Page 7 of 116

Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.

Posted: Tue Feb 25, 2025 12:19 am
by rkr1958
Turn 4. Mar/Apr 1940. Axis #3. Asian Theater.

Pre-Brief.
(1) Japan will take a land and focus on two combat objectives in China (Tin RP 90,138 & Chengchow) and bolstering Umezu's army group in Manchuria).
(2) Getting a supply & oil convoy line open up to Persia is deferred for later in THIS turn.
Slide17.PNG
Slide17.PNG (138.18 KiB) Viewed 567 times
Attack Planning.
(3) Both combat objectives "recommend" HQ support (Terauchi for Chengchow & Yamamoto for Chi 89,139, which is one of two hexes required to "free" up the transport of Tin RP 90,138 to factory).
03-AL-Asian-AP.png
03-AL-Asian-AP.png (36.83 KiB) Viewed 567 times
Land Combat Actuals.
Chengchow, China.
(4) LC actual was higher than planned, +11A (79% PWIN) vs +9A (64% PWIN) due to under counting attacker LCF by 7!
(5) Definitely a welcomed error.
03-AX-Asian-LC-Actual-Chengchow-China.png
03-AX-Asian-LC-Actual-Chengchow-China.png (251.56 KiB) Viewed 567 times
China 89,139.
(6) LC actual matched planned.
03-AX-Asian-LC-Actual-CHI-89-183.png
03-AX-Asian-LC-Actual-CHI-89-183.png (248.78 KiB) Viewed 567 times

Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.

Posted: Tue Feb 25, 2025 12:26 am
by rkr1958
Turn 4. Mar/Apr 1940. Axis #3. Asian Theater.

Combat Logs.
03-AL-Asian-CL.png
03-AL-Asian-CL.png (92.83 KiB) Viewed 564 times
China. End of Impulse.
(1) All that's left to get Tin RP in southern China to factory is "pushing" Chiang and the Nationalist out of the adjacent hex.
(2) Note that the 10% ground strike versus the 17th inf army east of Nanning puts that army at risk as supply can easily by broken by the IJA 25th inf army moving directly west 1-hex.
(3) However; to do this the IJA needs a land or combine, which is unlikely next axis impulse as the IJN should get their naval.
(4) The hostility between the Japanese army and navy is reaching a boiling point in Tokyo.
03-AX-Asian-China.png
03-AX-Asian-China.png (2.13 MiB) Viewed 564 times

Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.

Posted: Tue Feb 25, 2025 12:26 am
by rkr1958
Turn 4. Mar/Apr 1940. Axis #3. Asian Theater.

Manchuria. End of Impulse.
03-AX-Asian-Manchuria-EOI.png
03-AX-Asian-Manchuria-EOI.png (2.04 MiB) Viewed 563 times

Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.

Posted: Tue Feb 25, 2025 12:29 am
by rkr1958
Turn 4. Mar/Apr 1940. Axis #3. Med.

Pre-Brief.
Slide16.PNG
Slide16.PNG (112.88 KiB) Viewed 561 times
Combat Logs.
03-AL-Med-CL.png
03-AL-Med-CL.png (35.72 KiB) Viewed 561 times
End of Impulse.
03-AX-Med-North-Africa-EOI.png
03-AX-Med-North-Africa-EOI.png (1.83 MiB) Viewed 561 times

Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.

Posted: Tue Feb 25, 2025 12:32 am
by rkr1958
Turn 4. Mar/Apr 1940. Axis #3. Eastern Front.

Combat Logs.
03-AL-Eastern-CL.png
03-AL-Eastern-CL.png (30.69 KiB) Viewed 560 times

Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.

Posted: Tue Feb 25, 2025 12:33 am
by rkr1958
Turn 4. Mar/Apr 1940. Axis #3. Western Front.

Pre-Brief.
Slide14.PNG
Slide14.PNG (132.17 KiB) Viewed 559 times
Slide15.PNG
Slide15.PNG (133.56 KiB) Viewed 559 times
Attack Planning.
(1) Plan 1 - blitz vis Belgium 53,31 (Fr 3 stack, tank corps, inf corps, AT div) IF a corps or better flipped (i.e., LC(+) > 2).
(2) Otherwise; Plan 2 - assault UK (MIL & inf corps) in Antwerp, Belgium & 50/50 assault on French fort complex in Strasbourg.
(3) Plan 3 (independent of plan 1 or 2) was consider by Italy to push into France and captured Nice.
(4) This plan was rejected as too risky!
03-AL-Western-AP.png
03-AL-Western-AP.png (72.99 KiB) Viewed 559 times

Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.

Posted: Tue Feb 25, 2025 12:52 am
by rkr1958
Turn 4. Mar/Apr 1940. Axis #3. Western Front.

AA Fire Decision.
(1) France had two opportunities to oppose the Luftwaffe ground strike vs Belgium 53,31 (either or both by air intercept or AA fire).
(2) France declined the air-to-air intercept.
(3) The decision on whether or not to opposed by AA fire was made based on minimum expected +LC.
(4) For no fire, Ex[+LC | no AA fire] = (4/10) x 5 = +2.0
(5) For (-1/6) AA fire, Ex[+LC | AA fire] = ({4-1.98)/10) x 4 + 1 = +1.81, which is less than +2.0 expect if not firing; therefore, decision was made to fire.
(6) Note that Ex[+LC | AA fire] includes a base +1 for the AA div flipping after firing, leaving 2 corps (i.e., +4) "effectively" subject to the ground strike.
(7) The ground strike flipped the AA div, which was flipping after firing anyway!, and missed both corps.
(8) Therefore; it was plan 2 (assault Antwerp & Strasbourg).
03-AX-Western-FR-AA-Fire-Chart.png
03-AX-Western-FR-AA-Fire-Chart.png (105.72 KiB) Viewed 548 times
Land Combat Actuals.
Antwerp, Belgium.
(9) LC Actual of +9.5A (68%) was slightly better than planned +8.75A (61.8%).
(10) Every little bit helps, or should help.
03-AX-Western-LC-Actual-Antwerp.png
03-AX-Western-LC-Actual-Antwerp.png (210.42 KiB) Viewed 548 times
Strasbourg, France.
(11) LC Actual of +2.143A (46.4%) was significantly lower than planned +3.4A (58.6%).
(12) This was due to either planning optimist or oversight of unopposable French ground support of (+2 GSF).
03-AX-Western-LC-Actual-Strasbourg.png
03-AX-Western-LC-Actual-Strasbourg.png (228.66 KiB) Viewed 548 times

Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.

Posted: Tue Feb 25, 2025 12:58 am
by rkr1958
Turn 4. Mar/Apr 1940. Axis #3. Western Front.

Combat Logs.
(1) Oh well, both assaults failed (17.2% chance) and resulted in the lose of eng div, SS inf div, MIL corps (7 BPs).
(2) In truth, a setback not requiring a "morale check" given likely weather next impulse pair.
(3) Also, Germany does have what looks to be a 50/50 or so blitz shot vs the French tank army (tank corps, inf corps, AT div) if weather is fine.
(4) While not pleasant, not a disaster.
03-AL-Western-CL.png
03-AL-Western-CL.png (84.63 KiB) Viewed 545 times
Europe. End of Impulse.
03-AX-Europe-EOI.png
03-AX-Europe-EOI.png (2.94 MiB) Viewed 545 times

Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.

Posted: Sat Mar 01, 2025 10:07 pm
by rkr1958
Turn 4. Mar/Apr 1940. Allied #4. Western Allies.

Pre-Brief.
Slide19.PNG
Slide19.PNG (151.58 KiB) Viewed 500 times
Battle of the Atlantic.
Threat.
04-AL-BOA-Threat.png
04-AL-BOA-Threat.png (28.76 KiB) Viewed 500 times
Risk Assessment.
04-AL-BOA-Initial-Risk-Assessment.png
04-AL-BOA-Initial-Risk-Assessment.png (47.67 KiB) Viewed 500 times
Combat Logs.
04-AL-BOA-CL.png
04-AL-BOA-CL.png (24.43 KiB) Viewed 500 times

Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.

Posted: Sat Mar 01, 2025 10:09 pm
by rkr1958
Turn 4. Mar/Apr 1940. Allied #4. Western Allies (+)

Western Front.
Attack Planning (Projected German).
04-AL-Western-AP-Projected.png
04-AL-Western-AP-Projected.png (25.04 KiB) Viewed 498 times
Combat Logs.
04-AL-Western-CL.png
04-AL-Western-CL.png (46.37 KiB) Viewed 498 times
Europe. End of Impulse.
04-AL-Europe-EOI.png
04-AL-Europe-EOI.png (2.7 MiB) Viewed 499 times
Eastern Front. Combat Logs.
04-AL-Eastern-CL.png
04-AL-Eastern-CL.png (30.76 KiB) Viewed 499 times

Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.

Posted: Sat Mar 01, 2025 11:34 pm
by rkr1958
Turn 4. Mar/Apr 1940. Allied #4. Western Allies. Med.

Combat Logs.
04-AL-MTO-CL.png
04-AL-MTO-CL.png (24.3 KiB) Viewed 492 times
End of Impulse.
04-AL-Med-EOI.png
04-AL-Med-EOI.png (2.04 MiB) Viewed 492 times

Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.

Posted: Sat Mar 01, 2025 11:35 pm
by rkr1958
Turn 4. Mar/Apr 1940. Allied #4. USSR.

Pre-Brief.
Slide18.PNG
Slide18.PNG (133.67 KiB) Viewed 492 times
Middle East. Persia.
Attack Planning.
04-AL-Middle-East-AP.png
04-AL-Middle-East-AP.png (51.38 KiB) Viewed 492 times
Combat Logs.
04-AL-Middle-East-CL.png
04-AL-Middle-East-CL.png (41.64 KiB) Viewed 492 times
End of Impulse.
04-AL-Middle-East-Persia.png
04-AL-Middle-East-Persia.png (1.98 MiB) Viewed 492 times

Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.

Posted: Sat Mar 01, 2025 11:37 pm
by rkr1958
Turn 4. Mar/Apr 1940. Allied #4. USSR.

Soviet Asia. End of Impulse.
04-AL-Asian-Manchuria.png
04-AL-Asian-Manchuria.png (1.9 MiB) Viewed 491 times

Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.

Posted: Sat Mar 01, 2025 11:39 pm
by rkr1958
Turn 4. Mar/Apr 1940. Allied #4. China. Nationalist & CCP.

Pre-Brief.
Slide20.PNG
Slide20.PNG (139.17 KiB) Viewed 490 times
Attack Planning.
04-AL-Asian-AP.png
04-AL-Asian-AP.png (22.72 KiB) Viewed 490 times
Land Combat Actual.
04-AL-Asian-LCA-China-75-141.png
04-AL-Asian-LCA-China-75-141.png (261.19 KiB) Viewed 490 times
Combat Logs.
04-AL-Asian-CL.png
04-AL-Asian-CL.png (46.73 KiB) Viewed 490 times

Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.

Posted: Sat Mar 01, 2025 11:40 pm
by rkr1958
Turn 4. Mar/Apr 1940. Allied #4. China. Nationalist & CCP.

End of Impulse.
04-AL-Asian-China.png
04-AL-Asian-China.png (2.02 MiB) Viewed 489 times

Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.

Posted: Wed Mar 05, 2025 9:29 pm
by rkr1958
Turn 4. Mar/Apr 1940. Axis #5. Euro-Axis.

Pre-Brief.
Slide21.PNG
Slide21.PNG (125.56 KiB) Viewed 440 times
Atlantic. Combat Logs.
05-AX-Atlantic-CL.png
05-AX-Atlantic-CL.png (48.97 KiB) Viewed 440 times

Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.

Posted: Wed Mar 05, 2025 9:30 pm
by rkr1958
Turn 4. Mar/Apr 1940. Axis #5. Euro-Axis. Med.

Combat Logs.
05-AX-Med-CL.png
05-AX-Med-CL.png (36.97 KiB) Viewed 439 times
French North Africa. End of Impulse.
05-AX-Med-French-North-Africa-EOI.png
05-AX-Med-French-North-Africa-EOI.png (2.44 MiB) Viewed 439 times

Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.

Posted: Wed Mar 05, 2025 9:31 pm
by rkr1958
Turn 4. Mar/Apr 1940. Axis #5. Euro-Axis. Europe.

Combat Logs.
Eastern Front.
05-AX-Eastern-CL.png
05-AX-Eastern-CL.png (34.17 KiB) Viewed 438 times
Western Front.
05-AX-Western-CL.png
05-AX-Western-CL.png (23.82 KiB) Viewed 438 times
End of Impulse.
05-AX-Europe-EOI.png
05-AX-Europe-EOI.png (3.34 MiB) Viewed 438 times

Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.

Posted: Wed Mar 05, 2025 9:33 pm
by rkr1958
Turn 4. Mar/Apr 1940. Axis #5. Japan. Pre-Brief.
Slide22.PNG
Slide22.PNG (145.55 KiB) Viewed 434 times

Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.

Posted: Wed Mar 05, 2025 9:34 pm
by rkr1958
Turn 4. Mar/Apr 1940. Axis #5. Asian Theater.

Attack Planning.
05-AX-Asian-AP.png
05-AX-Asian-AP.png (21.97 KiB) Viewed 433 times
Land Combat Actuals.
E1-Nanning, China.
05-AX-Asian-LCA-E1-Nanning.png
05-AX-Asian-LCA-E1-Nanning.png (266.06 KiB) Viewed 433 times
China 74,142.
05-AX-Asian-LCA-CHI-74-142.png
05-AX-Asian-LCA-CHI-74-142.png (274.03 KiB) Viewed 433 times
Combat Logs.
05-AX-Asian-CL.png
05-AX-Asian-CL.png (61.47 KiB) Viewed 433 times