Oil Analysis
I ran a bunch of numbers. I'll try and make it make sense. Here's what's needed per month in Japan. I did not include Sakhalin as part of Japan because shipping is required to get it to Hokkaido. I did include Hokkaido even though shipping is required because it's just a 2 hex hop. If that is cut off, I have much more important issues to worry about. Here goes:
Note everything is per month.
Note that "refineries" means the amount of oil needed to keep the refineries at that location functioning for the entire month.
Oil in Japan: 34,200 (114*10*30)
Refineries in Japan: 315,600 (1052*10*30)
Oil deficit in Japan: 34,200 - 315,600 = -281,400
So, I need to make up a deficit of 281,400 oil to keep Japan's refineries functioning.
Here is what oil gets shipped directly to Japan (either from Shikuka or through Babeldaob):
Shikuka: 9000
Boela: 6000
Babo: 4800
Java: 7500
Total: 27,300
Remaining deficit: 254,100 (-281,400 + 27,300)
Oil shipped to Georgetown, Port Dickson, Saigon, Cam Ranh Bay or Hong Kong:
Medan: 13,200
Bengkalis: 12,000
Sumatra: 144,600
Miri: 53,400
Brunei: 6,000
Formosa: 2,400
Total: 231,600 - Keep that number in your back pocket for a bit. We'll need it soon.
China/Manchuoko/Korea/Thailand:
Oil:
Urumchi: 15,000
Korea: 1,500
Manchukuo: 16,500
Total: 33,000
Refineries:
Bangkok: 6000
Urumchi: 6000
Pt. Arthur: 36,000
Total: 48,000
I still have yet to liberate Sian and Lanchow (though the latter is close). You can see that there is more refinery capacity than oil production here. (Story of my life.) But, there is a significant amount of oil flowing into (and hopefully through) China from the SRA.
Oil flowing into China: 231,600
Oil produced in CMKT: 33,000
Total: 264,600
Refinery capacity in CMKT: 48,000
Excess oil milling around in CMK: 216,600
So, in theory, if the land oil line ever moves at full capacity, I should have 216,600 oil a month flowing from Fusan into Japan. That ain't happening yet but the trickle is growing. Let's keep talking theory.
If you look way up at the top of this babble, you'll see that Japan needs 274,100 oil a month to keep its refineries producing. Here's the shortage:
China land line: 216,600
Needed in Japan: 254,100
Shortage: 37,500 (-254,100 + 216,600)
Here's what that equates to in refinery capacity:
37,500/10/30 = 125 refinery capacity.
So, Pt. Arthur tends to horde fuel and oil (and resources). Right now, they have 1,362,774 oil on hand. I'm considering that a reserve. Let's say we take about 1,200,000 of it and ship it to Japan. That's about 32 months of keeping all the refineries in operation. I suspect that the oil flowing through China would end up going to Pt. Arthur and stopping there. That's still better than shipping it from the SRA. That's very interesting...
Last set of numbers, I promise! (At least, for now.

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On 31 October 1942, here was the oil situation:
Total on map: 2,525,314
On ships: 58,517
Grand total: 2,583,831
In Japan: 411,420 (15.923%)
30 November 1942:
Total on map: 2,490,866
On ships: 69,317
Grand total: 2,560,183
In Japan: 217,925 (8.512%)
That change in Japan in just one month is staggering. I'm going to pull the turns from the previous few months to try and see if there is a trend.
Anyway, babble mode off.
