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ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

Surprising the Switzerland, Norway and Iran have such high infection rates per million population.
Too much heavy breathing from climbing mountains or just heavy testing?

Iran was notoriously... I'll just say careless.

Switzerland and Norway - what's the population density where people actually live? I.e., the average population density that a person there experiences? If it's high, I'd expect higher rates of infection than I would in, say, a rural US state.

Unless a lot of Chinese people go to Switzerland and Norway for skiing, I would not expect many visitors in the winter that would drive the infection rate per million so much higher than other countries. Switzerland probably can be explained by proximity to northern Italy, but Norway? How many visitors from high-risk areas does Norway get in the winter? And don't the mountains limit travel somewhat so geographic isolation is more prevalent?
So I wonder whether the virus is spreading faster there or if they are just very vigilant in their testing so they count more cases earlier than other countries on the chart.

What I mean is - the population density of these countries is a function of their total area. But practically speaking, don't they have lots of relatively high density areas while the rest of the country is low density? Like New York State and NYC - the state has a population density of 416.4 people per square mile, but nearly half of that comes from NYC alone. I guess what I was trying to say was: what proportion of the population is urban? Diseases spread faster in urban areas because people are closer.

Switzerland's urban population % is 73.80% (the USA as a whole is around 84% as currently measured but the definition has changed over the decades, most recently in the 1990s). Norway's urban population % is >80%.

Further, the USA urban population % can't be compared very well to other countries' urban population % because the nature of our "urban" areas is so different: we have massive sprawl, like literally no other country in the world. Our urban areas (in the national aggregate) are simply less dense than other countries' urban areas.

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Judging from what we're seeing elsewhere, especially Asia and the western Pacific, and now perhaps [but only perhaps!] in Italy, I don't expect to see numbers in the millions. As for numbers in the tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands, that's serious but not comparatively so. We routinely deal with far more for seasonal flu and more irregular epidemics and pandemics.

I'm sorry CR, but this is simply not true. It is the exact opposite: if 200K people die in the US from COVID-19, it will be more than 3x as many as the seasonal flu kills (if not more than 4x, if you break out the deaths from pneumonia from the flu + pneumonia line on the CDC website here: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm).

Note that the only single viral or bacterial disease that makes the top causes of deaths is the flu, which is an endemic disease. We don't really suffer from lethal epidemics or pandemics.

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Given the data we're seeing, the situation in Western Europe and in the USA should peak and then begin to taper off in March. Not in July or September.

It hasn't peaked in Italy yet (one day of fewer than expected cases can't be discounted as not noise). We're 9 days behind them in terms of the infection curve for number of cases. Other countries' (Germany, US, Switzerland) infection curves have, excepting only the UK, exactly followed the Italian curve. I see no reason not to expect the peak of the curve to occur until at least sometime in April, if not early May. In China, it took ~16 days since the number of confirmed cases reached 100 for the curve's downslope to begin and they instituted a much more draconian quarantine than we have (or will). So it will almost certainly take longer to reach the downslope here.

Optimism is great, and I'm generally an optimist, but everything we're seeing in terms of numbers doesn't look so rosy to the point of modifying previous expectations for more than a month's worth of serious impingement on day-to-day living. And the risk of worse is great enough that it seems more likely than not to be longer than that, as with these things you're entering the same realm as the Torino Scale: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Torino_scale

The Imperial College analysis does not appear to be optimistic. I'm not sure if they opt to look at worst case analysis as a specific point (to see how bad it can be). A lot of the big scary numbers (80% of population and 2M+ dead in the US) come from assumption of zero efforts to mitigate/suppress (which already isn't the case). But I'm still hoping it's a bit on the pessimistic/worst case scenario side :\

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperi ... 3-2020.pdf


EDIT: Came across this response which points out some issues.

https://necsi.edu/review-of-ferguson-et ... erventions

It hasn't peaked in Italy yet (one day of fewer than expected cases can't be discounted as not noise).

I'm always cautious of noise but I do think we're starting to see some flattening of both deaths and new cases for Italy at least. I'd still like a bit more data points, and assume that with some error bars the slope could still be upwards in rate of new incidents, but I'd say we're starting to see some of the effects of their shut down measures.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... try/italy/

Hey, Loka, you are repeatedly misquoting or misrepresenting what I've said.

I've said that seasonal flu might have mortality of 20k to 40k in the USA. I've never used a figure of 200k for corona virus in the USA, though I did refer to "tens or hundreds of thousands" when speaking in context of the world if China was stil increasing exponentially (I happened to be referring to Western Europe and the USA at the time, which might have confused you if you read that one post in isolation without dozens of others). I don't expect this to be near 40k in the USA, but if it happens to be, the mortality comparison is apt. I've made that point repeatedly here.

Yesterday and every other day I've said that we don't know if it has peaked in Italy yet (but as we noted yesterday, and as Alanschu's post just above furthers, there is the possibility of a trend that we're monitoring closely to see if it's an aberration or true).

None of my comments about a month (or less or more) pertained to the duration of impingement on life. The month figures have been used with respect to the duration of the worst of the virus - either the upswing of the bell-shaped curve or possibly even the most steep parts of each side - in places like China and South Korea, and the possibility the same might be true elsewhere (I think it will be, but not sure until we have more data from elsewhere). See my post 1115 yesterday that discusses this in detail. I've noted more than once that the effect on the economy and lifestyle will last considerably longer.

You referred to this as a "War and Peace" thread yesterday, presumably referring to its length. I take that to mean you haven't read through this but dip you toes in now and then. If so, you're missing a lot of context. It's fine to disagree, but please don't misrepresent.

ORIGINAL: Kull

We can get statistics per province from here (I posted charts earlier). And we do need that level of granularity, because it's quite possible that a leveling off in the north could be masked by growth elsewhere. There is just a hint of that in this table I put together in order to track that. Admittedly we're only looking at one day, but that's all I've got.

Table updated thru 3/17. You'll notice that we're seeing a lot more separation now between the numbers from the north and those from the rest of Italy. The north still has the preponderance of the increase in cases, but the percentage is dropping. Which I think is what we're hoping to see. (Note: The original post, including the province map of Italy, can be found here)

REALITY CHECK PLEASE!

Here in oz we now have, apparently, about 300 sufferers. Out of 25m.

We are shutting down. Gold price is increasing.

I am really quite pissed off with some of the stupidity uttered here.

I thought you guys were better than that.

Deaths*



*"The COVID-19 illness causes mild or moderate symptoms in most people, but severe symptoms are more likely in the elderly or those with existing health problems. More than 80,000 people have recovered so far, mostly in China."

I took the clickbait - headline something like "UK issues dire warning...."

The story quotes an expected death rate of 1 in 1,000.

What? All we've been hearing is 3% of thereabouts (or, if you're in the Main Matrix Page thread, 7.8%).

I assume there's a goof somewhere and that this news (or this estimate) cannot be accurate.

But if so, it would be great news.

Coronavirus vaccine could be ready ‘before autumn’, says EU Commission Chief

https://metro.co.uk/2020/03/17/coronavi ... -12414537/

New Orleans Mayor Issues Coronavirus Order Allowing Ban on Sale, Transportation of Firearms
16 Mar 2020



https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020 ... -firearms/

"New Orleans Mayor LaToya Cantrell (D) signed a Coronavirus emergency order last week allowing her to ban the sale and transportation of firearms.

She signed a follow-up proclamation on March 16, 2020, further emphasizing her emergency powers to “suspend or limit the sale, dispensing, or transportation, of alcoholic beverages.”"

Ian, I regret you are disappointed! If you find this thread alarmist, don't go to the General Forum thread on coronavirus.

There have been some bumps and bruises in here but overall the discussion has been great and (for me) enlightening. It has helped me think through things and better organize my thoughts and analysis. As a result, I've turned pretty darned optimistic (or so it seems to me).

ORIGINAL: Ian R

REALITY CHECK PLEASE!

Here in oz we now have, apparently, about 300 sufferers. Out of 25m.

We are shutting down. Gold price is increasing.

I am really quite pissed off with some of the stupidity uttered here.

I thought you guys were better than that.

In France, people now need a form to leave their houses as 100,000 police have been commissioned to enforce the country's lockdown
March 17, 2020

https://www.theblaze.com/news/france-fo ... oronavirus


"On Monday, French President Emmanuel Macron announced the 15-day lockdown in France, saying that the country is at "war" with the novel coronavirus, also known as COVID-19. The lockdown requires most people to remain at home over the next couple weeks in order to stem the spread of the virus.

Under the lockdown, French residents are still able to leave their homes if absolutely necessary, but in order to so they must produce a document citing their reasons for being in public."

Think only old people can die from Coronavirus? Think again. Expert who led team assessing China's outbreak says NO ONE is safe from the killer virus]
18 March 2020

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... ected.html

"Elderly people are the most at-risk of developing severe Coronavirus, but experts warn young, healthy people are still dying from the respiratory infection."

"Europe's youngest Coronavirus was reported to be a 21-year-old football coach in Spain, who had no idea he was vulnerable because of his Leukaemia."


"Most of the 8,000 fatalities recorded across the world have been people who are elderly or suffer underlying conditions, and have weakened immune systems. Chinese health officials carried out the biggest ever study on the virus, using data from 72,000 cases. They found 19 per cent of patients who died were below the age of 60 years "

Some stats to think about....



Life And Death In Bomber Command(RAF)
https://www.iwm.org.uk/history/life-and ... er-command

Aircrew were first committed to a tour of thirty operational flights, not exceeding 200 actual flying hours, which could last for any period from four months to a year.

Pathfinder crews flew forty-five. A six-month break - usually spent as instructors with training units - was followed by a second and final tour.

Instructing had its dangers, too, as it involved flying with inexperienced recruits in old aircraft. More than 8,000 men were killed in training accidents or other non-operational flying during the Second World War.


Operational flying was perilous. Chances of survival varied during a tour, depending on factors such as inexperience, fatigue, type of aircraft flown and target.
The most dangerous were the first and last five trips.

During the whole war, 51% of aircrew were killed on operations,
12% were killed or wounded in non-operational accidents and
13% became prisoners of war or evaders.
Only 24% survived the war unscathed.

MakeeLearn, that's one weird headline (two posts above). In the first place, nobody thinks "only" the elderly can die. In the second, the table in the story shows that the elderly are indeed disproportionately affected, pretty much discrediting whatever point the writer was trying to make.

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

MakeeLearn, that's one weird headline (two posts above). In the first place, nobody thinks "only" the elderly can die. In the second, the table in the story shows that the elderly are indeed disproportionately affected, pretty much discrediting whatever point the writer was trying to make.

[:D]Exactly what I was gleaning from the article as I read it. There is probably a "Life Style" connection to most of the younger deaths.

[font="Verdana"]Conditioning[/font]

Bumping this up from the previous page, lest it get lost in the War and Peace volume of this thread.

What's with this report from the UK?

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I took the clickbait - headline something like "UK issues dire warning...."

The story quotes an expected death rate of 1 in 1,000.

What? All we've been hearing is 3% of thereabouts (or, if you're in the Main Matrix Page thread, 7.8%).

I assume there's a goof somewhere and that this news (or this estimate) cannot be accurate.

But if so, it would be great news.

"Listen to them, the children of the night. ..."

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Bumping this up from the previous page, lest it get lost in the War and Peace volume of this thread.

What's with this report from the UK?

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I took the clickbait - headline something like "UK issues dire warning...."

The story quotes an expected death rate of 1 in 1,000.

What? All we've been hearing is 3% of thereabouts (or, if you're in the Main Matrix Page thread, 7.8%).

I assume there's a goof somewhere and that this news (or this estimate) cannot be accurate.

But if so, it would be great news.

ORIGINAL: Ian R

REALITY CHECK PLEASE!

Here in oz we now have, apparently, about 300 sufferers. Out of 25m.

We are shutting down. Gold price is increasing.

I am really quite pissed off with some of the stupidity uttered here.

I thought you guys were better than that.

Hold on. Not sure what you're getting at, but you don't have to read this thread if you don't need more info on Covid. You can wait until the numbers are higher there, as they will be everywhere without strict measures, and then have another look.

Australia is no different from anywhere else. I have family there, and there is significant concern. Acting now will be helpful, not harmful, to Australians.