IJN June 27 update
A few days have passed since I've updated the IJN status of this mirror game.
It's been slow the last few days. I think there were two-count 'em-two combat actions for the combat report on the 26th. There have only been two major changes for today:
1. The number of ships in port at Pagan continues to mushroom. It's at 200+ ships now. Another visible TF is enroute to Pagan-taking a wide berth north.
2. My CV and SCTF TFs have been spotted South of the Marianas. He's moving his combined carrier fleet SW to intercept.
Joining the battle with HIJMS Combined Fleet:
Why here, why now?
I asked myself that question several times. The Japanese have been fortunate thus far. Incredibly, the airfields of Saipan, Guam and Tinian are serviceable for Japanese aircraft at this late stage of the campaign! Providence such as this cannot be overlooked! Clearly, the Gods of War are with us!
Allied LBA from the (overstacked) Pagan field will have no bearing on this fight, they're too far North. You can bet that when the time comes to attack Saipan that the Allied fighters will be flying LRCAP nonstop, thus making air attack on the transport shipping problematic if not impossible. If the Allied carriers were still intact, they'd be offshore 1-2 hexes (yawn) letting their superfluous CAP overlap Saipan, making the situation impossible. By attacking here and now, I (for sure) mitigate the impact of Allied LBA on this battle and (possibly) reduce the role of carrier-borne cover during the invasion sequence(s).
My
IJNAF LBA numbers have been plumped up considerably. Dribs and drabs of replacement or reinforcements that have arrived over the last 45 days have made a difference in quality and quantity. If I can apply sufficient numbers to this problem (his 'naked' carrier TFs), now's the time to apply it.
He's moving into a delightful "sweet spot", abreast the Marianas, within easy carrier range. I should be able to get off an attack from four air angles and a surface angle too.
The Allies are likely to brute force their way to the SW, rather than due South. The primary Allied concern now is to keep his carriers between my (spotted) force and the tender Amphibious craft around Pagan. Even if he thinks I'm going towards Truk to make the break into the open sea "behind" him, he can't afford to move his carriers to the SE-it would open up too much sea space between his carriers and their charges.
A likely course for the Allied CVTF will be within surface intercept range. Darn risky, I know, but it's worth a shot. I dispatch a 3 BB, 2 CA, CL and 5 DD TF at full speed with orders to intercept, maximum reaction. This is swinging for the fences, I know. I'd rather go out this way-having my surface combatants shredded in a surface combat TF than by getting picked apart whilest providing a target in a carrier TF. This way is much more 'Japanese'. [:D]
Every now and then one hits a home run too. A well-stocked IJN surface intercept of an Allied carrier force, particuarly at night, would be a dream come true. A story for the ages. It's OK to dream, isn't it?
The practical side of me wants to preserve some semblance of strength if this attack doesn't pan out tomorrow. I dispatch a reinforced battle group, centered around BB
Yamato and
Mushashi back to Babeldoab. Their guns would still be useful against a landing. I'll keep them as my 'ace in the hole' for a naval attack against a landing site.
I order all IJNAF LBA units to the airfields of Saipan, Tinian and Guam, the latter two with most of the attack aircraft available. I've got to make all hits count, so I keep the attack aircraft (Judys, Jills, Bettys, etc.) at a range of either 6 or 7, depending on their payload. The B6N2 Jills could engage out to 10 hexes with a torpedo (!), but they'd be the only attackers able to range that far. They'd be singled out and shredded against a CAP which must be in excess of 300.
I order all remaining CVs to a point indicated on the map. I've stripped the CVTFs of all heavy surface combatants and left them with only a few escort DDs. Why? I'd rather the CAs and BBs be used offensively. Against a superior force, a BB or CA escort will not provide much AAA help for the carriers anyways, likely being just another target. In this case, just another target that never gets to fire its big guns in anger.
All told, some 787 IJNAF combat aircraft will greet the Allied carriers near the Marianas.
The accountant side of me-the one that wants to win this mirror game on points-realizes this is a dumb move. The smart move would be to dump all of the carrier aircraft at Truk or distributed amongst the Marianas, take the carriers and flee to the corners of the map. There, I would hope that I can 'run out the clock' against his searching carrier hunters. Maybe disband them in port altogether to ensure that a lucky Allied SS doesn't take another chunk out of one.
I do want to win this game, so I did grapple with this approach for some time. This attack is a massive roll of the dice on my part. If I lose my carriers, I'll be essentially where he is as the Japanese in our other game. I'll have given up my points advantage that I should be clinging to. Losing several hundred combat aircraft in this manner may also bode poorly for my points total(s). But if I should connect on this 'haymaker'....Well, that's why we play the game.
'nuff said. Once more into the breach! BANZAI! BANZAI! BANZAI!
