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If you want an indication of what blizzard does to CV, rail one of those 18th Army divisions to a city in the Soviet Union(where they can detrain and not take hits from the weather). That will give you a fine look at what the decline is.

My guess on his 500 tank loss is you wacked a lot of light tanks, which he also produces by the bushel at this point. You may also be weeding through the last of the old crap as well, depending what he has committed where. (I have seen new tank brigades with old tanks). Not sure how much tank production he has railed out, but what is scary is everything he has railed out is still likely not back on line yet.  

Well late winter anyway. The first turn of snow saw a major bounce back in most of the Axis Army. In most cases I was pleasantly surprised as to what I found when I opened the turn. 6th,11th and to my amazement 17th army were in very good shape with CVs in the 6-7 range and a few 9s. All of the panzer armies were in very good shape especially 1st and 3rd who had been resting and sucking up fuel from J-52s for the last 3 turns in prep for the first snow turn. 4th and 16th army were ok but 2nd and 9th in some cases did not bounce the way the others did.

My plan during the blizzard was to lure my opponent into doing a few things. He didnt really fdo what I wanted but came sorta close. He did not attack as much as I thought he would in general. I was prepared mentally to be on a final defence line in the center near Mogilev/Gomel and in the north to be driven back past Velikie luki. He really didnt press in theses areas at all. The result was less casualties for both of us and more options for me in the spring.

In the south I was attempting to set up a few areas for a strategic counter by my actions during the blizzard. I wanted him to drive past Kursk and also drive up from the crimea. I didnt think he would be able to drive deep enough to develop a disaster. Except for almost losing 17th army (oops) things pretty much fell in place in the Kursk/Kharkov zone but he didnt push at all from the crimea which was odd to me. I was hoping to hold onto Kharkov but he really had way too many troops for that even with the massive casualties I had caused in the summer. I left the Rumanians out as bait but he did not take it. In the end I probably should have let him drive deeper near Kursk as the salient that developed was actually fairly small. Once it became clear where the front was going to wind up I pulled out the offensive units and started prepping 4 turns before the blizzard ended.

So when I opened the turn all was prepped for 2 offensives and I let em rip.

Turn 38 south - 1st Panzer leaps forward in an assault to cut the rails and drive a wedge to the sea. His stacks crumpled before the Panzers and infantry of 11th and 6th army which had been reinforced by pioneers and artillery that had been held in reserve all winter. It was rather easy to brush him aside which was a bit of a surprise. Even his "decent" stacks fell easily.

In the part of the front near the mouth of the crimea Rumanians and elements of 11th army drive forward as well. Supporting them is a powerful PZ corps and 2 more infantry corps fresh from Germany.

The PZ line should hold and infantry is on the way to reinforce them before he can realign enough forces to make a difference. The makings of a large pocket are forming.

Kharkov front - 6th and 17th army launch attacks and break holes in his lines then 3rd Pz and 4th Pz slice off the salient which I wish I had let him advance further in. 13 or so tank brigades and infantry divisions in one large and one smaller pocket. 1 corp from Germany is on the way followed up by 18th army and its full strength divisions.

Center - attacks are made to cut down forts and prepare for future offensive ops here.

I didnt take loss screenshots but for this turn losses were 5-1 in my favor. Airforce losses were pretty good at 8-1 or so as well. The plan for the snow turns is to just clean out a few areas of Soviets and start to reorganize for the big summer push.

AGS - Operation Azov

Turn 2 of snow sees the pocket begin to take shape. 1st Pz widens the gap a bit. I do think he will get guys in the pocket back in supply this turn but major infantry is on the way to the crimea to wrap up the pocket before mud and then reduce it during mud.

AGS - Kharkov sector - Pocket eliminated and the 17th army along with 3Pz drive his lines back to Sumy and capture the city. Pummeling away at his rather weak stacks. I have noticed an uptick in my own casualties in every attack. 17th and 6th army are very potent atm crushing his stacks.

Losses - this turn he lost 300 tanks and 14 destroyed units. Good thing because he has a boatfull of them. When I do recon its rather depressing. I cant imagine how big his army would be if I didnt have 4.5 million casualties inflicted. 1942 is gonna be rough.

Not much to report this turn. Finished sealing the pocket near Crimea and that whole are will open up nicely as he broke his lines and ran for it. Whacked some weak units along the line and set up 11th army lines. In most cases pulled the Panzers out of the lines and began to reshuffle support units for the summer offensive. I have pretty much decided on Moscow as he has the majority of his troops in the south as well as the fact thats the only place where industry has not been moved within reach.

Last turn of snow -

South pocket situation should be settled during mud. Was actually able to break through his level 4 forts in the Crimea with the 11th army Pz Corps which has done an amazing job in operation Azov. A lot of his surrounded units tirned out to be brigades but a kill is a kill I suppose. Killed almost another 300 tanks this turn. Been able to keep his tank growth to around 4k but I think that level of Attrition will be unsustainable during April/May with mud.

Was able to kill 34 units during snow. There are 12 more in the pocket. 45 or so in the counteroffensive isnt too bad but many of those units were weak.

Strength going into Spring:

The roads dry up a bit and the weather gets warmer in early May. One of the first operations of the new campaign gets underway. What was supposed to be a probing attack turns into an all out offensive as it turns out the Soviet lines are weaker then what they appeared.

Initial recon showed a very deep intricate Soviet front some 4-5 hexes deep. Forts were generally in the 2-3 range but lower further back from the front.

Although unknown before the offensive started 5 different Soviet armies would be identified.

In the middle of this complex defence sat the prize of Kharkov.

Initial attacks were made by 6th army along the front to whittle down the forts for later in the summer. Results like these however led to the belief in may be time to step up the timetable.

Next the 18th army which had been rested since its capture of Leningrad passed through the lines of the 6th army and hit the next Soviet line. Even level 3 forts with determined Soviet rifle divisions could not stand up to the power of the 18th army with its 14 well rested crack divisions.

LAstly the 4th Pz went in to clear the way for the Kharkov attackers of 18th army held in reserve.

As the path to Kharkov is widened with other battles the 1st Corp of 18th army led by the SS police division assaults the city. Its held by the Soviet 173rd infantry division in level 2 forts and has a routed tank brigade with it. The initial battle started with the Soviet unit having a CV of over 900! I didnt think the city would fall but it seems the quality of the German forces won the day as well as air power and the city fell.

The Kharkov operation continued with the bulge widening as his weaker fort areas fell one after another. I wanted to create a pocket around some cav corps so I went ahead and commited 3rd PZ army and 2 cav corps and 4 infantry divisions were pocketed.