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The screenshot says everything with its notes.

I will add the formulation of a new possible plan. As noted if Dan drops off his CV support after he passes Wake then I will use my faster CV TF to hit those AK/AP with a massed punch. If the CV/CVE stay attached as Cover (which I expect) then I will fallback and wait for another chance.

Seeing these carrier forces arrive means that I could actually move north and try to catch something in the Aleutians...

So that ASW TF between Midway and Wake was just the advance force for something much bigger - that was a close call - you could have been caught between two US Fleets.

I would have had the ability to escape but that would have been AFTER we had it out that day.  Any cripples and even damaged ships would have certainly been crushed by the two forces together. 

Just sent back the May 31st turn.

I plan to do a large update and industrial report after the next turn.

1st Situation Map:

2nd Situation Map:

3rd Situation Map

4th Situational Map:

June 1, 1944
Victory Points and Economic Summary

Victory Points:
 
Score
Japan    53,709  (Up 737 Points)
Allies   50,252  (Up 3,092 Points)
 
Strategic Losses  4,652 (Up 1,504)

For the third month in a row I GAIN victory points.  It seems a small victory to me.  Fully 50% of Dan’s point gain comes in the area of strategic losses.
 
Main features of the month were the continued attritional slugfest in Malaya—Sumatra—Indochina.  I think I pulled nearly 20 bang-up units from this area for another 100,000 troops saved.  This total is now nearly 200,000 troops in two months.   The capture of Ponape, Attu, Singora, and Alor Star were the main areas of ground action.
 
Ships Sunk[/i]
Japan   850—8,720 VP (up 126)—I lost only 17 ships during May.  Considering the heavy fighting in Malaya and my withdrawal from Saigon/Singapore, I continue to expect this to be far worse..  These were my losses:  4 AP, 4 AK, 2 TK, 1 DD, 1 APD, 3 MSW, 1 PG and 1 SS. 
 
Major Japanese Vessels Sunk to Date---CV Junyo, Hiyo, Hiryu, and Katsuragi, BB Fuso, Yamashiro, Mutsu, Nagato, Musashi, and Yamato, BC Kirishima, Haruna, and Kongo, 6 CA , 14 CL, 106 DD, and 45 SS.
 
Allies    1,246---14,087 VP (up 45)---Dan also lost ONLY 9 ships for the month of May.  Exact Losses are:  4 AK, 3 LCI, 1 PT, and SS Gar.  Not much of a haul…

Major Allied Vessels Sunk---CVs Enterprise, Lexington, Hornet, Wasp and Intrepid, CVL Langley, 5 CVE, BBs Colorado, West Virginia, Idaho, Tennessee, Arizona, Prince of Wales, Alabama, Oklahoma, North Carolina, Mississippi, BC Renown, 15 CA, 9 CL, 98 DD, and 58 SS.  

ASW Attacks for May:
ASW Task Force:  14
ASW Land-Based Air:  8  

These are attacks that scored damage on an Allied SS.
 
Manchukuo Garrison---8,622---Up 384---(8,000 Needed)
Political Points---2,577
 
Units Transferred: 
32nd Infantry Division picked up at Shanghai and taken to Amboina (Southern Area Army)
 
Industrial Report
Supply              1,555,859--Down 73,810
Fuel                  1,353,117—UP 138,410
Manpower       748 (1,339,523)—Down 6,400
Heavy Industry 14,452 (283,347)—HI Down 85 and surplus DOWN 45,044
Resources        15,065 (1,848,117)—Lost 570 Resources from Strategic Bombing…
Oil                    2,324 (325,143)—Gained 5 Oil Centers and surplus down 255,000

Mixed bag considering the Strategic Bombing.  Fuel looks lots better then where it was just short while ago.  Oil is way down because I have been using TRACKER to find it and load it for the Home Islands.  Dan is creaming my Resources but my surplus is this area only fell 4,000 over the previous month.   

I am losing about 2,000 HI a day right now off my surplus.  Naval Shipyards, Merchant Shipyards, and Repair Yards were partially closed starting June 1st.  I seek to find a balance in my HI and needs…
 
Shipyards
Naval               1,306 (9,490)—HUGE increase in stockpiled points.
Merchant          981 (2,195)—Good increase in stockpile.
Repair              1,520

ALL merchant shipping except anything with less then 100 days to go has been stopped.  I have left ASW Forces on to be completed and they are coming out at pretty good speed.  

Carriers           
Kasagi (112 Days--Accel)
Aso (185 Days--Accel)
Ikoma (224 Days)  
Ibuki (143 Days--Accel)
 
CL Sakawa            (123 Days—Accel)

Weapons
Armament        752 (4,457)-Nice increase of 45 to the industry and stockpile is growing.
Vehicles           179 (15,952)

I have redeemed my armaments industry and it is humming along now.  Am increasing Armament Industry in Manchuria.  Vehicles are in great shape and I will shut down some of my vehicle plants to conserve HI.
 
Aircraft
Engines             2,228
Assembly        1,747+(430-Rd)

My engines dropped a few points due to bombing.   Assembly fell nearly 80 as I shifted production in a number of areas.  Mainly this came from shifting Tony to Tojo and shifting other minor lines to Army Fighters.  COME ON FRANKS!
 
Engine Production
Mitsubishi         634(66)—Need 692—944 in Pool
Nakajima         1,277(54)—Need 1,184---1,298 in Pool
Kawasaki         237(23)---Need 258---147 in Pool
Aichi                80---Need 98---150 in Pool
 
Need more Mitsubishi but they are slowly building.  Like watching the Nakajima climb.  Will need all of them from Franks.
 
Plane Production
Fighters            Planes/Month (in Pool)
A6M2              0 (138)
A6M3              0 (0)
A6M3a            0 (183)
Oscar               0 (0)
Oscar IIa          0 (53)
Tojo                 165 (25)
Tony                0 (14)
Jack                 185 (158)
A6M5c            31 (173)
A6M5              256 (415)
Oscar III          53 (18)
Ki-61 Tony      258 (19)
N1K1 George  72 (120)
Frank 1a          263-Rd (08/44)
Frank 1c          0-Rd (12/44)
A6M8              19-Rd (06/45)
 
Naval fighters are in pretty good shape because I am producing three main models that dropped some as I shifted to more Army Fighters:  Jacks (down 20), A6M5 (down 49), and George (down15).  I will convert some Zero to George to help with the altitude issue concerning the B-29.  

The Army side continues to be the major problem.  I am bringing Tojo back online (up 56), expanding Oscar III (up 8) and keeping Ki-61 Tony steady while the research into Frank continues to expand at an excellent clip (up 53).  WISH I could have advanced the Frank a month!  August is a long way aways…
 
 
Bombers
Betty                0 (172)
Betty 2             40 (223)
Frances            101 (153)
Sally                 0 (17)
Helen               90 (254)
Lily                  40 (49)
Nick-a             0 (18)
Nick-b             0 (0)
Val                   0 (385)
Kate                 0 (161)
Judy                 98 (158)
Jill                    125 (180)
Grace               2 (0)                Just started production!  
Randy              0-Rd (07/44)
Peggy               113-Rd (7/44)        Advanced another month!  Now 3 months early.
Betty 2e           35-Rd (10/44)

My Bombers look excellent and I should be able to shut off some models for a while to save HI.   Grace will be an excellent addition since I still have a CV Force.  Peggy moving forward for a THIRD month is huge.  Think of all those Army Torps…  

I will shutdown Lily for Randy to come in.

Recon/Float
Emily                23 (0)
Alf                    16 (24)
Pete                             0  (97)
Pete A              0  (7)
Rufe                 11 (91)
Glen                 0 (31)
Dinah               0 (0)
Irving-R             24 (72)
Irving-S             23 (32)
Jake                 12 (4)
Babs                0 (0)
Dinah-3             52 (25)
C6N Myrt             24 (80)

I restarted Alf and Jake production.  Emily expanding slowly to help with numerous losses.  Myrts are coming in and that helps too…
 
Transports
Tina                  11 (4)
Sally                 0 (0)
Topsy               28 (21)
Mavis-L             0 (0)
Tabby             0 (19)

Transports did not get heavy losses this month so I have been refilling the units as quickly as I can.  
 
 

I just posted an aircraft upgrade question onto the War Room regarding new aircraft starting or getting ready to start production.

It certainly SEEMS like an invasion is about to occur! I make moves to exploit things if possible:





This is my 2,500th Post! Wow...

Here are the atoll specifics:

A couple of points:
 
1. Why are you splitting your CVs? It seems to me that you are temporising again in the hope of winning a small victory here ( covering both options of retreat ) but are, as a result, running a much larger risk of being defeated piecemeal.
 
2. Why the sole focus on retreating transports? Might it not be possible ( if you combine your CVEs, CVLs and CVs ) to tempt canoerebel into LRCAPing Wake ( I think flying more troops in by flying boat would do the trick ), reducing his CAP over his CVs and then racing in in order to provide either a CAP trap or actually get some good strikes in on his CVs.
 
3. Tied to the above.... If 800 AV is good wouldn't 1,000 AV be better? . Emily transport might be used to good effect here, no?
 
4. Sure you would take losses to bombardments ( but you would lose mostly airframes which are eminently replaceable ) but would it make much sense to place 200 army fighters on CAP of Wake in order to whittle down the enemy carrier-based LRCAP and strikegroups? At the very least it represents another opportunity to kill more of his pilots on terms which maximise the chance of your pilots surviving.
 
After Day 1 ( in which most of the 200 committed would be destroyed ) you could fly out the main units from Day 1 ( leaving only fragments behind ), fly in new units until you reach 200 planes on Wake, disband the fragments into the new units ( which would allow you to reconstitute the main bodies from Day 1 as pure training squadrons ) and have another day in which the enemy CV groups face 200 IJA fighter on the most favourable terms to Japan possible.

Remember, this invasion fails in 3 ways:
1. You have too many ground troops for him to take Wake.
2. He has too few fighters to defend his CVs from your CVs or
3. He has too few strike groups left to meaningfully attrit the defenders at Wake/threaten your CVs if they approach.
 
1 and 2 are the really prime reasons why it might fail and I think flooding Wake with IJA fighters to engage in favourable attrition of an isolated arm of the enemy aerial services is, at this time, quite a viable policy. Sure you'd lose some group to training for a few months as a result but they might actually achieve something worthwhile.

Re 3rd situation map.

NO Garrison on Ulithi [&:]

That is giving the Allies an easier opportunity to get land based fighters in place to support any attacks on the other occupied bases, relieving pressure on CV CAP.

OK. Lets see if this provokes anything...

My, my, my, I have a big choice to make while making and having lunch. I explain in the screenshot. Any armchair Admirals out there right now?

The BOLD and highly dangerous move is to strike SE at Flank Speed.

or

The SAFER move would be to fly in LR CAP to Wake and attack there.

Fuel state is serious but not yet critical...

Not to the American CVs!  We've climbed over the 50,000 view mark for the AAR.  Thank you guys.  I appreciate all the commentary, support, and interest.

Dan might be closing the gap in VPs, but you are 11K ahead in hits, and counting.

This is a great AAR John!

Option A

If you wait till they all form up at Wake, you might not be able to deal with all those TF. You know how the AI can sometimes send planes off to attack transports or your surface ships and leave the carriers alone. You are in the hit and run mode. Better to inflict damage now and live to fight another day.

Strike the transports, kill a load and then run. Better to maintain a fleet in being and drown a few thousand soldiers now and then than to go out in a blaze of glory and die once.
 
I would though definitely try to fly more troops into Wake by flying boat. You might as well try to make sure it stays a Japanese holding.

Without seeing Michael's comments I find myself in total accord. The order is for Option A.

Dan CANNOT move farther away from Wake with his CVs. To entice him the OTHER way I move two Chutai of Zeros and two smaller Daitai of Jills to Wake. The little 'AF Occupied' flag will appear and he SHOULD swing at the base or up his CAP. Those planes will be sacrificed to make him look to the west.

If it works...

If he stays where he is then I am 7 hexes away and he will have to react 2 hexes to come within strike range. My React is set to ZERO and no refueling is the order.

I cannot describe how nervous I am. Staying in the war rides on this action...