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I'm at work and don't want to be here today. I'm so not focused.

On a football note, another Peyton Manning and Tom Brady showdown. Life is good and go Patriots!

On a model note, I got some good time in on the DD Yukikaze I'm currently building. Unfortunately, it's taking a long time with all the photo-etch and the need to paint certain sub-assemblies prior to moving on. I'm also working on a number of aircraft kits at the same time so that doesn't speed things up either. [8|]

On my Allied PBEM note, it looks like that game is over. I have had no contact whatsoever with my opponent since Dec. 18th. I just hope he's alright and nothing has happened to him. With that being said, it looks like Chickenboy and myself will start a game here in a few weeks with me as the Allies. I'm not sure if I'll AAR it or not, it will depend on the time commitment and I'm sure I'll be knee deep in action against Jocke over the next few months.

I've been spending my time going through as many AAR's as possible to try and glean information on campaigns during 1943 from both sides. It's been fascinating reading, but also overwhelming at the same time. There are so many possibilities and it's unlikely that countering them all is feasible, even with the shortened perimeter I've established. I'm really in limbo here until I can formulate a better picture of Jocke's likely intentions.

With the strong state of both our forces there should be some massive engagements upcoming. I just hope they occur within the next six months while I still have the numbers to inflict a defeat on the Allies.

Ugh, is it 17:00 yet so I can get home?

Think about this. It's what I would have done if I were smarter and had read more AARs a few years ago.

maybe instead of a static defense anywhere, you have a good mobile reserve and an intact KB. So when an invasion is coming, load up, see em out, and be ready to hit the beach after clearing space with the KB and surface forces. He gets forces on the ground, maybe even takes a base, and you have enough force to seal and even turn back the initial thrust.

He is good at invading quickly, then getting out. He does tend to use a LOT of ships to do it though. If you can read the leaves, get there early enough, then 50 ship TFs won't do so well.

Lots of sub warning systems and deep air search are your friends.

Before I start posting maps and such I thought I'd restate my philosophy for how I've chosen to play Japan this time around. Two major changes DaBabes Lite introduces influenced my strategy. With Japanese ASW being toned down and FLAK effectiveness increased I decided I would not mount any far flung invasions of Australia or India despite initial intentions to do just that. I just felt it wasn't in my best interests to risk capital ships to lucky torpedo hits or see the cream of my naval air eroded fighting over territory I could neither hold nor support adequately in the long term. So I decided on essentially a historic perimeter with a focus on defensive operations.

I hoped for a quiet 1942 and essentially got it. Despite an Allied lodgement in the Gilbert Islands there is no deep penetration of the perimeter anywhere. I think I was rather unlucky not being able to bring the Allied CV's to battle on two occasions in mid 1942, but poor logistics and maneuvering on my end ensured that the enemy CV's got away. I'm just not the kind of player to try and bring my opponent to battle over what I deem non-strategic operations for Japan and I've played accordingly. This has resulted in the Allies, and Japan for that matter, suffering almost no navy losses to date. 1943 will be different.

I have done little to encourage combat anywhere on the map other than China. I want to fight a defensive air war and not sacrifice planes or pilots in fruitless attritional air battles over Burma or Australia. Playing defensive as I am, conducting offensive air operations would only pad Allied A2A kills and increase the experience levels of my opponent's pilots for no gain. I also decided to focus aircraft R&D on mid/late war aircraft, so it was imperative to not get into an intense air war that would see me having to produce thousands of early war aircraft. I feel I'm now in position to contest future Allied air operations more on my terms, fighting where I stand the best chance of success. Success to me isn't winning every air battle, but making the cost high enough in terms of pilots and aircraft lost on the Allied side. Can it be any other way with Japan?

Burma always causes me problems and I still have no clue how to defend it adequately, but other areas of concern for me are Sumatra, the DEI and the Kuriles. I feel with Jocke's growing confidence in his other PBEM and my non-aggressive Japanese offensive gameplan he is setting his sights on a knockout blow sometime in mid/late 1943. However, despite planning on a non-aggressive expansion with Japan, that is not going to apply to my defence. I will attempt to counter all future moves in some form, but as soon as a vital area is threatened I'll respond with everything at my disposal. I want to keep the fleet intact for as long as possible, but if my interior defences can be established to the level I'd like prior to 1944, I will risk my naval forces to battle throughout 1943 if success means inflicting substantial losses on the Allies.

My base and fort construction has focused on areas close to Japan first, so the Kuriles, Bonins and Marianas have received the bulk of the attention. The danger is leaving the perimeter too weak and exposed to pose much of a barrier to the Allied advance. I just don't believe I can fortify everything, nor should I. The Allied player can always bypass any forward area of it's choosing, so the risk of overcommitting a defence too far forward is problematic. What the Allies can't ignore are bases closer to Japan. I didn't factor in the risk of a purely night strategic air campaign such as that faced by obvert, but if I can limit Jocke to having to conduct one I'll consider that a tactical victory. However, will I be able to get a defence set up to effectively counter is the question. However, if I allow bases that can support Allied fighter escorts to fall within range of the Home Islands prior to 1945, I will consider that a strategic failure on my part of monumental proportions.

I am fortifying Sumatra and the DEI to prevent easy access to the fuel/oil facilites of the SRA. I think a more direct approach will be attempted by Jocke this time around in threatening these areas. I will resist any incursion into Sumatra or the DEI in 43 with everything in my arsenal. Canoerebel's and more recently GreyJoy's Sumatran gambits are definitely on the table for this game before the end of 1943. Same will apply to the Kuriles, but other than a strong static defence I'm not sure how best I can conduct a counterinvasion doctrine in this theatre. My inattention to the Aleutians could steer Jocke in this direction as well, so I take the threat of a GreyJoy type operation seriously.

As for New Guinea, the Solomons, Gilberts and Marshall's I don't believe I'll invest much in defending. I want to encourage an advance in these areas by the Allies, but I also recognize that as my forces stand now, I'm making it far too easy for a rapid advance. However, Jocke's operations against Makin, New Caledonia and Luganville have me puzzled. It's clear he could be taking large areas under control for a song, but why isn't he? Of course he wants to build up his logistics and infrastructure for long term operations first, but considering my pathetic defences he could already be making greater strides. This makes me believe my fear of a knockout blow against Sumatra, the DEI or the Kuriles is on the table.

I also don't believe a static defence will work with Japan, but I do need to fortify key locations to deny their use in order to buy me the time to react with reserve ground forces and the shipping to move them within days of a landing to counterinvade. I think Jocke will bring the hammer initially to every invasion, but I also know he likes to land with only combat forces on the first landing. Catching the follow up support and supply operations will be key to defeating his future amphibious invasions.

I just wanted to get as many thoughts out there as possible to get a dialogue going and garner any suggestions or advice people may have to offer. Maps with more information will follow when I can put some together time permitting.

ORIGINAL: obvert

Lots of sub warning systems and deep air search are your friends.

This has been killing me so far. My search just hasn't given me the advance warning I need to be able to react quickly enough. The two missed opportunities I allude to in the above post are a direct result of poor intelligence on impending Allied operations. It must improve or I'm in trouble.

I'm kind of enjoying the game lately. Perhaps with 1943 soon upon us, I'm starting to anticipate the pace of the game picking up. That being said, the turn was a quiet one.

China:

A number of deliberate attacks are ordered for tomorrow. I have overstacked the hex 92 miles east of Kunming with three divisions in an effort to break the stalemate. I have mixed feelings about ordering a deliberate as opposed to a shock attack. I have come close to achieving 1:1 odds only once while launching deliberate attacks against this force. I am positive a shock attack would get 1:1, but the risk of trashing another division doesn't seem worth the risk. Bombing has had no impact on the defenders, but maybe the last three days of raids have used up whatever supply the Chinese had on hand.

The Chinese force (6 LCU's) in clear terrain northeast of Chungking have convienently moved into a Japanese controlled hex (one division) while an armoured unit has just occupied the hex vacated by the Chinese. The Japanese division is ordered to launch a deliberate attack and with the only retreat path now blocked, there's a good chance the six enemy LCU's will surrender. Bombers have been ordered to disrupt the defenders.

I've also ordered a deliberate attack against Chinese forces west of Paoshan, but I don't expect anything more than 1:2 odds. The purpose is to keep the pressure on and use up what Chinese supply is available.

I've been trying to LRCAP the remaining Chinese bases and troop concentrations in an effort to interdict Allied transports. So far I've not been able to locate the dropzones. Supply is getting in somewhere as the Allies are routinely losing transports to Ops losses.

Burma:

Allied movement out of Kalemyo indicated. Nine enemy LCU's are currently in the hex and the number of AFV's is over 500. Maybe a probe with a few Commonwealth armoured brigades, or a fake movement as Jocke is prone to do. I'm moving the 21st Division and a number of RF anti-tank units to a blocking position.

Production:

Tojo Ki-44-IIc advanced R&D to 1/44.

Thoughts:

In conjunction with my renewed interest and my assessment of the upcoming year I spent a few hours this turn buying out some units from China and changing a few bases in the Kuriles to General HQ. This will allow me to base restricted air units father forward.

I am moving a reserve division to Sumatra as well as a number of air units. I noticed I have too many aviation support units in the Solomons, so they will begin to redeploy to more important areas, namely the SRA. I'm basically concentrating my redeployment to cover the approaches to what I consider the most likely Allied routes of advance that would do me the most harm if lost in 43.

I'm also trying to consider the best location on the map to base my counterinvasion forces that has adequate facilities to support a massive sealift capabilty. The problem is finding a location that is out of range of Allied search, yet close enough to deploy within days of an amphibious assault against Sumatra, Java or the DEI.

Unfortunately, KB can't be everywhere. I'm going to have to redeploy the Combined Fleet at some point here, but I'm uncertain of the best location at the moment. There are just too many unknowns that prevent an ideal deployment until I get a clearer picture of Allied intentions. I fear no matter where I choose I'll be caught out of position to have an impact, as has been the case so far this game.

Working on the turn yesterday I turned off all base and fort expansion in the Home Islands. I was undertaking more than I thought and that probably explains why supply levels were dropping so consistently. Proving it will have to wait until I run tracker.

Looking at a number of bomber units in China and their aircraft fatigue levels, I found many to be quite high. Some of these airframes are in the high 70's, but not withdrawn for maintenance yet. No wonder I'm losing aircraft to Ops in droves. A nice feature would be to allow a player to set a maximum limit for airframe fatigue levels and once exceeded that aircraft would go directly into maintenance.

I started to redeploy some better air ASW assets to known areas of enemy submarine concentrations. The skill levels of some active air ASW units is too low so they have been withdrawn to quieter areas to train further.

Looking at a number of bomber units in China and their aircraft fatigue levels, I found many to be quite high. Some of these airframes are in the high 70's, but not withdrawn for maintenance yet. No wonder I'm losing aircraft to Ops in droves. A nice feature would be to allow a player to set a maximum limit for airframe fatigue levels and once exceeded that aircraft would go directly into maintenance.

That would be nice, but I'ld settle for having the average plane fatigue visible somewhere without having to open each air group up[:)]. I try to keep plane fatigue down to the 10-20 range.

China:

Success at last on the road to Kunming. The stalemate is finally broken and Japanese forces can now advance to within 46 miles of Kunming. Eight Chinese LCU's, of which four just retreated into the hex, are now blocking the road directly east of the base. I expect the four LCU's that were already occupying the hex to be large corps and dug in. I'll initially only contest the hex with a single division supported by all the artillery and 11th Army HQ. Japanese bombers will focus on targeting the defenders to reduce supply and then I'll overstack again and attack.

Interestingly the Allies have deployed 62 fighters to Kunming despite recon indicating field damage at 75%. I think it was an attempt to ambush bombers targeting the airbase since I've not been providing fighter escort. I didn't bomb Kunming today because I concentrated all bombers on ground attack mission in support of ground operations. I'm not sure whether to initiate sweeps next turn or wait to see if the fighters are withdrawn. If they stay, I believe that will signify Jocke drawing the line and actively contesting my operations in China and Burma moving forward.

Here's the AAR report showing the breakthrough:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ground combat at 71,48 (near Kunming)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 40838 troops, 488 guns, 160 vehicles, Assault Value = 1440

Defending force 13816 troops, 54 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 354

Japanese adjusted assault: 1173

Allied adjusted defense: 328

Japanese assault odds: 3 to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(+), experience(-), supply(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
1517 casualties reported
Squads: 27 destroyed, 67 disabled
Non Combat: 8 destroyed, 24 disabled
Engineers: 2 destroyed, 9 disabled
Guns lost 95 (38 destroyed, 57 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
2934 casualties reported
Squads: 214 destroyed, 12 disabled
Non Combat: 142 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 11 (6 destroyed, 5 disabled)
Units retreated 4

Defeated Allied Units Retreating!

Assaulting units:
116th Division
15th Division
13th Division
19th Tank Regiment
21st Mortar Battalion
23rd Army
2nd Ind. Mountain Gun Regiment
2nd Mortar Battalion
11th Army
10th Ind. Mountain Gun Regiment
52nd Ind.Mtn.Gun Battalion
1st Mortar Battalion
20th Ind. Mtn Gun Battalion

Defending units:
91st Chinese Corps
2nd Prov Chinese Corps
38th Group Army
3rd Heavy Mortar Regiment

Other actions in China went well. The six Chinese units now isolated in clear terrain northeast of Chungking are doomed. Here's the AAR:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ground combat at 78,44 (near Chungking)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 12842 troops, 111 guns, 71 vehicles, Assault Value = 445

Defending force 16696 troops, 52 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 370

Japanese adjusted assault: 420

Allied adjusted defense: 23

Japanese assault odds: 18 to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: experience(-), supply(-)
Attacker: leaders(+) [X(]

Japanese ground losses:
125 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 9 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled

Allied ground losses:
887 casualties reported
Squads: 8 destroyed, 102 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 19 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled

Assaulting units:
36th Division

Defending units:
59th Chinese Corps
76th Chinese Corps
Jingcha War Area
3rd Group Army
Red Chinese Army
14th Group Army

Even the attack on troops blocking the road to Paoshan were encouraging. Despite the odds, as supply dwindles these troops should suffer the same fate as their brethren near Kunming. AAR follows:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ground combat at 64,45 (near Paoshan)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 15509 troops, 186 guns, 245 vehicles, Assault Value = 510

Defending force 16273 troops, 105 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 442

Japanese adjusted assault: 199

Allied adjusted defense: 811

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 4

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(+), experience(-), supply(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
667 casualties reported
Squads: 2 destroyed, 57 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 12 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 12 disabled
Guns lost 23 (1 destroyed, 22 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
427 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 41 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 6 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Guns lost 9 (1 destroyed, 8 disabled)

Assaulting units:
Imperial Guards Division
1st Tank/B Division
5th Mortar Battalion
21st Medium Field Artillery Battalion

Defending units:
19th Chinese Corps
1st Chinese Corps
58th Chinese Corps

Thoughts:

The rest of the Pacific was quiet.

I think it's time to apply maximum pressure in China to force the issue before Allied air is committed in support from India or China proper. Japanese airbase coverage is not ideal for operations along the Burma/China border, but if the Allies do deploy air units in China at least that will only strain the supply situation further. It's going to be interesting to see how I can counter Allied bombers if they are committed from India. Until I see what the Allied fighters do I've grounded all bombers in China. I need to lower fatigue and have been meaning to do this since a few turns ago. The pause will also allow me to move additional fighter units forward now that the risk of interdiction of my bombers appears to be a threat.

I think Jocke's had enough with China and will look for ways to strike back somewhere. I fully expect another Allied operation soon because I just get a sense that something is up. It's nothing more than a feeling I have, but it feels...wrong.

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon

I think Jocke's had enough with China and will look for ways to strike back somewhere. I fully expect another Allied operation soon becuase I just get a sense that something is up. It's nothing more than a feeling I have, but it feels...wrong.

Well, you've demonstrated good intuition in the past so this is no time to ignore it. Good Hunting!

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

Well, you've demonstrated good intuition in the past so this is no time to ignore it. Good Hunting!

Only problem is I'm 0-3 trying to interdict with KB. I'm either out of position or late to the party. I'm trying to get my search maximized so I get enough warning this time to be able to do something about these hunches.

I forgot to post yesterday that the supply in the Home Islands dropped by another 7k. I went through the entire country and turned off any remaining expansion that I missed the first time through. I'm not loading any supply TF's and R&D repairs couldn't possibly be burning that much supply...could it? Stumped for now, but trying to address the problem.

In fact, it seems I was a little free and easy with expansion all over the map despite the clear indication of what that meant for supply usage from obvert's AAR. I've ordered the Empire to freeze all but a handful of expansion so I can get a better handle on usage. China's getting a little low in particular, but with the air force grounded for a few days that should help stabilize a few areas.

I also need to get more fuel to Manchuria, not only am I losing out on over 500 HI daily, but also the associated supply. That is why I'm starting to see warnings popping up all over the place in China. I think Japan's about to go on a supply usage diet! I will add though that that is how I operate. I feel the pinch in 42 at times because I do most if not all my expansion in 42, especially when I play a conservative Japan offensively. I always start to recover in 1943 in time for the fighting. I did increase R&D more than I ever have in the past, so I'll see if that is what is biting me now. Another reason I need to get the extra HI is because the Ha-45 engine will go into production in about two weeks. That will be an extra HI usage for engine production at 260/month. This will be offset somewhat by the scaling down of naval shipyard point production once the CVL Ryujo and CV Taiho are complete with the next 60 days.

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon

I forgot to post yesterday that the supply in the Home Islands dropped by another 7k. I went through the entire country and turned off any remaining expansion that I missed the first time through. I'm not loading any supply TF's and R&D repairs couldn't possibly be burning that much supply...could it? Stumped for now, but trying to address the problem.

At game start, IIRC you only produce about ~23K/day supply in the HI. So, if 30 factories repair ... not including what your troops in the HI use daily and whatever AC missions that you have. So, yes, it is really easy if you have a lot of expansion to use up that amount in a day ... really easy.

double post

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

At game start, IIRC you only produce about ~23K/day supply in the HI. So, if 30 factories repair ... not including what your troops in the HI use daily and whatever AC missions that you have. So, yes, it is really easy if you have a lot of expansion to use up that amount in a day ... really easy.

Most likely you're right Pax. In the past the amount of R&D repairs ranged anywhere between 3-8k per day, but with my increased expansion this time and a number of airframes within months of entering production the rate at which the R&D factories are repairing is much faster. I still like to get my expansion done quickly, but now with the experience firsthand of this particular supply crunch coupled with the non-productive HI and supply generation it shows me just how delicate a balance it is. I'm confident that if I can get this under control by the end of the year I'll still be in good shape. I just have to make more judicial choices in the future. Bring on crashing the Japanese economy by 1944!

And of course not just the AC factories ... you're also expanding engine factories, VEH, maybe the Tokyo Repair Yard, maybe some HI?, maybe some NSY? .... etc. It all adds up ...

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

At game start, IIRC you only produce about ~23K/day supply in the HI. So, if 30 factories repair ... not including what your troops in the HI use daily and whatever AC missions that you have. So, yes, it is really easy if you have a lot of expansion to use up that amount in a day ... really easy.

Most likely you're right Pax. In the past the amount of R&D repairs ranged anywhere between 3-8k per day, but with my increased expansion this time and a number of airframes within months of entering production the rate at which the R&D factories are repairing is much faster. I still like to get my expansion done quickly, but now with the experience firsthand of this particular supply crunch coupled with the non-productive HI and supply generation it shows me just how delicate a balance it is. I'm confident that if I can get this under control by the end of the year I'll still be in good shape. I just have to make more judicial choices in the future. Bring on crashing the Japanese economy by 1944!

Just don't choose Judge Judy!

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

And of course not just the AC factories ... you're also expanding engine factories, VEH, maybe the Tokyo Repair Yard, maybe some HI?, maybe some NSY? .... etc. It all adds up ...

I think that's why I'm so surprised Pax, this is purely airframe R&D and only around 20k of expansion on three aircraft production factories. I didn't expand any naval, merchant, armament, HI or LI factories in the Home Islands. My vehicle factories were expanded to 30 each in the first few months of the war and none since. Engine factories have been set for quite some time and only a 10k increase for Ha-33 recently begun.

Again, this is all R&D. Wow.

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

And of course not just the AC factories ... you're also expanding engine factories, VEH, maybe the Tokyo Repair Yard, maybe some HI?, maybe some NSY? .... etc. It all adds up ...

I think that's why I'm so surprised Pax, this is purely airframe R&D and only around 20k of expansion on three aircraft production factories. I didn't expand any naval, merchant, armament, HI or LI factories in the Home Islands. My vehicle factories were expanded to 30 each in the first few months of the war and none since. Engine factories have been set for quite some time and only a 10k increase for Ha-33 recently begun.

Again, this is all R&D. Wow.

What is your Vehicle production total now? I recently had to bump mine up from 170 to 180 to make sure I stay over the big hump coming later (I'm only in 4/42).

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

What is your Vehicle production total now? I recently had to bump mine up from 170 to 180 to make sure I stay over the big hump coming later (I'm only in 4/42).

Just like yours at 6x30 factories. I'm at 33k vehicle points in the pool. I shut off some production here and there, but not for extended periods. I've also been taking care of my armoured units and not running them into the ground. Granted they are only fighting the Chinese for now, but I didn't want to have them gutted on a regular basis prior to facing the Allied armour.