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...and the tone becomes rougher...[8|]

ORIGINAL: Kursk1943

...and the tone becomes rougher...[8|]

Kursk1943 - The Death rate in Germany is phenomenally low. Only 27 out of 11,302 cases, or 0.2%. That is orders of magnitude lower than Italy. Any insights you can share with us on that? My earlier chart showed that Germany has the highest number of Critical Care Beds per person in Europe (or at least of those countries listed), so that is probably part of it, but still - that percentage is amazing!

Please, most of the information here was definitive and dry with no personal touch. I also like when people let us know what it is like living in that situation because it makes it less of a dry statistic which can be manipulated.

The local store here has NO fresh eggs and the meat case, frozen vegetables, and other shelf spaces are sparse. We are quite a ways from the closest known case that I saw reported.

I did not go to the medicine shop across the street. You know the type, the one that advertises "beer, vino, spirits."

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

China getting back to business as worst of coronavirus outbreak in country appears to be over
11 Mar, 2020
https://www.rt.com/business/482814-chin ... ronavirus/


"The Coronavirus outbreak could have already “passed its worst,” the regional chief investment officer of UBS Global Wealth Management said as the number of new infections is declining in the country, but surges everywhere beyond it. Thus the Chinese economy may become “the first in the world” to get back to normal, the bank's official believes."

This puzzles me. By all accounts, the "heavy handed" lockdown measures used in China have had a significant effect on "taming" the virus spread in that country. If/when the majority of people start returning to work that would have to mean a great easing of the lockdown measures in place. The virus is not gone from China by any means. Only a tiny percentage of their population has been reported as having it.

My question for the group: Why does anyone expect the virus spread to not accelerate again when those lockdown measures are relaxed? I have to be missing some significant information because everything I've seen makes me expect the spread to pick back up again.

Right now, the main objective is to "dampen the curve" so that hospitals won't be overwhelmed by a sudden onslaught of cases. The thinking is that stretching the spread gradually over a longer period is better than a massive spike.

As far as later iterations or outbreaks, the thinking is that by then there will be much more knowledge and additional countermeasures that will help deal with it.

IE, we'd rather deal with 20,000 cases today and another 20,000 much later than 40,000 today and none later.

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Right now, the main objective is to "dampen the curve" so that hospitals won't be overwhelmed by a sudden onslaught of cases. The thinking is that stretching the spread gradually over a longer period is better than a massive spike.

As far as later iterations or outbreaks, the thinking is that by then there will be much more knowledge and additional countermeasures that will help deal with it.

IE, we'd rather deal with 20,000 cases today and another 20,000 much later than 40,000 today and none later.

I agree. Take one day at a time, it is rough when two or more hit you all at once.

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Ian, I regret you are disappointed! If you find this thread alarmist, don't go to the General Forum thread on coronavirus.

warspite1

There is one alarmist shock jock on the GD thread. One person on this thread quoted 7% mortality too - though he wouldn't respond when asked where that number came from. So I think most people on both threads are just average Joe's wanting to understand what is going on and, quite rightly and understandably, just seeking information.

ORIGINAL: warspite1

There is one alarmist shock jock on the GD thread. One person on this thread quoted 7% mortality too - though he wouldn't respond when asked where that number came from. So I think most people on both threads are just average Joe's wanting to understand what is going on and, quite rightly and understandably, just seeking information.

Italy is at 7.9% today (2503 of 31506)

Lord have mercy, don't use that kind of math!

First, there are a zillion unreported cases, making the number of actual cases (your denominator) radically under-reported while, in contrast, the deaths are a pretty certain quantity. Italy may end up with a higher rate than many other countries, but that method is highly inaccurate until final, reliable totals come in at some distant point in the future. Secondly, as the virus matures and progresses, the number of recoveries outstrip deaths more and more. Eventually, the mortality rate settles at some much lower point, currently projected by most estimates in the range of 3% down to something below 1%.

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Lord have mercy, don't use that kind of math!

First, there are a zillion unreported cases, making the number of actual cases (your denominator) radically under-reported while, in contrast, the deaths are a pretty certain quantity. Italy may end up with a higher rate than many other countries, but that method is highly inaccurate until final, reliable totals come in at some distant point in the future. Secondly, as the virus matures and progresses, the number of recoveries outstrip deaths more and more. Eventually, the mortality rate settles at some much lower point, currently projected by most estimates in the range of 3% down to something below 1%.

I'm just answering the question. "Where did 7% come from?"

Oh. [:D]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Oh. [:D]

"Jane, you ignorant slut."

"What is all this fuss I hear about the Corona Beer virus? Why are they shutting down the whole country when people could just stop drinking that beer??"

"Ummmm, it's the Coronavirus and you don't get it from beer...."

"Oh"

"Nevermind"

ORIGINAL: USSAmerica

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

China getting back to business as worst of coronavirus outbreak in country appears to be over
11 Mar, 2020
https://www.rt.com/business/482814-chin ... ronavirus/


"The Coronavirus outbreak could have already “passed its worst,” the regional chief investment officer of UBS Global Wealth Management said as the number of new infections is declining in the country, but surges everywhere beyond it. Thus the Chinese economy may become “the first in the world” to get back to normal, the bank's official believes."

This puzzles me. By all accounts, the "heavy handed" lockdown measures used in China have had a significant effect on "taming" the virus spread in that country. If/when the majority of people start returning to work that would have to mean a great easing of the lockdown measures in place. The virus is not gone from China by any means. Only a tiny percentage of their population has been reported as having it.

My question for the group: Why does anyone expect the virus spread to not accelerate again when those lockdown measures are relaxed? I have to be missing some significant information because everything I've seen makes me expect the spread to pick back up again.

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Right now, the main objective is to "dampen the curve" so that hospitals won't be overwhelmed by a sudden onslaught of cases. The thinking is that stretching the spread gradually over a longer period is better than a massive spike.

As far as later iterations or outbreaks, the thinking is that by then there will be much more knowledge and additional countermeasures that will help deal with it.

IE, we'd rather deal with 20,000 cases today and another 20,000 much later than 40,000 today and none later.

I fully understand the objective of “dampening the curve” and how urgent it is, even if I do wonder if we can dampen it enough to prevent the hospital ICU and ventilator resources from being overwhelmed. The “heavy handed” containment measures that China implemented to flatten the curve are the ONLY reason the infection rate is not still increasing there. If they remove those measures to allow the country to get back to business, there is nothing to prevent the infection rate from spiking again short of a vaccine or a mutation that seriously weakens the virus.

We’ve read that until a vaccine is developed, tested, produced, and administered, there is no way to stop the virus until we reach “herd immunity”. That’s the point where 40% - 70% of a given population has been infected and developed resistance or immunity to being infected again. China has reported around 82K infections so far. Assuming those numbers might be slightly under reported, let’s multiply that number x12. That would be 1 million Chinese residents infected. That is still only 0.07% if the 1.4 billion Chinese residents. There is still a loooooong way to go before they would reach the lowest threshold for herd immunity of 40%.

I have to be missing some critical information that allows others to think China is ready to get back to business since all my information says they can’t do that without relaxing their containment measures and they can’t do that without the infection rate increasing again.

Please help me understand what I’m missing.

I think this describes why we have to act now well:

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/18/we- ... -covid-19/

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

For those unable to read each post in this tome, please send a case of Jack Daniels to Makee Learn c/o General Delivery, Goosebump, Tennessee. Sedation.

It's a rainy day. I do appreciate all alcohol(I don't drink, but it's got other uses), dry beans, books, your good gold or your "scrap gold", women folk, domesticated fowl,....etc. etc.

ORIGINAL: USSAmerica
I fully understand the objective of “dampening the curve” and how urgent it is, even if I do wonder if we can dampen it enough to prevent the hospital ICU and ventilator resources from being overwhelmed.

I've been wondering the same. These sites may be of interest:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... virus.html

https://projects.propublica.org/graphic ... -hospitals

If the Coronavirus puts a lot into R&D then the world will need as many veterans of the virus as possible.

Other words, too much isolation may not be good for returns of this viral attack.

The problem with the reported death rate is what other problems do they have. There was a 21 year old Spaniard who died. He had Corona Virus 19 and leukemia. Which one killed him? If he did not have the leukemia, would he have died from the Corona Virus infection? If he did not have the Corona Virus infection, would he have died from the leukemia? That is the problem with reporting the deaths when there is another health issue.

As far as the person on the other thread reporting such a high death rate in the United States, he is the type of person who causes the panic. He is part of the problem and not part of the solution. He has been informed of the proper way to look at it and he refuses to change.