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As it is directly accessable from off-map, Cocos will be hard to blockade. If you get enough AV and Supplies on the island, it might hold out.

If he blockades it, he'll be tied up for months, and you always have a chance for fast blockade runners...

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

12/12/42
 
Sumatra:  To add some additional pain to the day, CAs Tone and Takao bore into Oosthaven, sinking CA Exeter and two CLs. 

This is interesting - the initial game setup has the CAs Tone and Chikuma in the Kuriles with KB. AFAIK, only the main KB TF can warp speed from the Kuriles; if he split it into a 4 plus 2 CV group I doubt that both groups would get warp speed.
To me, it appears CA Tone was assigned from the get-go to head toward Truk/Babeldoab and the DEI, perhaps with the CV group that attacked Enterprise? She certainly could not have gone to PH on Dec 07 and then steamed all the way to Oosthaven by Dec. 12 without stopping for fuel and using flank speed for a couple of days [these CAs can cover 20 hexes in one day at flank speed, but there is a damage and fuel penalty for that].

Oops, forgive me.  It was Takao and Atago (not Tone)

No forgiveness required - no one can remember all the crazy names in the game's lexicon!
Anyway, I hope I answered your earlier question about which CAs start with KB ...

12/13/41
 
The world is flames!  Let slip the dogs of war!  The fox is in the henhouse!  Panzerjaager Hortlund is on a first name basis with a close friend of Roger Clemens who is fond of hyponemic durdles!  And the hyperbole is outa control! ...[and now back to our regularly scheduled AAR]:

NoPac:  The rampaging IJN TF turns out to be DD Sazanami and DD Ushio which promptly dispatche TK Hadnot and PC Crawford in the Gulf of Alaska.  Two subs then blockade the mouth of Puget Sound, sink two xAKL, and then hit mines (along with two SSX that do the same).  I'm guessing that I-16 and I-18 won't make it back home.  Meanwhile, the Japanese are landing at Attu Island.  My DD TF was just one day out, but we'll see if it can do any damage tomorrow.  What really concerns me is the possibility that Steve could've caught a whiff of Saratoga and could then try to chase her down. 

CenPac:  The main KB division remains posted north of French Frigate Shoals.  The other element long since disappeared (last seen near Johnston Island) and could be looking for Sara or even acting as the hammer to drive Sara into the anvil somewhere up north.  Over at Wake, Japan's invasion fell on hard times, but Steve is reinforcing.  But the Marine F3Fs, assisted by PBY patrol planes, have been tearing up the light transports, using a mix of bombs and shells to do the damage.  This is a new kind of weapon for me.

SWPac:  Oops, CA Canberra somehow left Milne and steamed for Sydney rather than Rabaul.  She'll turn around tonight.  Ent and Lex are not too far away.  The plan is to send one or both through the Torres Straights, though I'm wondering if Steve isn't waiting for just such a move.  I do have a small Aussie ASW TF set to check out the narrows near Horn Island.

Eastern DEI:  Japan didn't penetrate any further, so no action today.  Patrols report the main Mini KB, last seen in the Philippine Sea tearing up fleeing merchants, moving south and set to arrive near Morotai in a day or two.  We've just begun a little work on Fortress Koepang.  I'm also going to give some careful thought to Historiker's suggestion about Cocos Island.

Western DEI:  Japanese attack at Mersing fails but will succeed next time.  The Japanese are also landing at Singkawang.  B-17Ds out of Batavia hit the un-CAPed port at Kuching, putting two 500 pounders into badly damaged CA Kumano and another into an AV.  :)  That's one of my few good licks of the early war. 

Allied aircraft
     B-17D Fortress x 9 

No Allied losses

Japanese Ships
     CA Kumano, Bomb hits 2,  heavy damage
     AV Sagara Maru, Bomb hits 1,  on fire

Bay of Bengal:  Another IJN DD TF (two ships) tears into some Allied transports and tankers fleeing into the Great Nicobars region, sinking several.  I didn't see where these bad boys came from, but I hope they transited the Sunda Strait rather than the Malacca Straits.  Surely PH wouldn't do something like that?  Meanwhile, vulernable transports will have to temporarily move away from Port Blair lest they get hit.  That's bad, becuase they didn't unload.  Meanwhile, Japan took Victoria Point, so Steve has a level four airfield and I know he's considering an air drop on Port Blair.  Two RN CLs are on the way to Port Blair from Colombo, but I feel like this is a slow developing bad dream.

Philippines:  Steve tries a para-assault of Bataan.  I have no idea what he's thinking.  Perhaps he thought I'd move all those troops forward, but I hadn't, so the IJ 'chutists are no more.

The Acolyte: Steve seems to be an accolyte of the "shock and awe" variety of warfare. I'm duly aware of the gravity of the situation, but it's also just a wee bit humorous to see all these things going on here there and everywhere.  




 

Re: subs and mines [as opposed to hearts and minds or clowns and mimes] - Pre-upgrade I always thought the effect of mines was underpowered vs. real life. No way should a sub with little reserve bouyancy survive a mine hit. Post upgrade, the question came up so I did a little test. I started up Scenario 1 and moved a few of the IJN subs around Pearl Harbour to patrol in the mined base. I learned:

One mine hit ~ 25 pts floatation damage and similar system damage. Most survive a long trip home.

Three mine hits ~ 65 floatation damage and difficult to control because of the similar system damage. Almost all subs with three hits sink within six hexes.

Mine damage does not take effect until the end of the phase [night or day] or until the ship or sub is involved in combat in the same phase. This means one sub could hit five or six mines and the damage does not register until much later. Darned annoying when mine production is so low.

Bottom line - mine effects are still underpowered. I guess this is good for the game experience as you can dare to sneak into a mined port, but IRL such raids were unlikely.

CR - given the aggressiveness of your opponent, I would recommend careful consideration of your defensive options. Most likely, you'll be facing either an invasion of Australia or India - depending on which direction he jumps, so adequate preparations for that should be a priority. Your also looking for ways to counterpunch, which (as has been seen before) can pay great dividends when your opponent overstretches - but can also leave yourself vulnerable.

Basically, I recommend developing a "stop line" - where you can have a firm base of defense to limit the overall extension of your opponent, while not putting critical forces at risk of destruction either piecemeal or under unbreakable seige.

You always seem to find new and interesting ways to play - so this will be a great one to continue to watch. You have a good opponent here - so this should be a slugfest. Good luck!

This is interesting - the initial game setup has the CAs Tone and Chikuma in the Kuriles with KB. AFAIK, only the main KB TF can warp speed from the Kuriles; if he split it into a 4 plus 2 CV group I doubt that both groups would get warp speed.

There are multiple TFs up here with first turn movement bonus. You can easily rearrange them so a CV (I send Kaga) to Camrahn Bay on turn 1.

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

This is interesting - the initial game setup has the CAs Tone and Chikuma in the Kuriles with KB. AFAIK, only the main KB TF can warp speed from the Kuriles; if he split it into a 4 plus 2 CV group I doubt that both groups would get warp speed.

There are multiple TFs up here with first turn movement bonus. You can easily rearrange them so a CV (I send Kaga) to Camrahn Bay on turn 1.

Ah - right - now I remember that there were other [invasion?] TFs in the same hex with KB at the start. I never considered putting a KB carrier with a warp speed invasion force, but if you wanted to split the KB and have your CV end up far away that would be the way to do it. Good to know the possibilities. Thanks NYG!

If you try the "Mersing Gambit" as Japan, having a heavy CV as floating CAP is a must, IMO. I chose Kaga as she is the slowest CV.

I've read and appreciate all comments and suggestions.  I have a bit of a breather today, so here are my overall thoughts based upon the first week of the war.
 
My Opponent and Me:  PH is experienced and hyper-aggressive.  He is either an acolyte of Nemo or Nemo is an acolyte of him (or perhaps it's better to say they come from the same litter of pups).  He likes engaging in reparte (I don't) and he is pushing the envelope to rattle me (I don't get rattled by the smaller stuff like the paratroop assaults and deep destroyer raids hither and yon, but I do get nervous when major operations target a vital area like India or Australia).  He's doing a very good job thus far.
 
Strategic Objective:  There are only two that I can really do anything about - Oz and India - so that's where I'm concentrating: 
 
Oz:  Troops have already been shuffled around and prep reset with the major emphasis on Melbourne and Sydney.  Garrisons have been stiffened in the base hexes to either side of Melbourne (likely invasion areas if PH wishes to go for the jugular quickly).  Some of the key rail line bases also get small garrison to prevent loss to paratroops.  I'll try to send one USA division this way early in the war, though accumulating PP is a challenge.  When I have enough, I'll choose between Oz and India based upon my evaluation of the threat levels. (Memo to Self:  Evaluate sending Kiwi units to Oz if doing so is efficient from a PP standpoint.)
 
India:  Karachi and Bombay will get the bulk of the garrison troops, with enough in Calcutta to provide a decent road block.  Two Marine regiments and a few other units (including 10th Air Force) are enroute.  A USA division will be allocated, though PP will make it tough to accomplish in the foreseeable future.  Port Blair and Diego Garcia are to get decent garrisons with a Marine CD unit going to Socotra (Scoodra, as GreyJoy would say) though I may divert it closer to the front if circumstances warrant. 
 
China:  Has to stand by itself and won't get much help from India in the way of supply (Steve will attend to the Burma Road expeditiously). 
 
Alaska:  I want to use a few small units to garrison the key islands as best I can.  This isn't a critical theater, but I don't want Steve to be able to waltz forward when even small garrisons would stop him during the winter months.
 
Hawaii and New Zealand:  On their own, although I may be able to scrape together the occasional small unit to attend to some of the islands between the two.
 
Russia:  Nothing much I can do here beyond what I'm doing (building forts and training).
 
Summary:  As stated a few days ago, my first hunch is "Oz."  I have no evidence to back that hunch yet, so it's just that - a hunch.  At the moment, both India and Oz will get as much as I can give them.
 
Tactical Matters that May Turn Strategic:  That enemy DD TF that rampaged around Great Nicobar is a tactical matter than could have a strategic impact.  I have vulnerable transports at Port Blair that will unload tonight.  I'm leaving them there despite the risk, because it's possible that Steve will para assault Port Blair tomorrow or the next day.  IE, it could be now or never.  I'm hoping those DDs are out of ammo.  Two RN CLs are on the way.  It's also possible that DDs will raid Colombo, which has no combat ships present.  There, too, a transport TF was about to unload an Indian brigade.  So Steve's little raid has impacts far beyond what they should.  Had the raid happened one day later, both transport TFs would have been mostly unloaded.  Taut times!
 

Isn´t there a possibility that he will strike at China first? If he goes all in he can probably secure China in what, 3-6 months? That would still give him time to make a major thrust in either Oz or India. Much the same thing rader did?

I don´t know how important China would be from a Jap perspective but given the current imbalances in that theatre I would think Hortlund to atleast consider it. Given his hurry to cut off the Burma road would also point to this. That being said it not much, if anything you can do about it. But it would buy you a few extra months of digging in other theatres.

I realize that China's long term prospects are not good against an aggressvie attack by an experienced Japanese player.  However, I am pretty confident in my ability to handle the Chinese army.  I don't have any experience with China being conquered, so I don't know all the ins and outs of things, but I do think I can slow Japan considerably.

It will take much longer than 3-6 months to secure China, more like 18 at least.

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I realize that China's long term prospects are not good against an aggressvie attack by an experienced Japanese player.  However, I am pretty confident in my ability to handle the Chinese army.  I don't have any experience with China being conquered, so I don't know all the ins and outs of things, but I do think I can slow Japan considerably.

I noticed in the thread on the main forum that you say there are no HRs this time. I had not realized that.

Re China, you have always (?) had a "no strat bombing in China" HR in previous games, right? That's my recollection at least. IF you have no such here, and IF he cuts or has cut the Burma Road already, and IF he secures Sumatra sooner than later, you may want to add China to the strat list with Oz and India. I think a China First strategy if well supported by a sally into India up to Calcutta to get at HI points, but no farther. Also, a hint will be if he goes slow in the PI LCU-count-wise and instead sends those extra Scen 2 troops up the middle in China. You'll know inside a month which, but until then you might want to have a really, really good look at Chinese supply and if it matches up with the troop locations. Rader did some things well, and his taking of China was something to study. You're not Greyjoy, but then again bombing is bombing the world round.

You have a good memory, Moose.  I've typically requested a "no strat bombing in China until 1944" HR, with a corresponding agreement of none in the DEI until the same date.

In this game we started with no HR and agreed to play reasonably.  Of course, that's a vague term that two people will interpret differently, so who knows what will happen.

If Steve starts strat bombing in China, then all bets are off.  The Allies really don't have any way to counter that.  But at this point I'd rather see how things develop than to begin broaching the HR topic.

You make a good point about Luzon.  Thus far Steve hasn't given it alot of attention (same goes for Malaya).  He's allowing the troops to retire in good order to the main redoubts.  I don't know yet whether he's committed or diverted the main elements of the Luzon army.  In one of my previous games, Q-Ball diverted them in order to expedite his moves on Singapore, Sumatra and then India.  So I'm keeping my eyes open. 

I personally think Oz is the easier of the two strategic targets, but India holds its own allure.  It has always drawn the bold and adventurous IJ players.

I've already attended to shifting around my transport fleet.  As soon as possible I'll commence sending some big supply convoys to Oz and India.  I'll also have transports in position to handle reinforcements should Steve cross the various Lines of Death. 

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

[
Philippines:  Steve tries a para-assault of Bataan.  I have no idea what he's thinking.  Perhaps he thought I'd move all those troops forward, but I hadn't, so the IJ 'chutists are no more.

This was not a bad move. It was only an outside chance of success but he has lost very little and it was worth a try. I give him credit for thinking of it because if it worked, you would have had a very serious problem. If he did it without pounding you with his bombers before hand then I suspect it just was a mistake though as you really need to disrupt before trying it and he would know that.

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I realize that China's long term prospects are not good against an aggressvie attack by an experienced Japanese player.  However, I am pretty confident in my ability to handle the Chinese army.  I don't have any experience with China being conquered, so I don't know all the ins and outs of things, but I do think I can slow Japan considerably.

The big thing is to never allow him to drive a wedge between your main Chinese armies and Burma. You can and probably will lose everything else but as long as you block his access to Burma, it really will not matter.

I´m glad you are optimistic about China! Hopefully you will be able to hold on. Watch the supplies though...it will run out eventually and probably sooner then you wished for! [:)]

Thanks, JocMeister.  But just to keep the record accurate, I didn't say I was optmistic about China.  Rather, I'm confident in my ability to handle the Chinese army, thanks mostly to my experience in three previous PBEM games.  IE, I know what to do with the Chinese units, but whether other circumstances overcome that knowledge is yet to be determined. 

[:)]