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Another little mysterious result from this turn:

Yep, pretty sure you got the right of it. Happens to me, where I can't track down the A2A losses and it always seems to happen with LRCAP going on only.

With respect to Bataan, does weather effect adjusted AV? Perhaps you were attacking during a roaring thunderstorm with heavy fog and tornadoes or something.

You should be able to track odd losses in the Operations report.

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I don't think there's any real substance - any real "oomph" - behind the greatly increased Japanese adjusted defense. If there was, I would think the Allied would've gotten a bloody nose. So despite the increase, I'm seeing a fatigued enemy low on supply with declining forts, but an enemy that still has a bit of fight left.

It appears doubly strange in that he got the fort bonus on the 14th when his adjusted AV was low but didn't get it on the 16th when his adjusted AV went high.
Go figure?

You do get neat messages in the operations reports, but it is never the full story...here are some recent ones for me. These messages came after it's sweep mission and during the landing phase.

Damaged Ki-43-Ic Oscar from 1st Sentai does not return, pilot reported killed
2LT Tsukamoto F. of 1st Sentai is credited with kill number 3
Damaged Ki-43-Ic Oscar from 1st Sentai shot down on way home

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I don't think there's any real substance - any real "oomph" - behind the greatly increased Japanese adjusted defense. If there was, I would think the Allied would've gotten a bloody nose. So despite the increase, I'm seeing a fatigued enemy low on supply with declining forts, but an enemy that still has a bit of fight left.

It appears doubly strange in that he got the fort bonus on the 14th when his adjusted AV was low but didn't get it on the 16th when his adjusted AV went high.
Go figure?

Forts were one less...

7/17/44

Thailand: Both sides are on fumes here, though the Allies are much stronger in comparison. Tomorrow's attack at Ayuthia should destroy a lot of very weak enemy units, judging by the impact of heavy 4EB results there today.

I don't know yet if John is planning to make a strong stand in Indochina or if he instead plans a gradual withdrawal up the coast into China. That makes sense, simply because the Allied position in and north of Luzon threatens to cut off Indochina.

The Allied SEAC army will move east to attend to Indochina in the near- and medium-terms.

The Allies are also about to outrun the radius of heavy bombers from big airfields with good supply. In the short- and medium-terms, I'll move a lot of heavy bombers and good fighters over to Luzon for the pending Peep Show campaign.

Eventually, I'll have to turn my attention to Malaya and Singapore, but I'll poor everything into Peep Show for now, with a nod to Indochina from the ground troops already committed to that region.

7/17/44

DEI: Mini KB is heading north in the Makassar Strait. I have a decision to make.

7/17/44

Fun House: Laoag will fall to the Allies tomorrow, when there will also be another key attack at Bataan.

Can you afford a flank speed move against the mini - enhanced kb?

I am guessing you could take close to 2000 victory points, smash a pain in your rear, and not take anything away from your next operation.

You and I both know exactly where the mini kb is going.

I think there's a stronger argument not to roll the dice, hoping for a jackpot but more likely using up a lot of fuel and accumulating wear and tear.

There is the counter argument that this is the right spot for rolling those dice, but many of my fleet carriers have been at sea, non stop, for three quarters of a year. I'm whipping my mule around the barnyard, not impressing anyone with it's speed or agility, but working it hard, perhaps too hard, but getting the plowing done and the crop in the ground.

Or so I think.

I didn't count hexes, is it even doable?

The CV's are in good enough shape to do it....I think. If you stood down the planes, they may really all be in maint mode though.

This would be a surprise move and out of character for you no doubt, I think the engagement on your terms not his. Seeing how John shows his cards routinely, you will no doubt have other opportunities, but will you have the gap in operations that you have now?

1 flank speed run, 1 cleanup day, 3 days back.

John will never feel safe ever again 25 hexes around the deathstar.

I have no idea how John's carriers must look, but they've been away from home for an awfully long time now, haven't they?

I'm not sure about John's carriers. I think they've been at sea a long time, but there've been long gaps where I wasn't sure where they were. For all I know, they were resting and upgrading in Singers or the Home Islands.

Some of my carriers are due for 10/43 upgrades, others for 1/44. I don't know if or when I'll ever have a chance to upgrade. The needs at the front have been too pressing, and until Manila the closest port for upgrades were Townsville (for some) and Sydney (for others). On this score, I get a 20% Administration and 60% Aggression rating. It's hard to get yard time when the fleet penetrates 2,000 miles into enemy waters.

For a fleet that has ben at sea for some time your carriers look almost pristine.

I have had mine operating in SoPac for 2 months without a break in mid '43 and both my carriers and escorts are way more beat up than that.

Many are carrying sys damage in the teens.

Sure you might ring up some engine damage making the high speed run but with a level 9 port at Manila I don't see that being a major impediment to ongoing operations.

IMVHO, at some point you have to take out one of these sections of KB, but I would make sure everything is in place to guard the fort while DS is away.

As you often comment, you are playing JIII, not the japanese empire, and are playing to his weaknesses.
JIII must also consider he is playing CR, not Halsey, and that CR would never take on KB.

It would be better to fight now, rather than in the middle of an Invasion (YOur Divisions can wait)

It is next to impossible to gain a fight if the enemy wishes to avoid one. There's no way John wants to chance Mini KB against Death Star, so the only way a carrier battle happens is if he makes a colossal blunder. That's unlikely - he's too aware of what's going on and what the possibilities are. I bet he's counting hexes too.

However, I have refueled all my combat ships...on the off-chance that Mini KB keeps coming.

I think my carriers are pristine because nearly all movement has been two hexes or three or five at a time. Very seldom did the carriers move more than six hexes in a turn. That has to be the reason for the negligible wear and tear.

Right now, my BBs, CLs, and DDs are topped off with fuel. My carriers and CAs are probably at about 75%. So they're good to go. I have 120k fuel remaining on tankers and oilers in the PI. I have 105k in the DEI. I have 55k at Miri, increasing at about 2k per day. Peep Show will involve well over a thousand ships. It won't be going far, so the fuel stores are probably sufficient into the medium term.

At the far end of a 5,000-mile LOC, I can't afford to expend fuel on an iffy mission that John will do everything he can to avoid...unless I feel strongly about the possibilities.

He probably wants all his carriers to launch a full KB attack combined with massed LBA in the Formosa region. He'll get what he wants, but probably not until the Allied air force has worked over Formosa's airfields, possibly with an assist from bombardment TFs that can replenish at Manila. This is going to be a mighty battle.

The war will be won first on land, and then the air. You are correct to stay home and attend to your knitting. If he offers, fight, If he doesn't, move on forward.

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

It is next to impossible to gain a fight if the enemy wishes to avoid one.

Except when you step out of your comfort zone and do the unexpected.