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STRENGTHS: Our strength is that the Soviets are very weak. Below 5M. My experience in 8MP is that 5.5M is required to make a 5 unit deep defense in one location. Thus the Soviets have choices to make. I do see in the line between Tambov and Ryazan one position that is 5 unit deep and forms a salient. But at a real cost of coverage in other places on the front. Simply, the Soviets will have trouble covering the front.

WEAKNESS: Many German units are well below national morale. TO&E and manpower are definitely weaker than the 8MP game as an example. The FINNS were neglected for many turns. The Luftwaffe was neglected prior to Xhoel’s arrival and the Soviets allowed to rebuild their air force.

OPPORTUNITIES: The snow turns offers the German’s an opportunity to get into spring staging positions. The 8MP AAR ( https://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=4250683 ) shows just how devastating a snow offense can be to the Soviets when they do not have the manpower to cover hexes. The team has pointed out multiple opportunities including isolating unsupported Guards units in the North. One opportunity is to focus armor to take Tambov and critical rail junctions. What this will do is force the Soviets to use rail line further east to get units from the North to the South. The other opportunity is to start cleaning out hexes we need to build rail line(s) east.

THREATS: From my point of view, the biggest threat is the seams between the commands. Especially during the “electric slide” south. We need close coordination no matter the plan so the front smoothly shifts without leaving a huge opportunity for a counterattack and disaster.

TunganNinja, Former Axis South Commander TunganNinja
I am not comfortable with the main line of resistance in the north primarily because I am not comfortable assuming we will win a points victory if it happens, thats nice but otherwise I would like as much forest buffer as possible up to the Swampline of Cherepovets west of it Cherepovets is optional touching Rybinsk reseviour

Xhoel, Axis North and Air Commander
The plan is good however:
1) I don't have enough units on the northern side to make the push to close the pocket and have no Finnish reserves at hand. The terrain here is also very bad (heavy woods) so any advance will be meager if the Soviets commit resources to hold the line. This is my main concern.
2) The push from the south is doable if enough Infantry is provided, which is needed to hold the captured ground after the initial advance.
3) I can provide air assets for the southern thrust, but the decision if we will commit to the operation needs to be taken soon, so I can start moving units around.
4) The plan relies heavily on taking the objectives (cutting both rail lines) in the first week of operations. Should that go sideways we will be in a difficult position.
... I am afraid it is a bit too ambitious

Telemecus, Axis Supreme Commander
destroying lots of Soviet guards units would be a big gain... the terrain combined with the weather just means it is very unlikely we can get substantial pockets in the north ...However I would say not to abandon the idea but consider it as a contingency. We will have at least a corps of mobile units for local encirclements and opportunites - and if we see cracks opening up we can rail in lots more. Most of our mobile units are still wintering in rear cities so we have flexibility in where they are railed to.

Judging by other games what I think what is more likely to happen is that easier ground in the centre and south will start to open up and the Soviet side will be forced to transfer units there from the North. This will mean either those units can be encircled in more favourable ground in the centre or south - or less dense lines in the North become open to encirclement.

TunganNinja, Former Axis South Commander
The reason why I believe Operation Red Sack should be conducted during the snow turns, is precicely because the ice levels are in our favour. Let me explain:

The shortest southern path for interdicting the most northern rail is 8 hexes - almost entirely light woods and swamps. Undoubtedly if a layer of defense is present along the way it will eat up considerable movement points. However, with the ice levels being at maximum the swamps pose less of a hindrance to mobile units, and the rivers are entirely absent of movement penalties. Indeed, it is true that we would incur movement penalties from the snow, but as it applies for all units, having iced-out swamps mitigates the movement penalty for motorized units and gives us a relative advantage. Furthermore, snow movement penalties would ensure a sluggish response from Soviet units, hampering their attacks on our spearheads and slowing withdraws from exposed frontage on the line. Therefore, if there was a time for a Cherepovets offensive, it would be most ideal before any thawing takes place.

I concur that the operation carries risk, but not considerable risk. What's more, the potential benefits are greater than the potential penalties. At worst case scenario, our mobile forces become bogged down, but not before the Soviets retreat, granting us shorter lines for long term positioning. Total success would allow us to pocket the entire front, but even if we were only able to pocket the southern half of the front (which I find is very reasonable with cut rail) I would define the operation as cost-effective.

It should take Turn 37 and Turn 38 to rail in earmarked units. Reaching the northern railway is entirely dependent on having sufficient infantry and armour in position, for a mobile formation's HQBU by the end of turn 38. This is because I predict it would take approximately 2 turns to cut the northernmost rail, and 3 turns to guarantee eventual encirclement. Therefore, the earliest possible commencement of the operation would still force us to make moves during the last snow turn, opening ourselves up to Soviet counterattacks before mud. The pocketed units would most likely annoy us until the first clear turns.

As for the infantry advancing on the north edge,a quick advance on the northern section of that front may not be required, precisely because of its isolation. Still, with low fort levels present meager gains along Lake Onega may be worthwhile. In fact, the low fort levels in the entire sector suggest that the Soviets are not prepared for an incursion designed to cut the rail.

Telemecus, Axis Supreme Commander
On the point of operation red sack I still need to do the numbers on what could be railed - although we have until my turn to check on that i think.

To summarise what i think the argument for red sack is, basically we do have to advance on the north at some time, and now is "least worst" time to do it. There is some merit in the argument. My only concern is whether we have enough potential to make any serious encirclements with what we could rail up right now at all. At best we could only rail up three or four fully refitted/ToE mobile units to the north a turn, and many still need to be refitted. And with much of the front held by Finnish units we do nto have a wealth of other units in the area to use. But let me have a deeper look.

TunganNinja, Former Axis South Commander
My argument for Red Sack is less about land gain, and more on disrupting Soviet counters and manpower. Yes, it does knock out two birds with one stone; the intention is to cripple a high-quality portion of the Red Army in the snow so that they are off balance throughout the Summer.

I agree that the operation would be decided on our ability to muster available forces. I would feel confident with about the strength of a Panzer Army or 8 counters, and also a corps of crack infantry to make the breach.

IIRC, since the last snow turn is on Turn 41, and I expect it to take 2 turns to interdict the rail, and 1 more turn to follow up and encircle, then our forces would need to be assembled by the end of Turn 38 for an attack on Turns 39-41. I agree that it's cutting the timetable very close with low margin of error. I assume a likelihood of success based on an understanding that they seem to lack defense in depth in the area, and are preoccupied with defense of a possible attack in other sectors. Because we are so far forward in the Center and South, if I were them I would also lower the priority around Cherepovets. Therefore, I argue that the primary enemy would be the terrain, though once the rail is interdicted, the terrain will hamper the Soviets more. This is because they have to migrate up to 20 hexes in a northward direction, within forests and swamps, and during mud turns to escape encirclement.

Telemecus, Axis Supreme Commander
I spent quite a bit of time trying to see how the rail cap and refits/ToEs could match up with the resources to do this - and it just is not working out at the moment.

The critical points I was looking at were the CVs of the enemy units - they do have a dense enough set of units to use soaking attacks to break any single line encirclement. So quite simply no units really can be encircled and held during the snow period. Without that benefit operation red sack does not really hold up. Also the partisan attacks were unkind this turn, leaving the only rail route to much of the North from coming up from the south. The Finnish units are just not ready to do much combat so any mobile units up there would be badly exposed. So the only real rail cutting opportunity was the more southernly of the two rail lines - and cutting that alone is less beneficial.

TunganNinja, Axis South Commander
After looking at the game recently, I think you are right.

The thing about the Germans is that although I believe we could achieve the immediate objectives of a Spring offensive, if it turns into a serious engagement it's probably not a good idea - even if the Soviets bleed - as we cannot compete against their Hippocratic recovery rate...

Sometimes there are times when sitting back and licking one's wounds are required. For instance, I would be the kind of player to advise stretching the front lines as wide as possible during Summer '42, in order to stretch the Soviet defense, to find a gap and bag their units. If Cherepovets went as I would intend, while the Soviets may suffer a significant loss of experienced guards units, and counters in general, we would suffer from high fatigue and TO&E loss on an army of mobile units, which now spend the first months of Summer in the back doing R&R. Therefore we may be missing out on greater opportunities in the long term.

I wasn't fully paying attention to the state of our Axis units after the First Blizzard: they do look pretty mauled.

I have enclosed a rough sketch showing key rail junctions that if taken will make the Soviets life a lot tougher. The axis of attack aligns with a rail line. Another line of attack is the rail from Skopin (116,58) toward Penza. The key hex is Saray at 122,58 .. there the Luftwaffe commands the whole heartland.

I was initially thinking the pivot point would be Ryazan … but now I think our snow offense should secure a line from 120/53 towards the North?

Neogodhobo
My spy on the German side is telling me the Axis are counting on a victory by points for 42 "sudden defeat"

Mamluke
that is... quite ambitious of then.... But it is possible
I've made some rough calculations. if they are serious about securing automatic Victory, there are 2 strategies I can see:

1- securing the entire Caucuses, INCLUDING Baku, this way it get's then 16 more points then, they just have to get Gorky and the Volga river. should be at 290 or just close enough

2- Without Baku (and taking Baku is very Dam hard thanks to rifle corps), if they just secure the Kuban region (north of the Mountain range). they will have to cross the Volga, take all Major cities along the river and Secure some 3 or 4 cities inland

keep in mind:
light Urban = 3 points
cities = 1

either strat is going to be hard for then... But it is within their capabilities.(edited)

Hot dam, this game is getting exciting!

They will concentrate on destroying our army in areas 5 and 9 first. It's open ground, the russians can't stand anywhere in '42 without forts and difficult terrain. Some big encirclements and they can mop up and get their objectives. I think we can afford to lose area 8, and should actually encourage them to go south. Try to lose only the poor units in encirclements and delay at every chance. Carefully protect our best units until we make our stop lines and hope poor german supply and then weather saves us.

Neogodhobo
Gorky, Stalingrad, Baku and Vologda were already designated as the cities to defend at all cost.

Mamluke
I say Gorky would be the most devastating loss. it take too much rail capacity to evac that city.

Soviet South CommanderThis particular front is almost broken i will try to reinforce it but it may happen that the southern group will need to retreat. No decent rail, can't bring additional units fast... A couple of elite IDs are based near Stalingrad, but as i mentioned there is no decent rail near, and nothing can be done to build a good line that will deny Axis advance right now

ok, first is the size of the army. An army of ten fronts , composed of 4 inf armies and either a shock army or a tank army. That's 160 inf corps, 24 tank corps and 12 mech corps. Calvary corps will be phased out either by not rebuilding or disbanding. Cavalry replacements will be needed in the infantry corps, there won't be anymore cav units built, 16 really is about enough to try to keep up to strength after first winter.

I count 8 active fronts and crimea front ready, which will be receiving armies immediately.I propose we divide command to 3 fronts each command, when the 10 activates it will go to the player with the most important sector and may be allocated to other players as needed. Some fronts are divided and some are worse-overcommand. During the snow, commanders will begin to unify their fronts but it may take the quiet mud turns to complete. All understrenth armies will be brought up to full strength, but if you get an overstrength command, expect that stavka will slowly and with your cooperation take reserves or just not replace losses until they are within command limits. excess armies will slowly be disbanded. Losses are going to be massive and the army is likely to get smaller, not larger this summer campaign.

i count 386 inf div, 127 inf brigades, 104 tk brigades, 22 airborne brigades and 19 cav corps. we have enough infantry units, no more will be built. some won't be rebuilt. 22 airborne will be 11 guards divisions as soon as possible. 104 tank brigades are fine for now, but any lost are not rebuilt. the truckpool will not support more than the 36 mobile corps planned. Cav elements just aren't built in sufficient numbers, and they might be powerful in 42 but get less effective as the war goes on anyways. 6-10 left by 43 is historical with one honorary unit at wars end.

So what do we build? I propose tank battalions, which will upgrade later to regiments. These will be attached to infantry corps. We start now, they need the time to train up. More rr brigades are needed too, as the pool allows. Armaments are low, we concentrate on replacing the upcoming losses, and form airborne into guards, then guards into guards corps as soon as possible. If we can manage to stock up some ap's for the turn when guards infantry corps are buildable, that can really help the situation. I am usually hard pressed to build 2 per week in my games. But until infantry corps , it's impossible to hold anywhere the germans want to go. Tank corps are terribly weak in 42, better in 43, so probably only guards will be considered, but each commander decides what to do with his points. As to points, we could divide into four equal allotments, but i think a quarantee of so many points a commander and then a vote on where to direct the surplus would be ideal. It may be necessary for stavka and a commander to agree to combine points for a leader promotion or fortifying etc.

I would like to have some vvs bases under stavka, ill do partisan and long range recon. Then the commanders can get their turns with some recon done, and then recon to their needs. I count 65 airbases, each front will get a basic air army of 4 and hotter fronts more. A few will be put to rear area industry defense and used to rotate units in for training...

the airforce was reorganized. I took the long range command for stavka, it will be using long range bombers for partisan support and long range recon units will be based there. All air units under 40 morale went into reserve. Many more units were placed into reserve too, but only to ease reorg and will return next week. The North command will start with a defensive posture but will still have an important role. Leningrad air command will now have all the night bombing units, nbad bases are forming there, and it will be used to attrit the finns and overcome their ability to replace losses. North's daytime airforce will be focused on drawing out the finnish airforce. The sooner the finns collapse the sooner the germans are forced to redirect units to save them. North command will be important to stretching the german lines and weakening their summer offensive. All fronts will be getting dedicated air aibases for their air armies. 2-3 fighter, 1-2 level bomber bomber to start. all the tac has been reserved for the new shad bases, which will mostly go where the panzers go. The first shad airbase was built. Recon is in very short supply, most into reserve, but short range will be assigned to each front as soon as possible. I disbanded some BAK and PVO corps , but sent some pvo airbases to the rear military district air commands, where fighters will be able to protect factories and train up. Air command has been moved towards crimea front, it will take a joint effort between stavka and south command next turn to assign it to crimea front, which has no air army. Transcacasus and southern ural air commands are withdrawn to protect the rear, their airbases reassigned to front air commands.

instructions to North
the 54th and 55th armies are understrength but are now at under your command. There are 14 divisions at Cheropovets at 20% toe. These will be brought up to strength slowly and put under your command. The first 3 were put at 100 toe, you can take them immediately. Please co-ordinate with Centre to extend your line southwards, allowing him to move south.