T49 – 24 May 1942
Weather continues to clear, just a few patches of light mud in the north.
Still can't isolate Osinovets, managed 5-4 for the interdiction score so have to hope that is reducing the shipping capacity.
Had one of those ideas that turn out to have been pretty stupid, decided to see if I could take NW Leningrad from just one hex – the gain is then it isolates the key hex. The disadvantage was its not a very good idea
But did manage to grab another wooded hex- just
So essentially no way to speed this up, I can't get an isolation over the lake but I should be able to cut the city off overland [1].
Accepting this means I have too much allocated just to Leningrad. First alternative was to see if i could make gains around the Lake, even if I can't take all the ports, capturing a few will reduce their naval interdition and deny a base for the VVS' fighters that are being very annoying. Can add this attack to the collection of 'not good ideas' I had this turn.
Final attempts to make any progress in the Valdai region, in some sectors the Soviets had made localised gains but managed to force them back (the side with no forts really suffers in this sort of restrictive fighting).
Orel retaken and 9A made some small gains but decided to rest 3PzA for another turn and think about targets. My worry here is overextension as its clear the Soviets are well set to exploit any gaps.
All those are on this sector and they've made no effort to exploit the wins. I'd rather have a fresh force to take advantage than over-commit. Not least as I still want to free up 2 PzA (even if i am still not sure for what purpose).
Finished off last turn's pocket and gave 2PzrA a chance to recover – my assumption is that Voronezh is going to be well defended.
East of Kharkiv, the rest of 4A, elements of 2 Hungarian and 6A followed up the retreating Soviets. Lacking mobile assets they couldn't engage with the new Soviet defensive line especially as their advance had been slowed by constant brigade sized rearguard actions.
The main blow fell again on the Donets bend as 1 Pzr A exploited the gaps torn last week and pushed past Voroshilovgrad as the Soviet 51A, in particular, fell apart. Even so, the flanks were poorly secured with seemingly fresh Soviet formations north and south of the salient.
Losses – this turn made use of that odd Pzr formation with all the French tanks. Soviet losses high enough to hurt – and most of those annoying brigades routed with 90+% losses.
Air war has calmed down after my big win a few turns back. I am getting a lot of uncontested GS for the first time in the game.
Steady stream of destroyed Soviet units. No real pockets but clusters of 2-3 divisions slowly adds up.
Perhaps worth a digression to my in-game strategy. I've gone back to some old saves to do a bit of testing on Soviet resiliance at this stage. Very roughly if a rifle division is < 60% TOE its very vulnerable to a retreat becoming a rout (or in other words roughly doubling the losses). If a relatively fresh division takes losses around 5-600 in a single battle that seems to weaken it towards 60%.
In consequence, the Soviets have to refit the assets, and have this requires them to organise a flow to/from depots to do so. But it takes say a turn to a depot, a turn not moving on the depot and then a turn back into the front line. So if I hit a narrow sector hard, and repeatedly, I can overwhelm this normal cycle, that in turn gives me the chance to inflict more losses thus slowing them from reaching the point where they have a ready reserve if a given formation falls apart.
Or in other words, sustained effort finally clears the way to movement.
But of course the reverse applies, each win is costing me CPP, in the end, as with AGC, I have to rest, that allows them to recover. In my mind (and here my last game against Steven is relevant) its the trade off between those 2 states that determines the relative balance once we enter 1943.
[1] Much later my opponent sent me this
So essentially there is no stored freight in Leningrad, the units are taking enough supply by truck from Osinovets but the city is doomed if/when I can isolate as they will collapse the turn after.