as we chase after Soviet units that are probably not in their intended positions and have not dug in. Finally our forces meet at the eastern end of the Pripyat marshes - from now onwards the Centre-South boundary will be moving the other way.

Turn 8 Army Group South

6th Army continues to push northeast and solidify the line with Army Group Center. 17th, 11th, and Romanian Armies continue to push east as well.

1st Panzer Group finds an open hole Northeast and blasts all the way to Kharkov as well as taking Poltava. Kharkov had plenty of industry left, but the T34 tank factory already was evacuated. Everything else was in tact and the 20 point vehicle factory is a fine consolation prize as well as the SU-2 tactical bomber factory and 15 armaments. Dtown and Ztown are put under pressure, and Soviet forces will have to scramble to fill the very large hole in their line. The BIG question is, where will the panzer thrust head next?

Turn 8 13-August-1941 Air War



A big step up in Soviet aggression as they attack our airfields in the North and Centre. This caught us off guard - many of our fighter groups had been left casually alone on forward airbases. To be honest we had got lazy never expecting anything. So this was a useful corrective. The Soviet air force incurred heavy losses in these actions, and it will leave them more fatigued during our turn - which they will certainly pay the cost for. But losing so many fighters a turn is not something we can sustain - even though the majority were in airgroups set to withdraw in the next few turns.



The results from our own airfield bombing have seen a particular step up this turn.



And our ground commanders leave all fighter bombers switched to bombing missions and see no reason to send escorts for their bombing missions.



But to be charitable we leave a small gift for our Soviet opponenets - some fighter groups are left on an airbase near the front perfectly placed for Soviet airfield bombing - but will they take our gift?



Turn 8 13-August-1941 Economic

So far the advance of Axis forces has meant the following factories have been lost by the Soviet Union

47 Arms (4 Minsk, 3 Kirovgrad, 3 Krivoi Rog, 3 Odessa, 2 Kremenchug, 3 Nikolaev, 6 Dnepropetrovsk, 8 Poltava, 15 Kharkhov)
24 Hvy (4 Minsk, 3 Kirovgrad, 3 Krivoi Rog, 3 Odessa, 2 Kremenchug, 3 Nikolaev, 2 Dnepropetrovsk, 4 Kharkhov)
20 Vehicle (20 Kharkhov)
Su-2 (Kharkhov)

Su-2
The Red Air Force starts the game with 471 Su-2 aircraft, and no arriving airgroups arrive equipped with this airframe. The Su-2 factory at Kharkhov produces 12 aircraft a turn and continues until March 1942 - this would mean a production of 492 aircraft. However its location at Kharkhov makes it very likely that at some stage in every game it would have to be evacuated before the bad weather in 1941. This would mean it spends 17 turns being repaired - the probabilities would mean we should expect in just under 9 of them there would be no production. This would mean a loss of almost 107 aircraft. The fact that the Su-2 factory was overrun at Kharkhov means we know 408 Su-2s will now never be produced, or 301 fewer than we would have expected if the factory had been evacuated.

[The Economic Section was originally post 112]

In the fourth week of our concerted strategic bombing campaign we continue to attack targets accross the Soviet Union. But interceptors are an increasing priority. The first LAGG-3 factory comes into range near Gorky. And the red air force by the end of our turn has ceased to run any interceptions at all - our bombing of the MiGG-3 factory in Moscow is unopposed.

Turn 8 Allocations

For information only - team allocations and submissions for turn 8 attached.

Also click the following links for

https://i.imgur.com/hsY2RHd.png command boundaries (Centre-South only)

[The original post 112 was moved to the end of post 111]

Turn 9 Army Group South

Soviet forces are in full retreat. 6th, 11th, 17th, and the Romanian Armies are in an all out sprint east to maintain contact with the Soviets.

Instead of pushing north towards Voronezh as the Soviets were expecting, 1st PzG conducts a FEINT and circles around the Stalino area instead and cuts off all rail exits. All of the industry in the Stalino area is intact and is now trapped...38 armament points, 13 heavy industry, and 5 vehicle factories cannot evacuate. This is a huge blow to Soviet industry and the consequences will be felt for the duration of the war. A panzer corps will be isolated next turn, but at reasonable risk. 2 panzer corps in the rear will perform a HQBU to attempt the breakout next turn. JU52s supply the soon to be isolated panzer corps...and are highly successful as there is no red air force to speak of. We shall see how the Soviets respond to Stalino.

Upon hearing the news of Stalino rail being cut off, we now see a rare glimpse of footage as the Commander of Army Group South walks into a staff meeting:




Army Group South Sector

what a surprising move. i guess the bulk of the red army has to fight with sticks and shovels from 1943 on because of the stunning industry loses.

ORIGINAL: thedude357

Upon hearing the news of Stalino rail being cut off, we now see a rare glimpse of footage as the Commander of Army Group South walks into a staff meeting:

Now that is a strut and a half!

[The following was originally post 116]

It might be worth commenting on what happened on the lead up to this turns events in the South. We did have some hard going in the early turns in the South - so there was a legacy of feeling we were lagging there. However once we crossed the Dnepr it became obvious that the Soviet forces were heading in to opposite directions, northwards (presumably south west front) and eastwards (presumably southern front). So not only were they no longer mutually supporting, they left a big gap in the middle - with the name Kharkhov sitting in it. So great move by thedude357, but not totally unseen before. But this lead to the strategic position in turn 9 where the Soviets could not cover all of the possibilities we had opened up for ourselves.



In turn 9 even the forces to the east split again with one group going to Crimea and another to Stalino. So the paucity was there to see. As the Soviets evacuated the Il-2 factories at Voronezh it is clear they were worried about an attack in that direction. My own thoughts were for the motorised at Kharkhov to head north west to meet the 1st cavalry there. It would have displaced many airbases left in front of their troops. And converted a broad swath of hexes to friendly control allowing our infantry to race up to Kursk. But pretty lame compared to what thedude357 did. So it was a gasp to see the result, and genuinely innovative to see that great move. The motorised were placed so that every rail hex needing repair was within 5 hexes of them. If they were going to repair the hexes (a big if with auto soviet rail repair in 1941), they were also going to need to push one of those motorised units out by 1 hex. And that could not wait one turn for them to be surrounded. Added to this the port of Mariupol was bombed to put it out of action and the Airlanding division cut the rail link to Crimea. So even if they transported in many units, they probably could not have closed off the area south west of Stalino. Nevertheless a nail biting end of turn to see how tough the rescue operation of the Panzer corps would be next turn. But a great result this turn.

Turn 9 20-August-1941 North



Making the final approaches before the killer pounce.



[This was originally post 118]
[The original post 116 was moved to the end of post 115]

Turn 9 20-August-1941 Centre

Centre's ongoing rampage through the western front continues. Although still very loose, almost the whole of the Soviet front from Vyazma to Bryansk is outflanked or surrounded. There seems to be no Soviet forces between ours and Tula. South and North are starting to push their boundaries in to centre so that it can further concentrate. And loaned motorised forces are on their way to being returned. The battle for Moscow is on.

Turn 9 20-August-1941 Air War

This time we were ready



No more bombing in the North!

Original Turn 8 13-August-1941 Air War
But to be charitable we leave a small gift for our Soviet opponenets - some fighter groups are left on an airbase near the front perfectly placed for Soviet airfield bombing - but will they take our gift?

Did they ever!



They lost 20 aircraft destroying 9 of our fighters. And the same again for a second bombing run. Except of course the gifted airgroups were withdrawing at the end of last turn - as far as War in the East is concerned the Axis have lost nothing. The Allied commanders of War in the West though will be very grateful.

With the Soviet air offensive blunted we turn to ours.



Curiously many of their airbases are deployed in front of their ground forces. Perhaps they thought they were too far to be displaced. However our first cavalry division travelling directly East managed to displace four on its own



Palpably Soviet interception has considerably degraded.



Soon Soviet fighters do not even defend their own airfields.



And ground commanders see no need to use fighters in their gos.



The air losses speak for themselves

ORIGINAL: Dinglir, Zum Angriff: Dinglir (Axis) v HardLuck - HardLuck, U2 are welcome
I must admit I never bothered to do the math on the I-Type fighters.

On the I-16 Type 24 alone, the Soviets will have some 2574 spread over starting Air Groups, Reinforcements and the Reserve Pool.

I just figured I would never get "through" them before the Soviets had enough good fightera available.

There is a point when the numbers get big enough that the unthinkable has to be thought - but are our opponents up for it?

ORIGINAL: M60A3TTS, Zum Angriff: Dinglir (Axis) v HardLuck - HardLuck, U2 are welcome
I'd like to see a screenshot of Soviet air losses by airframe if someone can manage that.

ORIGINAL: M60A3TTS, Zum Angriff: Dinglir (Axis) v HardLuck - HardLuck, U2 are welcome
Thanks Dinglir. Game to date is what I'm after, not turn.
This is my calculation on the I-type....

We have started keeping a careful track of our opponents aircraft numbers. We know from common game scenario data how many aircraft they have in their pools and airgroups to begin with, and how many would come with arrivals or are made in their factories. Both sides also know the losses as they are presented by the user interface by both sides to both sides. The only information the Soviet team would know that the Axis does not is when aircraft factories do actually stop producing because of damage, although using the probabilities we can calculate the expected number. The results are contained in the spreadsheet attached to this post. The picture it paints for Soviet interception is stark



The Red Air Force is facing an interceptor crunch. Their number of modern interceptors (MiGG-3, LaGG-3, Yak-1) is now slowly declining. Ontop of losses exceeding their normal undisturbed production levels, Yak-1 capacity expansion has been arrested by bombing for turns now and given the damage we would expect at least one of their interceptor factories to not produce every turn. But even more so the number of I16 and I15 type fighters is rapidly declining. Overall interceptor numbers have decreased by a third even after turn 1.

The line in the chart called airgroups represents the number of fighter trained airgroups in the scenario, both at start and a few arrivals. It has been calibrated to the number of aircraft vertical axis at 20 per airgroup - the number the vast majority will have as their full complement. If our Soviet opponents have not created any new fighter trained airgroups, not allocated fighter bombers to bomber trained airgroups, and replacements are perfectly allocated then there should still be a few hundred spare in the pools. The reality is they usually will not be perfectly allocated and a global shortage will start to impinge on each airgroups complement of aircraft.

Currently the number of airgroups we see on the map each turn would represent the vast bulk of the Red Air Force if they have not created any new airgroups. Given the battering they are getting at the end of each turn it is clear they are all still set to receiving replacements. This could only have been achieved if many Soviet airgroups were swapping air models, both sideswapping and downgrading. Either they are spending points to manage the airforce this way, or they have left it to the auto airswap system of the AI. The problem is in this situation the auto swapping system can autoswap the same airgroup multiple times as it recalculates each turn which aircraft type is in shortage. Each swap can lead to aircraft being damaged and airgroup experience lost - further compounding their air problems. The AI will not itself prioritise replacements and modern equipment to more experienced airgroups. If all airgroups are left to the automatic system all airgroups will be roughly the same amount under complement with aircraft types just as likely to go to any level of experience or morale airgroup. To avoid this predicament the Soviet team will have to either micromanage the swap and replacement settings for airgroups, but that will mean overall more aircraft in the pool rather than in airgroups. Or they will have to manage the air force by spending points. The Soviet team has reached the interceptor crunch.

Attached: Soviet aircraft track

The attached spreadsheet has been shared with the Soviet team, although it has since been errored checked against total losses and some small typos corrected. It contains Bitter End v1.10 scenario data for Soviet airgroups, pools and aircraft factories together with formulas to produce an overall number of aircraft of each type for each turn. Others are free to download and use this as they wish. It is possible to update for scenario data in other versions. As I have not played the Soviets for a late turn in a recent version there are likely to be errors in later turn data. For instance it is not always clear to me what is the starting capacity for every aircraft factory. I would be grateful if you let me know of any errors you spot in this spreadsheet.

[HLYA admit it you are hooked - you want to do spreadsheets!][/quote]
[This was originally post 126]
[The original post 118 was moved to the end of post 116]

ORIGINAL: Telemecus

Turn 9 20-August-1941 Centre

Centre's ongoing rampage through the western front continues. Although still very loose, almost the whole of the Soviet front from Vyazma to Bryansk is outflanked or surrounded. There seems to be no Soviet forces between ours and Tula. South and North are starting to push their boundaries in to centre so that it can further concentrate. And loaned motorised forces are on their way to being returned. The battle for Moscow is on.

Someone help me out please. WTH are the units in the highlighted yellow box actually guarding for the Soviets? I know this is the German side but sheeeessshhhh. These units might as well be in Siberia imho.

What will the HI and Arms count be after the capture of all these towns?

I would wish you all good luck but I really don't think you need it at the moment.

ORIGINAL: Telemecus

It might be worth commenting on what happened on the lead up to this turns events in the South. We did have some hard going in the early turns in the South - so there was a legacy of feeling we were lagging there. However once we crossed the Dnepr it became obvious that the Soviet forces were heading in to opposite directions, northwards (presumably south west front) and eastwards (presumably southern front). So not only were they no longer mutually supporting, they left a big gap in the middle - with the name Kharkhov sitting in it. So great move by thedude357, but not totally unseen before. But this lead to the strategic position in turn 9 where the Soviets could not cover all of the possibilities we had opened up for ourselves.



In turn 9 even the forces to the east split again with one group going to Crimea and another to Stalino. So the paucity was there to see. As the Soviets evacuated the Il-2 factories at Voronezh it is clear they were worried about an attack in that direction. My own thoughts were for the motorised at Kharkhov to head north west to meet the 1st cavalry there. It would have displaced many airbases left in front of their troops. And converted a broad swath of hexes to friendly control allowing our infantry to race up to Kursk. But pretty lame compared to what thedude357 did. So it was a gasp to see the result, and genuinely innovative to see that great move. The motorised were placed so that every rail hex needing repair was within 5 hexes of them. If they were going to repair the hexes (a big if with auto soviet rail repair in 1941), they were also going to need to push one of those motorised units out by 1 hex. And that could not wait one turn for them to be surrounded. Added to this the port of Mariupol was bombed to put it out of action and the Airlanding division cut the rail link to Crimea. So even if they transported in many units, they probably could not have closed off the area south west of Stalino. Nevertheless a nail biting end of turn to see how tough the rescue operation of the panzer corps would be next turn. But a great result this turn.

Soviets are grossly out of place strategically. Good jobs taking advantage of the situation. When you have someone on the ropes hit harder Keep it up