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Kunming and the Burma Road:

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

And the crossing of Algeria:

Are these units heading for the Russian front? If not, then that's a lot of good armor/mechanized units that won't be attacking the USSR come Barbarossa.

Non-Japanese controlled Chinese cities. Blue is Communist, and orange is Nationalist:

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

And the crossing of Algeria:

Are these units heading for the Russian front? If not, then that's a lot of good armor/mechanized units that won't be attacking the USSR come Barbarossa.

They're heading for Iraq and Persia, then the Soviet Oil fields. If they are needed to help secure the Sinai along the way, that's fine, too. They were already across into Africa, and it would take at least as long (without rail moves) to get them to the Polish/Rumanian border. I don't expect to have time for eveything I need to reach that border for a winter Barbarossa anyway, so I made the decision to sind them this way in hopes of activating Turkey.

This forces the Soviets to defend two borders. This image sould make Orm happy (ish). Since the USSR is going to have to mount a strong defense here, that leaves fewer strong units on the Polish/Rumanian border, so the German units there should still be effective. With 2 Italian HQs already in the region, there shouldn't be any supply problems, I don't think. (Of course, Siberia is going to have to be abandoned to the Japanese if they want it).

I just counted it out, and the German Armor group is 6-7 impulses away from the Suez, which puts them about 9 impulses away from being ready to attack Persia, maybe 10. That should bring us to M/A '41 and a standard M/J '41 Barbarossa. Or I can start Barbarossa earlier, if it looks like a good option. If Italy keeps out of it, the Soviets will have to DOW Italy to get into Iraq . . . or pull troops off that border. I don't think they'll want to make the DOW before the USA passees War Appropriations . . . losing 3-4 chits? Bad news.

I would start Barbarossa as early as possible. I shouldn't wait on Guderian and the Italians to be in position for that, if possible. When the rest of the army is at the Rumanian/Polish border with the USSR, attack. That the assault in Persia is going to start a little later isn't of any concern to you. The reinforcements the USSR can get should be the concern of the Euroaxis. The sooner the USSR is going to get attacked, the weaker he is...

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

I just counted it out, and the German Armor group is 6-7 impulses away from the Suez, which puts them about 9 impulses away from being ready to attack Persia, maybe 10. That should bring us to M/A '41 and a standard M/J '41 Barbarossa. Or I can start Barbarossa earlier, if it looks like a good option. If Italy keeps out of it, the Soviets will have to DOW Italy to get into Iraq . . . or pull troops off that border. I don't think they'll want to make the DOW before the USA passees War Appropriations . . . losing 3-4 chits? Bad news.

There are no Italian TRSs?? Those boys are going to languish in the desert for 40 days and 40 nights! It's a travesty.

ORIGINAL: paulderynck

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

I just counted it out, and the German Armor group is 6-7 impulses away from the Suez, which puts them about 9 impulses away from being ready to attack Persia, maybe 10. That should bring us to M/A '41 and a standard M/J '41 Barbarossa. Or I can start Barbarossa earlier, if it looks like a good option. If Italy keeps out of it, the Soviets will have to DOW Italy to get into Iraq . . . or pull troops off that border. I don't think they'll want to make the DOW before the USA passees War Appropriations . . . losing 3-4 chits? Bad news.

There are no Italian TRSs?? Those boys are going to languish in the desert for 40 days and 40 nights! It's a travesty.

There are 2 Italian TRS, but they have other obligations for the next turn (I think). They might be able to assist, but might not. I've considered it, once these boys reach Gabes, but they won't be able to enter Iraq until Gudieran gets there anyway, so the TRS might be better used transporting Italian troops instead.

Due to an error in calculations, the Commonwealth lost out on 4 BP this turn, which isn't as bad as it could have been. I've made it as far as Factory Destruction, and I think there are going to be some issues/questions regarding the builds I chose for this turn, but I do have my reasons. They may not agree with what you might do, and they may be flat-out wrong, but at least they are part of an overall strategic plan I've set in motion (as of about 2 turns ago). As Barbarossa approches, I'm trying to build things so that the maximum units arrive at the correct times. Of course, you never really can tell what the "correct time" is going to be, but I've made an educated guess at it.

Nope. Not gonna fill you in now. It's been a long day, and I'm getting very tired. Once I've finished up the final stages of the End of Turn sequence in the morning, I'll start posting the standard reports. I'll roll for the weather, and let the debates begin as to how the winter should be played.

I sense there is a little bit of frustration and/or bafflement at my decision to cross the Sahara with so many high caliber Panzers (pun intended). I'll simply say that it may be an unusual move, but this is an unusual game so far, and whether it works or not, I'm glad I've tried it. I'll never know how a tactic might benefit me unless I try it at least once.

Until the morning, then (my morning, that is).

If you still want to bring those Germans to the Middle East to attack the Caucasus from the back door, sail them across with TRS (or sail them back to Europe to rail to Poland/Rumania in Jan/Feb). You can send the German TRS to the Med for extra lift (although maybe it's too risky now that so much of the Kriegsmarine is languishing in the drydocks of the Reich).

Also, viz. Chinese surrender, I agree with deferring it to 1941. If you don't need to do it to get the chits for War Appropriations, don't. But I see opportunities for screwing with Japan's redeployment right as they're trying to bring their army back to the coast from the interior.

Surrendering China!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I can not understand why you would want to surrender China?
USA is close to being in the war.
Once USA is in the war Japan will have to take naval turns.
While China is alive Japan has to keep its army in China.
As soon as China surrenders all those units are free to redeplore to other thearters.
I would never surrender China.
Make him fight you.
By the way I have enjoyed the AAR.
Thanks for taking the effort.
regards John

ORIGINAL: composer99

If you still want to bring those Germans to the Middle East to attack the Caucasus from the back door, sail them across with TRS (or sail them back to Europe to rail to Poland/Rumania in Jan/Feb). You can send the German TRS to the Med for extra lift (although maybe it's too risky now that so much of the Kriegsmarine is languishing in the drydocks of the Reich).

Yeah, trying to get the German lift to the Med is a bit too risky right now. The reason I don't know if I'll be able to use the Italian TRS this turn to help the Germans get to the Middle-East is that one way or another I need a 4th Italian Corps in Syria or Transjordan. My little goof that allowed the Suez defenders to retreat to the Sinai means I probably need to bring that Corps over from Italy at the first opportunity. Italy desperately needs the Oil fields of Iraq -- half its fleet has been paralyzed for 2 turns now, ever since taking Gibraltar. That makes this a priority.

ORIGINAL: composer99

Also, viz. Chinese surrender, I agree with deferring it to 1941. If you don't need to do it to get the chits for War Appropriations, don't. But I see opportunities for screwing with Japan's redeployment right as they're trying to bring their army back to the coast from the interior.

It's definitely the "screwing with Japan's redeployment" that is making me itch to surrender, but I'm still aiming to get through J/F '41. That may end up being too late, and then it's time to force Japan to conquer or screen. I just spent the last Chinese BP on a CAV Division, with a 50/50 chance of it being Communist. It wasn't, so it's going to end up in Kunming, with no more reinforcements on the way for the Commies.

ORIGINAL: BallyJ

Surrendering China!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I can not understand why you would want to surrender China?
USA is close to being in the war.
Once USA is in the war Japan will have to take naval turns.
While China is alive Japan has to keep its army in China.
As soon as China surrenders all those units are free to redeplore to other thearters.
I would never surrender China.
Make him fight you.
By the way I have enjoyed the AAR.
Thanks for taking the effort.
regards John

You're very welcome, John.

China now has only 4 units left (including the Communist MTN unit. For the purpose of "keeping the army in China", well, China really isn't alive. The same units that are needed to screen the remaining defenders are the ones that would end up on garrison duty, so everyone else is free to redeploy anyway.

With Suez and Sian now taken, the only remaining actions that might generate US Entry chits are aligning Iraq and taking over Kunming (in which case, China is lost). So, the USA is still probably 2-3 turns away (minimum) from passing War Appropriations. Once that is done, the US still is another turn or two away from actually entering the war.

Before the End of Turn Report, for those keeping track here is the US Entry chit summary for S/O '40:

Impulse: 5
Attack on Sian: Assault, Fractional Odds .513 (Yes), Roll = 8 = -/1S (Converted to Retreat, GARR destroyed, INF retreated NW of Mao, attackers disorganized) USE-9 (no chit)

Impulse: 9
Attack on Suez: Blitz, Roll = 5+1 = 6 = -/R (attackers disorganized, defenders Retreat to the East) USE-2 (+1 chit, 226 [2]) Ja

End of Turn:
USA drew 1 marker to the Ja Entry Pool (279 [3])
USA chooses Chinese Build Aircraft (Ja), adjusted by -3; USE-Auto (no chit moved)

Ge/It Entry: 31
Ge/It Tension: 22
Chance of DOW: 0%
Japan Entry: 28
Japan Tension: 21
Chance of DOW: 0%
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I also thought you might like to see the Neutrality Pact positions:

And here it is, my End of Turn Report for S/O '40:

Partisans
1 Partisan in Hungary (CW) placed in Debrecen

Entry Markers
USSR placed 1 marker on Defense (291 [3])
Germany placed 2 markers on Offense (281 [3], 54 [1])

US Entry
USA drew 1 marker to the Ja Entry Pool (279 [3])
USA chooses Chinese Build Aircraft (Ja), adjusted by -3; USE-Auto (no chit moved)

Ge/It Entry: 31
Ge/It Tension: 22
Chance of DOW: 0%
Japan Entry: 28
Japan Tension: 21
Chance of DOW: 0%

Pre-Build Scrapping
None

Builds:
China (1): 1 x CAV Division
CW (15): 2 x INF, 1 x TERR, 2 x TRS(2nd)
France (0): 1 x Retrain Pilot, 1 x Convoy
USA (20): 2 x TRS(1st), 1 x CV(2nd), 1 x NAV-3, 1 x Pilot, 1 x Factory
USSR (17): 2 x INF, 1 x MECH, 1 x ARM
Germany (19): 1 x INF, 1 x MIL, 1 x TERR, 2 x MECH, 2 x SUB(1st)
Italy (11): 2 x TERR, 1 x LND-3, 1 x SUB(2nd), 1 x Pilot
Japan (16): 1 x INF, 2 x MIL, 1 x CVP-0, 1 x AMPH(2nd), 1 x TRS(2nd), 1 x SUB(2nd)

N/D '40 Gearing Limits (above 1):
China: 2 x CAV
CW: 4 x Infantry, 3 x Ship
France: 2 x Ship
USA: 4 x Ship, 2 x Air, 2 x Pilot, 2 x Factory
USSR: 3 x Infantry, 3 x Armor
Germany: 4 x Infantry, 3 x Armor, 3 x Submarine
Italy: 3 x Infantry, 2 x Submarine, 2 x Air, 2 x Pilot
Japan: 4 x Infantry, 3 x Ship, 2 x Submarine, 2 x Air

Conquest:
Syria cc by Italy
Nyasaland cc by Italy

China Declined to Surrender to Japan

Factory Destruction:
Japan destroyed Blue Factory in Sian

Reinforcements:
CW assigns Pilots to FTR-3 and CVP Class-1
CW places TERR in Delhi, SUB in Liverpool, 2 CV in Plymouth, CVP in Bristol, FTR-3 in London
USA assigns Pilots to NAV-3 and 2 CVP
USA places SUB, NAV-3, 2 CVP, MTN Division in SD, HQ-A Eisenhower and MOT Division in New York
USA removes 2 CVP Class-2 from the map
USSR assigns Pilot to LND
USSR places LND in Gomel, 2 INF and ART in Vitebsk
Germany assigns Pilot to FTR
Germany places TERR in Morocco, MIL in Bremen, FTR and 2 INF in Konigsberg, 2 SUB in Kiel
Italy places TERR in Uganda and Anglo-Egyptian Sudan, GARR in taranto, BB in La Spezia
Japan assigns Pilots to 2 NAV and CVP
Japan places Warlords in Lanchow and Chengtu, MIL in Fukuoka, MIL and ARM in Tokyo, CV with CVP in Tokyo, 2 NAV in Sasebo

Trade Agreements:
CW cancels its Trade Agreement with France

Victory Totals
Axis: 32
Allies: 35

Initiative:
Allies win Initiative 10-5
Allies choose not to move first in N/D '40

Turn 8 N/D '40

Allies win Initiative 10-5
Allies choose not to move first in N/D '40
+1 Allied Initiative

Impulse: 1
Weather: 9
(See the next post for the nasty winter ahead)
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Though it may not seem like it, at the start of this 2nd year of the war, the Allies actually held their own. Yes, they lost Suez, but that gained a nice US Entry chit in the Ja Entry Pool . . . and, because Italy screwed things up, both defenders are still causing a problem for the Axis in the Sinai (which is historically both one of the least hospitible evnironments in the world and also, dating back to ancient times, the most active battlefield the world has ever seen). Also in the Middle-East, the French lost Syria. No surprise there, and it means Iraq is sure to align with Italy very soon . . . but that was something Italy planned to do 2 turns ago. That means for the 2nd turn in a row Italy has only been able to reorganize about half of its fleet. Not bad, I'd say, for the tiny force the Allies had available to foil Axis plans in the region. We all knew they couldn't be held back forever, but another turn bought is another turn gained.

US Entry continues to demonstrate the fickle nature of the average American. At the start of the turn, in early September, it looked like there might be problems here. Although the USA only drew 2 chits (including the End of Turn chit), they were both high. Yes, I consider a '2' to be a high chit in a year that has a 55% chance of drawing a chit with a lower value. So, even though things were looking bad at the start of the turn, Halloween was definitely a "trick or treat" event. The USA got a treat, and they got to trick the Axis, too. And all of this happened about a week before the 1940 Presidential election. Do you think FDR will win an unprecedented 3rd term in office? I do. [;)]

China is on its last leg, and given the first weather roll (see below), a Surrender might have been worth it. Then again, Japan isn't likely to have much success with either of its current needs: redeployment or an attack on Kunming.

The Soviets may have some trouble redeploying for a Barbarossa defense, given the fact that a new ice age has set in. If things look too scary as the end of December approaches, they can still do a little border stuffing by moving some of the air forces back toward the border, but it looks like Germany will be able to get enough units there to break the Pact early next year using rail moves and the better movement rates allowed by Snow in the N. Temperate Zone.

At long last, the RN is finally getting some results! Two victories may not seem like a lot, and neither was truly decisive, but it's a lot better than the ongoing failures of the first year of the war. Most of the CW convoy pipeline managed to get into place, and the rest should be easy to fix. Also, almost every naval unit not needed elsewhere was able to rebase to Plymouth; there are now 39 ships docked there (I'll show what they are soon, if I can figure out how to do it easily). The one thing lacking is sealift near the UK. Of the 4 TRS available to the CW, 3 are docked in Cape Town and Bombay, with the last one in Nigeria (yes, Nigeria). These can either evacuate Wavell (but not the other 2 units, I'm afraid), or they can bring him more troops. One of the Italian TERR units went to Anglo-Egyptian Sudan, but that's just a speed bump. With 8 factors still sitting in the Sinai, if Wavell wanted to make a run for Khartoum, he might be able to get it -- Italy will have 2 stacks, widely separated, to deal with in East Africa, then. Of course, Wavell will need to get to Port Sudan first, to keep in supply, and that might not be easy to do in the short term.

The USA now has all 3 of its Pacific Ocean Victory Cities double-stacked with the reinforcement of Pago Pago. This may hurt the CW by forcing Japan to claim its lands instead of trying or the US territories, but it means there are good bases to launch a counter-offensive when the time comes.
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A quick reminder of what I defined as the Axis goals for S/O '40:
1. Japan needs to finish off the Communists, and if it can, the Nationalists, too, then relocate its units into position for future warfare.
2. Italy needs to align Iraq, eliminate French defenders in Syria, and try to finish off the CW units in the Suez area.
3. Germany needs to finish the job in Morocco, then redeploy for Barbarossa. One decision that needs to be made concerns Murmansk and the possibility of taking it from the USSR.
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All three of these were only half completed. The Nationalist Chinese are still around and Japan hasn't started its redeployment yet; Iraq is still Neutral (though not for long) and the CW still has a strong presence in the region; and Germany hasn't finished its redeployment for Barbarossa.

On that last point, the German decision to cross the Sahara now looks like it might have been a mistake. How often does it actually Rain in the Sahara, though? I stick by the decision, because if you look at the Storms over Spain (which is where they would be now), the terrain would be almost as bad for movement. Of course, they'd be in supply the whole way without risk of it being cut. But who expects Rain in the Sahara? Apparently not me. [:)]

Once Italy has full control of Iraq, its fleet should be much more menacing . . . and active. After Iraq is aligned, it's time to chase the CW away for good.

As for Japan, it needs to Ground Strike the lone Communist MTN unit at the first possible opportunity. If it can do that, it doesn't even need to try to destroy it; right now it's more important that the best troops redeploy for useful activities . . . invasions, Siberian conquest, walking to India, whatever.
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Overall, I think the Allies "won" this round. The bad things that were bound to happen did happen, but other bad things that might have happened did not. One thing the CW really needs to watch, though, is the start of a full-scale SUB war, now that Germany has 5 SUBs on the map. Even with this threat, the Allies chose to let the Axis have the first move, hoping to shift the Initiative another +1 in their favor.
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So, at the beginning of November, 1940, here is what the world looks like:

As promised, the weather roll for Impulse #1 of N/D '40 (Turn #8):

Also as promised, my attempt to show you the fleet in Plymouth is below. It took my over an hour and a half to edit these images together and explain the problems the CW faces (below the image). That's why there's only 1 version of the NRD form. It would have taken a lot more effort to show that one both ways, and wouldn't really improve things much.

The top 2 images use the Units in Hex form to show everything in Plymouth. The first uses standard resolution, and the second uses low resolution (improving the visibility of the numbers on each counter). The long image below them shows the exact same thing, but uses the Naval Review Details (NRD) form instead. This splits things up into ship types. It also contains a Unit Data Panel to show almost any possible information you could possibly want to know about the fleet.



As you can see, I'm very short on CVP units. There is a Class-1 that was added as a reinforcement at Bristol, and there are 3 more in the Reserve Pool (inserts). Unfortunately, those are either Class-1 or Class-3 . . . fortunately, both of the Class-3 CVP drop down to Class-2 at the start of 1941, so they'll finally fit on my available CV. Unfortunately, again, 3 of the next 4 CVP on the Production Spiral are Class-3 CVP that won't drop to Class-2 until 1942, and the 4th is another Class-1 . . . which means replacements won't be available unless I keep building more CVP and get lucky. Also, the Class-2 Swordfish on the CV Furious drops down to Class-1 in 1941 . . .

Did you follow all of that? Good, now I'll add another headache:

There are now 6 CVP left in the CW Force Pools (5 x Class-3, 1 x Class-2). When 1941 rolls around next turn, those 6 will be: 3 x Class-3, 2 x Class-2, 1 x Class-1 (nice symmetry, don't you think?), which means I only have a 50% chance of getting something "useful" if I build any this turn.

A real pain, right? It gets worse. In 1941, another 10 CVP get added to the Force Pools (2 x Class-3, 8 x Class-4).

As the CW, I've scrapped 13 CVP units. Of these, 7 cost no BP and 6 cost 1 BP . . . and all of them are worthless. My initial decision to scrap at the start of the game was in the hope of getting some useful units instead of crap. Maybe I should only have scrapped the 1 BP units, but it's too lat to worry about that now.

To sum up my CVP troubles, I think it's fairly simple: Germany killed off the CV Ark Royal, my only Class-3 CV early on (which is why I immediately rebuilt it).

There are now 2 x CV Class-3 in the Construction Pool, but a shortage of BP this turn and the need to build sealift means they'll have to sit there for another turn. At least I know I'll have (hopefully) some CVP that fit their carriers correctly once 1942 comes, but that's a long way off. It's a damn good thing that the USA will be deep in the war by then!

For those of you wondering why I haven't been building all of those "wonderful long-range fighters" to help with the problem, take a look at the Force Pools below. I don't know for certain what is considered "long-range" for a WiF fighter, but this shows you what's available now and what is going to be available over the next few years. To my eye, it doesn't look like building a FTR unit has a significant chance of being one of the "long-range" variety just yet.

If you're now wondering why I haven't tried to produce more NAV units, then, I have another image for you to study. Most of the units I started the game with are in the Reserve Pool now, and they are only good for Convoy protection. There are a few worth building now, but those NAV/ATR units are very expensive at 4 BP each. Starting in 1941 I'll have some more reasonably priced units to work with.

With such a high demand for sealift and cheap land units, I haven't felt the risk/reward value was high enough to justify building my FTR and NAV force in large numbers so far. Add in the destruction of so many of my CVP in early battles, and I figured I could get 2-3 CVP replacements for the price of a single FTR or NAV. Yes, that doesn't take Pilots into account, but as a rule CVP Pilots typically survive their engagements. So, I built a bunch of CVP and some Pilots, trying to fill out my CVs and empty the Reserve Pool of any units that might actually be useful.