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Full update tomorrow but a quick note. In tonight's replay, the 15 surviving B-17s in NW Oz visit our lone tank regiment SW of the enemy stack near Daly Waters. Those Nick pilots are getting VERY good. They make determined passes, close to 1 hex range and deliver a wallop. For the second raid in a row, CF loses 5 B-17Es! This was confirmed by Tracker. Banzai! [&o]

August 5, 1942

Subs

No contacts.

4th Fleet

The enemy CVs and BBs are spotted loitering 1 hex NW of Wallis Island. They seem to be moving slowly toward Fiji - perhaps covering minimal ground due to at sea refueling or perhaps lingering in the hope we will expose a hasty counterattack force to destruction.

Eniewetok forts go to level 3; Wotje to level 4.

SE Fleet

No change.

14th Army

All troops are unloaded at Lingayen and the march to Clark begins.

16th Army

Sepandjang occupied.

We had the Nicks LRCAPing Daly but they leak 2 hexes over to protect our lone flanking tank regiment. 5 more B-17Es are destroyed. That group is becoming elite and hopefully putting doubts in CF's mind about 4Es.

25th Army

No change.

15th Army

Blenheims hit the Imperial Guards near Akyab. We will LRCAP in response.

Trincomalee makes level 5 airfield.

China

Both sides are marching on. Our goal is the capture of the 3 bases near Changsha, then isolation of Changsha.

Combined Fleet

Combined Fleet arrives at Truk without incident. We will see what the enemy wants to do next while planning a Baker Island Op.

August 6, 1942

A quiet day and thus a short report.

Subs

I-155, patrolling near Madras due to radio intercepts, puts a TT into CL Glasgow. Banzai! The hit is tempered by the fact it doesn't seem too severe and that an escorting DD puts a DC into the sub. She'll survive but must RTB.

4th Fleet

Nells from TB bomb troops at Baker and discover that only 1st Marine Raiders appears to be present.

SE Fleet

Shortlands reconned for the first time. CF continues to at least make it look like SWPAC is his primary target.

25th Army

Palembang makes level 4 forts.

Combined Fleet

Holding at Truk while we probe enemy dispositions and intentions with subs and search planes.

August 7, 1942

Subs

Grayback duds on an xAK near Kushiro. I-153, lurking at the southern tip of Ceylon, puts a second TT into CL Glasgow. Nice. The sub takes the inevitable penetrating hit from the deadly UK ASW escorts and will retire. The cruiser is claimed sunk but we doubt it.

4th Fleet

Nells bomb Baker's airfield today with decent results. No sign of the enemy battle fleet. If they go to Fiji they will hit a wolf pack of subs. If we don't see them Cribtop Intel guesses they retired to Auckland.

SE Fleet

Enemy recon of the Solomons continues. The stark lack of recon over New Guinea is intriguing. Although it could be misdirection, we doubt it. Cribtop recon doctrine is to use the "Wild Weasel" approach by reconning everything in a sector and thus masking areas of emphasis. This is of course easier to do as Japan with its surfeit of recon groups.

Munda Point is just within extreme range of Luganville for B-17s. We upgrade 13th Sentai in Japan to Nicks and will ship that unit to Munda to provide point defense of the base.

14th Army

All units arrive at Clark today. DA tomorrow. Raw AS is 1700ish to 600ish.

16th Army

Kolaka invaded by a regiment to finish the third to last Dutch occupied base. DA tomorrow.

We continue to bomb the unmoving enemy armor near Daly. Our armored counteroffensive moves a hex over the open desert toward Tennant. It will be fun if we snag this base in the enemy's rear on the cheap.

25th Army

We are optimizing search groups and pickets while draining a ton of raw materials. Stocks of all materials in the Home Islands are surging.

15th Army

A regiment is approaching Ramree Island by ship to reinforce the garrison and free up the para unit currently augmenting an RTA unit. It appears that the recent Blenheim raids on our divisions were "recon by bombing" to confirm unit ID.

China

We tried to take Shaoyang on the cheap in order to move quickly on Changsha. The effort fails but losses are tiny. The DA achieved 1:2 odds, casualties 1034(9) vs 259(2), so we came out ahead there. We'll move more of 17th Army to Shaoyang to finish the job.

Hengyang makes level 3 forts. The 6 undamaged enemy combat corps SW of Hengyang move one hex toward Pingsiang today. This creates an opportunity as 13th Army is about to enter the hex SW of Hengyang and should get the chance to retreat the 11 LCUs still in the hex for a third time. Nice. We will not contest a recapture of Pingsiang but rather will shadow the enemy and try to get him trapped as he moves on. We have pulled 95% of the 179K resource points out of Pingsiang.

Combined Fleet

The fleet sits at Truk awaiting arrival of the upgraded Soryu and Hiryu.

August 8, 1942

Subs

A RO boat near Fiji reports being spotted by aircraft. This was the easternmost sub in the Fiji wolf pack and Cribtop Intel evaluates it as evidence the enemy carriers steamed by bound for Auckland or perhaps Oz.

4th Fleet

Nells hit Baker's airfield, scoring numerous hits including 8 supply.

SE Fleet

We pull all aircraft out of Munda Point today, hoping CF will continue recon and become confused as to the location of our planes. We can't afford to keep them out indefinitely as the Bettys here provide a portion of the interconnected line of air search running from the Kuriles to Burma.

Townsville makes level 5 port, Port Augusta level 3.

14th Army

DA at Clark goes well, dropping forts to 2 and achieving 2:1 odds. Supply must be critical for the enemy. Casualties are 1679(71) vs 1681(50). 31 of the 50 IJA squads destroyed were guns and support from the large siege artillery park we have assembled. I suppose it results from effective American counter-battery fire. We will rest tomorrow to re-charge supply, then hit again. Our LCUs are in excellent shape. General Homma believes the base will fall after one or two more attacks.

16th Army

We ordered our Nicks to LRCAP Daly Waters, but restricted range from Katherine such that they wouldn't venture farther. The enemy sends 14 Kittyhawks to sweep the nearby lone IJA tank unit's position. Despite orders, 26 Nicks leak over anyway (not cool). Our fears of a massacre are not realized as the brave and now veteran Nicks hold their own. Total losses in A2A are 7 Nicks for 5 Kittys, which is outstanding. Although 3 more Nicks are written off, only 3 pilots are lost. Tracker shows losses from all causes to be 10 Nicks for 6 Kittyhawks. Banzai!

DA Kolaka rounds up the starving survivors of the Kendari garrison. Our regiment will rest a bit, then attack Matarem, finishing DBCL work in this AO.

25th Army

No change.

15th Army

Recon incredibly shows no fighters protecting 20ish ships at anchor at Calcutta (recall we hit this port hard and CF moved in fighters soon after). Two Netty groups will hit the port tomorrow, covered by Oscar sweeps from multiple bases just in case.

Zeros and more Oscars will LRCAP Ramree Island as a regiment offloads there tomorrow.

China

Both sides are jockeying for position near Changsha. The enemy's stack near Wuchow has turned back and is now retreating toward Japanese occupied Kukong. We will meet him there and hope to trap him.

Combined Fleet

Hiryu and Soryu will make Truk tomorrow, concentrating all IJN CVs and CVLs. Then we shall see.

August 9, 1942

A fun day in Burma has Cuttlefish threatening war crimes trials via e-mail. [:D]

Subs

No contacts. We have a sub lurking near Auckland in case the enemy CVs are headed here.

4th Fleet

We are combat loading the Nav Guard unit bound for TB today at Kwaj.

SE Fleet

CF recons a now empty Munda. Maybe we'll throw him off for a time. Shortlands makes level 3 port and will switch back to building forts up to level 6.

14th Army

We are back in the white at Clark and order a DA for tomorrow.

16th Army

A rare quiet day here.

25th Army

We load DBCL forces to clear up the islands off Sumatra and a few empty bases in southern Borneo.

15th Army

The attack on Calcutta is a success. First, we sweep with Oscars but there is no CAP. Then a wonderfully co-ordinated strike sees every Netty in 15th Army AO hit the Calcutta port. When the smoke clears, we sink an xAP outright, put 13 xAKs in a "heavy fires, heavy damage" state, and do lesser damage to three other vessels. No aircraft are lost except for one Oscar that's a write off after landing. BANZAI! We are surprised the enemy didn't maintain a CAP here. Surely he will have to now.

Elsewhere, an amphib TF arrives at Ramree Island under heavy LRCAP and begins to unload without being spotted or attacked.

China

13th Army beats up the unfortunate 11 LCUs that were twice defeated at Hengyang, sending them packing toward the six effective LCUs one hex west of Pingsiang. Odds are 10:1, casualties 2932(182) vs 120(1). After a failed shock attack and two forced retreats, these LCUs must be in awful shape. This victory also opens a new and shorter LoC from 17th Army to the coast.

17th Army arrives at Shaoyang and will DA tomorrow with heavy air support.

Combined Fleet

Hiryu, Soryu and Ryujo arrive safely at Truk. MKB is now fully assembled. If we read correctly, the CV co-ordination penalty kicks in when a task force exceeds 400 aircraft. Is that read accurate? If so, we are able to put all CVs and CVLs into two TFs without penalty. If we need to get below 300, we will have to go with three TFs, which will eat up fleet DDs.

Other

While we're asking questions:

1) How do you convert an R&D factory to the next model without damage? Any magic to it other than changing the month before the current model goes into production?

2) We have 75k armaments points in the pools. Is this enough or should we "bank" 100K?

3) When Japan gets SigInt for a Japanese controlled base, does that mean the radio message was a SigInt report for the Allies? Just curious. I could see them being coast watchers but sometimes it happens at inland bases too.

1) How do you convert an R&D factory to the next model without damage? Any magic to it other than changing the month before the current model goes into production?

2) We have 75k armaments points in the pools. Is this enough or should we "bank" 100K?

If you have it fully repaired, you can click on "NO" under the Upgrade for that particular airframe. That way it will not change over to a production factory. I assume you are using the new official patch, so it goes back to this being changed a few beta ago. Just click on the next model in the series you want to R&D. However, DO NOT skip one to get to the third in line. An example would be the Ki-44 Tojo. You want the 'a' version and then skip over the 'b' to start R&D on the 'c' model. You can click on a fully repaired 'a' model and select the 'b' model. then, click on the 'c' model. If you skip over the 'b' model then most of your R&R will now be damaged.

I would say get to 100k, but turn off some of your factories to allow just a slow build up. I'm aiming for 20k in vehicles.

I think we're using the beta right before the one that put FoW on industries. Is there a new official patch? Do we have to upgrade to the latest beta before upgrading?

The new official patch that just came out includes all the various fixes and enhancements that were done through r9. I would go ahead and upgrade your game.

August 10, 1942

Subs

Tarpon sniffs at a CS convoy but is chased off by escorts.

4th Fleet

No change.

SE Fleet

Lunga is the latest base in the enemy's reconfest. Gasmata makes level 3 airfield.

Cribtop HQ orders a small tank unit forward to Tulagi to further beef up the defense.

14th Army

DA at Clark goes well but just misses taking the base. Odds are 2:1, forts drop to 1, casualties 1067(52) vs 1365(51). Again most of our losses are from the arty units, who will stop firing in support. You can really tell the difference fighting the Americans. Still, one more attack should take the base, and enemy adjusted AV is collapsing as forts drop and combat drains what meager supply they had.

16th Army

Weather scrubs air Ops in NW Oz. I'm amazed this place is a desert given how often it seems to rain.

25th Army

No change.

15th Army

The Ramree Island regiment fully unloads without incident and the TF will retire to Rangoon and then Singers.

Recon reveals that CF has finally posted transports at Ledo. This is a good indicator of China's deteriorating supply state. We will bomb and LRCAP to intercept the transports.

China

DA Shaoyang takes the base with 5:1 odds, and even here, where the enemy has an intact LoC to Chungking, we see a "supply(-)" modifier. Excellent. 6 LCUs retreat toward Changsha, casualties 7852(545) vs 285(5). The last two days have destroyed another two months worth of Chinese replacements. Things are starting to tip our way, but Changsha is shaping up to be a big and important battle.

Combined Fleet

We're loitering at Truk, trying to gauge whether CF has another move quickly planned and contemplating the reconquest of Baker and a possible defensive battle in the Solomons.

As we study the enemy's latest moves, we see a major deployment of carriers and surface assets to seize Baker Island with a single small raider unit. The fleet then was spotted retiring SW toward New Zealand or Oz. Meanwhile, the US is reconning bases in the Solomons.

The easy interpretation is that CF is coming at SWPAC, and he very well may be. However, we have to keep in mind that this all could be a smokescreen. He could easily refuel and refit at Oz before launching an invasion of NW Oz, Timor or Java. A move this aggressive doesn't seem to fit CF's style to date, but the possibility cannot be discounted. With every day that passes from the small invasion of Baker it looks more like a feint. It's still too soon to tell, but it worries Cribtop HQ as we are temporarily very weak in the DEI.

What do the readers think about this? If you know something from reading CF's AAR, obviously please refrain from comment.

Crib, sorry to interrupt, but I have a question for you.....I confess in advance to feeling like the dunce, but I (as Allies) have to withdraw a land unit tomorrow. It actually says "withdraw from the theater", but I cannot figure out how to do this. Do I put it in strat mode and rail it to the East Coast or will the withdraw button come to life when the day arrives (tomoorow)? Does it have to be with its parent HQ or in some large port? It is in SanFran, but not with Pacific Fleet HQ. I really don't want to lose any PP for failure to W/D this Coastal Art unit, but, for the life of me, I cannot find anything in the manual on withdrawing LCUs. Air, yes; ships, check...but LCU, nope.

Help a friend.

Princep, it'll just go *poof* into the ether all by itself.

Many thanks, Mr Solli. I could just see all my carefully hoarded PPs going up in smoke and flame.

Princep - no worries, until about 3 weeks ago I didn't know the answer either. Mike is right, it just boards Poof the Magic Dragon and flies away on rose colored fairy wings.

Cuttlerfishes last post was 12/11/11. June 7 1942, game time. Since you two are still playing, I assume everything is alright with him. You are the only news we are getting from your game at this point.

ORIGINAL: Cribtop

As we study the enemy's latest moves, we see a major deployment of carriers and surface assets to seize Baker Island with a single small raider unit. The fleet then was spotted retiring SW toward New Zealand or Oz. Meanwhile, the US is reconning bases in the Solomons.

The easy interpretation is that CF is coming at SWPAC, and he very well may be. However, we have to keep in mind that this all could be a smokescreen. He could easily refuel and refit at Oz before launching an invasion of NW Oz, Timor or Java. A move this aggressive doesn't seem to fit CF's style to date, but the possibility cannot be discounted. With every day that passes from the small invasion of Baker it looks more like a feint. It's still too soon to tell, but it worries Cribtop HQ as we are temporarily very weak in the DEI.

What do the readers think about this? If you know something from reading CF's AAR, obviously please refrain from comment.

Or the much simpler interpretation that Cuttlefish is merely shortening his SLOCs and removing potential forward Japanese seaplane bases.

Alfred

@princep - PS, ships are not like ground units. They must be withdrawn at a major base or even the national capital (not sure as I haven't played Allies except a few short AI games). Lots of PPs can be lost if a ship needing withdrawal is out of position.

@adm - Sorry to hear CF isn't updating. He is doing well per e-mail. I think his daughter had a child recently and he couldn't keep up with his AAR as they were helping out a lot. He recently mentioned he was going to get back at it, hopefully he will.

@Alfred - Very true; that could be all it is. I'm choosing to look at it from the worst perspective (surprise attack on a temporarily weak but important sector at just the right moment). Plan for the worst, hope for the best and all that. For the moment, Combined Fleet will stay at Truk while Glen subs, pickets and recon/seaplanes will probe around south Oz just to be sure. We may even send a few old DDs on a raid for the express purpose of seeing what hornets are in the nest. Thanks for the input.

ORIGINAL: Cribtop

@Alfred - Very true; that could be all it is. I'm choosing to look at it from the worst perspective (surprise attack on a temporarily weak but important sector at just the right moment). Plan for the worst, hope for the best and all that. For the moment, Combined Fleet will stay at Truk while Glen subs, pickets and recon/seaplanes will probe around south Oz just to be sure. We may even send a few old DDs on a raid for the express purpose of seeing what hornets are in the nest. Thanks for the input.

I don't see the point in waiting any more.

At this stage of the war you should be looking forward to pitting the KB against the Allied carriers. If you aren't then you should be hiding the KB from any combat unless it can be so engineered to occur within Japanese LBA controlled airspace. As those conditions of Japanese LBA superiority do not apply to Baker Island then you have been wasting time and assets preparing for a counter invasion of Baker Island.

By now the Allied carriers are probably too far away from Baker Island to appear in time to oppose a Japanese counter invasion. therefore the main price of counter invading is already lost. Still the opportunity to destroy the Allied garrison and perhaps catch a resupply TF, together with invalidating the entire purpose of the Allied move, remains a worthwhile price.

Waiting until you establish whether the Allied carriers are en route to an operations elsewhere is handing to the Allied the initiative. You know what I think about that, that Japan must not adopt a static defence posture but needs to keep jabbing.

Waiting is pointless. Firstly you hold the interior lines so a quick KB operation against Baker Island still allows you time to respond to Allied moves elsewhere. The fact that so much time has been lost already has reduced to a certain extent the speed provided by interior lines. Secondly if your position is really weak in the DEI and you fear an Allied move, putting aside whether your concern is really valid in the first place, dithering over a Baker Island counter invasion does nothing to strengthen your self perceived weaknesses in the DEI. The KB would need to be in the DEI, not at Truk, and in a position to smash an Allied invasion before it even reaches the beaches, to provide any substance to your current defensive response in the DEI. And then what happens if there is no Allied move in the DEI for another 6 months? Answer you have adopted that static defence posture which I consider to not be beneficial to the Japanese cause.

The way to exorcise an enemy "fleet in being" strategy is to use one's own superior fleet in naval operations against valid targets. Then the enemy either does turn up with its inferior fleet to contest the operation, or vacates the field of battle to you and loses an important position as a consequence.

Alfred

Thanks for the follow up, Cribtop. The guns did indeed float off to fairy land on the wings of the giant damselflies....wow, wish I could get those damselflies to do dastardly things to my opponent:).

As to the ships and planes, the "how to" regarding their withdrawal is in the manual, although it has been modified somewhat over time. I'm up on that...it was just those land units. I hauled those coastal artillery guys all the way back from Pago-Pago (where they never fired a shot) to San Fran thinking that they had to be in a 9 port or with a major HQ, only to learn they would have just as easily disappeared while staying in Pago.

Thanks to you and Mike for filling me in.