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T040 Central Commander. Counterattack.

As it was planned, all three groups of tanks are pushed back and their original areas (1,2,3) of the offensive are occupied by the Red Army.

Tank and anti-tank brigades move forward again. They will take a hit next week.

The shock armies concentrated in the rear (4,5,6), replenished and ready to repel the next offensive.

This success would not have been possible without my comrades, who reliably covered my flanks and without the Stavka, which was gathering the best troops for me.

The Soviets Guard will not leave the battlefield. The Germans will have to try better.

@Sil01

Excellent! Come to us little Soviets, come out and play with our lions, they have some nice candies for you!!!...

Joking, but great to see your contribution to the AAR!

T040 Soviet South

South at the start of T40

In terms of loses really good, but i feel we need mud right here and now, retreating to the red line i will barely hold against panzers for a couple of turns.

T040 Soviet South continued

Soviet South at the end of turn 40

I am not so sure I would have given up the row in front of the river one turn before mud. The river is still frozen and you have just moved from higher fort levels to lower ones?

good comment Tele thanks. From my point of view, a line in front of the river would have been as safe as that red line and would have bought a little more time.

For information only - team allocations for turn 41

The long process of railing wintered units back to the front and garrisons back to the rear continues.

T041 Axis North

Reinhardt's Panzer Corps reaches lake Rybinsk cutting the land route to the south of the lake. Soviet forces to the west do have a rail line close, but still awaiting repairs (red lines on map). Even if they can repair it taking any of the hexes bordered in black will ZOC block it again. So the line of guards divisions to the west of Lake Rybinsk rely on an overland supply route crossing heavy forests and swamps to get to the repaired rail (green lines on map).

The enclosed map shows what they Soviet's posted in the AAR for last turn. It is the beginning of the German Turn 41. The Soviet's are jubilant they pushed the German's back.




My thoughts are as follows:

First:

Soviets are 500,000 men behind 8MP

This is a very important metric from my standpoint. The Soviet's show 5M in the field. Actually, I would propose there are three metrics that indicate the state of the Soviet army. I would disagree with 10,000 "tubes".

1. Needed TO&E. This metric that is in the logistics report tells you the maxiumum TO&E that is in the field. That is how many units that are out there and how much manpower it takes to fill them up.

2. Total Manpower. That is the men filling squads that include disabled squads. Total manpower/needed TO&E gives you an approximation of the total percentage of TO&E in the field. From my standpoint as a German I approximate these numbers. So when I see a guards unit that clearly is showing a high CV, and the needed/manpower ratio is estimated at say 70% that means that there are units that are far below this threshold. "Just kick in the door and the whole thing collapses..."

3. Ready Manpower. This excludes disabled squads.

So what does that mean? I am looking at this situation and thinking that way too much of scarce resources are comitted to push my Panzers back...they simply do not have the manpower to commit forces like this and AGS is soon going to eat the Soviet south...

Telemecus-
At the moment the Soviet side has the units to make a bit of a yo-yo battle in the centre and with the last turn before mud they will be braver than ever.

Telecucus response is that the future might be bright but right now we have an immediate problem. So we adjust the plan accordingly:

I did not leave all my armor on rails. Hopefully we can repair rail near Lipetsk and [2nd] panzer army will gather there .. 3 rd panzer army will get on rails a little bit north of there …

Thinking about the next turn certainly a "poor mans HQBU" is needed here. The key will be to get the rail as close as possible to the Panzer's jump off points for the summer offense.

My main mission was to hurt the rail in my sector. Even if he lashes out and pushes back .. the rail is cut and Tambov will be the source of supply. Watch those SP MP’s go up from 2 to much higher...I found lots of guards units .. stuff from the North is headed to Center. My main push was toward Gryazi and I got the rail junction .. he will push me back but the rail is destroyed ..the position will be untenable in the mud ..

The above is my overall operational context. The Soviet's pushed me back but I cut the key rail lines. In this version rail to the end of the world is key to preserving trucks while keeping things supplied. When the mud comes they will trace better than 15MP and in some cases 25MP's to a supply head.

Only level 1 forts just south of Lipetsk.. mostly zero level forts in front of the Panzer Armies.

Telemecus: So we have removed their forts and go a bit further forward but removed some of their ability to hit back on units close to the front.

This is key also. When you push units back .. even if you get pushed back . those are hexes not being fortified. When the clear comes the Soviet's do not want to be defending clear hexes at fort level 0. Those guards pushing my panzers are not digging in .. I am happy ..

Noticed I recon the rails a bit .. I found reinforcements either resting or freshly railing in for the Mud season.

The units on the rail along Murom are concerning. Right now they are resting I suppose? They could be digging in a future line?

So this turn my main missions are:

1. I will slowly set up 3 panzer armies to push toward Tambov
2. get my line to row 70 -- No plans this turn for pockets or penetrations
3. slide forces south -- I ended up moving a little bit of the line back a bit while sliding south. I am not sure how I am going to get I Corps south – It all depends on North moving the line to the Oka. Once that happens I will Electric Slide south.

The quote below is a longer term debate on how to manage a the Soviets lacking Manpower. It is a very tough spot to be in.

I am not sure the operational plan of putting Anti-tank units as speed bumps is a good idea. Free Artillery kills with infantry supported by guns. The best use in my opinion is concerted attacks on armor or rolling the dice as a reserve unit. They have 76.2 mm ATG’s now. These are good “tubes” for killing our tanks.

Right now the Soviet's are putting armor brigades,and onmap SU's like ATG as speedbumps/ The problem is that knowing the initial attack OOB I just march infantry forward with guns. I use a hasty attack for sure, but the unit might be better placed for reserve activation or as a part of a deliberate attack. For example, ATG's joining those guards would hurt our tanks.

I am more concerned now that the Soviets have moved those guards units from the North. I expect more resistance now before the collapse.

Turn 41 - Axis south

Last turn of winter before the long mud season in the south and center weather zones, which cover most of my command area.

When we received the turn back from the Soviets, I was surprised and greatly pleased to find the Soviet south commander retired his troops behind the river, which is not yet frozen... This gives me the occasion to reach the Don before mud and maybe even have a chance of bridging the river this turn, which would be a nice bonus and a great help for the coming Rostov offensive.



I also noticed that without really trying, I was following exactly the team plan map for 1942.

joelmar:
Funny, I was looking at the planification map pdf, and all my winter attacks corresponded exactly to the light grey arrows there. The plan was sound!

But then Telemecus tempered my enthousiasm:

Telemecus:
A lot of those things in the map are not so much planned as seem to keep re-ocurring in many games. I do not fully understand the reason for some of them. But you do find similar pockets and movements happening again and again.

joelmar:
Yes, but the reason I made my moves was only because that was the best possibility from the soviet's positionning. So it's funny it happens exactly as on the map, same hexes.

Telemecus:
perhaps there is some grand reason which makes the Soviets did the same move which allows the Axis to follow similar paths?

joelmar:
perhaps. One thing is certain, my lines would have been different if he had defended in front of the Don instead of behind.

So looking at the results, everything went to my best expectations.

joelmar:
So we now have a very safe bridgehead over the Don. It was a close thing made possible only by the all out retreat over the rivers and the fact he didn't leave fodder units on the right bank of the river. If I had had to battle my way thru a shield, it would have been almost impossible to bridge the river, but even then, I would not have been able to push enough CV in the bridgehead to hold it against his strong neighbouring units, including a guard cavalry corp. He would have had a line of at least level 1 forts behind the river and I would have to battle hard to get a bridgehead in may.

So this is a perfect example of retreating too fast. Had the river been frozen, things would have been different. But with mud coming next turn and with it the fast thaw of the river, it was imperative to delay me getting to the river and get a bridgehead this turn.

Meanwhile, I continue to move units into position. After helping with the push to the Don 11th army continues its migration to the northeast, while 17th army is slowly sliding down the line towards Rostov.

With mud coming, coupled about the uncertainty about my next 1st pz army move, I plan to get most of the mobile units from the line:

joelmar:
In regards to saving trucks, next turn I plan to replace all the tanks and mot units I have at the front by infantry and send them back towards the rails.

My aim is to get all mobile units on railheads next turn or the one after to have them fully fueled, supplied and rested when their time will come.

In Crimea, the build up for operation "Boxer Shorts" is well on its way with units coming out of garrison. The goal of this little offensive operation is to push back the stack of Soviet units from the swamps over the major river hex side to the Crimea main land. XXXX pz corps has been assigned the task, with the help of a few German infantry division. Hoping to get a freak winter turn to get that done before the end of the mud season, but we're ready to wait if the worst comes to worst because after that the rumanians alone will take care of keeping the Soviets bottled up in crimea, unless an opportunity presents itself.

That hex is not an easy spot to reach with the mud coming and the swamps in the way, lucky for us (well, not really lucky... [:D] ) we have rail repair coming down which will be a good helping hand.



But sadly not everything was perfect...

joelmar:
I also made a few little attacks to clear hexes where I could and if I saw a benefit in positionning. I tried the swamp hex in Crimea with what I could, in the hope of getting 1.5:1 odds and reducing the fort level but it failed and it was dispendious... a futile little venture... lol! I'll have to wait until mud is done.

Nevertheless, it was not a big deal. The buildup was going well and that was all that mattered.

joelmar:

So it would be great to have a FBD, either the Crimea or Boguchar FBD go in the Voroshilovgrad area and continue the rail repairs towards Kamensk ASAP. The one in Crimea could get over the swamps before though. Maybe the one at Boguchar would be a better candidate, anyway I let you decide that.

So all in all, a very satisfying turn for AGS. And even if the turn of events that gave me an unexpected bridgehead over the Don was mainly due to a mistake by my opponents, I was quite happy to have been able to take full advantage, and be able to resume the movement of units to their late spring-summer jump off positions with no further ado.

And my lines were now strongly anchored along the Don and Donets, so after the thaw I could easily use the protection of the river to lightly screen the line and concentrate my troop on the schwerpunkt, at the bridgehead, or somewhere else if my opponent decided to heavily defend in the bridgehead area.

Finally, I also had cleared the way for the FBD's to move eastwards over the Donets which was also a very important objective.

AGS was now ready for the mud. I thought that it would be a more relaxed season, but it turned out quite differently!

And here is the final situation - Axis turn 41

T41 Soviet

One thing i noticed is the germans are repairing rail between Voronezh at x117,y73, and Boguchar x125, Y83. Maybe we should consider a strategic retreat in this area to prevent a first clear turn pocket?

set all infantry units to 80% and guard or tank units to 100%.... more t34 left the pool this week but infantry shortages are severe.

Sil01, Soviet Centre Commander
9 Pd/Md NOT found.

Attached for information only Panzer and Motorised recon.

T041 Soviet North

Der_Panzer, Soviet North Commander
Finns lost around 850 Men and 11 recon plains.

volkov front move to cover the sector from yaroslavl to ivanovo and then down to Vladimir. Leningrad front would take over the line to rybinsk reserve, drawing new units from cheropovets and releasing guards to volkov front....8 army of Leningrad front moves to take over 2 shock positions and draws units around cheropovets. ... 2 shock moves to ivanovo. it will take 3 turns to complete, but volkov front is to cover ivanovo this week, and vladimir by week 3. Your short term objective is to deter a push north, but ultimately to defend Gorki.... This would leave center able to shorten its front and defend in depth.

Der_Panzer, Soviet North Commander
If I have to resettle the Guards divisions too I need 16 AP and around 15,000 RR.
I agree with a defensive posture. I will build up fortifications towards Volodga and Bui in at least 5 hex depth.
The 2nd shock army will hold this positions this turn. The Railline behind the 2nd shock army is destroyed so It will need some time to get troops in the position of the 2nd shock army and the 2nd shock army out.

So the loss of a land route south of Lake Rybinsk not only is causing supply problems, but is delaying the whole strategic reorientation of the Red Army!

I took the soviet map in post 1195 and highlighted the areas of troop concentrations and guards units. One is the central Voronezh-Tambov battleground. But from the other, if you did not know the background, you would think was to defend from an amphibious attack over Lake Rybinsk to Vologda! [:D]

Now I know that is infact the picture of them travelling from the far north to a future deployment further south. But seeing it from the Soviet side shows just how overloaded the north was compared to the rest of the Soviet theatre of operations.

Soviet commander:

One thing i noticed is the germans are repairing rail between Voronezh at x117,y73, and Boguchar x125, Y83. Maybe we should consider a strategic retreat in this area to prevent a first clear turn pocket?

I don't remember that we (Axis) had any specific plan to attack between Boguchar and Voronezh? The rail repairs were mainly to create a new north-south rail to ease communications between center and south if I remember well.

ORIGINAL: joelmar

Soviet commander:

One thing i noticed is the germans are repairing rail between Voronezh at x117,y73, and Boguchar x125, Y83. Maybe we should consider a strategic retreat in this area to prevent a first clear turn pocket?

I don't remember that we (Axis) had any specific plan to attack between Boguchar and Voronezh? The rail repairs were mainly to create a new north-south rail to ease communications between center and south if I remember well.

In fact, we wanted the Soviets to stay because we were looking to cut the rails much deeper in the lines.