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There are many factors that enter into this equation, but the most important is that Death Star won't be needed to escort the supply TFs for about a month. Half of the supply is still at sea and needs about that long to make it to the DEI. The escorting forces from the China/Korea TOO will therefore depart in about two or three weeks (in the meantime, I think there will be a major naval battle, but that's up to John more than to me). When the escorting TFs depart, Gunzan airfield will have been built large. As you note, I can commit combat TFs to the defense while the carriers are away. (We've gone through that routine before; each time, John has attacked the guarding combat TFs while DS was away and lost the ensuing battles, on the most recent occasion losing two and perhaps three BBs at Ningpo.)

if I remember right .. one reason for flak going away is supply .. a minimum supply level is required I believe for flak to be noted. In fact, I recall being advised that monitoring flak is a good way to determine supply status of a potential target.

Somebody comment?

Yes, that's right. Every Japanese player knows to monitor flak at Manila and at Singapore as an indicator of when supply might be low, thus warranting an attack.

I've been doing the same thing at places like Shanghai and Hong Kong. But in Canton it was weird. One day, John's AA was firing heavily. The next, nothing. Not anything. The change was so abrupt that I think it's likely he put his AA in Reserve mode, to prevent firing in order to preserve supply for the pending ground battle. (But I could be wrong: he may be out of supply.)

All right .. it has been awhile, but I am still lurking in this forum .

I am most interested in Tsinan .. if that is supply (-) I have to believe everything north of Fusan is starving or about to ..

John disappeared, probably due to a sudden work matter. I'm waiting for the turn, which I sent to him last night. It includes a general Allied deliberate attack at Tsinan (2450 AV vs. at least two IJA divisions and a mixed brigade, so tough). It should answer questions about his supply status and the viability of his northern China defenses.

ORIGINAL: Crackaces

All right .. it has been awhile, but I am still lurking in this forum .

I am most interested in Tsinan .. if that is supply (-) I have to believe everything north of Fusan is starving or about to ..

CR has effectively cut supply in southern Korea, but John can still bypass that block by shipping up the east coast to Kanko and Genzan.

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

ORIGINAL: Crackaces

All right .. it has been awhile, but I am still lurking in this forum .

I am most interested in Tsinan .. if that is supply (-) I have to believe everything north of Fusan is starving or about to ..

CR has effectively cut supply in southern Korea, but John can still bypass that block by shipping up the east coast to Kanko and Genzan.

I have yet to see activity on that side of the world .. either CR has no search arcs over there or the IJ are not floating anything that way ..
I suspect that up to now everything has been unloaded at Fusan .. If so .. it is kind of late to propagate supply at this point from Genzan it would take a lot to prime the pump so to speak
(From my experience moving supply from Alice Springs to Darwin .. I know different roads .. infrastructure etc)

John has four ports in NE Korea, two level one and two level three. I've considered bombing the two level threes....but my goodness, there are so many higher priorities for bombers right now. It is a target rich environment.

As for the DS and supply. John knows your tendencies and expects you to go on another supply escort mission. You say the convoy will not be ready for a bit, but not yet. That's fine. Why not pack up the DS , head south, and then sprint north after a few days? Bet you find a couple of surface combat task forces not expecting you to be home so soon.

As for the DS and supply. John knows your tendencies and expects you to go on another supply escort mission. You say the convoy will not be ready for a bit, but not yet. That's fine. Why not pack up the DS , head south, and then sprint north after a few days? Bet you find a couple of surface combat task forces not expecting you to be home so soon.

That is brilliantly devious!

That's a great idea, John. I'll use it.

Death Star is refueling now and is 100% on sorties (thanks to AEs), so it's good to remain on station for weeks to come. John is massing everything against Korea. He has an army 200k strong now from Keijo to Fusan. And KB East was sighted today nearing the Marianas, almost certainly joining the rest of the fleet in the Home Islands. He's massing for a big attack, so I like the idea of pulling a move.

He probably plans to lean heavily towards Korea. With his buildup there, I'll switch over to the defensive, at least temporarily, protecting Gunzan and probably the base to the east in the forest, plus possibly keeping a blocking position at Keijo (utilizing the 4x urban). Two divisions 100% prepped for Keijo are at Shanghai ready to load....but I'm not going to risk loading troops until security in this region is more clear.

2/15/45

Funnel Cakes: The situation in Korea is about to pop, requiring a larger and less legible map. Excuse the image quality but I think it helps tell the story.

Korea is where John is going to strike. I'll be ready (I think). And this may open up things elsewhere, so that I have a bit more freedom of movement. That could be significant, for reasons I'll detail another time.

One of the many oddities of this odd map is that the Allies have all kinds of shipyards forward now - Manila, Pescadores, Hong Kong and Shanghai. Lots of Allied combat ships have been repaired and are back at sea - the guys damaged in various battles near Ningpo, Fusan, etc.

And down at Manila, CV Lexington damage is down to 0/10/20. She can make 24 knots and is available for action if needed.

2/15/45

Fancy Pants: Hard fighting at Tsinan today gives some reason for optimism. I'd be really optimistic if I could devote all resources (air power!) here, but very soon everything will be needed to defend Korea.

It looks like low supply but forts ... maybe the multipliers are balancing out for now .. once forts gone .. units be gone ..

CR - BTW did taking Hwaiyin activate any planes or troops?

Do you have any available troops or plans for more airdrops?

Will your defensive shift also consist of building forts at Gunzan to at least a modest level? Or have you already bulit some fortifications there in addition to the lvl 7 airfield? Also, any chance you can occupy the woods to the SE of Gunzan and force John to move through the heavy terrain or around you using the open lanes where your 2E's can work him over - assuming he comes.

ORIGINAL: Flicker
CR - BTW did taking Hwaiyin activate any planes or troops?

Do you have any available troops or plans for more airdrops?

I'm not sure what the first question means. Activate whose/what planes or troops? I've never heard anything about Hwainan activing troops, so if your question is obvious to most folks, I'm clueless.

I have more paratroops available but no current plans to use them.

ORIGINAL: Simonsez

Will your defensive shift also consist of building forts at Gunzan to at least a modest level? Or have you already bulit some fortifications there in addition to the lvl 7 airfield? Also, any chance you can occupy the woods to the SE of Gunzan and force John to move through the heavy terrain or around you using the open lanes where your 2E's can work him over - assuming he comes.

Yes, I'm going to switch over to fort building as soon as the airfield reaches level 7 - a few more days.

Death Star will remain on station in the Yellow Sea for a couple of weeks or, if necessary, longer. The carrier TFs finished refueling today. All carriers and all combat ships at 100% sorties/ammo. So John will have to go through Death Star to really have a chance at mopping up in Korea.

2/16/45

I'm leaving town for a few days for a family funeral (not a sad one; more of a family reunion). I don't have time to post the usual map, but a few highlights.

Funnel Cakes: Allied fighters do a good job sweeping Moppo, scoring 2:1 or better in fighters downed. The Allied spearhead is pulling back in good order, thus far. Tomorrow fighters and about 50 B-24Js will target Keijo again. The enemy engineers seemed to repair most of the damage from yesterday's raid, which is troubling.

Fancy Pants: 150 B-24Js whacked Tsingtao (or however it's spelled) airfield good, destroying something like 40+ good fighters on the ground. The troops at Tsinan have pulled full supply, so they'll attack tomorrow. The attack is supposed to be preceded by sweeps and strikes by perhaps 75 B-24Js. At Canton, Allied bombardments continue to do good work, suggesting supply is indeed an issue there. Most of the Hong Kong reinforcements crossed the river without incident. The rest will cross tomorrow. The first probing attack will take place on the first full-supply-draw thereafter.

Malaya: The Allies take Kota Bharu.